Russian invasion of Ukraine

[jonnysensible]

just stalling for a few more years to get a reprieve and gather their strength.

Russia will never be stronger than it was on feb 23rd 2022. It has basically lost its entire offensive ground force capability. I doubt we will see a new Russian offensive in this entire war.

I think the worse it goes for Ukraine the more they will adopt their tactics to parity with Russians. Why not throw 1000 drones at Moscow indiscriminately if they throw 1000 at you.

[The Stormbringer]

There won't be any negotiations until Ukraine, at the very least, achieves a major victory.

I think there is no shot Ukraine can take Crimea by force and that one for sure will have to be negotiated, the rest is a fair game.

I could honestly see Ukraine getting everything back except for Crimea and then going to the negotiating table. Will they? No idea, I'm not Ukrainian. Is it possible? I think so, yeah. From what (admittedly little) I can gather, I think they'd be willing to give up Crimea to put an end to the war, especially if they can get NATO to fast-track the application and joining process.

[Ulmita]

Which was dissolved in 9th of June...in 2021 in Russia. Your precious russian organization data is warped beyond recognition. Or did you think people forgot that Russia has orchestrated pro-Russia rallies in Germany before?

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-russia...eye/a-61585099



No shit, people with better history with Nazi Russia don't believe Russia could do anything bad.



An anecdote for an anecdote.

Do you know who is Alexei Navalny? Yes, it is the opposition dude who got poisoned and threw in jail.

Have you read anything from that twitter account? There is no harder critic for Putin's Russia out there. Conservative right US hawk accounts pale in comparison.

Do you know how they tried to explain the poll results? They said that it was due to Russian propaganda working in Europe, and that it needs to be stopped.

Please stop writting bs all the time.

[Saradain]

Do you know who is Alexei Navalny? Yes, it is the opposition dude who got poisoned and threw in jail.

Have you read anything from that twitter account? There is no harder critic for Putin's Russia out there. Conservative right US hawk accounts pale in comparison.

Do you know how they tried to explain the poll results? They said that it was due to Russian propaganda working in Europe, and that it needs to be stopped.

Please stop writting bs all the time.

I am well aware who Navalny is. Him being anti-Putin and anti-corruption doesn't mean he also hates Russia as a whole. If you agree that the poll is warped by the effect of propaganda, why do you post it as if it had any meaning? A fraction of people out of 800 germans (in Germany, where Russia has had pro-Russia rallies) saying USA totally is to blame, doesn't matter one bit. Russia invaded twice, unprovoked, to ensure Ukraine stays under their influence.

And you, are known as anti-NATO/USA/West here, and it has been very common for you to derail this thread with "what about USA, what about NATO" bullshit, which in turn indicates you really don't care about facts, which is Russia invading that has nothing to do with the boogieman West.

Forgive me for never believing you post with honest intention to engage in a real discussion. You simply post misinformation and your sources are often very biased.

Also btw, talking of Navalny's Twitter account has nothing to do with what you posted, that was a biased Twitter post with a biased poll by a biased woman, quoting a biased man hating West/Ukraine/USA...

[YUPPIE]

Why not throw 1000 drones at Moscow indiscriminately if they throw 1000 at you.

you know why deep down.

And to be honest, I don't know what (or why) patience game the Kremlin is playing right now given their losses and Ukraine's minor but meaningful incursions into Moscow.

[Saradain]

you know why deep down

Answer is because wasting 1000 drones in a short time on russian buildings is not needed for them to bring the war home to Russia. You can do so with less while using the spare drones in where they also matter even more: the battlefields.

[Gorsameth]

Without a land connection the fall of Crimea is merely a matter of time.

And there I don't see why Russia would ever negotiate to return Crimea.

[Fuiking]

Do you know who is Alexei Navalny? Yes, it is the opposition dude who got poisoned and threw in jail.

Have you read anything from that twitter account? There is no harder critic for Putin's Russia out there. Conservative right US hawk accounts pale in comparison.

Do you know how they tried to explain the poll results? They said that it was due to Russian propaganda working in Europe, and that it needs to be stopped.

Please stop writting bs all the time.

Very strong coming from you. Your opinions and whataboutism is so filled with bs I find it ironic and hypocritic to call out someone else writing bs.

[Ulmita]

....that was a biased Twitter post with a biased poll by a biased woman, quoting a biased man hating West/Ukraine/USA...

