Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Belize]

Technically she's not wrong, as the meaning of "regime" is "government", but in recent times it has changed from that neutral meaning to the more negative connotation of an authoritarian system of government. (obviously that's not what she means.)

Oh I absolutely believe Yuppie is using regime in its negative connotation. That poster is very much pro-Russia.

[Iphie]

Oh I absolutely believe Yuppie is using regime in its negative connotation. That poster is very much pro-Russia.

Eh, maybe I was unclear: the poster obviously meant the bad meaning, I can see how my post could be misunderstood.

[Corvus]

Was it a military target? Nope, so it wasn't Ukraine. Sounds more like internal problems again.

[YUPPIE]

Russia has apparently planted explosives on the ZNPP reactor buildings; Ukrainians feel a false flag operation is imminent

Foreign objects “resembling explosive devices” have been placed on the outer roof of the third and fourth reactor buildings of the occupied Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), the Armed Forces of Ukraine said in a Facebook post on July 4.

The message suggests that Russia is preparing to stage a provocation or a false flag operation at the facility in near future.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces believe that their detonation cannot damage the reactors themselves, but can be used to accuse Ukraine of shelling the power plant. The General Staff also noted that Russian media and Telegram channels are actively spreading disinformation about an “imminent” Ukrainian attack on ZNPP.

[Belize]

It's not a false flag when we know exactly who's doing it? Words have meanings you know.

[s_bushido]

It's not a false flag when we know exactly who's doing it? Words have meanings you know.

Yeah, no kidding...

At this point, Ukraine could blow it up themselves and literally no one would believe they did it. Probably not even Russians.

[Corvus]

And russia has been told repeatedly that there is zero tolerance for blowing up a nuclear power plant and a high chance radiation falling on Europe will trigger article 5.

[Gaidax]

If Russia will set off these charges, nobody will do shit and nobody will trigger any articles.

All that Russia does is setup just enough plausible deniability for the wide public to mire the whole thing into yet another decade long investigation that will lead to cosmetic and meaningless conclusion at best like MH370.

So, you better hope it's just some sort of mutual BS or at worst it will be cosmetic fireworks with minor damage to concrete. At the very least, I'd hope Russia is not interested in producing another nuclear disaster right at its border even if you never know anymore with them.

[YUPPIE]

So, you better hope it's just some sort of mutual BS

Sorry but I'm hoping neither Ukraine nor Russia are bluffing or making claims with this.

[Belize]

If Russia will set off these charges, nobody will do shit and nobody will trigger any articles.

All that Russia does is setup just enough plausible deniability for the wide public to mire the whole thing into yet another decade long investigation that will lead to cosmetic and meaningless conclusion at best like MH370.

So, you better hope it's just some sort of mutual BS or at worst it will be cosmetic fireworks with minor damage to concrete. At the very least, I'd hope Russia is not interested in producing another nuclear disaster right at its border even if you never know anymore with them.

Plausible deniability?? Russia has been in control of the power plant for a while now, the only ones who would ever be confused as to who the culprit here is are shills actively spreading misinformation.

[Kaleredar]

Oh, Ukraine is attacking Russia?

Darn, if only there were way for Russia to stop all of this happening, instantly.

[Corvus]

If Russia will set off these charges, nobody will do shit and nobody will trigger any articles.

All that Russia does is setup just enough plausible deniability for the wide public to mire the whole thing into yet another decade long investigation that will lead to cosmetic and meaningless conclusion at best like MH370.

So, you better hope it's just some sort of mutual BS or at worst it will be cosmetic fireworks with minor damage to concrete. At the very least, I'd hope Russia is not interested in producing another nuclear disaster right at its border even if you never know anymore with them.

Europe is not going to do nothing if russia starts raining nuclear contamination down on it. Stuff blowing up in Ukraine or russia doesn't really worry it but they can't ignore it if their civilian population starts worrying about their kids and lifestyle.

[Kaleredar]

If Russia will set off these charges, nobody will do shit and nobody will trigger any articles.

All that Russia does is setup just enough plausible deniability for the wide public to mire the whole thing into yet another decade long investigation that will lead to cosmetic and meaningless conclusion at best like MH370.

So, you better hope it's just some sort of mutual BS or at worst it will be cosmetic fireworks with minor damage to concrete. At the very least, I'd hope Russia is not interested in producing another nuclear disaster right at its border even if you never know anymore with them.

The average global citizen isn’t under the same disillusion that the average Russian shill seems to be. Russia complaining about everyone seeing through their “plausible deniability” is nothing but crocodile tears, and everyone knows it.

And things exploding contained in Russia/Ukraine is expected in Russias little farce of war. But when that starts to materially affect Europe?

Russia is on thin ice. The world has hammered Russia with sanctions and economic decoupling much to Russia’s vocal but impotent rage. Nobody is afraid of Russia. Hell, the country that’s actively being invaded by Russia isn’t afraid of Russia.

[Gabriel]

Russia has apparently planted explosives on the ZNPP reactor buildings; Ukrainians feel a false flag operation is imminent

Foreign objects “resembling explosive devices” have been placed on the outer roof of the third and fourth reactor buildings of the occupied Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), the Armed Forces of Ukraine said in a Facebook post on July 4.

The message suggests that Russia is preparing to stage a provocation or a false flag operation at the facility in near future.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces believe that their detonation cannot damage the reactors themselves, but can be used to accuse Ukraine of shelling the power plant. The General Staff also noted that Russian media and Telegram channels are actively spreading disinformation about an “imminent” Ukrainian attack on ZNPP.

