Russian invasion of Ukraine

[ringpriest]

If the US/EU has largely been burning through surpluses owned by their respective militaries then there's been little reason to draw up extensive production schedules with private companies to manufacture various forms of equipment and ordinance.

And hell, maybe they thought Russia wouldn't be dumb enough to keep going this long. Either way, I think a notion of "the military industrial complex wont jump at the opportunity to make a quick buck" to be pretty laughable.

Oh, they (the military-industrial complex) absolutely will jump at the money. But they're not spinning up for vastly increased artillery shell (and other ammunition production) for a couple reasons. 1) they're currently busy salivating at the thought of NATO members buying replacements for all the older hardware that's been shipped to Ukraine. 2) There's a higher margin on high-tech vehicles than there is on something as mundane as ammunition. And, 3) the various governments in NATO won't make the commitment to...<checks links> <record scratch>

Well, I'm going to have to eat a little crow here. The US and Germany hav e finally committed and they're both finally starting increasing production (that they could have started a year ago, but here we are). There should be an order of magnitude more shells coming out of the West over the next year.

[Corvus]

Ramping up is good, but the 3 million cluster rounds are going to last a long, long time. And they are proving devastating to the russians.

Long read of a translation of a russian officers post on how bad it is getting for them under cluster munition fire.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...308022555?s=20


He is talking hundred or thousands of dead in just 2 weeks from them, how their own ones are old, many don't work due to age or are obsolete, how supply routes are cut so the wounded can't be evacuated and most wounded are dying and much more.

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Another drone hit Moscow. They are claiming they shot it down, but it's funny they only manage to bring them down a few kilometres from the Kremlin and not during the hundreds it took to fly there.

[Deathknightish]

https://deepstatemap.live/en#12/47.7182/36.8341

Ukraine is steadily moving forward every day now towards Robotyne and especially Staromlyvnika.

Really fun to watch and it should shut up the RuZZian orc sympathizers. SLAVA UKRAINI!

[Iphie]

This is pretty stupid...

Brawling with Grenadelaunchers

[Calfredd]

It needs to be reiterated Putin is just waiting for Trump to be re-elected.

It needs to be reiterated that someone who doesn't even know that a war is going on will still probably have better takes than you.

[Crispin]

It needs to be reiterated Putin is just waiting for Trump to be re-elected.

What the fuck are you on about now?

While Putins strategy is a complete fuck up, he's not just waiting for quite unlikely Trump win to turn the tides of this.

[Shadowferal]

It's a thought that I've expressed myself. Trump wants the US to pull out of NATO and cease all aid to Ukraine. Another Trump presidency would be a disaster.

[Kaleredar]

What the fuck are you on about now?

While Putins strategy is a complete fuck up, he's not just waiting for quite unlikely Trump win to turn the tides of this.

Putin probably set into this thinking, among other things, that Trump had sewn enough discord in the US about Ukraine and a general partisan divide that the US would essentially be paralyzed into political inaction as the GOP took Russia's side and painted support for Ukraine as a "liberal vs conservative" issue. Luckily, he was wrong. And with as much as we know Russia aided Trump's campaign in various ways in 2016, I'd be highly surprised that Russia didn't have some inkling of the election fraud and denial Trump was cooking up.

Between that and their "three day invasion" they probably hoped to get this done before the US could act in any way. Now, it's possible that, as I'm sure they were planning the invasion before Trump lost and Biden won, they had hoped Trump would win and basically force Ukraine into peace negotiations, but assumed all of the other abovementioned factors would cover for them should he not.

But Putin may indeed be wistfully holding out for another Trump presidency, as long of a shot as that hopefully is. Not because Yuppie is right (he isn't) in his thinking there's a grand Putin plan here that was all masterfully orchestrated like in the video games he's played where Russia is strong, but in that Putin has so little hope for any resolution to this that he's basically waiting on the most far-flung of outs.

[zealo]

It needs to be reiterated Putin is just waiting for Trump to be re-elected.

I’m sure the Russians are waiting for the possibility of that, but even if he does win the US election, that’s at minimum early 2025 before he’s able to even attempt to change the direction of US foreign policy.

That’s a long time for a war of this intensity.

[Shadowferal]

Winter is coming...which could be a good, but dangerous distraction. Or a timeout.

[diller]

The west has the weapons and funds that keep the war going. Simple as this.
My guess is that once this "famous counteroffensive" ends (in complete failure) there will be negotiations.

The public opinion in EU is changing rapidly.
https://twitter.com/Kathleen_Tyson_/...105042264?s=19

And what is the actual source of those polls because it's not listed anywhere, it's just the person you link to quoting some russian.

I love how people completely ignored that the data where gathered by the Anti-Corruption Foundation...

And who exactly are the "Anti-Corruption Foundation" ?

[Gorsameth]

I’m sure the Russians are waiting for the possibility of that, but even if he does win the US election, that’s at minimum early 2025 before he’s able to even attempt to change the direction of US foreign policy.

That’s a long time for a war of this intensity.

Even if he were to win I wouldn't worry that much. In a fight between the entire US military industrial complex and Trump, my money is not on Trump.

Republican congressmen talk now because talk is cheap and there is no actual chance of cutting support happening. The moment it becomes a realistic option because of Trump in the WH their actions will be guided by the corporations paying for their bribes re-election, not Trump.

[Ulmita]

https://deepstatemap.live/en#12/47.7182/36.8341

Ukraine is steadily moving forward every day now towards Robotyne and especially Staromlyvnika.

