Russian invasion of Ukraine

[zealo]

There's no real reason for the west to stop supporting Ukraine even if they think they'll not be able to recapture their lost territories and that it'll end in a korean style frozen war eventually.

The western world is currently getting an absolute bargain deal on the disintegration of the military capacity of one of the few realistic threats to it's own security and interests, and that is worth paying for.

[Corvus]

Russia appears to be down 2 more ka52 helicopters today - russian channels have confirmed one, with 1 of the 2crew dead.

Oryx has 40 as confirmed lost visually, so the real number will be higher. Given russia only had 130 or so in service they may have lost half their fleet already.

[ghotihook]

There's no real reason for the west to stop supporting Ukraine even if they think they'll not be able to recapture their lost territories and that it'll end in a korean style frozen war eventually.

The western world is currently getting an absolute bargain deal on the disintegration of the military capacity of one of the few realistic threats to it's own security and interests, and that is worth paying for.

I was going to say something similar to this. It's the best spent military money for almost 80 years.

[Huehuecoyotl]

Russia appears to be down 2 more ka52 helicopters today - russian channels have confirmed one, with 1 of the 2crew dead.

Oryx has 40 as confirmed lost visually, so the real number will be higher. Given russia only had 130 or so in service they may have lost half their fleet already.

It's this kind of thing that's why the Russia simps are starting to come out and demand negotiations. They may have mined the place to hell and back, but they are running out of material to properly prosecute this war. And their economy is starting to come apart at the seams supporting it. There is only one side desperate to try and lock in the current position at the negotiating table. Especially bearing in mind that they'd renege on any deal when it best suits them.

There is zero reason for Ukraine to give up at this point. Their position in the war (and consequently their position in negotiations) is only going to get stronger from here on.

[Twdft]

Definitely. However, this war is only possible because of the Western money. Alone, the war would have ended in less than a month.

There is no scenario under Ukraine can displace a well dig in Russia without direct western involvement. West needs to either go all in, or start negotiating.

So no friends allowed or what, might makes right and if ruSSia wants some land everyone just let them grab it?

Also what does "the west" have to negotiate?

[Gabriel]

You misinterpret my words, what I am saying is: others can try to be neutral grounds for talks, or pressure russia to come to the table. I'm NOT saying that others should talk about plans without Ukraine present.

But you really would have known this if you would have read the entire sentence, not just the highlighted part.

I know what you mean. I'm just being blunt on purpose.

[Ulmita]

So no friends allowed or what, might makes right and if ruSSia wants some land everyone just let them grab it?

Also what does "the west" have to negotiate?

The west has the weapons and funds that keep the war going. Simple as this.
My guess is that once this "famous counteroffensive" ends (in complete failure) there will be negotiations.

The public opinion in EU is changing rapidly.
https://twitter.com/Kathleen_Tyson_/...105042264?s=19

[Iphie]

The west has the weapons and funds that keep the war going. Simple as this.
My guess is that once this "famous counteroffensive" ends (in complete failure) there will be negotiations.

The public opinion in EU is changing rapidly.
https://twitter.com/Kathleen_Tyson_/...105042264?s=19

She seems unbiased...

[Saradain]

She seems unbiased...

Read her account description.

Realist, Optimist, Entrepreneur & Multipolar Curious. Global liquidity plumber (triparty repo, FX & optimisation). Former central banker & markets supervisor.

Also seems to be anti-Biden and imagines that USA is about to invade Iran to seize all oil fields.

Yeah...Let's not go there

Not to mention how Russia literally pays dumb people in Germany to attend anti-West/pro-Russia rallies...

Even better, more trolling from the said Twitterist:

The Prigozhin videos from earlier this month about running out of ammo, shooting deserting Russians, calling out the Kremlin, etc. will be studied in military colleges for decades to come as a masterclass in battlefield psyops.
He lured Kiev’s forces to the Bakhmut trap, killed their generals, and forestalled any counteroffensive.

God, just reading her tweets and I could edit this post all day long to determine that yeah, Ulmita likes reading entirely Russia-sided information

[Gaidax]

There won't be any negotiations until Ukraine, at the very least, achieves a major victory.

I think there is no shot Ukraine can take Crimea by force and that one for sure will have to be negotiated, the rest is a fair game.

It is pretty clear that both sides are preparing for a war of attrition, and I don't really know who will manage to win that one in the end. Both West and Russia can do it all day.

The biggest issue of Ukraine is that it has no viable Air Force whatsoever left and West is very reluctant to assist on that part. Without that - directly storming Russian positions amounts to sending people to die.

In my opinion the most viable path in this case is keep amassing losses on Russia to fire up public discontent from within, but it will take year(s) and Russia does learn and adapt, so it's not going to be as easy as before.

[Saradain]

https://twitter.com/Kathleen_Tyson_/...19473987354624

The war in Ukraine is an attempt to weaken Russia so that a war against China has better odds, perpetuating US hegemony. He also sees that monetary excesses and sanctions necessitate a new financial paradigm.

More goods from this trusted source of Ulmita. Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 and 2022 to weaken itself???

