Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Edge-]

I don't think the Russians leaders thought that this will be a walkover, they knew very well that they will pay a heavy price for it. If they were capable to take the risk, they had very serious reasons to do so. It was existential for them.

This is absolutely detached from all objective reality around this war and the circumstances.

Like...what the hell?

Remember how it was supposed to be a "3-day, special operation"? What was the longterm strategic goal if it was always going to be a drawn out affair, lifting the veil on the fantastically successful propaganda efforts that boosted the myth of the modern, competent, well trained and equipped Russian military so that the world could see them for the incompetent grifters it has become?

[Gabriel]

Dude, no leader wants to see their country getting decimated no matter how big ego or corrupt they are, if you give them half a reason to not go to war, they will take it. I don't think the Russians leaders thought that this will be a walkover, they knew very well that they will pay a heavy price for it. If they were capable to take the risk, they had very serious reasons to do so. It was existential for them.

This is precisely the sort of bullshit naivety that gets your country invaded by Russia.

[Vampiregenesis]

Neither Afghanistan nor Irak were NATO operations lol. Libya hardly counts as the place was deep in civil war by the time American planes flew missions. So that leaves Serbia, back in the 90's, where "aggression" is kind of an oversimplification but whatever. And currently I'm fairly sure most in Europe are more worried of Russian aggression given that aside from Ukraine (twice) they also have Georgia and Chechnya (twice) under their belt in the last 20 years. 5-1 in favor of Russia when it comes to aggression versus NATO proper.

NATO has again nothing to do with this. Ukraine hardly received military aid at all prior to the conflict because causing escalation wasn't in NATO's interests (unlike benefiting from said escalation caused by Russia, right now). NATO is the boogeyman that Russia keeps waving around for internal consumption. If that was the problem they wouldn't try to conquer a country that would then make them neighbor with more NATO nations than when they started. The problem was Ukraine no longer kissing the ring so Russia doesn't have unrestricted access to its resources and most of all Sevastopol. Those are the issues. Not NATO.

Russia already had all of this during Poroshenko and it didn't invade, they had no reason to invade. It amassed troops on 2020 I think but removed them, why it didn't invade then?

Also, do the people from donbas and crimea matter at all? why are they so overwhelmingly on the side of Russia? why do these places managed to win autonomy? I don't think Russian militias alone could do that, the land is way too big for this. Donbass alone is almost the size of my country.

and now I ask you, isn't this a major political failure on Ukraine's part? please don't tell me that Ukraine should do whatever it wants with its lands and people. Think with logic for once. What will exactly Ukraine will liberate? I really wonder, I was reading news from a neutral or pro Ukraine site and they even mentioned that some of the population there tried to poison the ukraine troops.

[Edge-]

Russia already had all of this during Poroshenko and it didn't invade, it amassed troops on 2020 I think but removed them, why it didn't invade then?

Because Russia bluffs a lot hoping others will blink, too.

Also, do the people from donbas and crimea matter at all? why are they so overwhelmingly on the side of Russia? why do these places managed to win autonomy? I don't think Russian militias alone could do that, the land is way too big for this.

They're welcome to move to Russia if they want to be Russian. They didn't "win autonomy" rofl where did you hear that nonsense.

and now I ask you, isn't this a major political failure on Ukraine's part?

...did you follow anything regarding the annexation of Crimea or the Russian influence in the "voting" in Donbas etc? It sure doesn't seem like you did...

please don't tell me that Ukraine should do whatever it wants.

I mean...with their territory kinda yeah? If California wants to suddenly join Canada we don't get to simply hold a vote and then join Canada. That's not how this works.

What will exactly Ukraine will liberate?

Their sovereign territory.

I really wonder, I was reading news from a neutral or pro Ukraine site and they even mentioned that some of the population tried to poison the ukraine troops.

Yes, so arrest those folks and prosecute them. Not sure what this has to do with anything.

[Vampiregenesis]

They're welcome to move to Russia if they want to be Russian. They didn't "win autonomy" rofl where did you hear that nonsense.

They won a special status after the treaty of Minsk. Well, not exactly autonomy but they could choose their own goverment and a few more things that I don't know. How does one achieve that in a land as big as donbas and without invading it totally?

Why would Russia need to bluff if according to people here had already decided to invade?

What was the purpose of the bluff?

In a state people matter too especially if they have been there for centuries and they had also fought some terrible wars for their home like ww2. Ukraine had to take into account that, only an ultranationalist would say that you can send them to Russia now that they are not what you want them to be. Life doesn't work like that and well, the effects of this mindset can already be seen on the battlefield.

[Veggie50]

Vampiregenesis is posing clear bad faith arguments as he implies the referenda to annex donbas were anything close to even resembling legitimate

[Resurgo]

I...is...is that the Great Value version of Shalcker?

