Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Poopymonster]

So... Moscow is gettting firebombed.

Even if we were to concede that this "all but confirms Ukraine is behind the incidents"...how is this "grave news"?

If you are a Russophile, it's horrible news.

[Corvus]

It still has a little ways to go to return to his value of $.007 per Ruble that it hit shortly after the start of things. But it's been on that fast-track since about November of last year.

Which is when they went to massive efforts to prop it up, but those efforts are now failing.

Considering prewar the exchange rate was 60-70 per dollar, that's a pretty big drop, making imports a lot more expensive. And all those back-door methods would have substantially mark-ups as well.

[Kaleredar]

Expect to see them playing the victim and painting Ukraine as the evil aggressor in subsequent posts.

All of them save for YUPPIE have either 1) been banned or 2) largely ignore any of the actual human tolls of the war, unless it's specifically how Russia is "beating" Ukraine in some manner. They wont even acknowledge stuff like this. To them it's a matter of saying "this is a war that Russia is fighting and WE. ARE. WINNING." Mass graves? Kidnapping children? Targeting civilians? Not even a blip on their radar. And the same goes for things blowing up in Russia.


There were a few of the "classic" Russian trolls that popped up in that news post about buying WoW pets to support Ukraine who were wringing their hands about Ukrainian nazis or somesuch bullshit, but they swiftly found out that nobody is buying that old hack propaganda from a year ago anymore. So they've basically all fled as well.

[alach]

An interesting addition to my last post;

Ukraine has captured so many weapons that Russia is 'competing with Western countries' to supply it with arms, Ukrainian colonel says

Ukraine is turning hundreds of pieces of military equipment captured from Russia back on the invading forces, a new report says.

Ukraine has scooped up over 800 Russian artillery systems, armored vehicles, and other weaponry since the start of the war, including 300 tanks, Deutsche Welle reports.

Those have then been repaired where necessary, examined for crucial military-tech information, and often put back on the battlefield to be pointed directly back at their former owners, the outlet reports.

Among the weapons captured were Russia's prized modernized T-72 tanks, it said, while many items, including Grad rocket launcher systems, fell into Ukrainian hands during last fall's stunning counteroffensive in the north and east of the country, sources told the outlet.

[Corvus]

Another attack on the Kerch bridge reported. russia says it shot down 2 missiles and there was no damage, but they say that every time there is damage and the video of the bridge seems to be showing some smoke.

[Easo]

It has been very interesting to read this thread over the past year. The degradation into old stereotypes, biases and stupid jokes has reached critical levels, with even mods joining in, after all it is all so funny, stupid backwards orc vatnik mobiks

Russia has run out of literally everything a year ago, from missiles to manpower to tanks, fights hungry, drunk and with shovels, is totally demoralized, has no idea what tactics is and so on and so forth, and yet…
First it was a month of “probing and shaping” with the rare Wester equipment, then it was a month of “exhausting Russian equipment and ability to fight”, now it is the third month of the ingenious “light infantry with minimal vehicle support tries to pass the minefields” tactic (as it turns out minefields CAN be larger than 200m x 100m squares, truly the cowardice of Russia knows no bounds!).
It all has resulted in a blip on the map – ~250km2 retaken (less now since Russia has again been advancing in the north) with whole 9 or 10 villages liberated, while first Russian defensive line has barely been reached in a single place only (Robotyne) after 2 months of efforts, much less broken through.
Western press like Politico, NYT, WP, WSJ and others with increasing frequency are publishing articles full of зрада, all of which basically point to counteroffensive becoming/being a failure, that Russia actually plays a sound defence, that there are issues with what else can be given to Ukraine and that support might be waning.

There is very roughly only a month left until mud season starts and forces everyone to halt. What then? 31x Abrams are gonna do it? F-16’s? More cruise/ballistic missiles? Magical winter assault? Another attempt next year - surely UA can just respawn new units like in RTS. After all, Russia cannot produce anything, oh wait, tone has been changing there too…

I can see only two scenarios with which this war ends – total defeat of Ukraine (more unlikely), or some type of frozen conflict. Перемога? No.
Maybe I am wrong, I hope I am wrong, and that some miracle suddenly happens, and you all can laugh at me after a year and make me eat my words. Feel free to call me out then…

P.S.
I wonder how well NATO and especially USA would fight in similar circumstances without overwhelming air control. Clearly, an impossible scenario where NATO airpower is clipped.

