1. #33581
    Quote Originally Posted by Vampiregenesis View Post
    I'm not from Russia, how did you come to this conclusion?

    I just hear a lot in the news, that the counteroffensive is slowed down by landmines and it doesn't go as expected, I mean after all this time there isn't a definite counter to this static defense? There seems to be technology for everything these days, this is not ww2.

    If you are going to blame me for my opinion, then you should blame worldwide news because that's my source.

    Btw this counteroffensive was overhyped, maybe it would be wiser if they simply started the operations without saying anything or talk about a big "great" offensive, they gave the impression that they will roflstomp the opponent, this will ruin their image. For a regular spectator, the hype they created could only mean that they could easily deal with all these common defenses. It's not like, russia is throwing nukes on them.
    Fair enough, you raise several points, allow me to answer.

    1) yes, mine clearing equipment exists and would make quick work of those mines. Ukraine only has a limited amount of these though, and they have the be very careful about their deployment because Russia holds air superiority.

    2) the reason ukraine “hyped” their offensive is mostly because they need to drive the momentum of western aid. In reality the counteroffensive isn’t going much slower than the WW2 D-day offensive, but we westerners are much more ready to see our tax money flow towards ukrainian military aid if we expect a war movie like result.

  2. #33582
    Quote Originally Posted by Vampiregenesis View Post
    There seems to be technology for everything these days, this is not ww2.
    Technology on its own doesn't necessarily win on its own.

    (Conventional) modern war is about combined arms warfare, a.k.a. the combination of multiple branches of armed forces working tightly together to achieve results.
    That sounds easy in theory but is difficult in practice, Russia fucked that up during their first offensive and Ukraine doesn't magically make that happen just because they have western material - which arguably makes it harder initially because you have soldiers working with tech they have no experience off.
    Nevermind that Ukraine barely has an airforce and thus one branch of arms is largely left open for the Russians as long as they stay out of range of ground based anti air technology.

    Furthermore, Russian strategy seems to have switched completely to just digging in and outlasting Ukraine until western support fizzles out.
    Sure, they could've sent forces back to train new potential offensive tactics during the first half of 2023...or they have them set up massive defensive fortifications at every possible angle.
    It may be cliche to compare that to a video game, but if you've ever played a RTS game where the opponent has decided that their endgame is to stall as long as possible and invest all their resources into defense, you need overwhelming power to break that quickly or patience to peel that slowly apart.
    Ukraine doesn't have overwhelming power to just smash through, so it's going slowly.

    Russians don't seem to have any massive gaps in their defense anymore, unlike previous year where Ukraine was able to take large sways of land back because some parts of northeastern Ukraine were only sparsely defended.
    Last edited by Kralljin; 2023-08-04 at 09:15 PM.

  3. #33583
    Quote Originally Posted by Kralljin View Post
    Technology on its own doesn't necessarily win on its own.

    (Conventional) modern war is about combined arms warfare, a.k.a. the combination of multiple branches of armed forces working tightly together to achieve results.
    That sounds easy in theory but is difficult in practice, Russia fucked that up during their first offensive and Ukraine doesn't magically make that happen just because they have western material - which arguably makes it harder initially because you have soldiers working with tech they have no experience off.
    Nevermind that Ukraine barely has an airforce and thus one branch of arms is largely left open for the Russians as long as they stay out of range of ground based anti air technology.

    Furthermore, Russian strategy seems to have switched completely to just digging in and outlasting Ukraine until western support fizzles out.
    Sure, they could've sent forces back to train new potential offensive tactics during the first half of 2023...or they have them set up massive defensive fortifications at every possible angle.
    It may be cliche to compare that to a video game, but if you've ever played a RTS game where the opponent has decided that their endgame is to stall as long as possible and invest all their resources into defense, you need overwhelming power to break that quickly or patience to peel that slowly apart.
    Ukraine doesn't have overwhelming power to just smash through, so it's going slowly.

