Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Calfredd]

That's exactly it. The Russian military collaborators with Prigozhin just mostly sat it out and let him through.

"The Earth is flat! The Earth is flat!" YUPPIE yelled out as he slowly shrank and turned into a corn cob.

[Nilinor]

I think Prig realized half-way to Moscow that killing putin and taking over is NOT worth it. He wouldn't be able to just "leave" ukraine, there would also be about 50 other putin followers that havent accidentally fell out of windows yet that would be gunning (literally) for head of the country. So he was like.. "hmm, I could just leave now with my millions and live somewhere else, and just not eat any weird food or be high in the air. The rest of the world will view me as trying to go against putin, so it should be ok"

[Gorsameth]

Putin had long since left Moscow so taking the city would be a symbolic gesture, not actually let Wagner kill/capture Putin.

[Gabriel]

It's not solely about Putin or his men. It's about Prig/Wagner and his men and the potential for a large amount of casuiites. People don't just let their main cities fall that easy, and it would be entirely ignorant to think that those civilians, the ones that support Putin, aren't going to defend Moscow. And if not for Putin, then for "Russia".

These are Russians we're talking about. They don't care about civilian casualties.

Prig didn't take Moscow because he wasn't planning on becoming the ruler of Russia. He got what he wanted out of Putin already by just threatening to take Moscow, so he stopped.

[Jastall]

It's not solely about Putin or his men. It's about Prig/Wagner and his men and the potential for a large amount of casuiites. People don't just let their main cities fall that easy, and it would be entirely ignorant to think that those civilians, the ones that support Putin, aren't going to defend Moscow. And if not for Putin, then for "Russia".

I strongly doubt that the leader of a mercenary company that exploits people almost like slaves in his mines gives even close to a shit about collateral damage.

The issue is that holding Moscow doesn't mean he controls the government, not when the bigwigs leave for St Pete's or elsewhere. Much like Napoleon holding it for weeks on end in 1812 changed nothing. Prig likely doesn't have enough of a support base among the country's elite for any real coup to take place either, end of the day he's probably viewed as little more than a warlord whose brutality can be directed somewhere useful. So if he captured it there would be resistance within the city, and more importantly at some point the government would be able to scramble the assets to respond and after that he's just screwed.

Starting this whole thing was a mistake to begin with, given that he didn't have the backing and resources to see it through at the start. He perhaps thought his show of force would grant him enough support from the military and oligarchs to make Putin's government crumble, but when that didn't happen he cut his losses and ran away as much as he could. Time will tell if that will save his skin but I doubt it.

[Breccia]

To cite the Washington Examiner, Russia's economic decline is irreversible.

Like my raincoat.

The economy of Russia is in shambles. And while the war in Ukraine is the main culprit for this state of affairs, there are others. Making matters worse for Moscow, President Vladimir Putin’s choices have rendered unworkable traditional economic paths out of recession and economic stagnation.

Typically, a domestic economy operating under a sanctions regime such as that facing Russia would create substitutes for otherwise unavailable goods and services. But sanctions dramatically limit foreign direct investment, which is necessary to modernize the Russian economy. The basic nature of Putin’s economic system makes it almost impossible for Russia to crawl out of its deep economic hole. Economic and political stability, necessary preconditions for economic reform, are far over the horizon given the war in Ukraine, sanctions, and the coup attempt by Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Russia lacks a diversified economy. It is heavily dependent on its oil and natural gas sector for hard currency reserves. It lacks a vibrant entrepreneurial class. Corruption and organized crime are rampant in Russia. New business, the engine of economic growth and innovation in the United States, is non-existent. Weak rule of law and excessive business regulation are endemic. Top line: Russia needs major internal economic reforms and greatly improved political stability to solve its problems.

Because small and new businesses cannot save the Russian economy from stagnation, it is left to the big state corporations to guide Russia out of its economic quagmire. That will not happen. The big state corporations are one of the central weaknesses of the Russian economy. They are inefficient, bloated, and sources of embedded corruption.

It's worth emphasizing just how overly dependent on its oil and natural gas sectors Russia is. Before the Ukrainian war, oil and natural gas revenues constituted up to 45% of the total Russian budget. After sanctions were imposed because of the Russian invasion, oil revenues have fallen to just 23% of the Russian budget. Russia has a strong comparative advantage in the production of oil and natural gas. It is among the three largest producers of oil. Russia only trails the U.S. in the production of natural gas. It arguably possesses the world’s largest gas reserves, but over reliance makes the economy vulnerable to falls in global demand.

Another problem for Putin and Russia?

