Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Saradain]

Obama / Biden have a history of setting red lines and then doing nothing when they got crossed. There is no way Biden will start WW3 over Poland. Biden will let Russia have Poland.

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Putin is feeling pressure at home for not being aggressive enough in this war. If the Russian people revolted against Putin, the war would widen, not end.

And then Poland wipes out Belarus/Russian army entirely on its own, and you woke up from this weird dream. If only.

Now why you write your fan-fic in this thread, is beyond my understanding.

[Kaleredar]

Obama / Biden have a history of setting red lines and then doing nothing when they got crossed. There is no way Biden will start WW3 over Poland. Biden will let Russia have Poland.

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Putin is feeling pressure at home for not being aggressive enough in this war. If the Russian people revolted against Putin, the war would widen, not end.

You know, not many people can buy into your rambling conspiracies when you post one thing, get it body-slammed by 15 posters for how insane it is, and then run and hide like you didn’t see a bunch of people tear your post to shreds.

[Lynarii]

Biden wouldn't have to worry about starting WW3 if Poland was seriously invaded, because it would already be in full swing by the time he got the news. Poland is a NATO and EU nation. If they sit back and do nothing, both organizations cease to exist. And the EU in particular won't allow that. You think Germany wants a border with Russia again? If Germany is going to be fighting against Russia, do you think they'd rather do it in Germany where their citizens are dying, or in Poland, where they are not? France? Britain? You have other nuclear powers here who are VERY invested in keeping any fighting very far away from their borders. They have nothing to lose, and everything to gain, by stopping any aggression at the Polish border. Because it is easier, and safer, for them to do it there.

The US is in the same boat really. The whole reason for NATO existing is because the US does not, under any circumstances, want there to be a hostile fleet in the North Atlantic Ocean. This is a lynchpin of how the US protects itself. There is no world in which they sit back and watch WW3 unfold in Europe without getting involved, they can not allow a hostile nation to have the European ports.

So yeah, the other Western countries do in fact care quite a bit about Poland. They will not sit back and let it fall.

[Jastall]

Biden wouldn't have to worry about starting WW3 if Poland was seriously invaded, because it would already be in full swing by the time he got the news. Poland is a NATO and EU nation. If they sit back and do nothing, both organizations cease to exist. And the EU in particular won't allow that. You think Germany wants a border with Russia again? If Germany is going to be fighting against Russia, do you think they'd rather do it in Germany where their citizens are dying, or in Poland, where they are not? France? Britain? You have other nuclear powers here who are VERY invested in keeping any fighting very far away from their borders. They have nothing to lose, and everything to gain, by stopping any aggression at the Polish border. Because it is easier, and safer, for them to do it there.

The US is in the same boat really. The whole reason for NATO existing is because the US does not, under any circumstances, want there to be a hostile fleet in the North Atlantic Ocean. This is a lynchpin of how the US protects itself. There is no world in which they sit back and watch WW3 unfold in Europe without getting involved, they can not allow a hostile nation to have the European ports.

So yeah, the other Western countries do in fact care quite a bit about Poland. They will not sit back and let it fall.

To say nothing of the fact that even if Poland stood alone (fat chance), it would more than likely kick whatever remains of Russia's ass. All the Russians can do is dig in to keep Ukraine from reclaiming more territory, they're in no position to ever open another front, the military of Belarus is a joke, and Wagner by itself can hardly do anything against a nation with a demi-modern military.

This again assumes NATO would do nothing which is extremely unlikely and something Putin will absolutely not test.

[Forogil]

So yeah, the other Western countries do in fact care quite a bit about Poland. They will not sit back and let it fall.

And the actual worry hasn't primarily been Poland, but the baltic states - because they are smaller, easier to attack, and were part of the Soviet Union.

That's also why NATO have been focused on stationing trip-wire forces there (called Enhanced Forward Presence).

That the talk isn't about the baltic states - but the even less realistic Poland, makes it even more likely that it is just posturing.

[Makabreska]

Biden wouldn't have to worry about starting WW3 if Poland was seriously invaded, because it would already be in full swing by the time he got the news. Poland is a NATO and EU nation. If they sit back and do nothing, both organizations cease to exist. And the EU in particular won't allow that. You think Germany wants a border with Russia again? If Germany is going to be fighting against Russia, do you think they'd rather do it in Germany where their citizens are dying, or in Poland, where they are not? France? Britain? You have other nuclear powers here who are VERY invested in keeping any fighting very far away from their borders. They have nothing to lose, and everything to gain, by stopping any aggression at the Polish border. Because it is easier, and safer, for them to do it there.

