Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Gaidax]

But honestly, you actually think the world would do nothing if that plant goes up?

That's the thing, it won't.

Remember the "dance"? This activity US/EU and Russia engage in where they do just enough to piss the other side off, but not enough to trigger actual direct military confrontation?

This will be more of the same - Russia won't make plant "go up" - it will set off the charges, but will make sure it won't result in Chernobil 2.0, after all what they want is to scare people in the West to pressure the populace into pressing for peace talks and maybe stall Ukraine somewhat in the area.

And the "World" (meaning West) won't do anything that goes beyond some more cosmetics for the appearance.

[Kallisto]

I wish the west would get on giving everything to Ukraine they need as well, for basically doing what NATO was designed to do in the first place - Stop Russian aggression

You're missing the important part here. It's not to "Stop Russian aggression everywhere." it's to stop Russian Aggression against NATO countries.

[Jastall]

That's the thing, it won't.

Remember the "dance"? This activity US/EU and Russia engage in where they do just enough to piss the other side off, but not enough to trigger actual direct military confrontation?

This will be more of the same - Russia won't make plant "go up" - it will set off the charges, but will make sure it won't result in Chernobil 2.0, after all what they want is to scare people in the West to pressure the populace into pressing for peace talks and maybe stall Ukraine somewhat in the area.

And the "World" (meaning West) won't do anything that goes beyond some more cosmetics for the appearance.

Considering their crushing incompetence so far, even them trying to limit damages is scary in and of itself. They have ample room to fuck shit up and actually cause a massive disaster in this game of chicken.

[Nymrohd]

This will be more of the same - Russia won't make plant "go up" - it will set off the charges, but will make sure it won't result in Chernobil 2.0, after all what they want is to scare people in the West to pressure the populace into pressing for peace talks and maybe stall Ukraine somewhat in the area.

I get what you are saying and I largely agree but I don't think we can rule out their incompetence causing a much greater disaster.

[Gaidax]

Is there a chance Russia will fuck it up like everything they do? Yes.

[YUPPIE]

NATO will never do anything unless Russia directly attacks one of its own. And even then, they would be hesitant.

On other news, Saudi Arabia says its relationship with Russia is stronger than ever.

[Lynarii]

That's the thing, it won't.

Remember the "dance"? This activity US/EU and Russia engage in where they do just enough to piss the other side off, but not enough to trigger actual direct military confrontation?

This will be more of the same - Russia won't make plant "go up" - it will set off the charges, but will make sure it won't result in Chernobil 2.0, after all what they want is to scare people in the West to pressure the populace into pressing for peace talks and maybe stall Ukraine somewhat in the area.

And the "World" (meaning West) won't do anything that goes beyond some more cosmetics for the appearance.

The charges seen are on reactors 3 and 4, which are in a state of cold shutdown at the moment as is. They are very unlikely to damage the reactor core, and even if they DID, it wouldn't start a nuclear meltdown because in a cold shutdown on a semi-modern reactor (ZNPP is 80s, but has been updated since then IIRC?) there isn't the material there for that to happen.

The real risk that we're looking at for something like that is cracking the waste containment and releasing toxic material into the river. The realistic worst case scenario is contamination wiping out the fishing industry in the Black Sea, which would be devastating to every country that borders it. At that point, it would really be Turkey's response that would define what happened.

[Iphie]

The charges seen are on reactors 3 and 4, which are in a state of cold shutdown at the moment as is. They are very unlikely to damage the reactor core, and even if they DID, it wouldn't start a nuclear meltdown because in a cold shutdown on a semi-modern reactor (ZNPP is 80s, but has been updated since then IIRC?) there isn't the material there for that to happen.

The real risk that we're looking at for something like that is cracking the waste containment and releasing toxic material into the river. The realistic worst case scenario is contamination wiping out the fishing industry in the Black Sea, which would be devastating to every country that borders it. At that point, it would really be Turkey's response that would define what happened.