Russia under invests in its oil and gas sectors. In time, investment will hollow out this crown jewel of the Russian economy. According to the Norwegian research firm Rystad Energy, Russian investment in its oil and gas sectors will plunge by about 30% because of sanctions. Russia’s liquified natural gas sector will be especially hard hit. And Russia is absent from the industry which is described as the 'oil' of the 21st century, semiconductors.

What is especially ironic about Russia’s absence from the global semiconductor industry is Russia’s history of global preeminence in mathematics and physics. Russia has the intellectual capital to be a dominant force in the semiconductor space and in artificial intelligence, but its political and economic systems preclude the development of this nascent comparative advantage.

At some point, the ruble will stop with a bang on Putin’s desk.

I tried to bold for emphasis, but it's kind of a lot of emphasis. The article at least makes sense: looking back pre-invasion, I didn't see a lot of articles hailing Russia as the tech giant of the future.

Russia might have shot itself in both feet.

[draynay]

To cite the Washington Examiner, Russia's economic decline is irreversible.

Like my raincoat.

First time I've seen a parallel between President Skroob and Putin, but it works.

[Elenos]

Damnatio Memoriae, that's actually kinda impressive.

Lol, OK.

I see Russia is really going down the path of North Korea. Wonder how long until they start executing people with AA guns.

[Kaleredar]

First time I've seen a parallel between President Skroob and Putin, but it works.

Now now now, that’s a false comparison.

Skroob’s plan succeeded, at least initially.

[draynay]

Now now now, that’s a false comparison.

Skroob’s plan succeeded, at least initially.

I think it's fair to say the war in Ukraine has gone from suck to blow.

[YUPPIE]

Following the drama of Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s rebellion last week, Russian authorities remained defiant. Vyacheslav Volodin, speaker of Russia’s lower house of parliament, the State Duma, said Sunday that Russian President Vladimir Putin came out of this situation “having strengthened his position even more both in the country and in the world.”

Russian society, he said, “having passed this test, has shown its maturity.” According to Volodin, there was “not a single example of someone supporting the rebellion.”

In addition, the speaker of the State Duma said that he had analyzed the “challenges” Russia faced in the past, affirming that if “someone like Putin” had been leading the country in 1917 and 1991, there wouldn’t have been a revolution in Russia, and the USSR wouldn’t have collapsed.

Related, Russia launches 12 Iranian drones after a lull due to Prigozhin, but all 12 were reportedly shot down.

[Corvus]

That some massive levels of copium.

Here's a hint - take the opposite of everything russia claims and you'll be close to the truth. Pootie has been massively weakened internally and externally. There were also many examples of civilians in Rostov supporting Wagner.

Seriously, if this forum had been around during the gulf war, we'd be seeing Baghdad Bob posted as a 'credible' source of news.

[alach]

In the meantime, while Ukraine continues to slowly push slowly and carefully east and south, some news;

Russia's latest frankenstien

Stranger than Ukriane’s growing family of do-it-yourself vehicles based on the hulls of captured Russian T-62 tanks. Stranger than the MT-LBs Russia has armed with obsolete naval cannons for rear-area air-defense. Stranger, even, than the BRDM scout car that some enthusiastic Ukrainian workshop fitted with a superstructure in order to produce the war’s most awkward armored personnel carrier.

The MT-LB-UB32-2B9 is a child of desperation: the kind of DIY vehicle an army would produce only after it’s run out of carefully-designed, properly-integrated armored vehicles.

But it’s no secret that the Russian army long ago crossed this desperation threshold. In 16 months of hard fighting, it’s lost 10,000 of its best vehicles in Ukraine. That’s more armored vehicles than most of the world’s armies have in their entire inventories.

And some sadder news...

The award-winning Ukrainian writer Victoria Amelina has died from her injuries after a Russian missile hit a pizza restaurant in the eastern city of Kramatorsk on Tuesday.

I'm not familiar with her, but just another example of how needless and pointless destruction is ruining so much more than just some land in Ukraine.

And finally, finacially;

Russia's economic decline is irreversible

The economy of Russia is in shambles. And while the war in Ukraine is the main culprit for this state of affairs, there are others. Making matters worse for Moscow, President Vladimir Putin’s choices have rendered unworkable traditional economic paths out of recession and economic stagnation.

It's worth emphasizing just how overly dependent on its oil and natural gas sectors Russia is. Before the Ukrainian war, oil and natural gas revenues constituted up to 45% of the total Russian budget. After sanctions were imposed because of the Russian invasion, oil revenues have fallen to just 23% of the Russian budget. Russia has a strong comparative advantage in the production of oil and natural gas. It is among the three largest producers of oil. Russia only trails the U.S. in the production of natural gas. It arguably possesses the world’s largest gas reserves, but over reliance makes the economy vulnerable to falls in global demand.

