1. #35641
    Russians never seem to understand the basic concept that everyone around Russia is fleeing into the arms of NATO because that is the only protection against Russia's aggression over failing to 100% serve Russia's interests.

    If Russia wasn't threatening everyone who doesn't fall in line they wouldn't be looking to join NATO.

    And its not just NATO. See whatever Eastern Asia country (I want to say Kazakhstan?) that signed a mutual defence pact with China following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. They all know the only way to leave Russia's shadow is under the cover of a Super power.
    Last edited by Gorsameth; 2023-11-27 at 11:55 PM.
    It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death

  2. #35642
    Quote Originally Posted by Gorsameth View Post
    Russians never seem to understand the basic concept that everyone around Russia is fleeing into the arms of NATO because that is the only protection against Russia's aggression over failing to 100% serve Russia's interests.

    If Russia wasn't threatening everyone who doesn't fall in line they wouldn't be looking to join NATO.
    This continues to be a drum I bang whenever folks come in here to talk about how concerned the US would rightfully be if China started building bases in Canada and Mexico and shit. And like yeah, I get it! No nation wants that!

    That's why most nations usually seek positive, close ties with their geographic neighbors specifically to help create a "buffer" around themselves. And also because there are a wide range of economic and social benefits to close ties, too. Because this way the US, even if relations with Mexico have been a bit rocky recently, doesn't really have to worry about such a hypothetical - because despite our internal problems and some...issues in the past 8 years or so, we still aren't antagonizing and worrying our neighbors to the point where seeking closer ties with global competitors becomes a more attractive offer.

    That it's repeatedly been shown to be a more attractive offer for the former USSR members currently bordering Russia should speak volumes about the consequences of the policies Russia has chosen to pursue on this front. If Russia ends up finding itself surrounded by enemies, or perceived enemies, they have nobody to blame but themselves.

  3. #35643
    Quote Originally Posted by Gorsameth View Post
    Russians never seem to understand the basic concept that everyone around Russia is fleeing into the arms of NATO because that is the only protection against Russia's aggression over failing to 100% serve Russia's interests.

    If Russia wasn't threatening everyone who doesn't fall in line they wouldn't be looking to join NATO.

    And its not just NATO. See whatever Eastern Asia country (I want to say Kazakhstan?) that signed a mutual defence pact with China following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. They all know the only way to leave Russia's shadow is under the cover of a Super power.
    You want to say Kazakhstan because it is Kazakhstan.

    I think most of the other former soviet central asian nations have some agreements with China too now that might not be fully mutual defence (Since Russia can't get to them without going through Kazakhstan anyway) but it's basically "Hey China, we don't like this guy anymore. We want to be with you!". Including a major trade road being built by China which is basically a FUCK YOU to Russia with intent.

  4. #35644
    Speaking of Khazakhstan, both they and Uzbekestan are considering the purchase of 24 French Rafale fighters each. Normally they'd go to russia for planes, but seeing as how russia is now an arms importer rather than an exporter and russia is an untrustworthy country they are looking elsewhere to upgrade their air forces.

  5. #35645
    Merely a Setback Kaleredar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jastall View Post
    To be fully clear, America IS more than capable of being highly aggressive. The Muslim world will have more than their fair share of tales to tell on the matter, for starters.

    NATO isn't part and parcel of American aggression tho. It's a defensive pact with a fairly specific focus and purpose. None of America's invasions since WW2 have involved it. And while America definitely is the organisation's heavyweight, it's not its absolute leader either. It can't just, like, tell all those countries to attack Russia or whatever other Call of Duty-inspired brainfart of an idea some people think NATO is about. Just getting Finland in resulted in tons of bickering. Which is why some people using it a strawman is fairly telling to me. As if there were no differences between America and NATO, and as if NATO was primarily responsible for Russia invading a non-NATO member, somehow.

    "Russia had to attack because Ukraine wanted to join NATO! NATO was AGGRAVATING RUSSIA!"

    "Hmmm, but why did Ukraine want to join NATO?"
    “Do not lose time on daily trivialities. Do not dwell on petty detail. For all of these things melt away and drift apart within the obscure traffic of time. Live well and live broadly. You are alive and living now. Now is the envy of all of the dead.” ~ Emily3, World of Tomorrow
    Quote Originally Posted by Wells View Post
    Kaleredar is right...
    Words to live by.

  6. #35646
    More proof of russia's failing arms exports - the Dubai Airshow 2023 took place this month, the largest airshow in the middle east. Back in 2017 it made $10 billion in sales, dropping to $1.3 billion in 2021. This year it made $0 dollars in sales. No one would touch their gear. Meanwhile, players like Boeing, Lockhead and Airbus made sales totaling $67 billion.

  7. #35647
    Elemental Lord Templar 331's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gorsameth View Post
    Russians never seem to understand the basic concept that everyone around Russia is fleeing into the arms of NATO because that is the only protection against Russia's aggression over failing to 100% serve Russia's interests.

    If Russia wasn't threatening everyone who doesn't fall in line they wouldn't be looking to join NATO.

    And its not just NATO. See whatever Eastern Asia country (I want to say Kazakhstan?) that signed a mutual defence pact with China following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. They all know the only way to leave Russia's shadow is under the cover of a Super power.
    They understand it, or at least the leadership of Russia does. The Russians just want these countries to feel guilty because they want to join NATO instead of submitting to "the Motherland" like they do on a daily basis. It's typical abusive spouse behavior. "I only hit you because you gave me a reason to. Just don't give me a reason to hit you and I won't!" It's a weak man's attempt to shift blame away from themselves.

  8. #35648
    pottie signed off on the new russian budget for 2024 which will increase war spending by 70%, to take up 30% of the budget. Throw in other security apparatus and it hits 40%. And that is factoring in their belief they can increase revenue by over 22% in one year - so tax hikes and cost cuts as they aren't going to be getting it by high oil prices they are counting on.

