Russian invasion of Ukraine

[alach]

Even though its impossible to get any actual numbers, I know Putin does not have the overwhelming support he claims, the question is by how much.
We can look at a few years back how many showed up at Red Square in support of Navalny, in protest of the current regime. The crowds were quite large back then, much bigger than say, Trumps inauguration crowds.

Another thing I would look at is Belarus, where many people say it just a vassal state of Russia. We need to remember than Lukashenko actually lost the last election there, meaning he has a minority of support, even with dodgey elections, voter intimidation, etc etc, just not the complete control like Russia has.

Is it too much to hope for an uprising. Some russians deserve better.

[Iphie]

A lark? I believe a larp means something different

Nah, Gabriel understands perfectly well what he wrote. Russia is LARPING that it's a functional country and everything is fine.

[Makabreska]

Publicly dismissing members of his military kinda puts holes in his entire 'the west was behind it' story he has fabricated, wouldn't it?
Surely the russian populace would be aware of this, right? Right.

The biggest hole was made by Prig in his 30 min video rant just before the Moscow Run. He straight out admitted that this entire war as nonsensical and that Ukraine/NATO never threatened Russia in the first place. This may be an overlooked, but important thing that can hard affect soldiers and citizens morale.

[Kralljin]

Is it too much to hope for an uprising. Some russians deserve better.

I wouldn't outrule an uprising but not one that puts necessarily better people in place.

The more democratic opposition seems to hardly exist anymore within Russia because they either went into exile or sit in a Gulag, so the only people staging an uprising will most likely be a more radical faction.
If you compare that to 1917, sure, the absolute monarchy was bad and the Tsar was pretty incompetent, but it also didn't reach the levels of insanity later displayed by Lenin, let alone Stalin.

For the majority of russians, i will assume it's only going to get worse, because unless Putin manages to somehow win in Ukraine and see the West collapsing in on itself, Russia will be pretty isolated, become a de facto chinese puppet or fracture even further.

I think we're past the point where a "Good ending" is possible for the current Russian state.

[Nymrohd]

I mean Prig and the people who seems sympathetic to him like Surovikin are arguably WORSE than Putin because they at the very least seem likely to be more effective at conducting the war since they realize the issues the army is facing.

[Canpinter]

Publicly dismissing members of his military kinda puts holes in his entire 'the west was behind it' story he has fabricated, wouldn't it?
Surely the russian populace would be aware of this, right? Right.

I think your missing the point of alot of this kind of propaganda. It's not about making a story to convince people it's about making an official narrative so that anyone caught saying anything that deviates can be delt with.

It's meant to make it very hard to organize any potential resistance/dissent/overthrow because you can't even acknowledge reality publicly.

[Iphie]

Seems Wankers will no longer be deployed in Ukraine:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...er-2023-06-29/

russians lie, but multiple reports must be addressed.

[P for Pancetta]

Seems Wankers will no longer be deployed in Ukraine:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...er-2023-06-29/

russians lie, but multiple reports must be addressed.

Always seemed the most likely case too me.

I'm wondering what'll happen with Wagner's foreign holdings. They protect Syrian oil fields and take a part of the profits, but they are not exploiting it themselves and I think they'll be easily replaced with other Russian forces as Assad can just choose to pay Putin instead of Wagner. For their African holdings this is a little more complicated as Wagner exploits those mines themselves. In countries where Wagner are the only Russian military personal. On the other hand they should worry about other nations branding them terrorists and a target and taking them out relatively easily as they do not have any heavy equipment or protection.

Also about people thinking Russia has publicly dismissed their military based on the report from the Moscow Times are getting it wrong. In Russia there has been no public statement regarding this person he's just not shown his face for a while. The Moscow Times is not a Russian state aligned newspaper, they are operated from outside of Russia these days because the owners fled the country.

[Twdft]

I'm wondering what'll happen with Wagner's foreign holdings. They protect Syrian oil fields and take a part of the profits, but they are not exploiting it themselves and I think they'll be easily replaced with other Russian forces as Assad can just choose to pay Putin instead of Wagner.

You think Assad has that choice? Pretty sure the prig would say something on thelines of "nice oil fields you got here. would be a shame if something happened to them"

[Kaleredar]

I mean Prig and the people who seems sympathetic to him like Surovikin are arguably WORSE than Putin because they at the very least seem likely to be more effective at conducting the war since they realize the issues the army is facing.

I’m dubious how much commitment to continue the war there is if Putin is out of the picture.

Russia is looking for an out that lets them save face. Putin wants to keep some chunk of his ill-gotten gains. Ukraine, obviously, is having none of that. But if the next group that comes in can “save face” by blaming it all on Putin?

I’d imagine there’s more money to be had running a tin-pot dictatorship in peace than in running a tin-pot dictatorship in a war that’s an ever-deepening money pit with most of the world turned against you.

[Edge-]

https://www.ft.com/content/70ac6446-...a-9182d6bae1be

Rofl, Kady's tiktok brigades are gonna be replacing Wagner apparently. I look forward to tons of slickly edited videos of them looking fucking cool and the only notable military accomplishments being them getting shelled or otherwise blown up on a livestream.

