1. #32781
    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    I'm waiting for actual concrete steps as opposed yet another "proposal", "resolution", "condemnation" and all the other usual words that mean nothing in reality. It's a show to make alach and co. feel good.

    As I said - Russia will do what it intends to do and West, as usual, will swallow it only with a bunch of token actions just to show they reacted and did something about it.


    Here's a proposal - if you touch the power plant, we will shut off all the access to the cloud computing options for Russia. But nope, they aren't gonna do it - instead just another bunch of personal sanctions and slaps on the wrist. Guess another 20 Bradleys for Ukraine because we feel ashamed a bit.
    Ukraine would have been Russia now without western help.

    Could the west do more? Sure, but Ukraine is neither a NATO or EU member.

  2. #32782
    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    The way things are going, if Russia blows the facility up and releases radioactivity the chances are that it will largely be blown over Russian land anyways. And they'll blame it on NATO...somehow.
    That will prove that it couldn't possibly be Russia who blew it up! Why would they screw themselves? It must be the evil Nazi Ukrainians!

    Obligatory peak 2023 /s tag.

  3. #32783
    The Unstoppable Force Gaidax's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crispin View Post
    Ukraine would have been Russia now without western help.

    Could the west do more? Sure, but Ukraine is neither a NATO or EU member.
    And that is the reason for me saying what I say.

    Russia will set off charges, do some cosmetic damage and Western response will be very angry words and meaningless sanctions because <quote>.

    The usual.

  4. #32784
    Void Lord Elegiac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    And that is the reason for me saying what I say.
    Yes, because we all know what you say is never wrong. /s

    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    Ukrainian military will be swept aside like a piece of paper in a storm.
    You and Easo spent a good number of pages arguing that Kyiv was going to fall any day now, that there won't be any sanctions, blah blah blah.

    And now we're here in the year of our lord 2023 with every single one of your "predictions" having been proved wrong. Exactly what clout do you think you have to throw around, habibi?
    Quote Originally Posted by Marjane Satrapi
    The world is not divided between East and West. You are American, I am Iranian, we don't know each other, but we talk and understand each other perfectly. The difference between you and your government is much bigger than the difference between you and me. And the difference between me and my government is much bigger than the difference between me and you. And our governments are very much the same.

  5. #32785
    The Unstoppable Force Gaidax's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elegiac View Post
    Yes, because we all know what you say is never wrong. /s



    You and Easo spent a good number of pages arguing that Kyiv was going to fall any day now, that there won't be any sanctions, blah blah blah.

    And now we're here in the year of our lord 2023 with every single one of your "predictions" having been proved wrong. Exactly what clout do you think you have to throw around, habibi?
    I'm not a prophet and don't claim to be one, I am stating my opinions in the public forum. You are free to agree or disagree, but don't pull this bullshit on me about my supposed "every single prediction", because you're literally talking out of your behind at that point, unless you literally pull a list of everything I ever said in my 19244 posts in this forum over almost 10 years and show how it's 100% incorrect.

    Guess what? Everyone and their mothers states their piece here and I have yet to see one person who was 100% on the money on everything ever.

  6. #32786
    Void Lord Elegiac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    I'm not a prophet and don't claim to be one, I am stating my opinions in the public forum. You are free to agree or disagree, but don't pull this bullshit on me about my supposed "every single prediction", because you're literally talking out of your behind at that point, unless you literally pull a list of everything I ever said in my 19244 posts in this forum over almost 10 years and show how it's 100% incorrect.

    Guess what? Everyone and their mothers states their piece here and I have yet to see one person who was 100% on the money on everything ever.
    And on the subject of the War in Ukraine, you've been wrong vastly more than you've ever been correct. Ukraine's military has not been swept aside, Kyiv has not fallen, the West did in fact impose sanctions which Russia is crumpling under, and the economic situation has not forced a settlement where Russia gets to keep its gains in Donbas. This is also in spite of the goalpost shifting wherein "the West won't impose sanctions" became "well, they imposed sanctions but they won't actually do anything" to "well, the sanctions didn't go as far as they could have gone therefore they really aren't sanctions".

    The funny thing is I don't think you realise that you are doing very much the same thing as Shalcker and Yuppie in that all of you are putting forth opinions that buttress a "Russia stronk" narrative - in your case, it's insisting that the geopolitical situation of the late and post-Soviet era is the same as that of the present day despite all the indications to the contrary.
    Quote Originally Posted by Marjane Satrapi
    The world is not divided between East and West. You are American, I am Iranian, we don't know each other, but we talk and understand each other perfectly. The difference between you and your government is much bigger than the difference between you and me. And the difference between me and my government is much bigger than the difference between me and you. And our governments are very much the same.