You're right, i should have mentioned the original Tweet instead:

https://twitter.com/leonidvolkov/sta...rfRAynSrw&s=19


Just to quote one of his Tweets:

Okay, what could be done?
Face the truth.
Recognize the problem.

Do something to counter Putin's operations in Europe: Follow the money.
Check out his agents of influence and useful idiots - they are not Russians, by the way, but citizens of European countries.
13/14

[Saradain]

You're right, i should have mentioned the original Tweet instead:

https://twitter.com/leonidvolkov/sta...rfRAynSrw&s=19


Just to quote one of his Tweets:

So essentially, yes, russian propaganda has managed to turn people into useful idiots, you have seen them posting in this thread as well. Do you think more than fraction of that 800 germans (russian speaking germans, as the foundation uses the russian language to conduct their matters!) can be turned into an amount that matters, say in millions (across EU) when it might turn politics into a mess if actual majority starts to demand the negotiations you suggested earlier?

As what comes to the polls themselves, some countries even describe Putin as "strong leader", or rather a fraction of the sub-1000 answers. Strong leader does not equal to "kind and loving", you can be both a war criminal and a strong leader - two different qualities...

Aside from that, do you think that the sub-1000 answers per poll (and per country) is truly enough of a sample size for a political matter such as this? In what world does proved war crimes and mass genocide make the majority of civilized world express joy of what Russia has done, does and will do?

I know the mentioned useful idiots have been integrated into my finnish parliament as well, plenty of ex-ministers lobbied for Nordstream or were in the henchmen of major russian banks. And more of them are being weeded out each election here. That is no surprise. We did this to ourselves in Finland during the post-war era until somewhat recently in the last decade or two. Appeasing russians has never worked, is not working, will never work.

But for me, when you come here and make a bold claim that Ukraine has no hope, that it was anyone else's fault but Russia's, who started genociding perfectly on their own (unless you think genocide is a valid reply for literally any matter that doesn't please Russia) only screams that it is your hatred for NATO, West, USA that speaks, not logic. Especially if you season your posts with tweets by biased anti-Ukraine people (who in turn quote others of their kind). And you make a sub-1000 answer poll with no guarantee actual random people were asked, not hateful anti-Navalny russian immigrants who happened to be easy pickings for a poll - to appear as absolute truth of the vast majority of Europe to randomly turn against Ukraine.

[Super Dickmann]

I have to appreciate whichever clown at Navalny's decided to publish poll results that fucked with the entire premise of their existence. It shows either a surprising bit of integrity or profound mental retardation.

[KrayZ33]

I could honestly see Ukraine getting everything back except for Crimea and then going to the negotiating table. Will they? No idea, I'm not Ukrainian. Is it possible? I think so, yeah. From what (admittedly little) I can gather, I think they'd be willing to give up Crimea to put an end to the war, especially if they can get NATO to fast-track the application and joining process.

I personally don't see it, even though I'd prefer Ukraine to get stuff back.

With how little the West provides it's hardly possible unless there is some unexpected breakthrough.
The ones that could provide don't do it enough, and the others that have almost nothing don't even up their military production, meanwhile Russia has the war economy going and won't stop producing tanks/artillery/etc any time soon.

I believe this could've been over if the west would simply not bullshit around like "here, we have 2000 Abrams in stock that we don't use and the tank-model is still in production, we only give you 30 though (Oh, but when they are destroyed, we'll send new ones immediately)!"
or "We currently discuss providing XY - but we are not sure.. (6 months later) ... OKAY! Lets do this, but first we need to train your guys for another 6 months."
Why the heck doesn't training begin even if they decide against it. It's not like they would've had to train 2000 pilots or whatever all at once. But the first pilots would've been trained by now and the shipment could have been used as soon as they can get there.

It's the reason why the Russian side was able to dig themselves in like that in the first place. Now losses are high because of that, both material and personnel, so they have to invest more than they otherwise would've.

[Forogil]

I personally don't see it, even though I'd prefer Ukraine to get stuff back.

With how little the West provides it's hardly possible unless there is some unexpected breakthrough.
The ones that could provide don't do it enough, and the others that have almost nothing don't even up their military production, meanwhile Russia has the war economy going and won't stop producing tanks/artillery/etc any time soon.

So far Russia doesn't seem to have really switched to a war economy (obviously Ukraine has) and don't have unlimited production (but deep storages).