[Xyonai]

I think the Kherson breakthrough last year set up some unrealistic expectations of how this counter-offensive was going to shape up, with a couple months of poking and then sudden, massive territorial gains over the course of a month. And Russia's shoddy offensive capabilities since the war started also painted a picture of them being dawdling, violent morons (they are but with enough numbers you can overcome individual unit incompetence).

Sadly it seems Western support is starting to dwindle - if any recent polls about public opinion can be trusted on this - though I don't think this war will be over until either one side snatches a clear victory. Russia's leadership is doubling down after sinking so much into the conflict, and Ukraine feels like it's fighting for its right to exist.

[Corvus]

It should be pointed our mud season effects the north and east, where russia are trying to attack. In the south, where Ukraine are, it's much more limited.

And the Kherson region was liberated during the last mud season as well.

[jonnysensible]

snip

we all just want the russians to fuck off and die, why is that so bad??

[Masark]

Another attack on the Kerch bridge reported. russia says it shot down 2 missiles and there was no damage, but they say that every time there is damage and the video of the bridge seems to be showing some smoke.

The bridge is just enjoying a victory cigar after a successful defense.

[YUPPIE]

Why doesn't Ukraine honestly just directly siege Moscow at this point? With all the small incursions into Russia and attacks on Crimea despite Russia's red line warnings, it's becoming increasingly apparent they're not going to use nukes.

[Iphie]

Why doesn't Ukraine honestly just directly siege Moscow at this point? With all the small incursions into Russia and attacks on Crimea despite Russia's red line warnings, it's becoming increasingly apparent they're not going to use nukes.

Because, shining light of hyperbole, sieging Moscow is a very different beast from taking back what is yours.

The moment Ukraine sets one foot on recognised russian soil the help will dry up.

[jonnysensible]

Why doesn't Ukraine honestly just directly siege Moscow at this point? With all the small incursions into Russia and attacks on Crimea despite Russia's red line warnings, it's becoming increasingly apparent they're not going to use nukes.

i mean this sincerely yuppie, why do you think they are not 'just' doing that?

[YUPPIE]

the moment ukraine sets one foot on recognised russian soil the help will dry up.

that's fucking bullshit though. They're the enemy. They started the war. Why would anyone care if the victim strikes at the heart of the aggressor?

Support drying up for that?

[Ulmita]

It has been very interesting to read this thread over the past year. The degradation into old stereotypes, biases and stupid jokes has reached critical levels, with even mods joining in, after all it is all so funny, stupid backwards orc vatnik mobiks

Russia has run out of literally everything a year ago, from missiles to manpower to tanks, fights hungry, drunk and with shovels, is totally demoralized, has no idea what tactics is and so on and so forth, and yet…
First it was a month of “probing and shaping” with the rare Wester equipment, then it was a month of “exhausting Russian equipment and ability to fight”, now it is the third month of the ingenious “light infantry with minimal vehicle support tries to pass the minefields” tactic (as it turns out minefields CAN be larger than 200m x 100m squares, truly the cowardice of Russia knows no bounds!).
It all has resulted in a blip on the map – ~250km2 retaken (less now since Russia has again been advancing in the north) with whole 9 or 10 villages liberated, while first Russian defensive line has barely been reached in a single place only (Robotyne) after 2 months of efforts, much less broken through.
Western press like Politico, NYT, WP, WSJ and others with increasing frequency are publishing articles full of зрада, all of which basically point to counteroffensive becoming/being a failure, that Russia actually plays a sound defence, that there are issues with what else can be given to Ukraine and that support might be waning.

There is very roughly only a month left until mud season starts and forces everyone to halt. What then? 31x Abrams are gonna do it? F-16’s? More cruise/ballistic missiles? Magical winter assault? Another attempt next year - surely UA can just respawn new units like in RTS. After all, Russia cannot produce anything, oh wait, tone has been changing there too…

I can see only two scenarios with which this war ends – total defeat of Ukraine (more unlikely), or some type of frozen conflict. Перемога? No.
Maybe I am wrong, I hope I am wrong, and that some miracle suddenly happens, and you all can laugh at me after a year and make me eat my words. Feel free to call me out then…

P.S.
I wonder how well NATO and especially USA would fight in similar circumstances without overwhelming air control. Clearly, an impossible scenario where NATO airpower is clipped.