  7. #32787
    The Unstoppable Force Gaidax's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elegiac View Post
    And on the subject of the War in Ukraine, you've been wrong vastly more than you've ever been correct. Ukraine's military has not been swept aside, Kyiv has not fallen, the West did in fact impose sanctions which Russia is crumpling under, and the economic situation has not forced a settlement where Russia gets to keep its gains in Donbas. This is also in spite of the goalpost shifting wherein "the West won't impose sanctions" became "well, they imposed sanctions but they won't actually do anything" to "well, the sanctions didn't go as far as they could have gone therefore they really aren't sanctions".

    The funny thing is I don't think you realise that you are doing very much the same thing as Shalcker and Yuppie in that all of you are putting forth opinions that buttress a "Russia stronk" narrative - in your case, it's insisting that the geopolitical situation of the late and post-Soviet era is the same as that of the present day despite all the indications to the contrary.
    All you do is put up a classic strawman argument.

    You want to respond to what we discuss now or you will keep up putting more words into my mouth from discussion a year and a half ago and then refuting these constructs you create?

    I don't think this thread is "Look at how Gaidax was wrong about some stuff I think he wrote a year and a half ago". You want to bash me on that one? Feel free to open an exclusive thread for that, instead of wasting my time here.

  8. #32788
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iphie View Post
    Bulgaria and Romania don't have Black Sea shores anymore? Both are NATO members as well.
    They do, but Turkey is the one that has been trying to play both sides, and has the majority of the NATO naval forces in the Black Sea. Turkey's strategically powerful position is the whole reason they're even part of NATO, even though they rarely align with everyone else's interests. Romania and Bulgaria already are supporting Ukraine and have expressed overt hostility towards Russia's actions. Turkey is the wildcard.

  9. #32789
    The Unstoppable Force Gaidax's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lynarii View Post
    They do, but Turkey is the one that has been trying to play both sides, and has the majority of the NATO naval forces in the Black Sea. Turkey's strategically powerful position is the whole reason they're even part of NATO, even though they rarely align with everyone else's interests. Romania and Bulgaria already are supporting Ukraine and have expressed overt hostility towards Russia's actions. Turkey is the wildcard.
    Turkey does what Erdogan wants, I do however expect him to tame his attitude a tad now that he clinched another term.

    Much of all that last year's BS with NATO was his attempt to woo the nationalists by showing them how he's a big defender of Turkish national interests and how his balls are really big and important to the point he can prevent whole country or two joining NATO, in hopes for this to somehow pull him through given less than stellar economic and social performance of his government.

    This trick did work and now he will chill for a few years secure in his chair. Note how he literally reversed his economic policy the moment election was over and he is no longer in danger of losing presidency. He will do the same in quite a few other areas.

  10. #32790
    https://www.reuters.com/markets/curr...ns-2023-06-30/

    Any way you slice it the rouble continues its downward slide as the war drags on. Still higher than its lowest point after the initial invasion, but it'll get back there at this pace.

  11. #32791
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    Turkey does what Erdogan wants, I do however expect him to tame his attitude a tad now that he clinched another term.

    Much of all that last year's BS with NATO was his attempt to woo the nationalists by showing them how he's a big defender of Turkish national interests and how his balls are really big and important to the point he can prevent whole country or two joining NATO, in hopes for this to somehow pull him through given less than stellar economic and social performance of his government.

    This trick did work and now he will chill for a few years secure in his chair. Note how he literally reversed his economic policy the moment election was over and he is no longer in danger of losing presidency. He will do the same in quite a few other areas.
    It's not quite that simple. Erdogan wants, more than anything else, to retain and expand his power. And one of the most guaranteed methods to weaken a government is to have instability in the food supply. People get very angry very fast if they can't eat. If Black Sea fishing is tainted by radioactive runoff, he has to respond to that. How he would respond I'm not sure, but that's not something he can sit back and try and ignore without looking weak and incapable.

    A population's tune changes quickly when what they considered someone else's problem becomes theirs.

  12. #32792
    The Unstoppable Force Gaidax's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lynarii View Post
    It's not quite that simple. Erdogan wants, more than anything else, to retain and expand his power. And one of the most guaranteed methods to weaken a government is to have instability in the food supply. People get very angry very fast if they can't eat. If Black Sea fishing is tainted by radioactive runoff, he has to respond to that. How he would respond I'm not sure, but that's not something he can sit back and try and ignore without looking weak and incapable.

    A population's tune changes quickly when what they considered someone else's problem becomes theirs.
    I'd say he'd deal with it once it becomes a reality.

