Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Corvus]

Looks like russian air defence has failed again - someone just dropped cruise missiles on the black sea fleet headquarters in Sevastopol. Hopefully they bagged an admiral or two.

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The Black Sea fleet HQ isn't looking particularly happy after the strike.

[Iphie]

Someone important must've gotten hit, russia is admitting that a serviceman is unaccounted for after the Sevastopol strikes.


Sokolov, commander of the Black Sea Fleet, may have been liquidated

[Corvus]

Moment of arrival of the cruise missile. In the middle of the day so there would have been plenty of military personnel working in the building. And the bystanders just watching on completely unphased.

Slowed down and zoomed in. Yeah, that's a big hit.

It may have been a timed strike to hit a meeting of senior leadership - besides the commander of the black sea fleet, there were also reportedly 2 senior generals severely injured, one of whom commanded the southern front where Ukraine is attacking.

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Also news that finally Ukraine will be given ATACMS, though only a small number of them.

[Elder Millennial]

Looks like russian air defence has failed again - someone just dropped cruise missiles on the black sea fleet headquarters in Sevastopol. Hopefully they bagged an admiral or two.

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The Black Sea fleet HQ isn't looking particularly happy after the strike.

Considering the hits the Ukrainians have been doing on air defenses on Crimea in the weeks leading up to this, it might not have been a case of air defense failing...but rather air defense no longer existing.

[Corvus]

Air defence was active - there is video of it in action. They claim they shot down all but 1 but the place got hit twice at least. It was already burning when the video showed a second direct hit.

[Dracullus]

Poles generally hate Russia a whole lot more than the grievances they have with Ukraine.

It’s election posturing with the next general election in Poland being October 15th, not a genuine intention to ditch supporting Ukraine in kicking the Russians back behind their own side of the border.

It's a factor, every goverment want to act strong and assertive in situation like that, but not full story. Grain conflict is real, and many people felt irritated how Ukraine acted when Poland first time in 2 years said 'no'. It's like you help someone in need, rent him apartment, help to find job, etc. but when you refuse to give him his watch you hear that you are shitty person.

But that's pointless when we are discussing this war. Even if we take out whole humanitarian aspect and assume bad relationship between Ukraine and Poland, Russia lose in this war is key interest for Poland. Only useful idiots that listen to russian trolls can believe otherwise.

--

That beside the topic, but only grievance towards Ukraine from Poland is Volyn massacre. Poland view this as genocide, thinks Ukraine should apologize like Germans after WWII and finish exhumations, Ukraine want to see it more as local war between 1943-1947 where both sides has blood on their hands. In short, messy situation but not impossible to untangle.

If we compare it to Poland-Russia relations... oof I don't even want to start.

[Shkar]

Air defence was active - there is video of it in action. They claim they shot down all but 1 but the place got hit twice at least. It was already burning when the video showed a second direct hit.

In fairness, it's pretty on brand for Russian facilities to be on fire of late. Could have just been a normal day up until the missile struck /s

[Elder Millennial]

The other day I remembered the fascist chuds in the US last year shooting up power substations and leaving tens of thousands of people without power for days.

I'm wondering, how difficult would it be for Ukraine to get 2 dozen dudes and .50 cal rifles into Russia and start shooting up substations?

[Gorsameth]

The other day I remembered the fascist chuds in the US last year shooting up power substations and leaving tens of thousands of people without power for days.

I'm wondering, how difficult would it be for Ukraine to get 2 dozen dudes and .50 cal rifles into Russia and start shooting up substations?

what would that achieve?
It doesn't matter how miserable the Russian people are, Putin won't order a withdrawal.

[Elder Millennial]

what would that achieve?
It doesn't matter how miserable the Russian people are, Putin won't order a withdrawal.

Disruption to manufacturing, any other economic activity, drain on Russian resources and manpower needed to restore power, lowering morale.

The cost to benefit ratio is massive.

[Gabriel]

Disruption to manufacturing, any other economic activity, drain on Russian resources and manpower needed to restore power, lowering morale.

The cost to benefit ratio is massive.

So is the suffering to not giving a shit ratio in Russia.

[Iphie]

So is the suffering to not giving a shit ratio in Russia.

If a russian isn't suffering are they really a russian?

[Shkar]

So is the suffering to not giving a shit ratio in Russia.

Russia is clearly going to keep throwing away resources at this war. In my (armchair strategist) eyes, Ukraine's best bet is to wage a war of equipment attrition, leveraging the vastly superior manufacturing/stores of the West over Russia and the couple countries exploiting Russia's desperation.

While it is not without risks to the individuals doing so, going in and knocking out the power to what arms manufacturing Russia still has works towards that overall goal.

[Gorsameth]

Russia is clearly going to keep throwing away resources at this war. In my (armchair strategist) eyes, Ukraine's best bet is to wage a war of equipment attrition, leveraging the vastly superior manufacturing/stores of the West over Russia and the couple countries exploiting Russia's desperation.

While it is not without risks to the individuals doing so, going in and knocking out the power to what arms manufacturing Russia still has works towards that overall goal.

Why not blow up the arms factory instead?
Seems much more long term effective and a lot less likely to piss off allies your relying on.

[Iphie]

Why not blow up the arms factory instead?
Seems much more long term effective and a lot less likely to piss off allies your relying on.

Target within russia, bit problematic. We may not agree with it but in the end Ukraine cannot use western weapons within russia

[Shkar]

Why not blow up the arms factory instead?
Seems much more long term effective and a lot less likely to piss off allies your relying on.

Sure, if they can do that directly, even better. It's likely even, given Russia's ongoing failures. Taking out a whole factory likely requires more ordinance, which could be used on ships/artillery/anti-air/supply depots instead, however, while a small team of saboteurs could take out the weaker supply lines fueling the factory. Power, water, materials, roads, etc.

[Forogil]

Why not blow up the arms factory instead?

"Why not both?"

Specifically their drone army are also "...taking the war inside Russia. One aim is to hit military factories in an effort to disrupt whole supply chains. Recent examples include an attack on a facility that produces decalin, a fuel additive essential for rockets, and a plant that makes circuitry for Kinzhal and Iskander missiles."
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2...my-and-society

[Lanrefni]

They should also be prioritizing ball bearing factories,no one really thinks about them,but they are in damn near everything that moves and critically important.

[Iphie]

They should also be prioritizing ball bearing factories,no one really thinks about them,but they are in damn near everything that moves and critically important.

Didn't russia already pretty much ran out of those? Their own production is laughable and of inferior quality.

[Deus Mortis]

They should also be prioritizing ball bearing factories,no one really thinks about them,but they are in damn near everything that moves and critically important.

One caught on fire 9 days ago.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV...ire_in_samara/