Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Kallisto]

That's part of it, yeah.

With how fast this has moved, it was not some spur of the moment thing. This was preplanned.

This was certainly preplanned. Yesterday (22nd) Wagner people were phoning home telling their loved ones to stay away from important areas.

I should also point out that 22nd is the anniversary of Operation Barbarossa. Coincidence that everything is happening around that anniversary.

[Templar 331]

It's kind of sad that it's easier to invade your home country than the one you've been invading for a year.

[Corvus]

It's kind of sad that it's easier to invade your home country than the one you've been invading for a year.

Certainly helps when you have no troops left to defend your home country.

[Kathranis]

So, whether the coup fails or succeeds, isn't losing Wagner a crippling blow to Russia's efforts in Ukraine? Well, they were already crippled, but y'know.

I wonder if Wagner might be cutting deals with another bidder to affect a regime change, or if they're just fed up with being sent into a mismanaged war.

[Kallisto]

Certainly helps when you have no troops left to defend your home country.

Also doesn't help when your own defenders are also waiving Wagner through.

[Benggaul]

So, whether the coup fails or succeeds, isn't losing Wagner a crippling blow to Russia's efforts in Ukraine? Well, they were already crippled, but y'know.

I wonder if Wagner might be cutting deals with another bidder to affect a regime change, or if they're just fed up with being sent into a mismanaged war.

If random comments are to be believed the rest of the army pretty much just let Wagner through more or less unhindered. I'm thinking his goal is to get Shoigu and his lot ousted and himself installed as head of the army and then just resume the attack on Ukraine. Pure conjecture, of course, but his comments leading up to this make me think it's likely.

Also read that another column was heading towards Moscow, though not entirely sure how much truth lies in that.

[Kathranis]

Also doesn't help when your own defenders are also waiving Wagner through.

I mean, hell, the rear defenses in Russia have to be spread thin and are probably even less experienced and less armed than the mobiks on the front line. I'd be scared shitless if I were facing down a Wagner tank column.

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I'm thinking his goal is to get Shoigu and his lot ousted and himself installed as head of the army and then just resume the attack on Ukraine.

Maybe, though now that they issued a warrant for Prigozhin's arrest that might be kind of a difficult trick to pull off. I'm also not sure where the money in that would be, given their status as a PMC, but then PMCs are technically illegal in Russia so he might be looking for some sort of legitimization?

[Mhyroth]

Something is about to go down..

[Benggaul]

Maybe, though now that they issued a warrant for Prigozhin's arrest that might be kind of a difficult trick to pull off. I'm also not sure where the money in that would be, given their status as a PMC, but then PMCs are technically illegal in Russia so he might be looking for some sort of legitimization?

Yeah, I read that, but who ordered the warrant? Was it Putin himself? If so then yeah my idle conjecture doesn't hold much water, but otherwise, given the language he used when talking about Putin ("It's not Putin's fault! He was lied to by his generals!") I could see this as him trying to prove himself by ousting the "traitors" as a means of currying favor to replace Shoigu. Also given that it's an army of criminals that have essentially just been thrown into the meat grinder for practically nothing, yeah, legitimization might also be a goal?

Again, all of this is really just a thought experiment until we see how things pan out (and how much of what we're seeing/reading is accurate), but I don't see this as Prig trying to overthrow the government or attack Putin or anything more than what he said he was going to do--take out the generals who have been screwing him and his men over.

Either way, bad for them, good for the rest of the world. Even if this is all over tomorrow it's a boon for Ukraine.

[Elder Millennial]

I am wondering about 3 things, in this order.

1. Where is Putin? How is it that he hasn't made an appearance to calm this down or to at least create the appearance that things are under control?

2. What the fuck is Beijing thinking looking at this shitshow? Let's be honest they are the only ones that can reign in the Russians at this point. Russia spiriling into civil war is not in their best interest. It will make the politics of the whole region and the economy of central Asia a hot mess.

3. What the people at Langley/White House are thinking looking at this? I'm sure there are a whole bunch of analysts losing their shit trying to make sense of this.

Whatever the outcome of this will be, and personally I do think Prigs will be reigned in....one way or another, the damage is already done. Russia just had military mutiny. Any student of Russian history is going to start counting down the clock until everything falls apart. This is will have consequences. Consequences that will likely escalate.

[Bluespiderman57]

Jesus, I doubt Wagner will actually reach Moscow, but I hope they do. It would be so appropriate.

“History Doesn’t Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes” – Mark Twain

It just seems right that the third Rome falls in a similar way to the first. To their own mercenaries.

[Benggaul]

3. What the people at Langley/White House are thinking looking at this? I'm sure there are a whole bunch of analysts losing their shit trying to make sense of this.

What's there to make sense of? It seems pretty cut and dry to me. Prig's been saying for AGES now that he and his men have fucking had it with the way they're being used as cannon fodder with no support and they were pushed past the breaking point. Now the criminals are going after the guards who are understaffed.

[Corvus]

The Prig is in Rostov with a general they captured. Russia does have thousands of those though.

[Elder Millennial]

What's there to make sense of? It seems pretty cut and dry to me. Prig's been saying for AGES now that he and his men have fucking had it with the way they're being used as cannon fodder with no support and they were pushed past the breaking point. Now the criminals are going after the guards who are understaffed.

Make sense of in the sense that how can be this milked for everything it's worth.

Rostov is a logistics hub. The main Russian logistics hub into the Donbass.

Wagner has just effectively cut off the Russian army in Ukraine from Russia.

There are a lot of weird implications to this.

[Corvus]

It's all bit reminiscent of an event in ancient China where it was illegal for a general to be late, the penalty being death. Which was also the penalty for rebellion. One general, realising he was going to be late went, screw it, and started a rebellion because if he failed the outcome was the same but success meant he lived.

The Prig kind of got backed into the same corner which you really shouldn't do to someone with am army .

[Benggaul]

Make sense of in the sense that how can be this milked for everything it's worth.

Rostov is a logistics hub. The main Russian logistics hub into the Donbass.

Wagner has just effectively cut off the Russian army in Ukraine from Russia.

There are a lot of weird implications to this.

Oh then you don't really mean "make sense of" so much as "capitalize on".

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The Prig kind of got backed into the same corner which you really shouldn't do to someone with am army .

And you really shouldn't do it when your own army has it's collective hands full and hasn't really proven to be much more effective.

[Corvus]

The Prig in Rostov with 2 generals, one the deputy minister of defence, the other the deputy of military intelligence.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/s...988129281?s=20

Hard to tell if prisoners or not. Either implication is big.

[Fantomen]

Prig will likely pull out of Ukraine while trying to retain Crimea.

No, if Prig is in a postion of power, so he can order a pull out from Ukraine, he will pull out from Crimea to, to gain wests "blessing" for his new regim as President, or alternative Putin is still President, but Prig the Prime Minister, de facto hold the power.

Prig want wests "blessing" no more sanction, west legitimizes him by acknowledge he is the new dictator of Russia.

[s_bushido]

So...did a civil war just start in Russia because a PMC wasn't properly supported in its efforts to murder/rape people in the country they were invading? Fascinating.

[Corvus]

So...did a civil war just start in Russia because a PMC wasn't properly supported in its efforts to murder/rape people in the country they were invading? Fascinating.

It's more that Wagner was sick of being used as cannon fodder and the russian mod was trying to steal Wagner from the Prig and use them as cannon fodder again.