Finally someone with some logic.

PS you forgot to add that they won Bahmut with sovels...

[Forogil]

It has been very interesting to read this thread over the past year. The degradation into old stereotypes, biases and stupid jokes has reached critical levels, with even mods joining in, after all it is all so funny, stupid backwards orc vatnik mobiks

People often confuse what they want to happen with what actually happens, and that mocking the Russians (and other targets) make them seem better.

Russia has run out of literally everything a year ago, from missiles to manpower to tanks, fights hungry, drunk and with shovels, is totally demoralized, has no idea what tactics is and so on and so forth, and yet…
First it was a month of “probing and shaping” with the rare Wester equipment, then it was a month of “exhausting Russian equipment and ability to fight”, now it is the third month of the ingenious “light infantry with minimal vehicle support tries to pass the minefields” tactic (as it turns out minefields CAN be larger than 200m x 100m squares, truly the cowardice of Russia knows no bounds!).
It all has resulted in a blip on the map – ~250km2 retaken (less now since Russia has again been advancing in the north) with whole 9 or 10 villages liberated, while first Russian defensive line has barely been reached in a single place only (Robotyne) after 2 months of efforts, much less broken through.
Western press like Politico, NYT, WP, WSJ and others with increasing frequency are publishing articles full of зрада, all of which basically point to counteroffensive becoming/being a failure, that Russia actually plays a sound defence, that there are issues with what else can be given to Ukraine and that support might be waning.

I wonder what would have happened if we had 24-hour news cycle during WWI (the current war is becoming more and more similar to that one; heavy artillery duels and with mines replacing machine guns in terms of stopping offensives).

There is very roughly only a month left until mud season starts and forces everyone to halt. What then? 31x Abrams are gonna do it? F-16’s? More cruise/ballistic missiles? Magical winter assault? Another attempt next year - surely UA can just respawn new units like in RTS. After all, Russia cannot produce anything, oh wait, tone has been changing there too…

More artillery shells may help - but it seems it will take almost a year before the US start producing a million a year, and Russia to have depleted their current stockpiles; and even longer for the west to be at a production advantage. (And it still seems the numbers are low - not just that Ukraine wants more, but also compared to WWI.)

I can see only two scenarios with which this war ends – total defeat of Ukraine (more unlikely), or some type of frozen conflict. Перемога? No.
Maybe I am wrong, I hope I am wrong, and that some miracle suddenly happens, and you all can laugh at me after a year and make me eat my words. Feel free to call me out then…

In case it becomes a frozen conflict one can hope that the west don't go back to sleep, but will be ready when it becomes hot again.

[Gaidax]

It is pretty clear at this point that there won't be any real breakthroughs this year. Ukraine maybe will be able claw some more villages and towns and such out of Russia's grasp, but that's it.

West was too slow and too restrictive with military aid, Russia used this lost time to dig in and Ukraine is not about to send people to suicide trying to break through without air force and heavy artillery support.

Russia is clearly trying to repeat 2014 on a larger scale, where this whole thing will be frozen solid for another half a decade, until they amass enough cannon fodder to grab more.

[Fantomen]

but they swiftly found out that nobody is buying that old hack propaganda from a year ago anymore. So they've basically all fled as well.

My pet teory, is that the Russian "trolls" was send to the front, or the Russian goverment stop paying them.

- - - Updated - - -

Sadly it seems Western support is starting to dwindle

What make you think that?

[PosPosPos]

i mean this sincerely yuppie, why do you think they are not 'just' doing that?

I guess his 4d chess point is that he wants Ukraine to invade Russia so he and other Russia supporters retroactively get the moral justification and high ground for invading Ukraine in the first place.

[Gabriel]

I guess his 4d chess point is that he wants Ukraine to invade Russia so he and other Russia supporters retroactively get the moral justification and high ground for invading Ukraine in the first place.

Yuppie isn't really pro-Russia. My man is just psychotic.