1. #35661
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    However, note that even if 40% of government spending the government spending is only about a third of GDP, so it is 13% of GDP or so.
    Far above the NATO-target, but also far below government spending when a country actually commits to a total war.

    In perspective, last year Ukraine spent 30% of GDP on defense (according to SIPRI), and during WWII the US spent up to 40% of GDP on the war.
    tbh though, Ukraine can afford it better since we help with financials to keep the state going. My hope is we increase this so they can focus even more on weapons purchases or even better - weapons manufacturing.

  2. #35662
    Not sure how they did it (and we may never find out for opsec reasons), but Ukraine's intelligence service has apparently blown up a train pulling more than 40 fuel tankers inside a 15km long tunnel along the BAM line just north of Mongolia. 4000km away from Ukraine. Causing a major fire inside a tunnel in the middle of the wilderness and in winter is going to make repairs really hard.

    This is one of just two lines (the other being the Trans-Siberian) that connects the western part of russia with China and North Korea. Something like 75% of all east-west transportation happens along those two lines. And the Trans-siberian crosses vast regions of wilderness with lots of vulnerable bridges (almost 4000) along the route.

  3. #35663
    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    Not sure how they did it (and we may never find out for opsec reasons), but Ukraine's intelligence service has apparently blown up a train pulling more than 40 fuel tankers inside a 15km long tunnel along the BAM line just north of Mongolia. 4000km away from Ukraine. Causing a major fire inside a tunnel in the middle of the wilderness and in winter is going to make repairs really hard.

    This is one of just two lines (the other being the Trans-Siberian) that connects the western part of russia with China and North Korea. Something like 75% of all east-west transportation happens along those two lines. And the Trans-siberian crosses vast regions of wilderness with lots of vulnerable bridges (almost 4000) along the route.
    Plot twist, we find out it wasn't Ukraine, but China just so it can make Russia more dependent on it.

  4. #35664
    Quote Originally Posted by Kallisto View Post
    Plot twist, we find out it wasn't Ukraine, but China just so it can make Russia more dependent on it.
    Plot twist. It wasn't an "attack" at all, but simple bog standard shitty Russian Equipment failure. Of course, Russia will never admit it, so obviously it has to be a Ukranian "Attack". Lol.

  5. #35665
    Quote Originally Posted by Surfd View Post
    Plot twist. It wasn't an "attack" at all, but simple bog standard shitty Russian Equipment failure. Of course, Russia will never admit it, so obviously it has to be a Ukranian "Attack". Lol.
    TBH I would expect that to be the actual truth for a lot of the failures that's going on. Especially when nearly all the professionals are either dragged to the front or escaped out of the nation.

  6. #35666
    The dolphins that Russia was training might of escaped.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...h=707c5a4917ae

  7. #35667
    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    Not sure how they did it (and we may never find out for opsec reasons), but Ukraine's intelligence service has apparently blown up a train pulling more than 40 fuel tankers inside a 15km long tunnel along the BAM line just north of Mongolia. 4000km away from Ukraine. Causing a major fire inside a tunnel in the middle of the wilderness and in winter is going to make repairs really hard.

    This is one of just two lines (the other being the Trans-Siberian) that connects the western part of russia with China and North Korea. Something like 75% of all east-west transportation happens along those two lines. And the Trans-siberian crosses vast regions of wilderness with lots of vulnerable bridges (almost 4000) along the route.
    Seems that a second train might have been blown up as well.

  8. #35668
    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    Seems that a second train might have been blown up as well.
    Yeah, reportedly russia rerouted trains after the first attack along a bypass, part of which was over a 25m high bridge. When a fuel train taking this bypass was crossing the bridge a series of explosive charges went off.

    A burning fuel train on a bridge sounds like a bad combo.
    Last edited by Corvus; 2023-12-01 at 01:30 PM.

  9. #35669
    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    Yeah, reportedly russia rerouted trains after the first attack along a bypass, part of which was over a 25m high bridge. When a fuel train taking this bypass was crossing the bridge a series of explore charges went off.

    A burning fuel train on a bridge sounds like a bad combo.
    Played like a fiddle, apparently.