[Ivanstone]

Also, do the people from donbas and crimea matter at all?

Did it ever occur to you that Russian speaking Ukrainians in Eastern Ukraine wanted to elect a friendly-to-Russia president yet wanted to remain Ukrainian citizens?

Furthermore look at cities like Mariupol. It’s fucking totalled and it was full of people who were friendly to Russia voters.

[Edge-]

They won a special status after the treaty of Minsk.

Which, Minks 1 or 2? Because 1 didn't work. And 2 didn't even really work either and was never fully implemented.

And per Putin - Minsk 2 no longer exists following Russia's invasion - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60488037

Diplomatic efforts to avert the Ukraine crisis have so far failed, and in Russia on Tuesday President Putin said the Minsk agreements - the peace deals aimed at averting years-long conflict in eastern Ukraine - "do not exist".

Why would Russia need to bluff if according to people here had already decided to invade?

What was the purpose of the bluff?

Russia has not made logical or rational strategic plays for a while, why are you looking for logical and strategic plays from a nation that's spent the past year decimating its own military for literally no reason, destroying their economy in the process, and making it so that no nation will basically ever fear the Russian military again?

[Vampiregenesis]

Did it ever occur to you that Russian speaking Ukrainians in Eastern Ukraine wanted to elect a friendly-to-Russia president yet wanted to remain Ukrainian citizens?

Furthermore look at cities like Mariupol. It’s fucking totalled and it was full of people who were friendly to Russia voters.

Yeah Mariupol was completely decimated and then you had Ukrainian women dancing in clubs with Chechens, I think even Zelensky said that the eastern Ukrainians had absorbed too much Russian propaganda but I wonder if it's just propaganda or they preferred the Russians all along.

It's very hard to keep such as large amount of land if the natives hate you there and resist.

I will stand by my opinion that this war is a failure on the political level and could have been prevented without sacrificing much. If you think that the invasion was inevitable no matter what then ok I respect your opinion but since this is a world of probabilities I don't think this is 100% correct. In that case ok, Ukraine did the best it could.

The NATO not only doesn't accept Ukraine but the help from the west was so slow, that the Russians had the time to place tons of mines, yeah the Ukrainians say this, they even said that it will take a decade to remove all of the mines.
it will be interesting to see how this will end up.

[jonnysensible]

Russia attempted to enact a pre planned genocide on Ukraine. Thats it.

[Saradain]

I see the propaganda has not gone anywhere. NATO bad, "existential" (you know what that means yes? It means Russia would be in danger of being WIPED OUT from the map, and it is NOT.) threats...Only nation to which all this is an existential threat is Ukraine right now. Russia completely planned to genocide Ukraine. Saying the opposite is trolling after all the discussion which proved it true.

Who the fuck cares if random ukrainians dance with occupiers (or were forced to, given chechens are not very civilized when invading)? Same people post "don't hate all russians because some choose to genocide!!!!!" but few ukrainian women dancing means the nation loses sovereignty of their territory. Fucking lol.

[Ivanstone]

Yeah Mariupol was completely decimated and then you had Ukrainian women dancing in clubs with Chechens, I think even Zelensky said that the eastern Ukrainians had absorbed too much Russian propaganda but I wonder if it's just propaganda or they preferred the Russians all along.

They wanted friendly relations with Russia. They elected politicians who were friendly to Russia. They didn’t elect people who wanted to separate from Ukraine.

This all started because Yanukovych was a corrupt shit heel who got removed from power. Yanukovych at least wanted to improve relations with both Europe and Russia.

[The Stormbringer]

I see the propaganda has not gone anywhere. NATO bad, "existential" (you know what that means yes? It means Russia would be in danger of being WIPED OUT from the map, and it is NOT.) threats...Only nation to which all this is an existential threat is Ukraine right now. Russia completely planned to genocide Ukraine. Saying the opposite is trolling after all the discussion which proved it true.

No no, you misunderstand! It was an existential threat, because if their neighbors are no longer bullyable, that threatens the existence of Russia being a big bully! Quite simple, you see.

[Forogil]

Neither Afghanistan nor Irak were NATO operations lol.

But you have to remember that the key to disinformation campaigns is to mix falsehood with a grain of truth.

NATO (in addition to NATO members such as the US) was involved in Afghanistan and Iraq - but in a limited rôle. It also ignores the fact that terrorist harbored in Afghanistan attacked the US first (and Iraq attacked Kuwait first) and it seems that Russia was supporting the US-led invasion of Afghanistan.

The real world is messy.

And currently I'm fairly sure most in Europe are more worried of Russian aggression given that aside from Ukraine (twice) they also have Georgia and Chechnya (twice) under their belt in the last 20 years. 5-1 in favor of Russia when it comes to aggression versus NATO proper.

