1. #32541
    Herald of the Titans Iphie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elder Millennial View Post
    So, there's still hope for the Russians to descend into civil war?
    Yeah, I mean this was just the first shot. If someone or a faction with more clout or better positioned has gotten ideas (if they did not already had ideas) then we're bound to see follow ups. Remember the message sent is: mutiny will get you deals.

  2. #32542
    The other message sent is that having your own private army gives you a lot of leeway and security in a mafia state. Every oligarch and their dog is going to want one now.

    - - - Updated - - -

    There are rumours from russian sources that Shoigu is under some form of house arrest by the FSB pending investigation as to his leadership and theft of resources.

  3. #32543
    Quote Originally Posted by Winter Blossom View Post
    How could that have gone unseen tho? Nukes aren’t exactly small, right?
    Depends.

    An ICBM isn't small, but a tactical nuke, small enough to be launched from a Tochka (a 6-wheeled vehicle that is also used for launching other missiles), wouldn't be noticed due to its size alone. Thus even if true they wouldn't be able to start WWIII, and I couldn't tell if Wagner actually has vehicles suitable for launching them. (There have been nukes as small as 26.5kg (W54); I assume Russia had/have something similar.)

    But I don't think that is an issue yet, but when Russia starts falling apart again that will be an issue again. The previous time Ukraine gave up their nukes for safety guarantees, I doubt any new breakaway parts will repeat that mistake.

  4. #32544
    Quote Originally Posted by Kathranis View Post
    Yeah but all he did was paint a bigger target on his back and then chicken out. That's the weird part.
    Yeah he is going to get tea'd, but by forcing a public concession out of Putin he bought some time.

  5. #32545
    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    Yeah he is going to get tea'd, but by forcing a public concession out of Putin he bought some time.
    I think he could disappear in their african holdings which would make it much harder for Putin to touch him.

  6. #32546
    Putin's been very quiet. I'd have expected him to make a statement by now.

    Russian media saying the charges against Prigozhin haven't been dropped.
    Last edited by DarkAmbient; 2023-06-26 at 08:44 AM.

  7. #32547
    Quote Originally Posted by Nymrohd View Post
    I think he could disappear in their african holdings which would make it much harder for Putin to touch him.
    Does it tho? What is Africa going to do if Putin flies a bomber in and levels the place?

    If Putin gets away with chemical weapons attacks in England then I don't think hiding in a 3e world country is going to protect you.
    It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death

  8. #32548
    Quote Originally Posted by Gorsameth View Post
    Does it tho? What is Africa going to do if Putin flies a bomber in and levels the place?

    If Putin gets away with chemical weapons attacks in England then I don't think hiding in a 3e world country is going to protect you.
    Lol dude, yes Putin will level the African continent, which as you say is "a place". The FSB being able to murder individuals without significant funds or backing in foreign countries does not mean they can do the same to a mercenary leader with significant holdings and a local corrupt government that is heavily dependent on his services.

  9. #32549
    Herald of the Titans Iphie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DarkAmbient View Post
    Putin's been very quiet. I'd have expected him to make a statement by now.

    Russian media saying the charges against Prigozhin haven't been dropped.
    Criss cross double cross...I mean that would be expected.

    There we go:

    Prigozhin's Criminal 'Mutiny' Charges Still in Place – Kommersant https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/...mersant-a81638
    Last edited by Iphie; 2023-06-26 at 09:49 AM.

  10. #32550
    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    The other message sent is that having your own private army gives you a lot of leeway and security in a mafia state. Every oligarch and their dog is going to want one now.
    A lot of them already do.

  11. #32551
    Quote Originally Posted by DarkAmbient View Post
    Putin's been very quiet. I'd have expected him to make a statement by now.

    Russian media saying the charges against Prigozhin haven't been dropped.
    I mean, charges don't matter in a country where you get 25 years in prison for mean words online while treason is not even treated with forceful capture.

    The law in russia is arbitrary and the only thing we need to focus on is power balances (or outcomes and what actually happens - not words) rather than official charges. Yes, we in the West can't wrap out heads around how such a country can possibly work but that's the case xD

  12. #32552
    Elemental Lord Makabreska's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Voidism View Post
    I mean, charges don't matter in a country where you get 25 years in prison for mean words online while treason is not even treated with forceful capture.