  10. #35670
    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    Yeah, reportedly russia rerouted trains after the first attack along a bypass, part of which was over a 25m high bridge. When a fuel train taking this bypass was crossing the bridge a series of explore charges went off.

    A burning fuel train on a bridge sounds like a bad combo.
    Well that does make the notion of this being an accident a lot more unlikely.
    It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death

  11. #35671
    Quote Originally Posted by Deus Mortis View Post
    The dolphins that Russia was training might of escaped.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...h=707c5a4917ae
    "So long and thanks for all the fish" intensifies.

    Dontrike/Shadow Priest/Black Cell Faction Friend Code - 5172-0967-3866

  12. #35672
    So to sum up the last 3-4 weeks:

    1. Counteroffensive "did not achieve as much as was hoped" - read, it is over (though it de facto was couple months ago), Ukraine is "building fortifications".
    2. Western weapons/ammo deliveries have faltered, EU has officialy failed with the artillery ammo production (heeyyyy....), no magic GLSDB bombs anytime soon, etc.
    3. Western money flow also has faltered.
    4. Russia's military production is ever increasing and pumping out large amount of materiel, as per people like Stoltenberg himself.
    5. Russia has large stockpiles of missiles and drones for winter strikes, as per Ukraine.
    6. Russia is slowly pushing forward in couple of places.
    7. Oil price cap "never worked at all".
    8. Ukraine has manpower and conscription issues, major overhaul is in the works to get more people to frontline.

    But none of this matters, right? 3 days, ha ha ha! Not like I expect any normal answer anyway...

    I could also ask about the amount of negativity in Western press during those weeks, like the talks about conflict between Zelensky and Zaluzhniy, and sudden increase in discussion about talks with Russia (funny, they all assume Russia would just accept them). Or the recent spat in Ukraine where a deputy suddenly started shitting on Zalyzhniy.
    And no, I do not mean Fox. What, are all of them doomposting or paid Russian agents?

    P.S.
    Dolphins, lol.

  13. #35673
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    They really going to win this winter guys.

  14. #35674
    Quote Originally Posted by Easo View Post
    So to sum up the last 3-4 weeks:

    1. Counteroffensive "did not achieve as much as was hoped" - read, it is over (though it de facto was couple months ago), Ukraine is "building fortifications".
    2. Western weapons/ammo deliveries have faltered, EU has officialy failed with the artillery ammo production (heeyyyy....), no magic GLSDB bombs anytime soon, etc.
    3. Western money flow also has faltered.
    4. Russia's military production is ever increasing and pumping out large amount of materiel, as per people like Stoltenberg himself.
    5. Russia has large stockpiles of missiles and drones for winter strikes, as per Ukraine.
    6. Russia is slowly pushing forward in couple of places.
    7. Oil price cap "never worked at all".
    8. Ukraine has manpower and conscription issues, major overhaul is in the works to get more people to frontline.

    But none of this matters, right? 3 days, ha ha ha! Not like I expect any normal answer anyway...

    I could also ask about the amount of negativity in Western press during those weeks, like the talks about conflict between Zelensky and Zaluzhniy, and sudden increase in discussion about talks with Russia (funny, they all assume Russia would just accept them). Or the recent spat in Ukraine where a deputy suddenly started shitting on Zalyzhniy.
    And no, I do not mean Fox. What, are all of them doomposting or paid Russian agents?

    P.S.
    Dolphins, lol.
    And why should we pay attention to the poster that was wrong about virtually everything about this war from day 1? Shall we link you the litany of pathetic "pronouncements" you've made since this 3 day special mission was started?

    You are a joke on this thread, I'm afraid. Mr Fog'o'war himself.
    When challenging a Kzin, a simple scream of rage is sufficient. You scream and you leap.
    Quote Originally Posted by George Carlin
    Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
    Quote Originally Posted by Douglas Adams
    It is a well-known fact that those people who must want to rule people are, ipso facto, those least suited to do it... anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job.

  15. #35675
    When in doubt, Easo posts the typical russian XAXAXA copium. For a guy who looks down on the good guys-siding posters, he sure feels the need to come shitpost here and vanish right after for a while like a true russian mobik in Ukraine. Perhaps Easo is programmed to post after each major failure of Russia?