    Russians don't seem to have any massive gaps in their defense anymore, unlike previous year where Ukraine was able to take large sways of land back because some parts of northeastern Ukraine were only sparsely defended.
    The video game comparison is apt. Russia is literally turtling until, hopefully for them, Western support and Ukrainian manpower dries up and they're forced to the negotiating table so that Russia gets to keep Crimea and, perhaps, the parts of the Donbass they want. Will it work? Depends on said Western support and if the Ukrainians can understand this and play the long game by not throwing away their resources and experienced army as well.
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  4. #33584
    Quote Originally Posted by Vampiregenesis View Post
    If you are going to blame me for my opinion, then you should blame worldwide news because that's my source.
    Here we go again, foreign news... world wide news, what exactly is your source, link it if you want to have any credibility.

    By the way there is no easy way to clear landmines, do you have a suggestion.

  5. #33585
    The weird part is russia isn't really turtling down. That massive defensive line with tens of millions of mines that they probably spent billions on? They refuse to pull back to it and actually dig in.

    Not only are they fighting ahead of it, they launch constant meat waves as counter attacks - it's russian doctrine. It doesn't make sense but it's what they do.

    It's part of the reason things ate going slow. Ukraine doesn't need to attack the lines heavily when russia keeps coming to them on the open.

    The ship that was damaged yesterday may not be able to be repaired - a few others were damaged earlier in the war and were decommissioned as there were no parts to repair them as they were built in Poland back when it was under soviet control.

    And there are also peace talks going to happen in Saudi Arabia. Interestingly all the BRICS countries but russia will be there plus others from the global south. Yes China will be there while Ukraine's proposals are put forth and discussed.

  6. #33586
    The Insane draynay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vampiregenesis View Post
    If you are going to blame me for my opinion, then you should blame worldwide news because that's my source.
    Don't blame me, blame the nebulous unnamed sources that tell me what to think!
    /s

  7. #33587
    Reports of explosions near the Kerch bridge. Not the bridge itself though traffic was stopped again. It seems a russian oil tanker was hit, taking out its engines. It seems not to gave been carrying oil but weapons.

  8. #33588
    The Unstoppable Force Belize's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    Reports of explosions near the Kerch bridge. Not the bridge itself though traffic was stopped again. It seems a russian oil tanker was hit, taking out its engines. It seems not to gave been carrying oil but weapons.
    Kind of a shame, taking out an oil tanker under the bridge would have been two birds with 1 HIMAR

  9. #33589
    Quote Originally Posted by Jastall View Post
    The video game comparison is apt. Russia is literally turtling until, hopefully for them, Western support and Ukrainian manpower dries up and they're forced to the negotiating table so that Russia gets to keep Crimea and, perhaps, the parts of the Donbass they want. Will it work? Depends on said Western support and if the Ukrainians can understand this and play the long game by not throwing away their resources and experienced army as well.
    On video games, if the opponent has built 39432939239 towers and you have a big strong army ready to push his base, you just create a few siege units to take the towers down while having your big army covering these units so it's never efficient or credible defense to build so many towers, you make those sparingly in few occasions. Well, real life is different and there might not be a good counter for static defenses such as this.

    Excuse me but Ukraine not having a proper air force is almost suicide isn't it? I'm pretty sure I read a bunch of battles where even few planes made all the difference and US strategy also relies on getting air superiority quickly.

    Shouldn't the west give them some planes too? why starting this while not being properly equipped?

  10. #33590
    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post

    Not only are they fighting ahead of it, they launch constant meat waves as counter attacks - it's russian doctrine. It doesn't make sense but it's what they do.

    It's part of the reason things ate going slow. Ukraine doesn't need to attack the lines heavily when russia keeps coming to them on the open.
    wait im not seeing any of this its all trench storming videos in the south and static positions getting wrecked around bakhmut (which is a stupid place to defend as the ukranians found out).

    all half smart armies doctrine is to counter attack when assaulted.