[Calfredd]

Definitely. However, this war is only possible because of the Western money. Alone, the war would have ended in less than a month.

War lasted way longer than a month before Western aid. There's a reason people made jokes about the one-year anniversary of the 3-day special operation.

[Ulmita]

She seems unbiased...

She's extremely biased lol

[Shadowferal]

The west has the weapons and funds that keep the war going. Simple as this. My guess is that once this "famous counteroffensive" ends (in complete failure) there will be negotiations.

Heard that before...care to guess again? After a week or so that is. Another week..? Another year?

[jonnysensible]

you always wonder how dogshit peoples media diets are when they post a twitter freak like that completely of their own free will.

There won't be any negotiations until Ukraine, at the very least, achieves a major victory.

I think there is no shot Ukraine can take Crimea by force and that one for sure will have to be negotiated, the rest is a fair game.

It is pretty clear that both sides are preparing for a war of attrition, and I don't really know who will manage to win that one in the end. Both West and Russia can do it all day.

The biggest issue of Ukraine is that it has no viable Air Force whatsoever left and West is very reluctant to assist on that part. Without that - directly storming Russian positions amounts to sending people to die.

In my opinion the most viable path in this case is keep amassing losses on Russia to fire up public discontent from within, but it will take year(s) and Russia does learn and adapt, so it's not going to be as easy as before.

be surprised if there isnt a 2nd coup attempt. If Ukraine can breakthrough and actually get to the coast (on the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions) it could make life in Crimea very difficult. Big if but i wouldnt rule it out.

[Saradain]

So. The abovementioned tweet of "german opinion of who started the war" poll...

https://twitter.com/Kathleen_Tyson_/...105042264?s=19

The above twitterist quoted another called Dimitri Lascaris.

https://twitter.com/dimitrilascaris

Who in turn, seems very anti-Ukraine, anti-USA, anti-West. A quote from one of his tweets:

https://twitter.com/dimitrilascaris/...83328267182103

First, the U.K. sent Challenger tanks to Ukraine.

Then it sent shells containing depleted uranium.

Now it's sending long-range missiles.

The lunatics who rule Britain seem hell-bent on provoking World War III. Citizens of NATO countries need to put a stop to this lunacy before we are sucked into a catastrophic war.

Oh, and the Anti-Corruption Foundation that did the poll...is based in...Russia. Founded by... Alexei Navalny. DING DING DING! A right-wing, pro-Russia (but anti-corruption and anti-Putin) figure-founded organization, asks "germans" who started the war in Ukraine...and the answer is USA!

[callipygoustp]

The west has the weapons and funds that keep the war going. Simple as this.
My guess is that once this "famous counteroffensive" ends (in complete failure) there will be negotiations.

The public opinion in EU is changing rapidly.
https://twitter.com/Kathleen_Tyson_/...105042264?s=19

How HOW? does the USA rate on that scale? I'm just dumbfounded by the ability to manipulate and manufacture realities.

[Ulmita]

I love how people completely ignored that the data where gathered by the Anti-Corruption Foundation...

- - - Updated - - -

How HOW? does the USA rate on that scale? I'm just dumbfounded by the ability to manipulate and manufacture realities.

It's same here at Greece. People blame the US/NATO for this war

[Saradain]

I love how people completely ignored that the data where gathered by the Anti-Corruption Foundation...

Which was dissolved in 9th of June...in 2021 in Russia. Your precious russian organization data is warped beyond recognition. Or did you think people forgot that Russia has orchestrated pro-Russia rallies in Germany before?

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-russia...eye/a-61585099

The Greek government condemns Vladimir Putin's attack on Ukraine — but the Greek people are divided where Moscow is concerned. Leftists revel in Soviet nostalgia, while conservatives embrace the shared Orthodox faith.

No shit, people with better history with Nazi Russia don't believe Russia could do anything bad.

Maria does not doubt that when it comes to maintaining power, Putin knows no bounds. That is another reason why her home country no longer holds any promise for her. The propaganda-driven media and the increasingly harsh state measures against dissidents have shattered whatever hopes for a change for the better she may have had, she says. She cannot understand why many people in Greece find it difficult to condemn Moscow for the war against Ukraine. "The other day, a Greek said that everything is good in Russia. I contradicted him and explained how the situation really is. But he didn't believe me."

An anecdote for an anecdote.

[Gaidax]

be surprised if there isnt a 2nd coup attempt. If Ukraine can breakthrough and actually get to the coast (on the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions) it could make life in Crimea very difficult. Big if but i wouldnt rule it out.

The problem is that a coup may not necessarily be good news. For example, if Prigozhin would take over, it would be even worse. People gunning for the seat there are hardly peace doves.

As far as breakthroughs go, without Air Force, I'm just not seeing it.

And with every month passing Russia will pile on more mines and more obstacles on the way. What Russia is doing now is clearly a repeat of 2014, they will freeze the conflict and defend until they gather enough force to grab another chunk of Ukraine few years down the line.

Hence these talks about negotiations, same shit as Minsk, just stalling for a few more years to get a reprieve and gather their strength.