Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Forogil]

You could probably tick those off too.

Child soldiers? Some of those taken prisoner have looked very young, though that isn't exact proof.

Note that the geneva convention defines child soldiers as below 15 years of age, so reports such as https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30134421 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...s-Ukraine.html aren't technically violating that. (Children 15-18 is a bit of a grey-zone for child soldiers.)

Targeting children hospitals, kidnapping children, and using children as human shields are different war-crimes.

Not saying that Russia doesn't use them at all; Wagner have used child soldiers in Africa and Syria, and Chechnya seems a bit of a special case - Kadyrov had his children pose with weapons and claimed they were soon sent to the front in Ukraine - the youngest was 14.

Misusing uniforms? They have been caught out doing that on numerous occasions, so that is a definite.

Ah, yes.

Poison weapons? They have fired tear gas rounds, and other similar gases on Ukrainian positions. I think that may also be included, though I'm not positive.

Yes. Tear-gas is prohibited in war and allegedly used by the Russians (well, they bragged about using it on state-TV - but you never know with propaganda) https://rusi.org/explore-our-researc...n-used-ukraine

The explanation for why it was used makes sense: Russia planned to take Kiev in 3 days, and thought there might be riots afterwards so they have riot-control police with tear-gas ready for the invasion, and commanders then used it for other purposes.

[Azadina]

There was a discussion in this thread not so long ago about de-mining Ukraine after the Russians.

It's the de-mining during the war that was more of an issue, since you have no artillery or missile strike immunity.

- - - Updated - - -

There is no realistic path to victory for Ukraine (unless NATO gets directly involved). It's time for this war to end. Start the negotiations already.

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/08/...y-over-russia/

What's the point in negotiating with terrorists who broke every single previous deal?

[Forogil]

There is no realistic path to victory for Ukraine (unless NATO gets directly involved). It's time for this war to end. Start the negotiations already.

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/08/...y-over-russia/

Hm... So that is the new talking point?

Among the other articles highlighted on that site we find:

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/08/...ak-in-ukraine/

The situation in the Donbas region is becoming increasingly dire for the Russian military. Over the past hours, Ukrainian forces have breached Russian defenses around the village of Urozhaine. In their retreat, the Russian units in the area suffered extremely heavy casualties.

...

In a couple of videos (link in the original) published by the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, one can see the columns of dismounted Russian troops running away and getting obliterated by artillery fire. Besides conventional rounds, the Ukrainians fired cluster munitions that are designed for exactly these situations — they have a devastating effect on concentrations of troops.

That seems like a path to victory, without direct involvement of NATO.

And that path is also a goal in itself, as the equipment sent to Ukraine is doing what it was designed to do: destroying Russian military assets.

[Ulmita]

Hm... So that is the new talking point?

Among the other articles highlighted on that site we find:

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/08/...ak-in-ukraine/


That seems like a path to victory, without direct involvement of NATO.

And that path is also a goal in itself, as the equipment sent to Ukraine is doing what it was designed to do: destroying Russian military assets.

They are describing a part of the conflict line. Mond you that Russians do that all the time: They retreat to lure in Ukr and then they decimate them with artillery.

When you see various news agencies, a dude from NATO and even politicians talking about diplomacy, then it's almost certain that there is no winning scenario.

This war, unfortunately is a clear indication of how weak and useless politicians the west has. Instead of giving everything Ukraine needed in the first few months, they are STILL discussing how, when and if they'll send stuff. Idiots that the only thing that they are good at, is slapping sanctions punishing their own population too.

[Corvus]

You can tell when things aren't going well for russia when their stans start pushing ceasefire and negotiations.

- - - Updated - - -

The US has supposedly offered to ease sanctions on Iran if it stops supplying drones to russia.

[Forogil]

It's the de-mining during the war that was more of an issue, since you have no artillery or missile strike immunity.

And on top of that mines can be deployed remotely (with artillery or the few remaining helicopters) - right on top (or in front or behind) of the troops, during or after the de-mining.

Russia had planned to make a mine-field across Europe - putting almost all of that on a relatively small part of Ukraine makes for staggering densities of mines.

- - - Updated - - -

They are describing a part of the conflict line. Mond you that Russians do that all the time: They retreat to lure in Ukr and then they decimate them with artillery.

Possibly - but we will see.

And even having soldiers retreating on foot under cluster munition shelling to lure Ukraine into a trap could be a Russian plan, but I'm a bit doubtful.

The war is becoming similar to WWI (in terms of heavy artillery and trenches), and during WWI front lines didn't move much for years; until the agressor (then Germany, now Russia) finally broke.

When you see various news agencies, a dude from NATO and even politicians talking about diplomacy, then it's almost certain that there is no winning scenario.

Well, at least not for Russia.

This war, unfortunately is a clear indication of how weak and useless politicians the west has. Instead of giving everything Ukraine needed in the first few months, they are STILL discussing how, when and if they'll send stuff. Idiots that the only thing that they are good at, is slapping sanctions punishing their own population too.

And how even weaker and uselesser Putin and Russia are.

Russia has still not mobilised, the economy is not on a clear war footing, and it still seems unclear whether it is even a war or a "special military operation". Seeing Russia conduct an existential war (for Russia as a "great power") as a limited war is interesting.

[Gabriel]

You can tell when things aren't going well for russia when their stans start pushing ceasefire and negotiations.