The US is in the same boat really. The whole reason for NATO existing is because the US does not, under any circumstances, want there to be a hostile fleet in the North Atlantic Ocean. This is a lynchpin of how the US protects itself. There is no world in which they sit back and watch WW3 unfold in Europe without getting involved, they can not allow a hostile nation to have the European ports.

So yeah, the other Western countries do in fact care quite a bit about Poland. They will not sit back and let it fall.

TFW peeps treat my country as a buffer zone.

[Lynarii]

TFW peeps treat my country as a buffer zone.

I mean, like it or not that's how geopolitics have been. That's one of the major reasons that anyone was even talking about Ukraine joining NATO originally, even though we all knew it was heavily corrupt and not ideologically aligned. Poland has become important enough that it doesn't want to be the eastern buffer country, so to protect themselves they want someone east of them to be the new border. That's why Poland has been one of the biggest supporters of Ukraine ever since the fighting started, you don't want it happening in your country any more than anyone else does. It's cynical as all hell, but it's also vastly reduced the number of major wars that have happened, this latest invasion notwithstanding.

[Cynical Asshole]

The US is in the same boat really. The whole reason for NATO existing is because the US does not, under any circumstances, want there to be a hostile fleet in the North Atlantic Ocean. This is a lynchpin of how the US protects itself. There is no world in which they sit back and watch WW3 unfold in Europe without getting involved, they can not allow a hostile nation to have the European ports.

So yeah, the other Western countries do in fact care quite a bit about Poland. They will not sit back and let it fall.

The US doesn't seem to be concerned with China and Russia encroaching the country from the south as well as Cuba. Basically all south-american countries as well as Cuba are bending over to Chinese influence and by extension Russian influence.

Should WW3 be a thing, it seems like the US would have to first conquer their own continent before lending aid to Europe.

[Gabriel]

TFW peeps treat my country as a buffer zone.

It ain't so bad being a buffer zone country. We get to shoot at Russian military if they decide to push their luck.

In other news, the price of turnips for our resident shills is going up.

[Cynical Asshole]

It ain't so bad being a buffer zone country. We get to shoot at Russian military if they decide to push their luck.

In other news, the price of turnips for our resident shills is going up.

Not an issue for Russians. They went through famine that killed millions, and they didn't rise up. The social asshole of both the Russian and Chinese people is quite large and can take a lot of pounding before feeling anything.

[Xyonai]

Obama / Biden have a history of setting red lines and then doing nothing when they got crossed. There is no way Biden will start WW3 over Poland. Biden will let Russia have Poland.

Hi, it's Xyonai, here to key you in on something I like to call 'The passage of time'. See, things nowadays aren't the same as they were ten years ago; back then our centrist president really didn't want to miff Russia, because too many people were under the delusion that Russia would ease up on being massive dipshits if they were treated nicely and brought into the western trade world. In a way this extended into our limp response to Syria, who remains a valuable Russian ally.

But now, after this botched war and Russia broadcasting their fondness for raping and murdering non-combatants and weaponizing grain shipments to starve the world, most of the western world has wised up to the fact that Russia will never not be a dipshit and are much more keen on putting their thumbs in their eyes. See; Us giving Ukraine a bunch of guns, intel, and training.

So this idea that Biden will just shrug his shoulders and do nothing as Russia invades a member of fucking NATO is so delusional I'm more than certain you're taking the piss to farm outrage responses.

[Makabreska]

Not an issue for Russians. They went through famine that killed millions, and they didn't rise up. The social asshole of both the Russian and Chinese people is quite large and can take a lot of pounding before feeling anything.

Different times, not nearly close enough lvl of terror and control over population they have today. Today Russians like their iPhones and other commodities very much.

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So this idea that Biden will just shrug his shoulders and do nothing as Russia invades a member of fucking NATO is so delusional I'm more than certain you're taking the piss to farm outrage responses.

Well, it's a guy who has a serious war fetish. He dreamt of american civil war and was saying, among other things, that Putin will send nookz to US in November. Very curious case.

[Forogil]

The US doesn't seem to be concerned with China and Russia encroaching the country from the south as well as Cuba. Basically all south-american countries as well as Cuba are bending over to Chinese influence and by extension Russian influence.

Only Russia thinks that they are the ones influencing the Chinese in their partnership.

Should WW3 be a thing, it seems like the US would have to first conquer their own continent before lending aid to Europe.

I don't see any reason for that. This is not the game Risk where you have to pick up continents in a global conflict.

