Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Ulmita]

It really isn't tho.

Dropping 100 warheads in 100 big cities that would mean ~ 100M deaths in the very first 24 hours an who knows how many more in the first week (from radiation). This means that no matter the nation, you're looking on a complete collapse, Mad Max style.
It's well documented here, no need to guesstimate Gabriel .... https://thebulletin.org/2022/10/nowh...everyone-else/

[Iphie]

Dropping 100 warheads in 100 big cities that would mean ~ 100M deaths in the very first 24 hours an who knows how many more in the first week (from radiation). This means that no matter the nation, you're looking on a complete collapse, Mad Max style.
It's well documented here, no need to guesstimate Gabriel .... https://thebulletin.org/2022/10/nowh...everyone-else/

I would argue that China and India might be able to absorb 100M+ casualties due to sheer population size and if they wouldn't be hit in important areas. (fat chance but with both having over 1B people a 100M is kinda small.)

[Ulmita]

I would argue that China and India might be able to absorb 100M+ casualties due to sheer population size and if they wouldn't be hit in important areas. (fat chance but with both having over 1B people a 100M is kinda small.)

Who knows... Only certain thing is that millions of people will be displaced + economic collapse (imagine having 100 cities uninhabitable for decades) even in the case of India - China. What happens in the case of a smaller nation, like England?

[Poopymonster]

What happens in the case of a smaller nation, like England?

All that would be left is cockroaches and Brexiteers.

[alach]

I hope you are all aware of the irony of the fact that without any involvement from YUPPIE the topic of conversation has been nukes for the last several pages.

Anyways, nothing major in the news last few days, but heres a couple.

30 Ukrainian Leopard 2A4 Tanks Assembled In One Field—A Reminder That Ukraine Still Has Most Of Its Leopard 2s

The tanks are lined up in tidy rows in broad daylight, flying a variety of pendants including the Ukrainian flag. Their crews amble around the 61-ton, four-person tanks—unworried, unafraid. It’s obvious the tanks, together comprising an entire armored battalion, aren’t within range of Russian artillery.

We don’t know where or when the video was shot, but it seems to be from somewhere in southern Ukraine—and recent. Ukrainian technicians gradually have been fitting the Leopard 2A4s with blocks of locally-made Kontakt explosive reactive armor. The ERA explodes outward when an incoming shell or missile strikes it, thus partially deflecting the blast.
....
Around half were in one spot, somewhere behind the southern front line, for the recent video. The 18 remaining A6s have been in the thick of the fighting since early June, so their absence is understandable. The 10 Strv 122s meanwhile are more than a hundred miles away, fighting a defensive battle against a Russian countercounteroffensive west of Kreminna in northeastern Ukraine.

That leaves just eight A4s that aren’t in the video. It’s not hard to guess where those eight tanks are: they’re almost certainly in Poland, undergoing repair after taking damage in combat—some of them apparently before getting their ERA blocks.

In the end, the video seems to be a reminder that Ukraine still has almost all of its Leopard 2s. The 33rd Mechanized Brigade is intact, and apparently ready to recommit its up-armored tanks to the counteroffensive.

‘Everything is ahead of us’: Ukraine breaks Russian stronghold’s first line of defence

Ukrainian forces have decisively breached Russia’s first defensive line near Zaporizhzhia after weeks of painstaking mine clearance, and expect faster gains as they press the weaker second line, the general leading the southern counteroffensive has said.

Brig Gen Oleksandr Tarnavskiy estimated Russia had devoted 60% of its time and resources into building the first defensive line and only 20% each into the second and third lines because Moscow had not expected Ukrainian forces to get through.

“We are now between the first and second defensive lines,” he said, speaking to the Observer in his first interview since the breakthrough. Ukrainian forces were now pushing out on both sides of the breach and consolidating their hold on territory seized in recent fighting, he said.

“In the centre of the offensive, we are now completing the destruction of enemy units that provide cover for the retreat of Russian troops behind their second defensive line.”
...
The second line is not as well built, so Ukrainians can use their vehicles, although there are still minefields. Because Russian forces are also operating in this area, they are in patches rather than a single defensive cordon.