Was just about to come post this lol.

[Iphie]

No. That isn't up to you or me or anyone of us here. It is up to the Ukrainians how far they are willing to go.

Correct, but that does not mean others cannot try to create an atmosphere in which negotiations will be held in earnest (like strangling RUSSR into economic submission.)

Apart from that it's Ukraine's war to fight and they decide how far they will go.

[Gabriel]

Correct, but that does not mean others cannot try to create an atmosphere in which negotiations will be held in earnest (like strangling RUSSR into economic submission.)

Apart from that it's Ukraine's war to fight and they decide how far they will go.

Others shouldn't try.

[masterblode]

There is no realistic path to victory for Ukraine (unless NATO gets directly involved). It's time for this war to end. Start the negotiations already.

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/08/...y-over-russia/

Wow That is a good bit of propagana that blames Ukraine/West for the continued conflict. It doesnt quite say what Russia wants from Ukraine at "the table".

Unfortunately it is not a country that you sit down with an negotiate, we have seen this from multiple different Russian conflicts, even if they end up negotiating, Russia will do everything it can afterwards to install puppet governments essentially going against any pact they made.

Doesnt quite talk about the path to victory via the Russian population.

But then looking at your comments your agenda is quite clear.

[Saradain]

There is no realistic path to victory for Ukraine (unless NATO gets directly involved). It's time for this war to end. Start the negotiations already.

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/08/...y-over-russia/

Yes! It's time for Nazi Russia to fuck off from Ukraine, including Crimea.

No? Ukraine needs to give up its land/stop "provoking" Russia by wanting to join a defensive coalition that has guaranteed safety for all of its existence for all of its members? Or wanting to push better relations with the civilized world ie the west?

Welcome back, Ulmita, is it time for another hurling of hot takes, then fleeing until more of your kind post here so you can throw your one-liner support for the propaganda?

[Corvus]

Russia has still not mobilised, the economy is not on a clear war footing, and it still seems unclear whether it is even a war or a "special military operation". Seeing Russia conduct an existential war (for Russia as a "great power") as a limited war is interesting.

They are trying to mobilise and move to a war footing on the sly in hope that people don't notice. They may have announced mobilisation ended after the first large one but it hasn't - it just goes on in smaller but more frequent numbers. And military spending is chewing up a bigger and bigger part of their budget with each passing day. russia of course hides the numbers but some estimates put it as high as half their budget.

Its all being done so as to not worry those living in Moscow and St Petersburg. They need to keep them insulated from the war and untouched by it. Sooner or later the faltering economy and need for more bodies are going to come home to those two cities though.

[jonnysensible]

good to see easo and ultima come back when they think the war is turning on ukraine.

be surprised if this war ends with the next 3 years. Long way to go yet boys.

[Saradain]

good to see easo and ultima come back when they think the war is turning on ukraine.

be surprised if this war ends with the next 3 years. Long way to go yet boys.

The famous "fog of war" finally cleared. But is Easo still denying Bucha, I wonder? The plot thickens.

The increased activity of certain posters here and elsewhere must mean something positive is happening. Not that I'd raise a youtube channel as the most reputable sources of information, but on my Youtube feed I started to see more and more positive video titles the past few days...

YouTube channel in question being called "Reporting from Ukraine".

[Ulmita]

good to see easo and ultima come back when they think the war is turning on ukraine.

be surprised if this war ends with the next 3 years. Long way to go yet boys.

I usually come back when i renew my subscription But yeah, as I keep saying, this war was over since our "leaders" refused (and still are) to send Ukraine what it needed from the very start. There is no turning anything, it's a done deal.

[Iphie]

Others shouldn't try.

You misinterpret my words, what I am saying is: others can try to be neutral grounds for talks, or pressure russia to come to the table. I'm NOT saying that others should talk about plans without Ukraine present.

But you really would have known this if you would have read the entire sentence, not just the highlighted part.

[Twdft]

There is no realistic path to victory for Ukraine (unless NATO gets directly involved). It's time for this war to end. Start the negotiations already.

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/08/...y-over-russia/

Quick question: do you think Ukraine is a sovereign nation with the right to decide its own fate?

[Ulmita]

Quick question: do you think Ukraine is a sovereign nation with the right to decide its own fate?

Definitely. However, this war is only possible because of the Western money. Alone, the war would have ended in less than a month.

There is no scenario under Ukraine can displace a well dig in Russia without direct western involvement. West needs to either go all in, or start negotiating.


Edit: This is what I am referring to: https://twitter.com/clashreport/stat...058083128?s=19

No F16s for now.... F16s should have been delivered months now, not next year... We send them to counteroffense with 0 air support and no artillery superiority. It's f$cking criminal....

[zealo]

There's no real reason for the west to stop supporting Ukraine even if they think they'll not be able to recapture their lost territories and that it'll end in a korean style frozen war eventually.

The western world is currently getting an absolute bargain deal on the disintegration of the military capacity of one of the few realistic threats to it's own security and interests, and that is worth paying for.

[Corvus]

Russia appears to be down 2 more ka52 helicopters today - russian channels have confirmed one, with 1 of the 2crew dead.

Oryx has 40 as confirmed lost visually, so the real number will be higher. Given russia only had 130 or so in service they may have lost half their fleet already.