Bulgaria and Romania don't have Black Sea shores anymore? Both are NATO members as well.

[Edge-]

The way things are going, if Russia blows the facility up and releases radioactivity the chances are that it will largely be blown over Russian land anyways. And they'll blame it on NATO...somehow.

[Crispin]

I'm waiting for actual concrete steps as opposed yet another "proposal", "resolution", "condemnation" and all the other usual words that mean nothing in reality. It's a show to make alach and co. feel good.

As I said - Russia will do what it intends to do and West, as usual, will swallow it only with a bunch of token actions just to show they reacted and did something about it.


Here's a proposal - if you touch the power plant, we will shut off all the access to the cloud computing options for Russia. But nope, they aren't gonna do it - instead just another bunch of personal sanctions and slaps on the wrist. Guess another 20 Bradleys for Ukraine because we feel ashamed a bit.

Ukraine would have been Russia now without western help.

Could the west do more? Sure, but Ukraine is neither a NATO or EU member.

[Drutt]

The way things are going, if Russia blows the facility up and releases radioactivity the chances are that it will largely be blown over Russian land anyways. And they'll blame it on NATO...somehow.

That will prove that it couldn't possibly be Russia who blew it up! Why would they screw themselves? It must be the evil Nazi Ukrainians!

Obligatory peak 2023 /s tag.

[Gaidax]

Ukraine would have been Russia now without western help.

Could the west do more? Sure, but Ukraine is neither a NATO or EU member.

And that is the reason for me saying what I say.

Russia will set off charges, do some cosmetic damage and Western response will be very angry words and meaningless sanctions because <quote>.

The usual.

[Elegiac]

And that is the reason for me saying what I say.

Yes, because we all know what you say is never wrong. /s

Ukrainian military will be swept aside like a piece of paper in a storm.

You and Easo spent a good number of pages arguing that Kyiv was going to fall any day now, that there won't be any sanctions, blah blah blah.

And now we're here in the year of our lord 2023 with every single one of your "predictions" having been proved wrong. Exactly what clout do you think you have to throw around, habibi?

[Gaidax]

Yes, because we all know what you say is never wrong. /s



You and Easo spent a good number of pages arguing that Kyiv was going to fall any day now, that there won't be any sanctions, blah blah blah.

And now we're here in the year of our lord 2023 with every single one of your "predictions" having been proved wrong. Exactly what clout do you think you have to throw around, habibi?

I'm not a prophet and don't claim to be one, I am stating my opinions in the public forum. You are free to agree or disagree, but don't pull this bullshit on me about my supposed "every single prediction", because you're literally talking out of your behind at that point, unless you literally pull a list of everything I ever said in my 19244 posts in this forum over almost 10 years and show how it's 100% incorrect.

Guess what? Everyone and their mothers states their piece here and I have yet to see one person who was 100% on the money on everything ever.

[Elegiac]

I'm not a prophet and don't claim to be one, I am stating my opinions in the public forum. You are free to agree or disagree, but don't pull this bullshit on me about my supposed "every single prediction", because you're literally talking out of your behind at that point, unless you literally pull a list of everything I ever said in my 19244 posts in this forum over almost 10 years and show how it's 100% incorrect.

Guess what? Everyone and their mothers states their piece here and I have yet to see one person who was 100% on the money on everything ever.

And on the subject of the War in Ukraine, you've been wrong vastly more than you've ever been correct. Ukraine's military has not been swept aside, Kyiv has not fallen, the West did in fact impose sanctions which Russia is crumpling under, and the economic situation has not forced a settlement where Russia gets to keep its gains in Donbas. This is also in spite of the goalpost shifting wherein "the West won't impose sanctions" became "well, they imposed sanctions but they won't actually do anything" to "well, the sanctions didn't go as far as they could have gone therefore they really aren't sanctions".

