Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Joszef Kiprich]

It's The Hague, not Hague, just to be nitpicking.

[Northern Goblin]

Lukashenko's press team is claiming he's negotiated a proposal with Prighozin to cease movement and work on steps to de-escalate.

[Kreuger]

Unless Wagner confirms what Lukashenko claims im pressing doubt on that

[Gaidax]

Lukashenko's press team is claiming he's negotiated a proposal with Prighozin to cease movement and work on steps to de-escalate.

Prigozhin denied this. He posted there were negotiations, but unsuccessful. And he did not receive any proposals from Lukash.

[Northern Goblin]

Unless Wagner confirms what Lukashenko claims im pressing doubt on that

People are saying Prig is denying it, but I've yet to see credible sources on that part.

[Biglog]

In Rostov the local police blocked the roads *for* Wagner. While the first thought is to poke fun at Russia's current infighting, this is also both a very dangerous time globally and the long-term outcome of this is worrisome.

A lot of conspiracy theorists worry overtime an E4-B Nighthawk takes off thinking it's a sign of impending WW3, when those being in the air is a normal common thing that happens almost daily. But this morning there is actually a CAP and tanker flying constantly over Washington DC. That is not normal, and goes to show DC is very concerned about the instability in Russia today. Desperation is dangerous and things could get out of control there more than it already is quickly.

The second concern is what the fallout of this is no matter who "wins". If Wagner gains full military control, they are more extreme and violent than the Russian MOD. It would essentially eliminate any hope of a peace plan. And the chance of escalation with strategic or tactical WMD goes up a lot. If Putin retains control, there will likely be a a wide purge of anyone with questions about their loyalty along with a strong solidification of power. A Putin win at least keeps the remote possibility of a peace plan open. But Putin or Wagner may say 'the gloves are off now in Ukraine' after all this. So there are problems on the horizon both for Russia and how the outcome impacts Ukraine either way this pans out.

[Iphie]

How? I mean if prig stops now he's dead, unless putin steps down or shoigu and gerasimov are replaced, and none of those things seem likely.

[Kreuger]

Looks like Prig denies it with a new audio message

[Gaidax]

How? I mean if prig stops now he's dead, unless putin steps down or shoigu and gerasimov are replaced, and none of those things seem likely.

Yes, I think the opportunity window for this whole thing closed the moment Putin made a speech. Now it's either he goes through with this or he's done.

[zealo]

Neither Prig nor Putin will get shipped to The Hague no matter the outcome of the gamble Prig has taken. Ukraine might have if they could clap either in irons, but not Russia.

That whole institution is a far too western one for it to be acceptable to Russia with the sort of relations they have with the west, and there's no waiting for those to warm when the loser would need to deal with his defeated opposition more expediently.

One of them being put against a wall with bullet between their eyes is the only likely outcome.

[Gaidax]

Neither Prig nor Putin will get shipped to The Hague no matter the outcome of the gamble Prig has taken. Ukraine might have if they could clap either in irons, but not Russia.

That whole institution is a far too western one for it to be acceptable to Russia with the sort of relations they have with the west, and there's no waiting for those to warm when the loser would need to deal with his defeated opposition more expediently.

One of them being put against a wall with bullet between their eyes is the only likely outcome.

Prigozhin would likely end in a ditch if he loses.

Putin may get away with Gorbachev treatment, where he will stay on as a puppet leader with a gun to his head for another half a year to officially and orderly transfer power, then retired and being told that if he does as much as opens the door of his home to go outside - he and his family are dead.

There is importance in Russia for these things, the leaders are to be respected.

[Joszef Kiprich]

While the ICC is a western thing, which even the US doesn't recognize (afraid to deliver Dubya to them) the ICJ is an UN institute, which means that as a member, Russia acknowledged it as an international court.

[Gorsameth]

Yeah any hope for this being resolved diplomatically ended the moment Putin made his speech declaring Prig a traitor. His life is forfeit and he knows it, he wins and deposes Putin or he dies. And I imagine the loyal core around him similarly knows that they are all-in.

[Biglog]

Pretty skeptical about the report that Prighozin's going to just turn around and go back to the front now, and everything will be ok. It's more likely to be disinformation from the Putin side. But if true, not sure what Prighozin is thinking. Putin isn't going to just let attempting a coup go. Wagner surely realizes they will get eliminated the instant they turn their backs, or if they don't they should.

[Northern Goblin]

Pretty skeptical about the report that Prighozin's going to just turn around and go back to the front now, and everything will be ok. It's more likely to be disinformation from the Putin side. But if true, not sure what Prighozin is thinking. Putin isn't going to just let attempting a coup go. Wagner surely realizes they will get eliminated the instant they turn their backs, or if they don't they should.

Prig has put out a voice note on his telegram stating that they're going back to their camps.

He's daring Putin at this point, either Putin continues and we get conflict, or he backs down the legal case, his authority is destroyed.

[Gaidax]

Big mistake.

[Liftbrul]

Prig you teasing tramp. Have some follow-through. The nerve of this guy to give millions of people a semi and then just bail.

[Gorsameth]

Pretty skeptical about the report that Prighozin's going to just turn around and go back to the front now, and everything will be ok. It's more likely to be disinformation from the Putin side. But if true, not sure what Prighozin is thinking. Putin isn't going to just let attempting a coup go. Wagner surely realizes they will get eliminated the instant they turn their backs, or if they don't they should.

100% fake. Prig is all in and he knows it.

[Gabriel]

C'mon Prig. You can't blueball me like this.

[Joszef Kiprich]

Well Alea Iacta Est. The Prick will not get away with this, even if he retreats right now. Putin now knows his army is in such a weak state, he has no means of defending his own country. The consequences of today are going to echo for years.