    The Russians have adapted and learnt their lessons just as the Ukranians have, this is really going to be whos reserves run out first.

  11. #33591
    Merely a Setback Kaleredar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jastall View Post
    The video game comparison is apt. Russia is literally turtling until, hopefully for them, Western support and Ukrainian manpower dries up and they're forced to the negotiating table so that Russia gets to keep Crimea and, perhaps, the parts of the Donbass they want. Will it work? Depends on said Western support and if the Ukrainians can understand this and play the long game by not throwing away their resources and experienced army as well.
    This supposes that Russia has infinite time and resources to just hold out. But they don't. They've had logistical, resource, and morale issues since they started the war, and the government situation in Russia has only shown signs of degradation as various military officials either turn on Putin, get thrown out of windows, or... you know, stage coups. Nothing points to a stable situation in Russia, and that's letting alone the economic downspiral they've set themselves in that will beleaguer them for at least a decade to come.

    Western reliance upon Russian resources becomes less and less as time goes on as Europe wisely moves towards energy independence from Russian sources, and I see absolutely no reason for them to consider reversing that course now that they've begun in that direction. The US' contributions to the Ukrainian war effort is basically a rounding error on their military budget. The only threat to that continuing are the Russian shill pundits and talking heads trying desperately to clear their Russian paychecks and/or steal political good will away from Biden's public image of helping kick Russia's ass. If the US gets four more years of Biden, and God Almighty willing they do, I don't see any reason for that to materially change course, and I have serious doubt that Russia has the infrastructure, stability, economy, or morale to drag this war out for five more years in a meaningful way, as they've barely limped along through the last year and a half.
    “Do not lose time on daily trivialities. Do not dwell on petty detail. For all of these things melt away and drift apart within the obscure traffic of time. Live well and live broadly. You are alive and living now. Now is the envy of all of the dead.” ~ Emily3, World of Tomorrow
    Quote Originally Posted by Wells View Post
    Kaleredar is right...
    Words to live by.

  12. #33592
    12 hours ago - 47°26′N 35°52′E
    Deputy minister of defense of Ukraine: Ukrainian forces have breached the 1st Russian line of defense of in the south
    Heres hoping they can get to Tokmak within a day or two, they can really impact the Russian defense from there.

  13. #33593
    Quote Originally Posted by alach View Post
    Heres hoping they can get to Tokmak within a day or two, they can really impact the Russian defense from there.
    pretty decent tbh this is what it vaguely looks like around there :




    sry for big image spam

    im sure there must be maxar photos of the defenses as well but i cant find them atm

  14. #33594
    Footage of the attack on the cargo ship, looks to be the same as the landing ship and done by remote boat with explosives.
    https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV...one_boat_with/

  15. #33595
    Quote Originally Posted by Veggie50 View Post
    Fair enough, you raise several points, allow me to answer.

    1) yes, mine clearing equipment exists and would make quick work of those mines. Ukraine only has a limited amount of these though, and they have the be very careful about their deployment because Russia holds air superiority.
    Russia still doesn't hold air superiority (except for some occupied territories); that's one of the most baffling things in this war.
    (It's contested air space.)

    I agree that mine clearing is complicated, and adding to that both sides have the possibility to deploy mines remotely as well - including during an attack; so even if you clear a mine-field (under fire) you might get fresh mines when you try to advance (or retreat).

    Both Russia and Ukraine have used that tactic: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...-from-the-air/

    Quote Originally Posted by Veggie50 View Post
    2) the reason ukraine “hyped” their offensive is mostly because they need to drive the momentum of western aid. In reality the counteroffensive isn’t going much slower than the WW2 D-day offensive, but we westerners are much more ready to see our tax money flow towards ukrainian military aid if we expect a war movie like result.
    Pretty much for the government of Ukraine. When others report it's also a matter of getting views; "All Quiet on the Eastern and Southern Front" wouldn't sell.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Vampiregenesis View Post
    Excuse me but Ukraine not having a proper air force is almost suicide isn't it? I'm pretty sure I read a bunch of battles where even few planes made all the difference and US strategy also relies on getting air superiority quickly.
    "You go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time."