The West is also trying to ramp up production, but is still not there - and some also goes to increased defense in the west.

I believe this could've been over if the west would simply not bullshit around like "here, we have 2000 Abrams in stock that we don't use and the tank-model is still in production, we only give you 30 though (Oh, but when they are destroyed, we'll send new ones immediately)!"

The US wanted to send the new M1A2 - the stock is of M1 and M1A1 as far as I understand.

And artillery shells would be more useful, I think; but production has to ramp up further.

- - - Updated - - -

Aside from that, do you think that the sub-1000 answers per poll (and per country) is truly enough of a sample size for a political matter such as this?

The number of answers are sort of ok, if they hadn't been selected with bias, i.e., if it were a "representative poll" as labelled and not merely as "representative" as DDR was democratic.

With 95% certainty it would be 36+/-3%.

However, due to the bias (such as asking in Russian) it wouldn't matter if had 100,000+ answers.

[Gaidax]

The US wanted to send the new M1A2 - the stock is of M1 and M1A1 as far as I understand.

And artillery shells would be more useful, I think; but production has to ramp up further.

It's not a production issue, it's a political issue, production is just a convenient excuse there - reality is Ukraine is mostly getting either second hand or watered-down stuff.

Part of it Ukraine's fault, as well, I imagine they either can't provide decent enough assurances of not spilling conflict out of the intended by West area or are simply not trusted to hold their guns. West is really not interested into fanning the flames there, current state of affairs is quite optimal there.

In addition to that - they have their own constituents to answer to. Blank check for Ukraine, while there are economic and societal issues at home is not going to go well over time.

[Forogil]

It's not a production issue, it's a political issue, production is just a convenient excuse there - reality is Ukraine is mostly getting either second hand or watered-down stuff.

For tanks, artillery systems, and yet-to-be-delivered planes: yes.

For artillery shells production is actually the bottle neck. The west didn't prepare for an artillery war of this magnitude - except for S. Korea (who don't want to anger N. Korea).

Europe is producing 20-25k a month. The US about 24k, that gives less than 50k in total. Ukraine fires 60k-200k per month (and would like more), and Russia at least 300k.
https://www.defensenews.com/global/e...ll-production/ https://taskandpurpose.com/news/army...ll-production/

[Corvus]

The US had 3 million artillery cluster rounds in storage which it is handing over. Ukraine won't be running out of artillery shells while production ramps up.

[KrayZ33]

I was looking for non RuZZki news about Japan increase in grain import. Can someone help?
July apparently has +5000%+ and +500%+ over the year in total.

But all of that is from RuZZki news: "says the report, published by the Ministry of Finance of Japan." is the source mentioned
I can't find the published report, maybe it's only in moon-speak or something?

Overall their import from Russia were reduced by 60%. But I was interested in the amount of grain imports either way.

I know what everyone is thinking and I couldn't find a single western source while googling that says ANYTHING about this, and I shouldn't be surprised if it's a lie etc, but I still don't believe that it IS a lie (yet), that's why I wanted to look for myself.... but I have no idea how.
The thing is: It would bother me if western media doesn't report on something like that, even though I don't think it's much of a problem, it's still a rather weird thing to do in the middle of the grain export crisis Ukraine faces due to RuZZia's occupation, warmongering and raiding.

Even "Tridge.com" which apparently is some kind of global sourcing hub for food and agriculture has an article about that, but the source is "zol.ru".... well, it has .ru in it.

[ringpriest]

The US had 3 million artillery cluster rounds in storage which it is handing over. Ukraine won't be running out of artillery shells while production ramps up.

It's been 540 days. There's been plenty of time for production to ramp up in the West. There's been an absence of political will to make the call, commit to purchases, and get the arms manufacturers to extend themselves into vastly increased production. Which is a shame, because the PRC is watching all this with a very keen eye.

[Corvus]

You can't just flick a switch and produce more. You have to start from scratch, building more facilities, hiring and training new workers, organising supply chains. All that takes time.

[KrayZ33]

You can't just flick a switch and produce more. You have to start from scratch, building more facilities, hiring and training new workers, organising supply chains. All that takes time.

Hm, I don't know about artillery rounds etc, but I doubt any facilities even work remotely close to 100% as they are right now.
I don't think the West would have to switch to a war economy, where actual factories are being build and civil factories turned into military ones (i.e. MAN switching to tank parts instead of trucks)
So it should be mostly a hiring/training problem.