Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Vonazak]

I think in large it was because Russia didn't know either.

The top level general thinks he has 10k tanks. The guy under him knows he has 8k. The guy below that is pretty sure he has 5k. The actual engineer in the vehicle yard knows of the 2k tanks stationed there only a quarter can actually drive ever again.

Unless you have a spy in the actual stockpile counting operational equipment your intelligence is going to be off, because thanks to corruption and middle management covering their asses only those people actually handling the equipment know what is real and what only exists on paper.

American intelligence agencies know about the corruption of the Russian institutions. I can only hope that the American Empire focuses on the Pacific and let the Russians bled themselves to death in the Ukrainian front.

China is the real threat to the west, Russia can be contained by the Europeans, China is almost unstoppable and they are expanding their sphere of influence too fast.

[Elder Millennial]

Please. If NATO proper went to all out war with Russia, there would be 100:1 casualty ratios all across the board.

I truly question whether the Russians would even bother putting up a fight.

It's like....If we lose...we might get a functional democracy, a less corrupt police force, functioning government services, better wages, more access to consumer goods.

Why bother?

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No, I don't think Russia can. This is not Soviet era any more, where they can completely strong-arm their citizens into service and just deal with economic/demographic outcome of the loss in a totalitarian style. Loosing 1/7 of it's population is really hard to deal with.

You went kinda overboard with that number.

It's easy to convince people to fight to death against an enemy that literally wants to genocide 9/10 of your population and keep the rest as slaves.

Aka, the fucking Nazis.

Much harder to convince people that they need to die against an enemy that...won't take anything from you, won't harm you and starts fixing shit for you the micro second it won a fight.

Unironically the best thing that would have happened to the Russian people in the last 800 years would be a NATO occupation.

[YUPPIE]

I truly question whether the Russians would even bother putting up a fight.

It's like....If we lose...we might get a functional democracy, a less corrupt police force, functioning government services, better wages, more access to consumer goods.

Russians will get those maybe in 100+ years if they surrender. The world isn't going to just lift sanctions if they call it quits. This generation of Russians will now see surrendering as the same as death with this in mind. On the other hand, winning/victory will be seen as forcing the West into compliance and undoing those sanctions.

They will fight to the death.

[Kallisto]

But Sweden can get bent apparently...

Already surrounded by NATO. Also in the EU where there is basically it's own version of Article 5 which I think is Article 42 (section 7)

[Twdft]

Russians will get those maybe in 100+ years if they surrender. The world isn't going to just lift sanctions if they call it quits. This generation of Russians will now see surrendering as the same as death with this in mind. On the other hand, winning/victory will be seen as forcing the West into compliance and undoing those sanctions.

They will fight to the death.

It's just a matter of how ruSSia calls it quits. If the Russian people are able to kick the ruSSian government to the curb and build a democratic state western sanction will be dropped in half a second. Just look at where Germany is now. That's the thing you will never understand, western people will help you if you make it clear you actually want and deserve to be helped.

Also: rebuilding Ukraine will bring a shitload of money to western corporations. I'm sure there are beancounters already jizzing in their pants at night dreaming of all the contracts to be had after the war. The thought of getting in on bringing Russia up to western standards will make them ejaculate 24/7

[YUPPIE]

If the Russian people are able to kick the ruSSian government to the curb and build a democratic state western sanction will be dropped in half a second.

That will never happen though for a myriad of reasons.

[Azadina]

and deserve to be helped.

That rules out RuZZia for couple millenia.

They will fight to the death.

Don't tease oh great prophet. It's not nice.

[Corvus]

To mark day 500 of russia's 3 day operation, Zelensky visited Snake Island to lay a wreath. Meanwhile pootie stays hidden away, only to run in fear the moment a minor mutiny not even aimed at him happens.

[rayvio]

if you want god to stop war pray the god and he shall hear you and vanquish the evil from the lands of the GOD

pretty sure a lot of people have been praying for peace for thousands of years and we're still having a whole lot of war going on...

Russia can handle 22 millions dead, can NATO handle 220k?

I hope it will never comes to that, because everyone will lose.

in war, everyone loses. just one side tends to lose less

[postman1782]

Not without invoking the same casualties Ukraine has. I mean, even if Ukraine beats Russia, the damage and loss of life to beat back a clownshow of a military power is immeasurable

Not really, if the US military were to be involved, the casualties would be mainly on the Russian side, like Ukraine is doing now.

