Sometimes, the light of the moon is a key to other spaces. I've found a place where, for a night or two, the streets curve in unfamiliar ways. If I walk here, I might find insight, or I might be touched by madness.
So was it anything other than "Wagner are great guys, they made a whoopsie, I will keep my promise to those going to Belarus, Russia strong, good night."?
So, more posturing when the threat is gone. Just to reassure he is still in charge and control.
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Sometimes, the light of the moon is a key to other spaces. I've found a place where, for a night or two, the streets curve in unfamiliar ways. If I walk here, I might find insight, or I might be touched by madness.
Prigozhin's plane flew from Rostov to St Petersburg after the negotiations. We don't know if it was to have a personal meeting with Putin or just to pick up his family and valuables. It does show to me that Prigozhin wasn't worried about getting assassinated or harmed, and he wasn't in a hurry to leave the country. He was only seen in Minsk for the first time two days later.
Despite all the grandstanding there are no actual repercussions for the Wagner forces. Putin says that the perpetrators will be brought to justice (hinting at prigozhin) but he's not in Russia. and the Wagner forces in Russia get a choice to go join Prigozhin or join the regular army. Any professional Wagner soldier (veterans, ex-special forces) with two braincells is going to go to Belarus, because the Russian army isn't going to pay them their exorbitant salaries. Which indicates too me the army deal is mainly directed toward the prison conscripts Wagner started recruiting during the war. Whom are of little value for Prigozhin's African enterprises.
Putin clearly didn't defeat Wagner, which can bite him in the ass later on because Wagner has a large foothold in Africa and with Prigozhin at the helm. Politically speaking it might make more sense for certain African leaders to approach Lukashenko or Prigozhin now instead of Putin when they need something.
That combined with the amount of people that showed support or indifference toward the possible end of his reign should have Putin very worried. The Russian people are not going to defend him, they'll switch loyalty at the drop of a hat.
Last edited by P for Pancetta; 2023-06-26 at 09:50 PM.
Wagner troops and their families are going to move to Belarus according to some reports. Meanwhile pootie does a nothingburger of a speech, making himself look even weaker.
Luka really is the winner out of this, picking up an experienced private army.
He doesn't need too. The way Wagner is set up makes them self sufficient, they own the mines/resources they exploit. The idea behind this was that very little financial ties would lead back to the Russian government for deniability. Wagner could exploit the resources and use the money they made for expanding their operations and the only thing Putin had too do was send Prigozhin a message.
Most of the profits ended up in Russia ofc but to hide it properly it takes time.
Personally I never really got this approach. it invites corruption because the only one with proper oversight is Wagner. And everybody in the world knows what Wagner is/was, so the deniability thing only works in third-world countries with weak governments.
Last edited by P for Pancetta; 2023-06-26 at 10:29 PM.
Trying to summarize the Wagner situation. It's as if Blackwater decided to protest in the middle of the Iraq war aftermath that the Joint Chiefs were being too soft - > not giving jobs they wanted. So they decide to march on DC until Bush has a meeting with them. Bush says get your asses back to work or I'm arresting the lot of you, they leave and Canada offers to house them until things calm down/Bush decides what he wants to do with them. Maybe the soft exile and threat is enough, maybe someone needs to be made an example of.
Or course it's not a 1:1 comparison so please...just outlining a scenario that's more relatable.
Prig says he is in Minsk, in a room with 'no windows.' Still trolling I see.
And now the FSB has announced all charges of mutiny have been dropped. Again.
How come every country does better fake coups than Jan 6. Our shit was embarrassing.