When asked about slow progress breaking through Russian lines in another offensive further east along the enemy’s defensive line, he said it had other aims and added that Ukraine was preparing other surprise offensives to drain Moscow’s forces.

“To be successful in one direction, you always need to mislead the enemy. The main goal of the [offensive near the] village of Velyka Novosilka had a different aim,” Tarnavskiy said. He refused to be drawn on timelines for reaching big targets such as Melitopol, or the coastline for the Sea of Azov, but said fighting would continue.

[enigma77]

I hope you are all aware of the irony of the fact that without any involvement from YUPPIE the topic of conversation has been nukes for the last several pages.

Now hold on, he got the noooks conversation started by talking about saber rattling and Putin placing a new nuke somewhere!

Give the man his fair credit, please.

[YUPPIE]

Erdogan to meet Putin really soon, though the context of their meeting is vague.

[Zaydin]

You know, one thing that irritates me is the people complaining the Ukrainian counter offensive clearly failed because it didn't immediately crush the Russians.

The Normandy campaign lasted from June 6, 1944 and didn't end until the Germans retreated across the Seine on August 30, 1944. The offensive took almost four months to finish.

Rapid sudden breakthroughs and collapses of the opposing force are not that common in warfare.

[Kallisto]

You know, one thing that irritates me is the people complaining the Ukrainian counter offensive clearly failed because it didn't immediately crush the Russians.

The Normandy campaign lasted from June 6, 1944 and didn't end until the Germans retreated across the Seine on August 30, 1944. The offensive took almost four months to finish.

Rapid sudden breakthroughs and collapses of the opposing force are not that common in warfare.

People were seemingly expecting a Kharkiv style push, forgetting that only happened because for months Ukraine was saying "Hey Russia we're coming for you in Kherson!" so Russia moved a lot of their troops to Kherson and left the absolute least equipped, least trained rookies in the Kharkiv area.

[YUPPIE]

You know, one thing that irritates me is the people complaining the Ukrainian counter offensive clearly failed because it didn't immediately crush the Russians.

It's because the fact it didn't crush the Russians betrays all the propaganda the Russian army is bumbling and incompetent. Instead, it spells out the grim reality they're actually a functioning and deadly force the Ukrainians are going toe-to-toe with than stomping. Even with all the Western support.

[Nilinor]

It's because the fact it didn't crush the Russians betrays all the propaganda the Russian army is bumbling and incompetent. Instead, it spells out the grim reality they're actually a functioning and deadly force the Ukrainians are going toe-to-toe with than stomping. Even with all the Western support.

Except, normally, when attacking defensive positions you generally want at least 3:1 odds in your favor to break through. They don't have 3:1 odds and are still pushing through.

Also, mines dont require competence to work. You can have an inept and incompetent enemy, and still get slow pushing since mines require no skill to use.

[Saradain]

It's because the fact it didn't crush the Russians betrays all the propaganda the Russian army is bumbling and incompetent. Instead, it spells out the grim reality they're actually a functioning and deadly force the Ukrainians are going toe-to-toe with than stomping. Even with all the Western support.

And Kyiv didn't fall in 3 days, so with your logic, Russia must be both incompetent and competent. Try some consistency, trust me bruh

[Vampiregenesis]

The Ukrainian General who is responsible for the counteroffensive in the south said in the news that Ukraine broke the first line of defense and it's now between the first and second line of defense. He also said that the first line was the hard one and the other lines will be much easier because Russians spent much less resources for them. Overall , he speak as if the heavy lifting is done and now its only a matter of time before the Ukrainian counteroffensive succeeds.

If he is saying the truth and it's not propaganda to draw more support from NATO and west, it will be interesting to see how Russia will react to this. I guess we will find out soon, if they only needed 3 months to break the tough line then I suppose the other ones will go faster. I wouldn't give this war more of a year to settle unless we have a new mass conscription by putin to stall further.

