Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Mekh]

If your neighbor buys a rottweiler that barks and then he tells you that it doesn't bite, it just wants to play, I suppose you won't take measures for it right until you get eaten?

NATO is the appropriate measures against the rabid dog that is Russia.

[Vampiregenesis]

The frozen conflict scenario is only being pushed by pro-russian groups as they are desperate for it. Ukraine is making progress but have decided slower is better rather that the russian tactic of throwing huge numbers away in futile attacks. They are being methodical about it. On top of that russia has decided on a policy of hold at all cost, even if it makes no sense and is in front of those defensive lines they have built.

Case in point is Urozhaine that fell the other day. This is a good read up of it, but the short of the story is that after Ukraine encircled it on three sides, and with the high ground, russia didn't do the sensible thing of pulling back. Instead they counter attacked, uphill, and then sent in their reserves to try and hold it. The Ukrainians could have taken it sooner, but decided that since russia was feeding its units into a very bad situation they'd take advantage of that and spend the next 2 weeks mercilessly shelling the russians. When they launched a pincer movement 2 weeks later, the russians broke and ran, on foot, in daylight, under artillery fire, leaving all their gear behind.

Ukraine could have taken it sooner but opted not to as russia's crazy strategy let them destroy far more of the enemy that way. Never interrupt an enemy making a mistake.

Back to the economy - after the rubble began to fall yesterday, the russian central bank announced they will have an emergency meeting to address it It allowed the ruble to recover a bit, to where it was a week ago, because it is widely expected that they will hike interests rates to try and shore up the rubble, perhaps as high as a full 1% rise, with further expectations it will climb higher, to over 10% before the year is over. It may stop the bleeding but that just shifts the pain to a different part of the economy.

And, despite their being a war going on and the Kremlin throwing buckets of rubles at them, numerous military enterprises are declaring bankruptcy. Part of the problem is that pootie has made it illegal to fail to live up to an order placed for goods, but with rising costs on important, many are running at a loss and finding it far better to declare bankruptcy than to face the charges. Not exactly the smartest way to run an economy.

They were going slower about it in June, now they upped the pressure didn't they? I read somewhere in the news that the next month will be very important for the outcome of this operation. I also read from Ukrainians sources that they still struggle in the minefields.

[Gaidax]

Also, do the people from donbas and crimea matter at all? why are they so overwhelmingly on the side of Russia? why do these places managed to win autonomy? I don't think Russian militias alone could do that, the land is way too big for this. Donbass alone is almost the size of my country.

I am from Odessa (and yes it's double "S", as someone who was born and grew there) originally and I do remember while I still was there the mistakes that happened.

One of the mistakes was that Ukraine moved WAY too fast and WAY too hard with "Ukrainization". Reality was that you have a huge Russian-speaking, ethnically Russian population in Ukraine and slamming everyone with "from now on you speak Ukrainian and all the institutional documents and interaction is in Ukrainian" - was a step too far.

This should have been a decades long project, not forcing it down peoples' throats literally overnight.

The problem with Ukraine, is that the "Ukrainian" culture is mostly a West Ukrainian culture that suddenly is being forced on people in the East parts of Ukraine. It's a denial of reality on the ground, a clash between the vision of the leadership and ethnic constraints in various areas of Ukraine.

This was a big part of the friction and why, despite the memes, I believe there definitely was a large amount of people in Donbas and Crimea who genuinely decided to go with Russia without actual coercion. They simply did not want to be "Ukrainized".


I think many people here don't understand this point, which is reasonable, given they were not actually born there and did not feel the effects of this personally.

[D Luniz]

Someone who apparently thinks it's okay to preemptively kill your neighbor's dog just in case it might bite you, I think?

No, to work, you get to preemptively make a rush to take your neighbor's entire property then when that fails (why were the doors locked? HOW DARE!!) You reinforce everything 6 feet past the old fence line and claim the grass in that area matched your lawn more so it's your property by right.

[Gabriel]

Fuck me if that's not the most Finnish take I've seen in ages.

Pessimisti ei pety.

[Forogil]

you misunderstood me, I meant West will view this as victory against Putin's tyranny which is supposed to be the reason they help Ukraine, to give a lesson to china.

Ok - I don't see how "victory against tyranny from the West" could be read that way, but if you say so.

And, no - it's not primarily to give a lesson to China; actually standing up to tyranny close to Europe matters a lot to many western powers - both to help Ukraine and to stop it from spreading further.

[Vampiregenesis]

https://www.newsweek.com/nato-offici...oining-1820010

NATO said that Ukraine can join it if it gives the occupied lands to Putin so that it exits war. Basically exactly what I was saying, yet I'm getting infractions for trolling.

Would NATO suggest that if Ukraine is close to a win as many think here?

[Edge-]

https://www.newsweek.com/nato-offici...oining-1820010

NATO said that Ukraine can join it if it gives the occupied lands to Putin so that it exits war. Basically exactly what I was saying, yet I'm getting infractions for trolling.

Would NATO suggest that if Ukraine is close to a win as many think here?

Newsweek is shit.

"I think that one solution could be for Ukraine to give up territory and get NATO membership in return," Jenssen said in a panel debate in Arendal on Tuesday morning.

Which is followed shortly in the original article by this bolded text -

"It must be up to Ukraine to decide when and on what terms it wants to negotiate.