Really fun to watch and it should shut up the RuZZian orc sympathizers. SLAVA UKRAINI!

Yeah... you heard the guy mr secret services... stop being "ruSSian" sympathizers...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...ive-melitopol/

[Corvus]

The WaPo has been one of the doomerist of western media for a long time.

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This is pretty stupid...

Brawling with Grenadelaunchers

Not the first time Chechens have got into fights.

It's also not the craziest thing I've heard in the last little while.

A short while ago a russian commander ordered his men to put on Ukrainian uniforms to try and infiltrate Ukrainian lines. Problem is he forgot to tell anyone else. A russian artillery unit saw what they thought were Ukrainians and shelled them, killing 34.

It gets better. Superior Ukrainian counter battery picked up the russians firing and fired back, taking out the artillery and 17 more russians. The russian officer then fled after seeing what happened.

At first I thought there was no way it could be true but just a couple of days ago came another report that russian authorities had found the officers and tried to detain him. He resisted, killing 2 and injuring 4 more before being killed.

The second report made me think it might actually be true.

[Dontrike]

There is no realistic path to victory for Ukraine (unless NATO gets directly involved). It's time for this war to end. Start the negotiations already.

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/08/...y-over-russia/

Sure, once Russia gets the fuck out, returns the territories they took, pays for everything, and Putin is dead and/or in prison. Sounds like a good deal.

[korijenkins]

Sure, once Russia gets the fuck out, returns the territories they took, pays for everything, and Putin is dead and/or in prison. Sounds like a good deal.

I don't really understand the "Ukraine has no chance" argument anyway. Russia hasn't made a meaningful advance on any front in nearly a year. The "experts" pushing that narrative are probably the same ones that thought the country would be rolled over in 72 hours.

[Ulmita]

I don't really understand the "Ukraine has no chance" argument anyway. Russia hasn't made a meaningful advance on any front in nearly a year. The "experts" pushing that narrative are probably the same ones that thought the country would be rolled over in 72 hours.

Ukraine is attacking a well digged in enemy, WITHOUT air support or artillery superiority. Thus, Ukraine is committing suicide in terms of military.

Why is this happening is the question that everyone should be asking in here and anywhere else. Why is the West NOT giving them whatever they need to succeed? I linked yday about F16s not until somewhere in the next year. Ukraine needed aircrafts months AGO.

Again, out politicians are weak and morronic. They slap sanctions (which harmed us more than they did the Russians) instead of giving UKR what it needed from the very fist months...

[Belize]

I don't really understand the "Ukraine has no chance" argument anyway. Russia hasn't made a meaningful advance on any front in nearly a year. The "experts" pushing that narrative are probably the same ones that thought the country would be rolled over in 72 hours.

Ultima is Shackler-lite, without the articulation to post walls of propaganda nonsense, so he resorts to RUSSIA#1!! type nonsense.

[Fuiking]

Ukraine is attacking a well digged in enemy, WITHOUT air support or artillery superiority. Thus, Ukraine is committing suicide in terms of military.

Why is this happening is the question that everyone should be asking in here and anywhere else. Why is the West NOT giving them whatever they need to succeed? I linked yday about F16s not until somewhere in the next year. Ukraine needed aircrafts months AGO.

Again, out politicians are weak and morronic. They slap sanctions (which harmed us more than they did the Russians) instead of giving UKR what it needed from the very fist months...

didnt read the cluster ammunition twitter post awhile ago? didnt see the HIMARS absolutely rekting artillery whenever they can find them? Yeah that sounds like no superiority lol.

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So far Russia doesn't seem to have really switched to a war economy (obviously Ukraine has) and don't have unlimited production (but deep storages).

The West is also trying to ramp up production, but is still not there - and some also goes to increased defense in the west.


The US wanted to send the new M1A2 - the stock is of M1 and M1A1 as far as I understand.

And artillery shells would be more useful, I think; but production has to ramp up further.

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The number of answers are sort of ok, if they hadn't been selected with bias, i.e., if it were a "representative poll" as labelled and not merely as "representative" as DDR was democratic.

With 95% certainty it would be 36+/-3%.

However, due to the bias (such as asking in Russian) it wouldn't matter if had 100,000+ answers.

For the bolded part: Hansworst will hate me for saying this: Dont expect the dutch to reach the minimal amount set any time soon. They consistently fail to do what they promise. And its frustrating me so much. Great way to get hated in NATO and EU even more. And they're pretty much disliked and even hated in the EU already due to there inflexibility during Covid. I'm pretty sure if they didnt have Rotterdam and were the ones invaded by Russia no one would bat an eye at that kekw

[Iphie]

The WaPo has been one of the doomerist of western media for a long time.

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Not the first time Chechens have got into fights.

It's also not the craziest thing I've heard in the last little while.

A short while ago a russian commander ordered his men to put on Ukrainian uniforms to try and infiltrate Ukrainian lines. Problem is he forgot to tell anyone else. A russian artillery unit saw what they thought were Ukrainians and shelled them, killing 34.

It gets better. Superior Ukrainian counter battery picked up the russians firing and fired back, taking out the artillery and 17 more russians. The russian officer then fled after seeing what happened.

At first I thought there was no way it could be true but just a couple of days ago came another report that russian authorities had found the officers and tried to detain him. He resisted, killing 2 and injuring 4 more before being killed.

The second report made me think it might actually be true.

Ok...how do these people breath and walk at the same time?