    I wouldn't expect him to outright jump into NATO/US/EU warm embrace, he's pretty happy being a wildcard - it makes his asking price higher in the international dealings.

    He would probably approach West more next year or two, but just enough to not break relations with the other side.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Lynarii View Post
    A population's tune changes quickly when what they considered someone else's problem becomes theirs.
    Given how fucked Turkey's population is, much thanks to Erdogan, and him STILL winning presidency, I would not count on that so fast.

  13. #32793
    Why would russia blow the facility without the intention to cause damage? If they don't want to cause damage then it's pointless to blow it. Scaring doesn't work, they are not facing idiots. I suppose they are under lots of pressure there and they prefer suicide over losing.

  14. #32794
    The Unstoppable Force Gaidax's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vampiregenesis View Post
    Why would russia blow the facility without the intention to cause damage? If they don't want to cause damage then it's pointless to blow it.
    I mean, who knows what really goes through their heads, I and others can only guess.

    So, I guess, it's yet another pressure instrument they can employ on the West, specifically on the populace there to somehow do just enough psychological pressure to have another Hungary on their side, or well rather another Hungary constantly putting sticks into EU wheels when it comes to Russia.

    Chernobyl is a big ooga booga and there will be people calling for more diplomacy to stop the potential disaster from happening, even if it means making deals with Russia. And staging this circus would rattle the nest.

    ---

    Then maybe they also want to make it a sort of a stopper for Ukraine and its troops itself to make them steer clear of that area, in hopes Ukraine won't want to gamble and potentially lose with that one.

    After all they already blew up a dam and flooded dozen settlements and towns, so they are not beneath doing some more of that if needed to stall the counteroffensive.
    Last edited by Gaidax; 2023-07-05 at 09:17 PM.

  15. #32795
    Brewmaster Cynical Asshole's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    The way things are going, if Russia blows the facility up and releases radioactivity the chances are that it will largely be blown over Russian land anyways. And they'll blame it on NATO...somehow.
    It's very clear how. The majority of Russians only see the Russian state sponsored media, and there is no one else to offer counterpoints. So whatever Russia Today says, that is ultimate truth for Russians. Putin can say literally anything and Russians will believe it, and only a tiny minority of Russians, who are actually connected to the Internet will see other evidence and points of view, and if they dare say anything...well that's what the FSB is for.

  16. #32796
    The Unstoppable Force Gaidax's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cynical Asshole View Post
    Putin can say literally anything and Russians will believe it, and only a tiny minority of Russians, who are actually connected to the Internet.
    You really underestimate Russian people. First of all the "tiny minority connected to the Internet" stands at almost 90% and secondly - people know very well what's going on, it's just that they can't openly yap about it everywhere nowadays, just like in the good ol' days.

    Russian government does what it can to batten the hatches, but they are FAR FAR from having a Great Firewall of China level of Internet policing. They will get there eventually, but right now - people are online, they visit foreign sites just fine, they have their online communities, and they know what Telegram and so on is.

    You had almost 2 decades of Western education going on there until Putin started with his bullshit in late 2000s, it's not something you can just axe in 2 years they started introducing draconian laws aimed at fighting spread of the so-called "fake news", as they say it.

  17. #32797
    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    The way things are going, if Russia blows the facility up and releases radioactivity the chances are that it will largely be blown over Russian land anyways. And they'll blame it on NATO...somehow.
    The winds are blowing towards Europe for the next three days - precisely when russia has reportedly ordered its staff to leave and its propagandists are saying Ukraine will attack the place.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Lynarii View Post
    They do, but Turkey is the one that has been trying to play both sides, and has the majority of the NATO naval forces in the Black Sea. Turkey's strategically powerful position is the whole reason they're even part of NATO, even though they rarely align with everyone else's interests. Romania and Bulgaria already are supporting Ukraine and have expressed overt hostility towards Russia's actions. Turkey is the wildcard.
    Turkey is now going to be sending its T-155 Self Propelled Howitzers to Ukraine, which is based on the excellent South Korean K9 model.

  18. #32798
    Quote Originally Posted by Crispin View Post
    Ukraine would have been Russia now without western help.

    Could the west do more? Sure, but Ukraine is neither a NATO or EU member.
    but they WERE in the process of joining NATO and therefore should have been treated as if they were a member. using the war as an excuse to back off just set the stupidest and most blatantly selfish and cowardly precedent

  19. #32799
    is the mobikcube real

    also lol at prigs disguises

  20. #32800
    Quote Originally Posted by rayvio View Post
    but they WERE in the process of joining NATO and therefore should have been treated as if they were a member.
    Not really, and also that's not how treaties work.

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