Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Gorsameth]

Prig wants war moreso than Putin does, he lacks the capacity currently to fully wage it.

However this current civil conflict is creating a void in Ukraine. So he'll likely consolodate back to Crimea before trying again once the situation in Moscow is resolved.

Crimea can't be held without the land bridge. Your stuck on an island. the only way off to Russia (the bridge) will absolutely get destroyed and then everyone on said island is essentially dead.

[Corvus]

You know what we aren't seeing in Rostov? Protests. No one cares enough about pootie to make any fuss.

[Gaidax]

You know what we aren't seeing in Rostov? Protests. No one cares enough about pootie to make any fuss.

There are some, actually, but it's not out of love to Putin, but out of fear that MoD may decide go ham and bomb the city after Putin's speech.

[Gorsameth]

You know what we aren't seeing in Rostov? Protests. No one cares enough about pootie to make any fuss.

The Russian people have long since learned the best thing to do is sit quietly in a corner and see who wins, then declare you always supported the winner to begin with.

Anything else has to much risk to end up with you shot or living a short life in Siberia.

[Gabriel]

Very unlikely, people here are dreaming if they think Prigozhin would pull out of Ukraine. At most what could possibly happen is him going back to pre-2022 state if that.

He built his character as a strongman nationalist, he's definitely not going to give up Crimea or Donbas.

It isn't up to him tho.

This whole thing has fucked Russia's war effort in the Donbas + everything south of Donbas including Crimea in the ass. There is 0 chance that Prig allows Russian logistics chains to continue operating through the Rostov area now that the Russian MoD declared him enemy of the state. The whole Russian front in Ukraine just might collapse if this thing keeps escalating and word gets through that there won't be further supplies coming.

Trying to take Volgograd has historically not gone well...Just ask the Germans. XD

Good... Good...

[SAY HER NAME]

Very unlikely, people here are dreaming if they think Prigozhin would pull out of Ukraine. At most what could possibly happen is him going back to pre-2022 state if that.

He built his character as a strongman nationalist, he's definitely not going to give up Crimea or Donbas.

This is even funnier tbh. Imagine starting a war, getting couped because you are doing so badly and then continue the war.

[Gaidax]

It isn't up to him tho.

If he wins, it is.

As much as this is good news for Ukraine, I think some are living in a dreamland if they think Crimea and Donbas just going to roll over.

IMO, it would be a great victory for Ukraine already if they manage to roll back the time to 2022, without some more bullshit iike that dam happening. (Looking at you nuclear power plant).

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This is even funnier tbh. Imagine starting a war, getting couped because you are doing so badly and then continue the war.

The problem is that time for negotiations is over. If he manages to win, he won't pull out and Ukraine won't accept anything less than that.

At the very best what may happen is that war will continue another half a year, until new Russian leadership cobbles up some deal with Ukraine which will leave neither side happy. That is, of course, if Prigozhin even makes it and does not go full pepega on nationalist juice.

[Gabriel]

If he wins, it is.

As much as this is good news for Ukraine, I think some are living in a dreamland if they think Crimea and Donbas just going to roll over.

IMO, it would be a great victory for Ukraine already if they manage to roll back the time to 2022, without some more bullshit iike that dam happening. (Looking at you nuclear power plant).

Ukraine isn't going to give Russia a breather just because they caught a case of civil war. If Prig isn't killed and Wagner pacified in the next week or so, the Russian forces in Ukraine are either going to defect or starve.

[Corvus]

Wagner seems to have shot down a russian air force transport plane.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...286222850?s=20

[Northern Goblin]

There is no point in Prig falling back to Crimea. Wagner already has Rostov and rumors have it they are taking Volgograd as well. Going back to Crimea is a death sentence.

I mean on the Ukranian front, not the Russian one.

[Gabriel]

Russian military helicopters are bombing fuel depots held by the Wagner Group in the Voronezh region.

Lmao.

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I mean on the Ukranian front, not the Russian one.

Could be, but I don't believe so. Crimea is still a death trap once the Kerch bridge gets blow up. It is absolutely the last place to hole up in.

[Northern Goblin]

Could be, but I don't believe so. Crimea is still a death trap once the Kerch bridge gets blow up. It is absolutely the last place to hole up in.

Agreed, but by the time this civil war in Russia is resolved, it might be the only bit of Ukranian territory they still hold.

Prighozin isn't looking to end the war, he thinks he can fight it better than Shoigu.

[Dontrike]

Haven't seen these small clips posted around, so here's a few that's been floating on imgur.

[George]

MoD helicopter shot down by Wagner forces in Voronezh oblast.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/sta...80854487060480
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status...29345967972352

Russian Il-22M communications aircraft (reportedly RF-75917) was shot down by Wagner forces in Voronezh Oblast.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status...42143280234496

[alach]

Russians bombing Russia on Russian soil.

Something about a military convo moving north on the M2 to Moscow. Can anyone confirm?

[enigma77]

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/16...994752/photo/1 many private jets are leaving moscow

the rats scurry away

[Warning]

Agreed, but by the time this civil war in Russia is resolved, it might be the only bit of Ukranian territory they still hold.

Prighozin isn't looking to end the war, he thinks he can fight it better than Shoigu.

He does think that and probably he can, but he won't be in the same situation Shoigu was at the start of the war. The Russian armed forces are in no way ready to continue this war for much longer. He would need to stabilize his new government, which means keeping a large amount of troops around.

He would also need full mobilization to possibly win a war in Ukraine and that would be a huge problem to do. It doesn't seem pragmatic to try when your power is barely established. Honestly Crimea is kind of a hot potato for him, I think he might even prefer it if Ukraine took it now while he's not in charge so he could blame it on the previous regime, because otherwise he'll have to continue a losing war in order to not seem weak by giving it up in negotiations.

Of course that's all assuming he survives this.

[Strange One]

Zelensky speaks:

“Everyone who chooses the path of evil destroys himself,” he said.

“Who sends columns of troops to destroy the lives of another country and cannot stop them from fleeing and betraying when life resists.

“Who terrorises with missiles, and when they are shot down, humiliates himself to receive Shahed drones.

“Who despises people and throws hundreds of thousands into the war, in order to eventually barricade himself in the Moscow region from those whom he himself armed.

“For a long time, Russia used propaganda to mask its weakness and the stupidity of its government. And now there is so much chaos that no lie can hide it.

“And all this is one person, who again and again scared by the year 1917, although he is able to result in nothing else but this.

“Russia’s weakness is obvious. Full-scale weakness.

“And the longer Russia keeps its troops and mercenaries on our land, the more chaos, pain, and problems it will have for itself later.

“It is also obvious. Ukraine is able to protect Europe from the spread of Russian evil and chaos. We keep our resilience, unity and strength. All our commanders, all our soldiers know what to do.

“Glory to Ukraine!”

[Mhyroth]

Went to sleep last night with a "Huh, something could be happening here."

Woke up today to "oooooooooooh shit!"

Kinda miss certain posters not being here to see their garbage takes on all this.

The biggest Belgian Reddit is a shitshow full of garbage right now. Most people say it's CIA, "should we help Wagner with military aid" etc.

I knew some Belgians are stupid, but the takes over there are hilarious.

[tehealadin]

Well things just took a very interesting turn. Wonder how this will play out. Could it really be the end of Putin? It is my understanding that many oligarchs have been building their own private armies. If Mr Wagner (I forget his name) is able to persuade enough of the right people, who knows where that could lead. Interesting times indeed.