  16. #35676
    The people here were seriously discussing if the meatcube was real. That alone says enough about who exactly believes in an insane propaganda and stereotypes.

    Yet still the question stands - where is the discussion about recent events and "discoveries"? Nothing but the usual memeposting and cherrypicking. No, not even recent - last few months already by this point, if not more.
    Where are the fucking guns? Where is the fucking ammo? Where's the damn money from the OUR GDP IS SO MUCH BIGGER countries?

    Existing deliveries were not enough for the counteroffensive. So far nothing even similar in size has been announced much less delivered and even if it were why would it work second time?
    How, exactly, can Ukraine win in the current situation?

    You do not have to have answers but if you actually care you should at least ask the questions.

  17. #35677
    Quote Originally Posted by Easo View Post
    The people here were seriously discussing if the meatcube was real. That alone says enough about who exactly believes in an insane propaganda and stereotypes.

    Yet still the question stands - where is the discussion about recent events and "discoveries"? Nothing but the usual memeposting and cherrypicking. No, not even recent - last few months already by this point, if not more.
    Where are the fucking guns? Where is the fucking ammo? Where's the damn money from the OUR GDP IS SO MUCH BIGGER countries?

    Existing deliveries were not enough for the counteroffensive. So far nothing even similar in size has been announced much less delivered and even if it were why would it work second time?
    How, exactly, can Ukraine win in the current situation?

    You do not have to have answers but if you actually care you should at least ask the questions.
    And what if Ukraine indeed ends up losing, doing massive crippling concessions? You will come here to laugh about genocided ukrainians, crippled, ravaged, decimated country that might never recover?

    Tells more about you than us when you so desperately want to be right in this matter, cheering for a terrorist nazi Russia because "you were right".

  18. #35678
    Quote Originally Posted by Easo View Post
    So to sum up the last 3-4 weeks:

    1. Counteroffensive "did not achieve as much as was hoped" - read, it is over (though it de facto was couple months ago), Ukraine is "building fortifications".
    2. Western weapons/ammo deliveries have faltered, EU has officialy failed with the artillery ammo production (heeyyyy....), no magic GLSDB bombs anytime soon, etc.
    3. Western money flow also has faltered.
    4. Russia's military production is ever increasing and pumping out large amount of materiel, as per people like Stoltenberg himself.
    5. Russia has large stockpiles of missiles and drones for winter strikes, as per Ukraine.
    6. Russia is slowly pushing forward in couple of places.
    7. Oil price cap "never worked at all".
    8. Ukraine has manpower and conscription issues, major overhaul is in the works to get more people to frontline.

    But none of this matters, right? 3 days, ha ha ha! Not like I expect any normal answer anyway...

    I could also ask about the amount of negativity in Western press during those weeks, like the talks about conflict between Zelensky and Zaluzhniy, and sudden increase in discussion about talks with Russia (funny, they all assume Russia would just accept them). Or the recent spat in Ukraine where a deputy suddenly started shitting on Zalyzhniy.
    And no, I do not mean Fox. What, are all of them doomposting or paid Russian agents?

    P.S.
    Dolphins, lol.
    1) Yup mines are a bitch and Russia had too much time to lay defenses down, as is the case attacking fortified areas is amazingly hard. As seeb from the amount of men and machine that Russia is losing trying to take a small town atm.

    2)Problem is that a war of this size uses an insane amount of ammo/arty and no one was prepared for it, and to get stuff set up takes a long time. So far the west has sent 2million 155mm shells alone to Ukraine. At the start of 2023 the US was only producing 14k 155 shells a month, with it now around 28k, it is set to reach 60k a month next year and a goal of 80k by the end of 2025. Even these numbers are incredibly low as Russia at the start of the year was firing 60k shells a day, with Ukraine now firing around 7k a day.
    https://www.reuters.com/business/aer...er%20artillery.
    https://www.defensenews.com/land/202...illery-rounds/
    https://www.businessinsider.com/ukra...20in%20Ukraine.

    3)It has slowed down, but numerous countries are still sending them stuff monthly.

    4)Surprised it did not do it sooner seeing how bad they are doing against their neighbor. Russia for how powerful they said they were should not be in a stalemate with a country that has a population 1/3 theirs.