If we get Chernobyl season 2 out of this I'm sort of cool with how things are going.

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Plausible deniability?? Russia has been in control of the power plant for a while now, the only ones who would ever be confused as to who the culprit here is are shills actively spreading misinformation.

Is the collective West big enough of a pussy to let it happen as long as Putin publicly says "We didn't do it", or would it act?

I'm 50/50 on this.

Literally everyone knew the little green men that took over Crimea were Russian SOF, but we let it happen because Russia had Germany by the gas bill, and France can't allow a single possibility of surrendering slip past. Had the Russians blown up the powerplant anywhere in 2014-2021, we would have done precisely nothing.

Now tho? I could see NATO actually doing something.

[Flarelaine]

Technically she's not wrong, as the meaning of "regime" is "government", but in recent times it has changed from that neutral meaning to the more negative connotation of an authoritarian system of government. (obviously that's not what she means.)

It also has a connotation of illegitimate government, I believe that is what she was going for.

[Gaidax]

Plausible deniability?? Russia has been in control of the power plant for a while now, the only ones who would ever be confused as to who the culprit here is are shills actively spreading misinformation.

You need to understand how politics work.

You make up a story and your partners or even detractors use it to dance around and cut deals with you under the pretense that "we don't really know what happened, a very long and daunting investigation is needed blah blah blah".

Whole world goes by that, so the countries and blocks can keep making deals between themselves and this is what matters, not some randos in MMO-C/Reddit/Whatever screeching "we know Russia did it".

Realpolitik and all.

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The average global citizen isn’t under the same disillusion that the average Russian shill seems to be.

Average global citizen is not an actual decision-maker, no matter the fables about democracy and all people in power push around.

Literally look at Russia/EU/US relations - even after all Russia has done they are still enjoying a lot of the Western technology, privileges and perks. SWIFT is still largely intact in Russia, you can still access Google, use cloud compute and what not.

What's their body count after this year and a half? And they/their companies can still use 90% of things you can use just fine. Their top brass kids enjoy the high life in EU and what not. But hey if they set off some dummy charges there it totes gonna change man!

Russia should have had 5 times the severity of the sanctions it has now, instead it has a huge amount of sanctions, but most of them are a joke just for the show for the "average global citizen".

Ukraine should have got 5 times the support and military equipment it got, but instead it got what it has got because the decision makers decided that we just can't be mean to Russia too much, because ABCD.

It's like Biden and co just only fucking now have musings of whether to supply MLRS systems with 300 km range to Ukraine. That shit should have happened a year ago, but we gotta have that dance with Russia. And that's how shit works.

[YUPPIE]

I agree with Gaidax on every point

[alach]

https://www.euractiv.com/section/glo...-warns-russia/

The US Senate has introduced a resolution which proposes that the actions of Russia, Belarus “or proxy of Russia” be considered as an attack on NATO, if their actions lead to radioactive contamination of the allies’ territory.

American lawmakers: If Russia launches a nuclear strike on Ukraine, it will go to war with NATO.

A radiation leak would unleash a cloud that would reach the territory f NATO members.

The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is under the control of the Russian occupying forces.

Senators noted that this is the first precedent since the collapse of the USSR that Russia has moved its nuclear weapons beyond its own borders, and it is a serious threat to global security amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.

By deploying tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, Russia is lowering the nuclear threshold, politicians and commentators have said.

Also, sounds like UK government is working on their own bill that basically says the same thing.

Clear enough?

In other news, explosions heard in Tokmak, a key Russian supply hub, and a focus of the Ukrainians for weeks. While Ukraine says the last few days of the counteroffensive have been, “particularly fruitful”

[Gaidax]

Clear enough?

I'm waiting for actual concrete steps as opposed yet another "proposal", "resolution", "condemnation" and all the other usual words that mean nothing in reality. It's a show to make alach and co. feel good.

As I said - Russia will do what it intends to do and West, as usual, will swallow it only with a bunch of token actions just to show they reacted and did something about it.


Here's a proposal - if you touch the power plant, we will shut off all the access to the cloud computing options for Russia. But nope, they aren't gonna do it - instead just another bunch of personal sanctions and slaps on the wrist. Guess another 20 Bradleys for Ukraine because we feel ashamed a bit.

[alach]

I'm waiting for actual concrete steps as opposed yet another "proposal", "resolution", "condemnation" and all the other usual words that mean nothing in reality. It's a show to make alach and co. feel good.

As I said - Russia will do what it intends to do and West, as usual, will swallow it only with a bunch of token actions just to show they reacted and did something about it.


Here's a proposal - if you touch the power plant, we will shut off all the access to the cloud computing options for Russia. But nope, they aren't gonna do it - instead just another bunch of personal sanctions and slaps on the wrist. Guess another 20 Bradleys for Ukraine because we feel ashamed a bit.

I probably wont be happy, I'll be in the fallout area.

I wish the west would get on giving everything to Ukraine they need as well, for basically doing what NATO was designed to do in the first place - Stop Russian aggression, but unfortuately, you can blame the indecisiveness on a certain percent of the western populations that is known to wear t-shirts that read "MAGA" and ''I'd rather be Russian than a democrat.", that still hold some sway.

But honestly, you actually think the world would do nothing if that plant goes up? I'm pretty sure that would warrant UN peacekeepers on the ground and vast ammounts of international aid if not Nato itself.
Also, for people thinking "theres no way Putin goes through with that" Thats what was said before the invasion, before the dam, etc. Worse yet, it looks like we wont have to wait long to find out, there is a ton of chatter of it today.