    One of those measures to cut costs is to stop indexation of all salaries for ALL government salaries except those in military/security forces. Given high levels of inflation, that is in effect a big wage cut for all those people - better go off and sign up then. Or resort to even more corruption and embezzlement.

    And pootie is back to banging the drum of demography again, calling on women to emulate the 'traditions' of their grandmothers and great-grandmothers and return to having 7 to 8 kids each. Of course all services are being cut to support them so they'll all be living in poverty like the good serfs they are.

  9. #35649
    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    having 7 to 8 kids each.
    That's a 1st class Mother's cross right there.

  10. #35650
    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    pottie signed off on the new russian budget for 2024 which will increase war spending by 70%, to take up 30% of the budget. Throw in other security apparatus and it hits 40%. And that is factoring in their belief they can increase revenue by over 22% in one year - so tax hikes and cost cuts as they aren't going to be getting it by high oil prices they are counting on.
    However, note that even if 40% of government spending the government spending is only about a third of GDP, so it is 13% of GDP or so.
    Far above the NATO-target, but also far below government spending when a country actually commits to a total war.

    In perspective, last year Ukraine spent 30% of GDP on defense (according to SIPRI), and during WWII the US spent up to 40% of GDP on the war.

  11. #35651
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    However, note that even if 40% of government spending the government spending is only about a third of GDP, so it is 13% of GDP or so.
    Far above the NATO-target, but also far below government spending when a country actually commits to a total war.

    In perspective, last year Ukraine spent 30% of GDP on defense (according to SIPRI), and during WWII the US spent up to 40% of GDP on the war.
    tbh though, Ukraine can afford it better since we help with financials to keep the state going. My hope is we increase this so they can focus even more on weapons purchases or even better - weapons manufacturing.

  12. #35652
    Not sure how they did it (and we may never find out for opsec reasons), but Ukraine's intelligence service has apparently blown up a train pulling more than 40 fuel tankers inside a 15km long tunnel along the BAM line just north of Mongolia. 4000km away from Ukraine. Causing a major fire inside a tunnel in the middle of the wilderness and in winter is going to make repairs really hard.

    This is one of just two lines (the other being the Trans-Siberian) that connects the western part of russia with China and North Korea. Something like 75% of all east-west transportation happens along those two lines. And the Trans-siberian crosses vast regions of wilderness with lots of vulnerable bridges (almost 4000) along the route.

  13. #35653
    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    Not sure how they did it (and we may never find out for opsec reasons), but Ukraine's intelligence service has apparently blown up a train pulling more than 40 fuel tankers inside a 15km long tunnel along the BAM line just north of Mongolia. 4000km away from Ukraine. Causing a major fire inside a tunnel in the middle of the wilderness and in winter is going to make repairs really hard.

    This is one of just two lines (the other being the Trans-Siberian) that connects the western part of russia with China and North Korea. Something like 75% of all east-west transportation happens along those two lines. And the Trans-siberian crosses vast regions of wilderness with lots of vulnerable bridges (almost 4000) along the route.
    Plot twist, we find out it wasn't Ukraine, but China just so it can make Russia more dependent on it.

  14. #35654
    Quote Originally Posted by Kallisto View Post
    Plot twist, we find out it wasn't Ukraine, but China just so it can make Russia more dependent on it.
    Plot twist. It wasn't an "attack" at all, but simple bog standard shitty Russian Equipment failure. Of course, Russia will never admit it, so obviously it has to be a Ukranian "Attack". Lol.

  15. #35655
    Quote Originally Posted by Surfd View Post
    Plot twist. It wasn't an "attack" at all, but simple bog standard shitty Russian Equipment failure. Of course, Russia will never admit it, so obviously it has to be a Ukranian "Attack". Lol.
    TBH I would expect that to be the actual truth for a lot of the failures that's going on. Especially when nearly all the professionals are either dragged to the front or escaped out of the nation.

  16. #35656

  17. #35657
    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    Not sure how they did it (and we may never find out for opsec reasons), but Ukraine's intelligence service has apparently blown up a train pulling more than 40 fuel tankers inside a 15km long tunnel along the BAM line just north of Mongolia. 4000km away from Ukraine. Causing a major fire inside a tunnel in the middle of the wilderness and in winter is going to make repairs really hard.

    This is one of just two lines (the other being the Trans-Siberian) that connects the western part of russia with China and North Korea. Something like 75% of all east-west transportation happens along those two lines. And the Trans-siberian crosses vast regions of wilderness with lots of vulnerable bridges (almost 4000) along the route.
    Seems that a second train might have been blown up as well.

  18. #35658
    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    Seems that a second train might have been blown up as well.
    Yeah, reportedly russia rerouted trains after the first attack along a bypass, part of which was over a 25m high bridge. When a fuel train taking this bypass was crossing the bridge a series of explosive charges went off.

    A burning fuel train on a bridge sounds like a bad combo.
    Last edited by Corvus; 2023-12-01 at 01:30 PM.

  19. #35659
    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    Yeah, reportedly russia rerouted trains after the first attack along a bypass, part of which was over a 25m high bridge. When a fuel train taking this bypass was crossing the bridge a series of explore charges went off.

    A burning fuel train on a bridge sounds like a bad combo.
    Played like a fiddle, apparently.

  20. #35660
    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    Yeah, reportedly russia rerouted trains after the first attack along a bypass, part of which was over a 25m high bridge. When a fuel train taking this bypass was crossing the bridge a series of explore charges went off.

    A burning fuel train on a bridge sounds like a bad combo.
    Well that does make the notion of this being an accident a lot more unlikely.
    It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death

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