    Additionally, both Russia and Ukraine have heavy air defenses (based on the Soviet legacy; and Ukraine has gotten newer western ones as well) so it will be hard for either side to gain air superiority.

    Quote Originally Posted by Vampiregenesis View Post
    Shouldn't the west give them some planes too? why starting this while not being properly equipped?
    At least tens of Soviet-style planes have been sent to Ukraine - for use as is or for parts, but there's limited supply in the west (for obvious reasons). Switching to western planes would be good - but it takes time to train the pilots (the training is started) - and Ukraine doesn't want Russia to dig in and freeze the current borders for a few years repeating history.

    It's not like the Matrix where you just download the instructions in a few seconds.
    Clearly it would have been better if western countries had been faster with planes.

  16. #33596
    I'm incredibly disturbed by Ukraine trying to foster strengthened relations with Saudi Arabia in light of Russia threatening the global food supply recently.

    Zelenksy was even showing shaking hands with MBS (yes, that MBS) himself today.

    Saudi Arabia has kicked off a weekend summit in Jeddah, in which senior officials from some 40 countries – but not Russia – will aim to draft key principles on how to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday welcomed the wide range of countries represented in the talks that began on Saturday, including developing countries hit hard by the surge in food prices triggered by the war.
    "Truth...justice, honor, freedom! Vain indulgences, every one(...) I know what I want, and I take it. I take advantage of whatever I can, and discard that which I cannot. There is no room for sentiment or guilt."

  17. #33597
    Quote Originally Posted by YUPPIE View Post
    I'm incredibly disturbed by Ukraine trying to foster strengthened relations with Saudi Arabia in light of Russia threatening the global food supply recently.

    Zelenksy was even showing shaking hands with MBS (yes, that MBS) himself today.

    Saudi Arabia has kicked off a weekend summit in Jeddah, in which senior officials from some 40 countries – but not Russia – will aim to draft key principles on how to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday welcomed the wide range of countries represented in the talks that began on Saturday, including developing countries hit hard by the surge in food prices triggered by the war.
    Oh noes, Ukraine might have non-hostile relations with a nation that isn't invading their country.

    Such a shock and travesty....to certain compromised Russian mouthpieces upset that things aren't going well for their invasion of Ukraine.
    "My successes are my own, but my failures are due to extremist leftist liberals" - Party of Personal Responsibility

    Prediction for the future

  18. #33598
    Merely a Setback Kaleredar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    "You go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time."
    Pretty sure Russia went to war with an army they didn't have.
    “Do not lose time on daily trivialities. Do not dwell on petty detail. For all of these things melt away and drift apart within the obscure traffic of time. Live well and live broadly. You are alive and living now. Now is the envy of all of the dead.” ~ Emily3, World of Tomorrow
    Quote Originally Posted by Wells View Post
    Kaleredar is right...
    Words to live by.

  19. #33599
    Belarus has attacked Ukraine directly

    At 18:37, Air Force reported that cruise missiles entered the airspace over Kyiv Oblast. At 18:45, the missiles reached Vinnytsia Oblast. At 18:55, they reached Khmelnytskyi Oblast.

    Later, the Air Forces reported that Russian troops launched Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles on Ukraine from the Russian city of Tambov and cruise missiles from Belarus.
    "Truth...justice, honor, freedom! Vain indulgences, every one(...) I know what I want, and I take it. I take advantage of whatever I can, and discard that which I cannot. There is no room for sentiment or guilt."

  20. #33600
    Quote Originally Posted by YUPPIE View Post
    I'm incredibly disturbed by Ukraine trying to foster strengthened relations with Saudi Arabia in light of Russia threatening the global food supply recently.
    Seriously, what is wrong with you?

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