Another problem for Putin and Russia?

Russia under invests in its oil and gas sectors. In time, investment will hollow out this crown jewel of the Russian economy. According to the Norwegian research firm Rystad Energy, Russian investment in its oil and gas sectors will plunge by about 30% because of sanctions. Russia’s liquified natural gas sector will be especially hard hit. And Russia is absent from the industry which is described as the 'oil' of the 21st century, semiconductors

.

[KrayZ33]

Poland + Germany fail to agree on tank repair center for Ukraine

https://kyivindependent.com/spiegel-...kraine-in-war/

Remember when Poland said Germany didn't want to make a deal for tanks and stuff, yet Poland didn't even send an official request?

The important bit here is:
"One of the controversial issues is the cost of the initial diagnostics of tanks.
Polish defense company PGZ intended to charge 100,000 euros for such diagnostics but in Germany the price is almost ten times lower. ...
The repair facility was expected to be created at factories in two Polish cities, Gliwice and Poznan, and the costs of repairs would be covered by the German government."

lower - 10 times - IN GERMANY, where everyone earns like 2+ times the amount a polish worker does.
nice try to get some huge gains there...

PiS-Party?
More like Piss-party.

[Iphie]

Poland + Germany fail to agree on tank repair center for Ukraine

https://kyivindependent.com/spiegel-...kraine-in-war/

Remember when Poland said Germany didn't want to make a deal for tanks and stuff, yet Poland didn't even send an official request?

The important bit here is:
"One of the controversial issues is the cost of the initial diagnostics of tanks.
Polish defense company PGZ intended to charge 100,000 euros for such diagnostics but in Germany the price is almost ten times lower. ...
The repair facility was expected to be created at factories in two Polish cities, Gliwice and Poznan, and the costs of repairs would be covered by the German government."

lower - 10 times - IN GERMANY, where everyone earns like 2+ times the amount a polish worker does.
nice try to get some huge gains there...

PiS-Party?
More like Piss-party.

Wonderful....now is not the time for bickering.

[YUPPIE]

Russia has admitted (proudly) to the ethnic genocide of at least 700,000 children

Russia has brought some 700,000 children from the conflict zones in Ukraine into Russian territory, Grigory Karasin, head of the international committee in the Federation Council, Russia's upper house of parliament, said late on Sunday.

"In recent years, 700,000 children have found refuge with us, fleeing the bombing and shelling from the conflict areas in Ukraine," Karasin wrote on his Telegram messaging channel.

Russia launched a full-scale invasion on its western neighbour Ukraine in February 2022. Moscow says its progranme of bring children from Ukraine into Russian territory is to protect orphans and children abandoned in the conflict zone.

However, Ukraine says many children have been illegally deported and the United States says thousands of children have been forcibly removed from their homes.

Most of the movement of people and children occurred in the first few months of the war and before Ukraine started its major counter offensive to regain occupied territories in the east and south in late August.

In July 2022, the United States estimated that Russia "forcibly deported" 260,000 children, while Ukraine's Ministry of Integration of Occupied Territories, says 19,492 Ukrainian children are currently considered illegally deported.

[Corvus]

Well Shoigu is reaching Baghdad Bob levels of insanity - his latest claims are that just in the southern part of Ukraine's counteroffensive, russia has destroyed 15 planes, 3 helicopters, 16 Leopards and 920 armoured vehicles. They must have been really effective as they didn't leave any parts left to take photos of.

[callipygoustp]

Russia has admitted (proudly) to the ethnic genocide of at least 700,000 children

The real headline of the article:
Moscow says 700,000 children from Ukraine conflict zones now in Russia

...just getting rid of the "genocide" from Yuppie's link.

[Saradain]

The real headline of the article:
Moscow says 700,000 children from Ukraine conflict zones now in Russia

...just getting rid of the "genocide" from Yuppie's link.

But it is a genocide by official standards. YUPPIE sure twists words in every post he makes, but this one is actually factually correct. It is a genocide (and a war crime) to kidnap 700k children to brainwash them into "proper russians".

[Iphie]

But it is a genocide by official standards. YUPPIE sure twists words in every post he makes, but this one is actually factually correct. It is a genocide (and a war crime) to kidnap 700k children to brainwash them into "proper russians".

It is, but crunching the numbers I'm a bit skeptical about the exact number. I mean I have no doubt it's a lot but 700 000 children would represent a significant amount of the children of Ukraine and I don't think even Ukraine says it's that many.