Russian invasion of Ukraine

[zealo]

Anyone think Prig will completely flip and try to ally with Ukraine? Would Zelensky accept him if he did?

Don't think the Ukrainian position of wanting to capture Prig and ship him off to the Hague to stand on trial for war crimes and various atrocities has changed, but the distraction this is about to cause the Russian army while they're busy trying to break through their lines is likely welcomed by them nonetheless.

[Iphie]

Well, if this is true then this was pre-meditated:

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/stat...38798691115009

[Gaidax]

Anyone think Prig will completely flip and try to ally with Ukraine? Would Zelensky accept him if he did?

He won't, don't make mistake - Wagner aren't going to be friends with Ukraine. What happens now is internal power struggle finally reaching breaking point.

[AntiFascistVoter]

I checked with some smart people. It is not morally wrong to root for a civil war between nazi factions. Or similar in the case of Putin and Wagner.

[Gabriel]

I checked with some smart people. It is not morally wrong to root for a civil war between nazi factions. Or similar in the case of Putin and Wagner.

An angel descending from the Heavens telling me I'm going to hell for rooting for war between Russian military groups wouldn't stop me.

[Northern Goblin]

Well, whatever's going on, it has Lukashenko flying to Moscow on his private jet right on the stroke of midnight.

[Biglog]

I have been wondering when this would happen. Wagner has been bashing Russian military leadership openly for many months. Anyone else that had done a tiny fraction of that would have probably had an accidental fall from a tall building, as is usually the calling card. So it was fascinating that because of Wagner's relative success in Ukraine, the Russians allowed them to persist despite their power growing. Now it seems like that power battle might be coming to a worrisome head.

[enigma77]

Apparently military units in Moscow are on fire.

[postman1782]

Apparently military units in Moscow are on fire.

So the coup is happening? Bout time.

[Iphie]

Apparently military units in Moscow are on fire.

On...fire?? As in shot at and destroyed? Or set on fire? Source?

[enigma77]

On...fire?? As in shot at and destroyed? Or set on fire? Source?

Just a video on reddit allegedly showing some shit on fire in the "Moscow Region". Could be nothing.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/new/

[Edge-]

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/s...60624335228928
https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/st...58032339025926
https://twitter.com/RealMiBaWi/statu...64069402075137

Weirdly there's a lot of video of what appears to be the same two vehicles from different folks around Moscow.

[enigma77]

Allegedly fighting occured on the Rostov-Moscow highway and Wagner won, the National Guard fled.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV...y_in_the_area/

[Edge-]

I feel like we need to remember just how much misinformation and propaganda was spread early on especially, but will likely ramp back up with these events.

Trust but verify, double check information, drink lots of water for all the heaping grains and piles of salt that we'll need to take with a lot of this informatoin.

[Jastall]

This feels like a scenario you see in a comedy, where two idiotic villains start by calling each other names and then end up in a fight so that the hero can accomplish his goal.

Doubt Prig has nay hopes of winning this one, but Ukrainian forces will at best use the help and at worst get a laugh out of this whole farce.

[enigma77]

Go to bed now and have something exciting waiting for me when I wake up or stay up all night and keep refreshing reddit etc?

Hmmm

[Gaidax]

Go to bed now and have something exciting waiting for me when I wake up or stay up all night and keep refreshing reddit etc?

Hmmm

There is a 1000 kilometers between Rostov and Moscow.

It will take at least half a day from now for real deal to begin and that is IF Wagner beeline to Moscow completely unopposed top speed.

[enigma77]

There is a 1000 kilometers between Rostov and Moscow.

It will take at least half a day from now for real deal to begin and that is IF Wagner beeline to Moscow completely unopposed top speed.

That's a good and insightful point, thank you and good night

[Gaidax]

That's a good and insightful point, thank you and good night

Of course, at any point between now and then - Prigozhin or Putin or Shoigu may get popped. But barring any surprises, this will take time to play out.

The biggest news (aside from assassinations) that may happen is army units joining Wagner or at least not opposing. There is a decent chance of that.

[Warning]

How far away from internal Russian purges are we now I wonder? I believe it won't be long until the classic rhetoric of "we were betrayed from within" comes out as the only justification for Russia losing the war in Ukraine, and some of the high ranking Russian officials are going to be losing their heads.

There is clear animosity between various groups of Russian forces. The Russian Ministry of Defense has tried to assume control of Wagner forces and been rebutted by its leader Prigozhin. At the same time Kadyrovs chechens are at odds with Wagner, and a Russian commander, who was recently humiliated by Wagner and forced to apologize for shooting at them is now claiming that Wagner sold out the Chechens and got them hit in the recent HIMARS strike that wounded one their leaders.

Prigozhins Wagner has meanwhile backed out of the fighting and is openly giving interviews asking to be assigned to defend Belgorod, while also talking about paying Shoigu and Gerasimov a visit if they won't come down and get their hands dirty. It seems to me that he's either going to end up dead or in control of Russia, given that he's fairly popular and surprisingly levelheaded and pragmatic, for a murderous psychopath.

Starting to feel like this wasn't too far off as far as predictions go. Lets see how this plays out.