Btw not sure if it's true but I read somewhere that the Ukraine army recruits people everywhere and they even camp bars or other public places to fish for potential recruits. Not sure how this works but it sounds scary, is this a normal thing during war? Imagine going to the cinema and a muscular guy stops you in the street, "hey you, come over here, we will take you to Bakhmut now"

[Saradain]

The Ukrainian General who is responsible for the counteroffensive in the south said in the news that Ukraine broke the first line of defense and it's now between the first and second line of defense. He also said that the first line was the hard one and the other lines will be much easier because Russians spent much less resources for them. Overall , he speak as if the heavy lifting is done and now its only a matter of time before the Ukrainian counteroffensive succeeds.

If he is saying the truth and it's not propaganda to draw more support from NATO and west, it will be interesting to see how Russia will react to this. I guess we will find out soon, if they only needed 3 months to break the tough line then I suppose the other ones will go faster. I wouldn't give this war more of a year to settle unless we have a new mass conscription by putin to stall further.

Btw not sure if it's true but I read somewhere that the Ukraine army recruits people everywhere and they even camp bars or other public places to fish for potential recruits. Not sure how this works but it sounds scary, is this a normal thing during war? Imagine going to the cinema and a muscular guy stops you in the street, "hey you, come over here, we will take you to Bakhmut now"

It's called conscription and in non-corrupted countries it is done via other methods than strong-arming randoms. Or are you saying your country doesn't have conscription as a concept? And I know you read previous posts here, which could have told you that NO ONE IS SENT TO WORST OF THE WORST FRONTLINES WITHOUT TRAINING.

And do link your source for "hearing Ukraine does scary kidnapping to frontlines". And yes, conscription is perfectly normal concept in countries neighbouring Russia. If you don't defend your country willingly, why would a country take the risk of being occupied/annexed by a hostile enemy?

[Forogil]

Btw not sure if it's true but I read somewhere that the Ukraine army recruits people everywhere and they even camp bars or other public places to fish for potential recruits. Not sure how this works but it sounds scary, is this a normal thing during war?

Somewhat as conscription during war is fairly normal, and having people partying while avoiding conscription during a war gives bad publicity.

However, there has been some corruption and other problems with it (all the conscription heads were fired last month) - so it might be both a case of asking why they weren't conscripted earlier, and whether it was perhaps a shakedown for money.

Imagine going to the cinema and a muscular guy stops you in the street, "hey you, come over here, we will take you to Bakhmut now"

That's not how it works as far as I understand - they just get some papers, it's not the press gangs of the Royal Navy around 1800.

- - - Updated - - -

I would argue that China and India might be able to absorb 100M+ casualties due to sheer population size and if they wouldn't be hit in important areas. (fat chance but with both having over 1B people a 100M is kinda small.)

Well, that is possible.

The problem for the rest of the world is the "nuclear winter" from the link, and that is much more unknown (in particular whether there will be a lot of soot, and whether it will reach far into the atmosphere; clearly that will depend on many factors). There are also some suggestions that nuclear winter was hyped as part of a soviet disinformation campaign, linked to support for peace-movements in the west, with the intended goal of reducing the size of western militaries.

So, as usual consider whether something is real or Soviet/Russian propaganda.

[Vampiregenesis]

It's called conscription and in non-corrupted countries it is done via other methods than strong-arming randoms. Or are you saying your country doesn't have conscription as a concept? And I know you read previous posts here, which could have told you that NO ONE IS SENT TO WORST OF THE WORST FRONTLINES WITHOUT TRAINING.

And do link your source for "hearing Ukraine does scary kidnapping to frontlines". And yes, conscription is perfectly normal concept in countries neighbouring Russia. If you don't defend your country willingly, why would a country take the risk of being occupied/annexed by a hostile enemy?

It doesn't feel good to be forced to do something that you don't want to, how democratic is this, I'm not interested in dying so that an elite group of people would keep their riches and benefits because that's precisely what a country is. If you are someone coming from a low or even middle class, why would you risk your life? there is nothing to risk for, even if you get conquered, your life can't get any worse assuming that you don't care about pointless and delusional nationalistic stuff.