[P for Pancetta]

You think Assad has that choice? Pretty sure the prig would say something on thelines of "nice oil fields you got here. would be a shame if something happened to them"

Russia has their airforce present in Syria, Wagner can't do much about that, they only have their "elite" veterans there, not the hordes of conscripts they recruited for the war in Ukraine. Most of the time they operate alongside Syrian soldiers. They can quite easily get starved out of their positions too. Alternatively Wagner could choose to sabotage the fields but that would be risky too.

[enigma77]

I’m dubious how much commitment to continue the war there is if Putin is out of the picture.

Russia is looking for an out that lets them save face. Putin wants to keep some chunk of his ill-gotten gains. Ukraine, obviously, is having none of that. But if the next group that comes in can “save face” by blaming it all on Putin?

I’d imagine there’s more money to be had running a tin-pot dictatorship in peace than in running a tin-pot dictatorship in a war that’s an ever-deepening money pit with most of the world turned against you.

I wouldn't underestimate the element of Russian nationalism. Putin might not be the worst Russia can come up with. The "liberal" democratic opposition in Russia is in shambles, the people largely apathetic or drunk on the pro-war, pro-nationalist kool-aid, which makes the radical imperialist nationalists likely the strongest political faction. Unless the oligarchs decide to seize power by installing one of their own as president I guess.

I'd love to be wrong but I think Putin would likely be replaced with someone worse. He's the devil we know.

[unfilteredJW]

I wouldn't underestimate the element of Russian nationalism. Putin might not be the worst Russia can come up with. The "liberal" democratic opposition in Russia is in shambles, the people largely apathetic or drunk on the pro-war, pro-nationalist kool-aid, which makes the radical imperialist nationalists likely the strongest political faction. Unless the oligarchs decide to seize power by installing one of their own as president I guess.

I'd love to be wrong but I think Putin would likely be replaced with someone worse. He's the devil we know.

It’s best to ignore whatever this white supremacist posts.

[Iphie]

I’m dubious how much commitment to continue the war there is if Putin is out of the picture.

Russia is looking for an out that lets them save face. Putin wants to keep some chunk of his ill-gotten gains. Ukraine, obviously, is having none of that. But if the next group that comes in can “save face” by blaming it all on Putin?

I’d imagine there’s more money to be had running a tin-pot dictatorship in peace than in running a tin-pot dictatorship in a war that’s an ever-deepening money pit with most of the world turned against you.

Isn't that what Prig essentially did just before his short-lived coup? I mean he clearly laid out the case for russia being on the wrong side of history and there is a non-zero percent chance he'd actually stop the war if he got in charge. I know he's a nationalist but his signaling certainly left that option open.

Apart from prig, blaming the old management is a time honoured activity in most of the world.

[Xyonai]

All the disappointment I felt about Prig's blueball of a coup has been eased somewhat by watching Putin flailing around and purging his commanders assuming they were in on it.

Though, to put the tinfoil on for a moment, I feel like Putin and Prig might've been in cahoots to try and root out the disloyal elements of his government. Becauss I'm sure being reminded of that totally real coup against Erdogan that fizzled out in less than 24hrs and gave him a convenient reason to purge his military in a similar fashion.

[Gorsameth]

All the disappointment I felt about Prig's blueball of a coup has been eased somewhat by watching Putin flailing around and purging his commanders assuming they were in on it.

Though, to put the tinfoil on for a moment, I feel like Putin and Prig might've been in cahoots to try and root out the disloyal elements of his government. Becauss I'm sure being reminded of that totally real coup against Erdogan that fizzled out in less than 24hrs and gave him a convenient reason to purge his military in a similar fashion.

Erdogan's coup made him the hero that survived an attack on his helicopter (?, its been a while and I cba to look it up) and uprising was crushed in short order.

Putin on the other hand had a rebel army capture the military HQ in Rostov, storm towards Moscow unopposed, got told by the CSTO to stick it where the sun don't shine and then had to have a supposed vassal come in to negotiate a truce to save his ass, after which he led the instigations of the coup go free like a f*cking pussy.

Erdogan came out looking strong, Putin came out looking the weakest he has probably ever been.

This being a false flag/fake coup makes absolutely no sense.

[DarkTZeratul]

This article is from Newsweek, so take it with a huge grain of salt, but it's also hilarious so enjoy:

Russian President Vladimir Putin is allegedly considering veteran Hollywood star and aikido expert Steven Seagal as a replacement for beleaguered Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

[Edge-]

This article is from Newsweek, so take it with a huge grain of salt, but it's also hilarious so enjoy:

Russian President Vladimir Putin is allegedly considering veteran Hollywood star and aikido expert Steven Seagal as a replacement for beleaguered Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

fucking please please please please please

he can teach the russian military his advanced fighting techniques of flailing his arms about with fast-edits to make it seem like kung fu and then cutting to his stunt double who can actually kick at waist-level or higher

[Cynical Asshole]

Oh Space Ice is gonna be so happy about this. I love his vids shitting on Steven Seagal movies.