Which is ended in this way -

To VG's question about whether it is NATO's view that Ukraine must cede territory to achieve peace with Russia and future membership in NATO, Jenssen pointed out that the discussion about possible status after the war is already underway, and that questions about ceding territory to Russia have been raised by others.

"I'm not saying it has to be this way. But there may be a possible solution, Jenssen replied.

Emphasis from the article.

You should read the source article.

[Logwyn]

the fuck did I just read?

I threw it into google bard for fun times.... It told me

The statement "If your neighbor buys a rottweiler that barks and then he tells you that it doesn't bite, it just wants to play, I suppose you won't take measures for it right until you get eaten?" is a warning about the danger of ignoring a potentially aggressive dog. The speaker is saying that even if the neighbor assures you that the dog is friendly, you should still take precautions, such as avoiding the dog or keeping your distance, until you know for sure that it is safe. The speaker is also implying that if you do not take any measures, you could end up being bitten or even killed by the dog.

Rottweilers are large, powerful dogs that have been known to be aggressive. They are not always aggressive, but they have the potential to be dangerous. If you are not familiar with the dog or its owner, it is best to err on the side of caution and avoid interacting with the dog.

Here are some tips for dealing with a neighbor's aggressive dog:

Avoid the dog as much as possible.
If you must interact with the dog, do so slowly and calmly.
Do not make eye contact with the dog.
Do not approach the dog from behind.
Do not pet the dog without the owner's permission.
If the dog barks or growls at you, back away slowly.
If the dog lunges at you, scream and run away.
If you are concerned about a neighbor's aggressive dog, you can talk to the owner about your concerns. You can also contact your local animal control agency.

I guess Russia is a dog?

[Saradain]

https://www.newsweek.com/nato-offici...oining-1820010

NATO said that Ukraine can join it if it gives the occupied lands to Putin so that it exits war. Basically exactly what I was saying, yet I'm getting infractions for trolling.

Would NATO suggest that if Ukraine is close to a win as many think here?

And Ukraine won't be doing it. For the same reason you wouldn't give up your home, your familys lives for someone stronger than you because they demand it.

If you can't see what is wrong with your line of thinking, perhaps some day you'll learn it the hard way. Hope not.

[Kaleredar]

https://www.newsweek.com/nato-offici...oining-1820010

NATO said that Ukraine can join it if it gives the occupied lands to Putin so that it exits war. Basically exactly what I was saying, yet I'm getting infractions for trolling.

Would NATO suggest that if Ukraine is close to a win as many think here?

Okay, Ukraine gives up the land for peace guarantees with Russia and makes a move to join NATO.

Russia immediately null and voids those treaties and invades Ukraine wholesale, putting it right back into war.



Russia will only be compelled into peace by the threat of vast, overwhelming force brought directly upon them. They aren't invading Finland or Sweden any time soon. Any Russian peace treaties or ceasefires in "good faith" wouldn't be worth the paper they're written on.

[Jastall]

https://www.newsweek.com/nato-offici...oining-1820010

NATO said that Ukraine can join it if it gives the occupied lands to Putin so that it exits war. Basically exactly what I was saying, yet I'm getting infractions for trolling.

Would NATO suggest that if Ukraine is close to a win as many think here?

You should have read the article besides the headline, where the guy says it's one possible solution and then another NATO official contradicts him. So no, "NATO" didn't say that at all. It's not a hivemind.

[DarkTZeratul]

You should have read the article besides the headline, where the guy says it's one possible solution and then another NATO official contradicts him. So no, "NATO" didn't say that at all. It's not a hivemind.

It's not even really a contriction so much as a clarification: Sure, giving up territory to end the war and then joining NATO is an option, but it's not the only one and ultimately Ukraine is the one who gets to make the decision for themselves.

[Corvus]

Looks like russia's massive interest rake hike failed to have an impact on the ruble.

It had hit around 102 to the dollar when they announced the emergency meeting, resulting in a bit of a recovery, down to around 95, which is where it had been just a week before. It slowly started to creep up again and was around 96-97 when they announced the interest rate hike - and nothing happened. Normally an interest rate hike of that magnitude would result in a strengthening of the currency but it didn't happen. Instead it has continued it slow climb, and is now bouncing around between 98 and 99 to the dollar again (currently 98.43)

If an interest rate hike that large couldn't change anything, I'm not sure what options they might have left. Pumping money into it to prop it up hasn't worked and another rate hike is unlikely to help either.

[Masark]

Yikes, russia just hiked interest rates from 8.5% to 12%, far higher than expected.

Impressive. I can now say I have better credit than Russia.

[draynay]

NATO said that Ukraine can join it if it gives the occupied lands to Putin so that it exits war. Basically exactly what I was saying, yet I'm getting infractions for trolling.

I'm not a mod, but maybe it was advocating that people trespass and kill their neighbor's dogs that earned the infraction. Either way, it betrayed an ignorance regarding foreign policy and that your stance is not based in logic.

[Flarelaine]

Looks like russia's massive interest rake hike failed to have an impact on the ruble.

The ruble is not collapsing. The ruble is conducting a special currency exchange operation.

[Gabriel]

I was today years old when I learned that Russians have been marking their vehicles as medevacs with the red cross marking so they could safely transport ammo.

[Iphie]

I was today years old when I learned that Russians have been marking their vehicles as medevacs with the red cross marking so they could safely transport ammo.

Ooo! OOOO! BINGO! Warcrime bingo! (I know I'm late to the party...)

[Corvus]

And at the same time they deliberately target anything with a red cross.