We have conscription in my country and of course, I avoided it, not interested wasting 1 year of my life for someone who don't care about me. If we had a war, I would do the same, my government does not inspire me enough to go to the frontline and sacrifice myself.

[enigma77]

It doesn't feel good to be forced to do something that you don't want to, how democratic is this, I'm not interested in dying so that an elite group of people would keep their riches and benefits because that's precisely what a country is. If you are someone coming from a low or even middle class, why would you risk your life? there is nothing to risk for, even if you get conquered, your life can't get any worse assuming that you don't care about pointless and delusional nationalistic stuff.

We have conscription in my country and of course, I avoided it, not interested wasting 1 year of my life for someone who don't care about me. If we had a war, I would do the same, my government does not inspire me enough to go to the frontline and sacrifice myself.

You just summed up the problem with the West nicely. Me Me Me Me Me, fuck the country, more Me Me Me Me.

How about you owe it to your country and people because the life you take for granted is a result of your nation doing things for you?

[Saradain]

It doesn't feel good to be forced to do something that you don't want to, how democratic is this, I'm not interested in dying so that an elite group of people would keep their riches and benefits because that's precisely what a country is. If you are someone coming from a low or even middle class, why would you risk your life? there is nothing to risk for, even if you get conquered, your life can't get any worse assuming that you don't care about pointless and delusional nationalistic stuff.

We have conscription in my country and of course, I avoided it, not interested wasting 1 year of my life for someone who don't care about me. If we had a war, I would do the same, my government does not inspire me enough to go to the frontline and sacrifice myself.

I totally get it and understand that you wish not to risk your life for the elite, especially if your home country is more...inclined for nepotism, corruption etc. But for Ukraine, this is VITAL. If every capable man gets an easy chance to flee, Ukraine itself would fall. And it is the prime directive zero-one for a nation to preserve itself - hence why conscription. And I thought your questioning was trying to paint Ukraine in a bad light for utilizing conscription, hence why my aggressive manner of replying to you. Conscription, it's a normal thing.

War is hell, as much as I like and want Russia to crumble - and Ukraine cannot afford to give up, not land, sovereignty, anything. This may be the only chance in recent history where we can kick Russia back to the shithole it belongs, and let people liberate THEIR regions from their yoke.

Maybe your home country is not worth defending for you, but mine is at very least.

[Vampiregenesis]

You just summed up the problem with the West nicely. Me Me Me Me Me, fuck the country, more Me Me Me Me.

How about you owe it to your country and people because the life you take for granted is a result of your nation doing things for you?

It depends on the invading nation but the difference between the two has to be substantial to be worth risking your life. If lets say my quality of life would become much worse (like cutting my electricity, internet, food etc) or the invading state had plans to kill me and my family 100% then I would probably accept joining the army but that's because I hate emigrating elsewhere to avoid it, I'm not the type who will move during a crisis, I didn't and never thought about it when my country faced a terrible financial crisis. I would still wait a lot though before conscripting.

[Kaleredar]

It doesn't feel good to be forced to do something that you don't want to, how democratic is this, I'm not interested in dying so that an elite group of people would keep their riches and benefits because that's precisely what a country is. If you are someone coming from a low or even middle class, why would you risk your life? there is nothing to risk for, even if you get conquered, your life can't get any worse assuming that you don't care about pointless and delusional nationalistic stuff.

We have conscription in my country and of course, I avoided it, not interested wasting 1 year of my life for someone who don't care about me. If we had a war, I would do the same, my government does not inspire me enough to go to the frontline and sacrifice myself.

This "but conscription is wrong!" pearl clutching is so... empty... compared to what Ukraine is facing.

Ukraine finds itself in a dire situation it was put in by Russia.

Of the things "wrong" with Russia's war in Ukraine, "forced Ukrainian conscription" is well at the bottom of the list, far below things like the "Russian-lead genocide on Ukrainians" that the conscription is being enacted to combat.

But this seems to bother you a whole lot, so here's a solution: Ukraine wouldn't have to conscript anyone if Russia just gave up and fucked off back to their side of the border.