Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Kaleredar]

It's irrelevant. Russia has been trying to call for a time out for a while now and the only way they are going to get it is if they agree to Ukraine's terms, something Putin is not willing to do.

And Russia's idea of a "time out" is so that they can basically say "alright, so we keep what we have so far, you stop attacking us or trying to take anything back, but no, you can't enter into any alliances 'cuz we didn't technically 'make peace,' alright?" all to be broken at Russia's convenience.

[Forogil]

It's irrelevant.

In terms of what will actually happen: yes.

However, it is relevant in terms of Russia's self-perceived strength - you don't push the idea of a frozen conflict when you think you can win.

Russia has been trying to call for a time out for a while now and the only way they are going to get it is if they agree to Ukraine's terms, something Putin is not willing to do.

ISW makes a point that the narrative of a frozen conflict was pushed by Prig and then wasn't pushed after his mutiny.
Note that a frozen conflict is the term for when the fighting more or less stops - without a peace treaty (sometimes even without a formal cease-fire).

[alach]

Roundup of news of the day, (week)

Ukrainian Cluster Shells Massacred Russian Troops Fleeing Urozhaine

It was all but inevitable that the Russian garrison in occupied Urozhaine would fall. Advancing in a pulse of rapid assaults since early June, a powerful division-size Ukrainian force—including all four Ukrainian marine corps brigades—had flanked Urozhaine, a tiny settlement with a few hundred structures arrayed along three parallel north-south roads in southern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast.

By advancing east and west of Urozhaine, a key Russian strongpoint in a chain of them leading south toward occupied Mariupol, 50 miles away on the Black Sea coast, the Ukrainians left the increasingly desperate Russian garrison—including elements of the 37th Motor Rifle Brigade—just one way out of Urozhaine: the T0518 road, threading south into neighboring Zavitne Bazhannya and Staromlynivka.

“The recapture of neighboring Urozhaine was only a matter of time,” the independent Conflict Intelligence Team wrote. And when the depleted Russian garrison fully or partially retreated on Saturday or Sunday, it did so on foot and in broad daylight along the open road and the fields abutting it.
Ukrainian drones watched from overhead. And Ukrainian artillery batteries took aim. What followed was a bloodbath.

Drone crashes into Russian railway station, leaving 5 injured

A Ukrainian drone crashed into the roof of a railway station in the western Russian city of Kursk early Sunday morning, injuring five people and causing damage to the building, according to the regional governor.

Russia’s Kursk region borders Ukraine and has seen previous apparent Ukrainian attacks.

One of the station’s platforms has been temporarily closed; however, passengers are still able to board and depart trains on two other platforms in the station, governor Roman Starovoyt said in an update on Telegram.

The roof and facade were also affected and there was damage to a waiting room and pedestrian tunnel, he added.

Russia-Ukraine war: Nato chief says only Kyiv can decide conditions for peace talks after territory row

Nato chief rebuffs official's earlier remarks: 'Only Ukrainians can decide conditions for negotiations'
It is up to Ukraine to decide when the conditions are right to join any negotiations after the Russian invasion, the Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, said on Thursday, emphasising the alliance’s unchanged stance after comments this week by a senior colleague, Reuters reports.

“It is the Ukrainians, and only the Ukrainians, who can decide when there are conditions in place for negotiations, and who can decide at the negotiating table what is an acceptable solution,” Stoltenberg said.

Speaking at a conference in the Norwegian town of Arendal, he added that Nato’s role was to support Ukraine.

The statement followed remarks by Stoltenberg’s chief of staff at Nato, Stian Jenssen, who on Tuesday said Ukraine may in the end give up territory to Russia as part of a deal to end the war. Jenssen subsequently said he regretted his comments.

Netherlands says US has approved delivery of F-16s to Ukraine

The United States has given its approval for the Netherlands to deliver F-16s to Ukraine, the Dutch defence minister said on Friday, in a major gain for Kyiv even though the fighter jets will not have an immediate impact on the almost 18-month war.

“I welcome the US decision to clear the way for delivery of F-16 jets to Ukraine. It allows us to follow through on the training of Ukrainian pilots,” Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren said in a message on the social platform X, formerly known as Twitter. “We remain in close contact with European partners to decide on the next steps.”

Ukraine has long pleaded for the sophisticated fighter to give it a combat edge. It recently launched a long-anticipated counteroffensive against the Kremlin’s forces without air cover, placing its troops at the mercy of Russian aviation and artillery.

Apart from delivering the warplanes, Ukraine’s allies also need to train its pilots. Washington says the F-16s, like the advanced US Abrams tanks, will be crucial in the long term as Kyiv faces down Russia.

I think I heard that the pilot training has already started.

[Mazza]

In terms of what will actually happen: yes.

However, it is relevant in terms of Russia's self-perceived strength - you don't push the idea of a frozen conflict when you think you can win.


ISW makes a point that the narrative of a frozen conflict was pushed by Prig and then wasn't pushed after his mutiny.
Note that a frozen conflict is the term for when the fighting more or less stops - without a peace treaty (sometimes even without a formal cease-fire).

That might all be true, but that still cannot happen without Ukraine going along with it. And I do not believe they will.

[Corvus]

Reportedly Ukraine are also starting to train on Swedish Grippens.

And in hilarious news, russia's attempt to land a spacecraft on the moon has ended in failure after it crashed.

[Gabriel]

In terms of what will actually happen: yes.

However, it is relevant in terms of Russia's self-perceived strength - you don't push the idea of a frozen conflict when you think you can win.


ISW makes a point that the narrative of a frozen conflict was pushed by Prig and then wasn't pushed after his mutiny.
Note that a frozen conflict is the term for when the fighting more or less stops - without a peace treaty (sometimes even without a formal cease-fire).