[Flarelaine]

Biden wouldn't have to worry about starting WW3 if Poland was seriously invaded, because it would already be in full swing by the time he got the news. Poland is a NATO and EU nation. If they sit back and do nothing, both organizations cease to exist. And the EU in particular won't allow that. You think Germany wants a border with Russia again? If Germany is going to be fighting against Russia, do you think they'd rather do it in Germany where their citizens are dying, or in Poland, where they are not? France? Britain? You have other nuclear powers here who are VERY invested in keeping any fighting very far away from their borders. They have nothing to lose, and everything to gain, by stopping any aggression at the Polish border. Because it is easier, and safer, for them to do it there.

The US is in the same boat really. The whole reason for NATO existing is because the US does not, under any circumstances, want there to be a hostile fleet in the North Atlantic Ocean. This is a lynchpin of how the US protects itself. There is no world in which they sit back and watch WW3 unfold in Europe without getting involved, they can not allow a hostile nation to have the European ports.

So yeah, the other Western countries do in fact care quite a bit about Poland. They will not sit back and let it fall.

Let's not discount the Poles themselves. Global Firepower considers their army the 6th strongest in NATO, ahead of Germany, Spain and Canada. They had been among the few NATO members states to actually reach the 2% benchmark in military expenditures and they are now arming themselves with everything they can get their hands on and in these days that's a LOT. Plus like the Baltics, they consider the prospect of fighting the Russians a when, not an if.

[Cynical Asshole]

Only Russia thinks that they are the ones influencing the Chinese in their partnership.


I don't see any reason for that. This is not the game Risk where you have to pick up continents in a global conflict.

South-America is a foothold for Chinese and Russian reinforcements.

How can the US secure their country in a war, if Russians and Chinese keeping bringing stuff on the American continent by landing in Brazil or Venezuela?! America would have to make sure they can't get a foothold on the American continent at all.

[Gaidax]

TFW peeps treat my country as a buffer zone.

Due to the location, it was always a country big bois trampled on, on their way to fight the other big bois.

[Forogil]

South-America is a foothold for Chinese and Russian reinforcements.

No, it is more complicated and unfortunately South-America has major real issues to tackle.

How can the US secure their country in a war, if Russians and Chinese keeping bringing stuff on the American continent by landing in Brazil or Venezuela?! America would have to make sure they can't get a foothold on the American continent at all.

If there is a real war between the US and Russia and/or China the least of our worries will be South-America. The US will both work to stop reinforcements at sea and before they reach the southern border.

The reason we are discussing Poland (and Belarus) as buffer zones between Russia and the "west" is that they fairly flat and thus both sides think that it would be fairly quick in a land war (a similar reason explains why Ukraine is primarily attacked from the east and not north). Read "Prisoners of Geography" by Tim Marshal if you want to know more (including where China is actually likely to expand).

[zealo]

South-America is a foothold for Chinese and Russian reinforcements.

How can the US secure their country in a war, if Russians and Chinese keeping bringing stuff on the American continent by landing in Brazil or Venezuela?! America would have to make sure they can't get a foothold on the American continent at all.

In a conventional war, with their navy.

The real world isn’t a video game where logistics behave on a basis of effectively being teleportation magics.

China would have a real hard time doing what you’re suggesting on any actually significant scale so long as the US navy isn’t resting on the ocean floor.

[ghotihook]

South-America is a foothold for Chinese and Russian reinforcements.

How can the US secure their country in a war, if Russians and Chinese keeping bringing stuff on the American continent by landing in Brazil or Venezuela?! America would have to make sure they can't get a foothold on the American continent at all.

China would have difficultly in transferring troops by sea to take over Taiwan. There is zero chance they are a concern transferring troops to South America.

[Lynarii]

Let's not discount the Poles themselves. Global Firepower considers their army the 6th strongest in NATO, ahead of Germany, Spain and Canada. They had been among the few NATO members states to actually reach the 2% benchmark in military expenditures and they are now arming themselves with everything they can get their hands on and in these days that's a LOT. Plus like the Baltics, they consider the prospect of fighting the Russians a when, not an if.

I'm not discounting the Poles themselves. They are one of the few NATO countries that considered a conventional war possible, and prepared themselves in case they need to fight it. With one of the best armed and best trained land armies in the regions, they might not even need help should they get attacked by the full might of Russia. Belarus or Wagner would get absolutely crushed. The point that I was responding to though was the idea that everyone else would abandon Poland, which I don't think would happen. Poland is powerful on it's own, and they wouldn't be alone.