The funny thing is I don't think you realise that you are doing very much the same thing as Shalcker and Yuppie in that all of you are putting forth opinions that buttress a "Russia stronk" narrative - in your case, it's insisting that the geopolitical situation of the late and post-Soviet era is the same as that of the present day despite all the indications to the contrary.

[Gaidax]

And on the subject of the War in Ukraine, you've been wrong vastly more than you've ever been correct. Ukraine's military has not been swept aside, Kyiv has not fallen, the West did in fact impose sanctions which Russia is crumpling under, and the economic situation has not forced a settlement where Russia gets to keep its gains in Donbas. This is also in spite of the goalpost shifting wherein "the West won't impose sanctions" became "well, they imposed sanctions but they won't actually do anything" to "well, the sanctions didn't go as far as they could have gone therefore they really aren't sanctions".

The funny thing is I don't think you realise that you are doing very much the same thing as Shalcker and Yuppie in that all of you are putting forth opinions that buttress a "Russia stronk" narrative - in your case, it's insisting that the geopolitical situation of the late and post-Soviet era is the same as that of the present day despite all the indications to the contrary.

All you do is put up a classic strawman argument.

You want to respond to what we discuss now or you will keep up putting more words into my mouth from discussion a year and a half ago and then refuting these constructs you create?

I don't think this thread is "Look at how Gaidax was wrong about some stuff I think he wrote a year and a half ago". You want to bash me on that one? Feel free to open an exclusive thread for that, instead of wasting my time here.

[Lynarii]

Bulgaria and Romania don't have Black Sea shores anymore? Both are NATO members as well.

They do, but Turkey is the one that has been trying to play both sides, and has the majority of the NATO naval forces in the Black Sea. Turkey's strategically powerful position is the whole reason they're even part of NATO, even though they rarely align with everyone else's interests. Romania and Bulgaria already are supporting Ukraine and have expressed overt hostility towards Russia's actions. Turkey is the wildcard.

[Gaidax]

They do, but Turkey is the one that has been trying to play both sides, and has the majority of the NATO naval forces in the Black Sea. Turkey's strategically powerful position is the whole reason they're even part of NATO, even though they rarely align with everyone else's interests. Romania and Bulgaria already are supporting Ukraine and have expressed overt hostility towards Russia's actions. Turkey is the wildcard.

Turkey does what Erdogan wants, I do however expect him to tame his attitude a tad now that he clinched another term.

Much of all that last year's BS with NATO was his attempt to woo the nationalists by showing them how he's a big defender of Turkish national interests and how his balls are really big and important to the point he can prevent whole country or two joining NATO, in hopes for this to somehow pull him through given less than stellar economic and social performance of his government.

This trick did work and now he will chill for a few years secure in his chair. Note how he literally reversed his economic policy the moment election was over and he is no longer in danger of losing presidency. He will do the same in quite a few other areas.

[Edge-]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/curr...ns-2023-06-30/

Any way you slice it the rouble continues its downward slide as the war drags on. Still higher than its lowest point after the initial invasion, but it'll get back there at this pace.

[Lynarii]

Turkey does what Erdogan wants, I do however expect him to tame his attitude a tad now that he clinched another term.

Much of all that last year's BS with NATO was his attempt to woo the nationalists by showing them how he's a big defender of Turkish national interests and how his balls are really big and important to the point he can prevent whole country or two joining NATO, in hopes for this to somehow pull him through given less than stellar economic and social performance of his government.

This trick did work and now he will chill for a few years secure in his chair. Note how he literally reversed his economic policy the moment election was over and he is no longer in danger of losing presidency. He will do the same in quite a few other areas.

It's not quite that simple. Erdogan wants, more than anything else, to retain and expand his power. And one of the most guaranteed methods to weaken a government is to have instability in the food supply. People get very angry very fast if they can't eat. If Black Sea fishing is tainted by radioactive runoff, he has to respond to that. How he would respond I'm not sure, but that's not something he can sit back and try and ignore without looking weak and incapable.

A population's tune changes quickly when what they considered someone else's problem becomes theirs.