Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Corvus]

Well that was the bizaarest of outcomes to wake up to. Everyone loses out of it. At the very least it massively weakens pootie.

[Belize]

even though this was staged,

Do you have a source for that?

[YUPPIE]

Do you have a source for that?

yes, he fucking pulled out after that grandiose speech and few moments of action. Putin was also suspiciously noted to avoid mentioning or discrediting Prigozhin the whole affair. Same for Prig with Putin

[Elegiac]

yes, he fucking pulled out after that grandiose speech and few moments of action. Putin was also suspiciously noted to avoid mentioning or discrediting Prigozhin the whole affair. Same for Prig with Putin

So... you don't actually have a source and are just making shit up.

[Corvus]

Wagner shot down 7 helicopters and a big plane, killing at least 13 aircrew. That was not staged. Pootie and the elites fled Moscow and showed they were incapable of defending the capital. And everyone saw it.

There is now blood on the water.

[YUPPIE]

Wagner shot down 7 helicopters and a big plane, killing at least 13 aircrew. That was not staged. Pootie and the elites fled Moscow and showed they were incapable of defending the capital. And everyone saw it.

There is now blood on the water.

explain why he pulled out then rather than taking over.

[Corvus]

explain why he pulled out then rather than taking over.

Because he didn't have enough men. He was hoping for a general mutiny among the army, which didn't eventuate. The police wouldn't have stopped him reaching Moscow but what then? The people he was after had fled and were cowering in a bunker somewhere. And he couldn't camp in Moscow indefinitely.

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This is very much a short term deal, not a long term solution. Less than a day after being called traitors, not a single member of Wagner will be charged with anything.

How do you think the air force is going to feel about that after losing 8 aircraft to Wagner in a day? Theyvare not going to happy about that, or working with them again.

[Kallisto]

explain why he pulled out then rather than taking over.

If Putin goes through with removing Tweedle Dumb and Tweedle Dee, then Prig has scored a massive victory. He goes to live in Belarus, his men are all going to get cushy jobs in African countries, going to protect mines that Prig owns. Prig likely will sneak out of Belarus and go live in or near one of those mines in a mansion anyway.

In short, if the deal goes through, he won. Even if this isn't a win, he made a strongman look weak as fuck.

[Iphie]

This is very much a short term deal, not a long term solution. Less than a day after being called traitors, not a single member of Wagner will be charged with anything.

How do you think the air force is going to feel about that after losing 8 aircraft to Wagner in a day? Theyvare not going to happy about that, or working with them again.

Not only that but it seems Shoigu and Gerasimov stay on, a lot of Wankers and Wanker supporters aren't happy, and those Wankers who allowed themselves to be absorbed by the MoD forces will be the first in the line for frontal assaults. Prig's role may be played out but that doesn't mean the sentiment is dead.

[Elegiac]

explain why he pulled out then rather than taking over.

The burden of proof is on you to back up your assertion with actual facts. There are many reasons why Priggie pulled out without resorting to conspiracy theories.

[Corvus]

Wagner just staged a massive mutiny and are not getting punished at all.

Do you think that is the kind of message a strongarm leader really wants to send?

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There's video from Rostov showing the locales cheering Wagner as they leave and booing the return of the local police and militia.

This has planted seeds.

[Kallisto]

Strongmen rulers who call people high treasonous terrorists on TV surely want those he called high treasonous terrorists to be cheered and people have photos with them like this

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/st...43334324973569

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Also, Lukashenko comes out of this looking stronger than Putin for crying out loud.

[Kathranis]

Honestly just a weird sequence of events. What made him have second thoughts? This isn't really a decision you can come back from. Maybe he gets to retire to Belarus but surely he could have done that without the mutiny, he's plenty wealthy as is. I guess Wagner Group gets some sort of formal MoD contract? Just weird.

Edit: I mean I guess Wagner Group in general gets to withdraw most of its forces from the meat grinder of Ukraine.

[Evil Midnight Bomber]

Iran, North Korea, China, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Cuba, Syria

Wouldn't be surprised if they were all like:

[YUPPIE]

you people claim here this was not in fact staged. But keep in mind of Prigozhin's lifelong loyalty to Putin up to now, as well as the mediator that "broke the peace" being Lukashenko, one of Putin's biggest sycophants.

Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko talked to Prigozhin at Putin's request. Lukashenko allegedly brokered an agreement in which Wagner fighters agreed to halt their advance and return to base in exchange for a guarantee of their safety. In an audio statement, Prigozhin said that he had agreed to the deal to avoid bloodshed,[86] and that his forces were "turning around [their] columns and returning to field camps according to plan".

Alexander Lukashenko is also not known for diplomatic skills or charisma, so it's hard to believe he could ever sway a supposedly enraged mercenary to stand down.

[Corvus]

Luka is a lot smarter than he seems - he plays the role of clown and walks a very fine tightrope keeping russia from taking over. Him showing the maps at the start of the war wasn't an accident.

There is a reason he has survived so long.

[Breccia]

you people claim here this was not in fact staged.

You claimed it was. You know that's literally a conspiracy theory, right? Did you even say "I think this was staged?" Hold on, I'll check.

albeit, the interesting thing was even though this was staged, Wagner still killed at least 12 people according to Wikipedia. While the Kremlin is obviously indifferent to human life, you have to wonder if that will not create some dissent or unease.

No. No statement of opinion, no statement of conjecture, no source, no quotations. Just flat out you saying what we saw was fake, then being irate when asked to back it up, and throwing it at us rather than defend your position -- even though the burden of proof was on you, and you were specifically and directly called out for it.

Conspiracy theories are not welcome on these forums. Please post constructively.

Trump issues cryptic warning on Russia coup

“A big mess in Russia, but be careful what you wish for. Next in may be far worse!” Trump said.

That's it. That's the whole story. I mean he's technically right, Russia is a big mess, and the next mess could by far worse. There's no context there to explain what he thinks could be that big mess or why. Does he mean the next leader of Russia could be more dangerous than Putin? Does he mean the next coup attempt might kill more people? Does he mean the Russian economy could collapse and make an even worse problem than Russia being so demonstrably horrible at being a super power? Trump has not explained, and considering how uniquely awful he was at world policy when in office, it's hazardous to guess.

Still, at least he is an expert on unsuccessful violent coups.

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Edit: I mean I guess Wagner Group in general gets to withdraw most of its forces from the meat grinder of Ukraine.

That sounds like a pretty big win, honestly. Russia is not handling this well at all.

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Do you think that is the kind of message a strongarm leader really wants to send?

This is an excellent point. No, I don't. Putin already has issues with Ukraine strikes in his own country. I can't think of a single reason he'd allow, or even create, a situation where someone leaves a smoldering bag of dog feces on his front doorstep, then leave under their own power.

[Elder Millennial]

I have a strange feeling this whole thing was really about money.

I have a suspicion as tensions were mounting between Prigs and the MoD, the MoD had somehow got its paws on Prigs rainy day funds. Not like Prigs can stash his money in a Western bank, so wherever he had it, odds are he couldn't get to it.

I suspect the Kremlin might have just paid Prigs off. They gave him a way out, and enough money for him to swim in it like Scrooge McDuck. Some heads will roll in MoD for fucking this whole thing up this badly, but for me a more important question is what exactly will become of Wagner.

It will very likely get way downsized, no more tanks and shit, and might not be allowed to operate in Russia and Russian held territories under arms anymore, but I don't see the Russians wrapping up the African/Syrian branches of it. Now, if those branches get to stick around...Will Prigs still be running it?

[Fantomen]

I.They gave him a way out, and enough money for him to swim in it like Scrooge McDuck

My thought too, and it might be a 100 years war deal to in the pot to. The French old king, will rule, untill his death, and then the yong English crown prince will take over. If sombady wounder what hapen, the English crown prince did die, a short time afterwards, so the war did continue.

[Vampiregenesis]

It was staged 100% and it looked like this from the start, if you have followed prighozin until now you would notice that he is a borderline troll and a joke that cannot be taken seriously. I doubt he is the one controlling wagner, they most likely take their orders from somewhere else. I don't know what was the purpose of this staged coup.