"""""Frozen conflict""""" with Russia means that Russia expects Ukraine to stop advancing and Russia keeps shelling Ukrainian positions.

[diller]

I think I heard that the pilot training has already started.

Yes, training has already started in Denmark, and along with the Netherlands Denmark have confirmed today that they will also donate F16's.

There will also be training in Romania.

[Corvus]

When russia said a tu-22 was damaged, what they meant was this.

[Makabreska]

When russia said a tu-22 was damaged, what they meant was this.

Emotional damage?

[Forogil]

That might all be true, but that still cannot happen without Ukraine going along with it. And I do not believe they will.

True (based on the geography; there's nothing similar to the strait between China and Taiwan).

However, my point was that Russians and some others re-started talks about frozen conflict about 3 days ago - which both seems more than a coincidence, and also indicated that even Russians don't think they can achieve more.

- - - Updated - - -

I think I heard that the pilot training has already started.

Note that isn't just pilot training, but also training of ground crews and maintenance personnel.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/0...ining-00106433

(I would say that when Lt. Gen. Douglas Sims, told reporters Thursday that the situation on the frontlines in Ukraine is currently “not ideal” for the use of F-16s. "The Russians still possess some air defense capability." it was somewhat of an understatement, but as he noted things may change.)

[alach]

From what I read, contrary to what Zelesky is asking for, I don't really see how the jets will help all that much right now. Both are currently using their air power from far behind the front lines to launch air to surface cruise missiles. I think the Russians are still pretty scared of the Ukrainian MANPADS. Russia has lost alot of helicopters to them already.
I imagine once again hes asking everyone for them for the future, when the current conflict is over, they will have an airforce better trained and better equipped than many countries on the border with Russian.

What they really seem to need is those American long range surface to surface missiles to hit those ammo dumps and command centers that are just out of reach.

And in hilarious news, russia's attempt to land a spacecraft on the moon has ended in failure after it crashed.

I got a chuckle out of this one, apparently the flight was delayed for over 2 years, since after the invasion, the EU space agency stopped helping the Ruskies with equipment, which it had planned to do beforehand. In a truly take-my-ball-and-go-home move, Russia said fine, we will do it without any help, but we wont share any of our scientific research we will discover.
Well, turns out in the end, they did end up sharing with the entire world, how to perfectly crash a lander into the moon.

[Gorsameth]

From what I read, contrary to what Zelesky is asking for, I don't really see how the jets will help all that much right now. Both are currently using their air power from far behind the front lines to launch air to surface cruise missiles. I think the Russians are still pretty scared of the Ukrainian MANPADS. Russia has lost alot of helicopters to them already.
I imagine once again hes asking everyone for them for the future, when the current conflict is over, they will have an airforce better trained and better equipped than many countries on the border with Russian.

What they really seem to need is those American long range surface to surface missiles to hit those ammo dumps and command centers that are just out of reach.

Agreed, however there is 1 think another thing to consider. Western doctrine is based on air power. We don't have a lot of artillery shells lying around but we have plenty of F16 compatible missiles.
Even if the F16's just function as long range stand-off launch platforms it opens up more ammunition we can send Ukraine.

[alach]

Agreed, however there is 1 think another thing to consider. Western doctrine is based on air power. We don't have a lot of artillery shells lying around but we have plenty of F16 compatible missiles.
Even if the F16's just function as long range stand-off launch platforms it opens up more ammunition we can send Ukraine.

True that.
Like the Hellfire.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AGM-114_Hellfire

[Mayhem]

considering this version of earth I'd say chances aren't 0 that ukraine becomes EU member, wins the war and takes over russia

[diller]

considering this version of earth I'd say chances aren't 0 that ukraine becomes EU member, wins the war and takes over russia

not in the next 10-20 years.

[Flarelaine]

considering this version of earth I'd say chances aren't 0 that ukraine becomes EU member, wins the war and takes over russia

Sounds like a Hearts of Iron speedrun challenge.

- - - Updated - - -

On my good days I strive to make a distinction between Russia and Russians when condemning the aggression.

Then I come across the nauseating depths of filth on social media like this Telegram post.



The picture is the memorial of a 7-year old girl killed in a drone strike in downtown Chernihiv. The post says "children's shoes for sale, never worn". 50 thousand grins.

Excuse my while I go and vomit.

[alach]

Sounds like a Hearts of Iron speedrun challenge.

- - - Updated - - -

On my good days I strive to make a distinction between Russia and Russians when condemning the aggression.

Then I come across the nauseating depths of filth on social media like this Telegram post.



The picture is the memorial of a 7-year old girl killed in a drone strike in downtown Chernihiv. The post says "children's shoes for sale, never worn". 50 thousand grins.

Excuse my while I go and vomit.

....wow. no words.

[Shadowferal]

considering this version of earth I'd say chances aren't 0 that ukraine becomes EU member, wins the war and takes over russia

Far too much work and too much everything really. (NATO and China, and Belarus and...it gets ugly.)

[Deathknightish]

Opinion on the war back home is starting to turn. Soldiers return home, and get called murderers and harassed:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...33407454572789

"WarGonzo's Pegov thought an interview with mobiks would be a great idea, but they revealed how back home, they're not so popular, even called murderers.

United like never before."

SLAVA UKRAINI!

[YUPPIE]

today Russian soldiers complained about 2 important things

1. Ukraine's "indiscriminate" use of cluster munitions, complaining they're terrified of going out into the open with those practices.

2. reportedly, they're not treated well at home by anyone; expecting to be treated as heroes for putting their life on the line for their country, civilians apparently mistreat them, one even throwing a beer bottle at a soldier despite the consequences of going against Russian nationalism.