    The law in russia is arbitrary and the only thing we need to focus on is power balances (or outcomes and what actually happens - not words) rather than official charges. Yes, we in the West can't wrap out heads around how such a country can possibly work but that's the case xD
    Oh, I can assure you. If they could, they would grab Prig immediately. Problem is, they couldn't.
    Sometimes, the light of the moon is a key to other spaces. I've found a place where, for a night or two, the streets curve in unfamiliar ways. If I walk here, I might find insight, or I might be touched by madness.

  13. #32553
    Quote Originally Posted by Makabreska View Post
    Oh, I can assure you. If they could, they would grab Prig immediately. Problem is, they couldn't.
    Considering his location is unknown and he hasn't been seen since the end of the coup (from what I understand), Putin may actually have him for all we know.
    It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death

  14. #32554
    https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...ne-says-2023-6

    Russian forces in eastern Ukraine fired a banned suffocating chemical gas at Ukrainian troops, but it ended up being blown back towards them by the wind, a Ukrainian military official said.

    Russians fired a "chemical aerosol munition with suffocating effect on one of the positions," Valeriy Shershen, a spokesperson for the Joint Press Center of the Tavria Defense Force, said, according to Ukrinform's translation. But then "the wind blew in the enemy's direction."

    Shershen made the comments on Ukrainian TV, according to Ukrinform, with his comments picked up by other Ukrainian media, including by the Kyiv Post, The New Voice of Ukraine, Pravda, and state broadcaster Suspilne.

    Suspilne and Pravda reported that Shershen claimed the chemical was a prohibited one.
    Lord I kinda hope this is true.

  15. #32555
    Quote Originally Posted by Voidism View Post
    I mean, charges don't matter in a country where you get 25 years in prison for mean words online while treason is not even treated with forceful capture.
    We don't get to mock the Russians too hard as long as Donald Trump, Lauren Boebert, MGT, Gaetz, Josh Hawley et all are still roaming free.

  16. #32556
    Elemental Lord Makabreska's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gorsameth View Post
    Considering his location is unknown and he hasn't been seen since the end of the coup (from what I understand), Putin may actually have him for all we know.
    Well, it is unknown, becasue he just made a lot of powerful enemies. So he is hiding. Also, he released a new audio an hour ago.
    Sometimes, the light of the moon is a key to other spaces. I've found a place where, for a night or two, the streets curve in unfamiliar ways. If I walk here, I might find insight, or I might be touched by madness.

  17. #32557
    Herald of the Titans Iphie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    Yeah, I'm not sure, so far chemical weapons claims by Ukraine have been all debunked and if there's no independent verification it's kinda hard. Ukraine has a vested interest to have chemical weapons being used as that was a red line for the US.

  18. #32558
    Quote Originally Posted by Makabreska View Post
    Oh, I can assure you. If they could, they would grab Prig immediately. Problem is, they couldn't.
    I meant using bombs on them on their way to Moscow.

  19. #32559
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    The Kremlin is saying Putin will make a speech tonight to make several important announcements. I suppose it go could one of 2 ways; either spin that the whole coup/mutiny left them stronger than ever to try to downplay backlash over his weak response to it, or (longshot, but it's Russia) a dramatic reversal and doubling-down against Wagner despite the apparent truce to show strength.

    A lot of times with these scheduled Putin speeches he just never shows up, and then the Kremlin puts out a statement afterwards saying that he was never going to make a speech. Which is always funny.

  20. #32560
    Elemental Lord Makabreska's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Voidism View Post
    I meant using bombs on them on their way to Moscow.
    Dropping bombs in an attempt to kill Prig would be a hard escalation. They maybe would do it if talks would fail.
    Last edited by Makabreska; 2023-06-26 at 06:58 PM.
    Sometimes, the light of the moon is a key to other spaces. I've found a place where, for a night or two, the streets curve in unfamiliar ways. If I walk here, I might find insight, or I might be touched by madness.

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