Yes, even if Russia's capabilities aren't so worrisome at the moment, Russian ambitions are certainly worrisome for Europe (and Asia and Africa).

NATO has again nothing to do with this. Ukraine hardly received military aid at all prior to the conflict because causing escalation wasn't in NATO's interests (unlike benefiting from said escalation caused by Russia, right now). NATO is the boogeyman that Russia keeps waving around for internal consumption. If that was the problem they wouldn't try to conquer a country that would then make them neighbor with more NATO nations than when they started. The problem was Ukraine no longer kissing the ring so Russia doesn't have unrestricted access to its resources and most of all Sevastopol. Those are the issues. Not NATO.

Pretty much.

- - - Updated - - -

No no, you misunderstand! It was an existential threat, because if their neighbors are no longer bullyable, that threatens the existence of Russia being a big bully! Quite simple, you see.

True. (And not sarcastically.)

Russia status as a "great power" is threatened when their neighbors no longer fear Russia, and that may also threaten Putin's power.


- - - Updated - - -

Russia attempted to enact a pre planned genocide on Ukraine. Thats it.

Showing that history doesn't repeat itself, but it certainly rhymes (with holodomor).

[Twdft]

<<snip>>

Quick question: do you think Ukraine is a sovereign country with the right decide their own fate?

[Vampiregenesis]

Quick question: do you think Ukraine is a sovereign country with the right decide their own fate?

If that fate creates a dangerous situation for someone else then they should be ready for the consequences. I never said they shouldn't do it but I don't think the outcome should be considered strange. Even if Putin wanted to invade for another reason just like everyone mentions here, going all out with NATO, certainly gave him the perfect excuse to do what he did.

If your neighbor buys a rottweiler that barks and then he tells you that it doesn't bite, it just wants to play, I suppose you won't take measures for it right until you get eaten?

If someone came and tell you that you should leave your home if you prefer Russia over west influence, would you just accept because a paper or a law says so especially when you have been there forever and fought many wars to keep your home and lifestyle?

Logic is a more important decision making tool than laws and papers but none seems to like it.

The logical move from Ukraine's part would be to attempt to join NATO and go all out with the west if they had enough power to stomp Russia's invasion. I never said that they don't have the right to make the decisions that they did however these decisions are wrong when they lack the power to handle what's coming.

Either way, we will see how this will end up, it may still go favorably for Ukraine and pull a win but it looks very hard for them right now.


Infracted.

[Shadowferal]

Putin already lost. He's been looking for a way out ever since his 3day war became a month long. And now here we are over a year later...

[Edge-]

Even if Putin wanted to invade for another reason just like everyone mentions here, going all out with NATO, certainly gave him the perfect excuse to do what he did.

No, it didn't. What does "going all out with NATO" even mean?

If your neighbor buys a rottweiler that barks and then he tells you that it doesn't bite, it just wants to play, I suppose you won't take measures for it right until you get eaten?

Why does your neighbor feel the need to get a rottweiler (great dogs btw) to protect themselves from you to begin with? You're skipping a step.

If someone came and tell you that you should leave your home if you prefer Russia over west influence, would you just accept because a paper or a law says so especially when you have been there forever and fought many wars to keep your home and lifestyle?

That's for Ukraine to deal with. As noted, the Minsk treaty is voided by Putin's own words.

The logical move from Ukraine's part would be to attempt to join NATO and go all out with the west if they had enough power to stomp Russia's invasion. I never said that they don't have the right to make the decisions that they did however these decisions are wrong when they lack the power to handle what's coming.

What does this even mean? If Russia doesn't invade there's no conflict, really. And they made the wrong decisions? I guess if you're a pro-Putin/Russia stan that's a position. Are you?

Either way, we will see how this will end up, it may still go favorably for Ukraine and pull a win but it looks very hard for them right now.

They're still doing remarkably well all things considered. Even if they ultimately lose they've absolutely humiliated the Russian military, and Wagner is no no longer a thing.

[Biglog]

Well the last year and a half have proven that Russia has zero chance against NATO in any sort of tactical war. That would not end well for Russia. Even the most stalwart propagandists realize this now. So they go quickly to 'we could just nuke them', which is equally delusional since like most of the northern hemisphere, Russia too would be left an uninhabitable apocalyptic wasteland.

So with that in mind and being more realistic, there are really only 2 'winning' exit strategies for Russia. 1) (their primary hope) that a political change in the West alters their military support for Ukraine significantly enough to make the war winnable, or 2) a very long war of attrition that Russia could maybe eventually win with endless waves of cannon fodder, but may outlast Putin if it drags on for many years. And it's probably no coincidence that reports of attacks on recruiting offices in Russia are increasing as the war slogs on. Vietnam wasn't too popular in the US either after a few years of military funerals.