[Corvus]

Back before gulf war 1, the expectation was the coalition would take heavy losses. It turned out very one sided.

Russia's mitary has degraded to largely the tech level of the Iraqis while NATO has advanced a lot.

[Jastall]

Russia can handle 22 millions dead, can NATO handle 220k?

I hope it will never comes to that, because everyone will lose.

Losing 22 million young, fit men would absolutely nuke Russia's demographics back into the 19th century or something like that. It would be a complete disaster. It's not the Soviet Union and definitely could never support such losses. Losing 200k men would cause public outrage in NATO countries but barely be a blip on their available manpower. So yes, in the scenario you present NATO can handle it better.

Not that it's a scenario to wish for, or that will ever come to pass. No country in NATO has any sort of interest in war with Russia. Having them kneecap themselves slowly but surely is far safer and probably just as effective when it comes down to it.

[Corvus]

On paper russia has a population of 147 million. I say on paper because russia fudges numbers a lot plus they had a million+ dead from covid and another million flee the country. 22 million is about their entire male population between 20 and 40. That works pretty much collapse their economy and country.

[Elder Millennial]

People love to fantasize about the endless waves of Russians flooding the battlefield willing to die for the motherland.

Here's a bit of a tidbit they kinda miss.

The Soviet Union is not Russia. By percentage of population the Russians weren't the ones who did most of the dying fighting the Nazis. It was the Belorussians and the Ukrainians.

[Logwyn]

Russia can handle 22 millions dead, can NATO handle 220k?

I hope it will never comes to that, because everyone will lose.

Losing 15% of a county's population tends to hurt that country. The entire population of NATO is roughly 954.55 million people. 220l of that is like 0.02%. In raw numbers, I think NATO would be fine.....

[Corvus]

The soviet union also had a much bigger and much younger population, not the inverted pyramid it is today.

[Flarelaine]

If we're talking about demographics: Russia has a dwindling and aging population, but there is one segment that is proportionally younger and is growing.

Muslims.



This is photo from last week of a crowd turning out for the Eid prayer. In Moscow. Source.

Russia is on track to become a Muslim-majority country. Not next year, maybe not even in this century, but the trends point that way. We know that not only is being Orthodox part of their identity - for a lot of them, anyway - but the Church is also an arm of the government. (No wonder they can see eye to eye with other Christo-fascists). Has been for centuries and though the Bolsheviks decided to ditch them, even Stalin allowed them back to solidify national unity during the war.

I've read opinions (and I'm inclined to agree) that the real point of invading Ukraine was adding several million Orthodox believers to their population. The mass abduction of children certainly seems to support this.

[Cynical Asshole]

So it seems like Erdogan is turning his back on his buddy - Putin, by supporting Ukraine's membership to NATO as well as releasing the Azov fighters to Ukraine.

[Iphie]

I've read opinions (and I'm inclined to agree) that the real point of invading Ukraine was adding several million Orthodox believers to their population. The mass abduction of children certainly seems to support this.

I'm not sure if it's specifically for the believers but adding population is definitely one of the goals, which would only have worked if they willingly joined, as 40+million people who don't want to be a part of your population is a recipe for disaster if they make up nearly 25% of your population.

[Elder Millennial]

If we're talking about demographics: Russia has a dwindling and aging population, but there is one segment that is proportionally younger and is growing.

Muslims.



This is photo from last week of a crowd turning out for the Eid prayer. In Moscow. Source.

Russia is on track to become a Muslim-majority country. Not next year, maybe not even in this century, but the trends point that way. We know that not only is being Orthodox part of their identity - for a lot of them, anyway - but the Church is also an arm of the government. (No wonder they can see eye to eye with other Christo-fascists). Has been for centuries and though the Bolsheviks decided to ditch them, even Stalin allowed them back to solidify national unity during the war.

I've read opinions (and I'm inclined to agree) that the real point of invading Ukraine was adding several million Orthodox believers to their population. The mass abduction of children certainly seems to support this.

I don't quite grasp the whole "Russia is Christian and Orthodox" narrative.

Last I checked, just under 50% of the population identified as Christian and only about 40% of the population is actually Orthodox. And those are just who identify as such. I wonder what's the actual rate of church going and such. They are probably not more meaningfully religious than the Western European heathens, and they are definitely way less religious than Americans for example.