    5)Yup

    6)Not hard to do when you don't care about human lives of your country men. The shit coming out of those areas is insane in how much equipment Russia is losing.

    8)Both sides need more people. Putin has ordered another 172k troops to be added to the army.
    https://abcnews.go.com/International...otal-105314951

    Anything but a total victory for Russia is a gigantic embarrassment for them. In my opinion neither side will probably win with the terms they want. There will be movements of land here and there, but the land is quite static and the cost to secure new land by brute force requires an insane cost.

  19. #35679
    Quote Originally Posted by Easo View Post
    The people here were seriously discussing if the meatcube was real. That alone says enough about who exactly believes in an insane propaganda and stereotypes.

    Yet still the question stands - where is the discussion about recent events and "discoveries"? Nothing but the usual memeposting and cherrypicking. No, not even recent - last few months already by this point, if not more.
    Where are the fucking guns? Where is the fucking ammo? Where's the damn money from the OUR GDP IS SO MUCH BIGGER countries?

    Existing deliveries were not enough for the counteroffensive. So far nothing even similar in size has been announced much less delivered and even if it were why would it work second time?
    How, exactly, can Ukraine win in the current situation?

    You do not have to have answers but if you actually care you should at least ask the questions.
    Yes the EU fucked up the response majorly and I will never forgive any of our politicians for how we nickel and dimed the support for Ukraine.

    We fucked it up from day 1... in 2014.

  20. #35680
    We need to be clear about something.

    The West is playing a delicate game with russia where we are trying to undermine its military capabilities without pushing it into a clear defeat. We're letting putin cling to hope of victory even though the war is clearly doomed to fail. This strategic ambiguity allows us to maintain an elusive position where we don't crack down too hard on countries like China that are helping russia with some things and we sometimes make it seem like financial support for Ukraine is up in the air: "look over here!"-approach while slipping Ukraine something through other channels. It's important to realize that most aid to Ukraine is fungible - supporting them with non-lethal aid makes them able to focus more of their economy on lethal stuff, and vice versa. This strategy also works for the people in the West who oppose helping them, making them feel impactful and have political agency. "At leazt we don'ts help themz with lethalz stuffz #PeaceNotWar"

    This approach keeps putin under the illusion that he has some control over the situation. It's also why the West delays promised deliveries to Ukraine, creating a sense of uncertainty but also changes the pace of the war. Despite these general delays, we have been very good at supplying air defense systems: it protects civilians but doesn't influence the battlefield that much (I mean, they don't really aim at anything other than civilians...). This may even bait putin into escalating missile attacks, which further drains russia's coffers and offers us a window into the capabilities and flaws of their military tech.

    Don't be fooled by Hungary, putin's 'ally' - they haven't actually effectively threatened support for Ukraine; they simply act depending on what suits them best but won't truly challenge things in practice. Órban knows he wouldn't 'survive' true opposition to the West. It's mainly us regular folks who thinks in "omg, Órban is SUCH a putin lover... he totally hates Biden because he is progressive!!!"-terms. Meanwhile, the top folk don't really have true ideological personas behind their actions, nor feelings in that way towards other top folks.

    At the heart of this strategy is the goal of weakening russia enough to prevent it from repeating its aggressive actions for a very long time, which Lloyd Austin was very open about at the very start of the conflict. We're not necessarily aiming for Ukraine to reclaim Crimea, Donbas, or get reparations - maximum "win." The key is for Ukraine to simply hold its ground, and that in itself means russia hasn't won. This does not mean that Ukraine can't win, just that we in the West are only committed to their survival.

    The United States with its advanced war gaming capabilities, knows very well how much they can provide for this purpose. Their expertise in designing and implementing these complex strategies is evident in the very calibrated support provided to Ukraine - enough to keep them afloat, but not enough for a decisive victory (nor defeat).

    Managing the situation so that putin doesn't see it as completely hopeless is crucial; we want to avoid him retreating to regroup or, in the worst-case scenario, resorting to nuclear weapons. It's a delicate walk, but the West is determined to keep russia in check through this and the sanctions. We need to internalize this better and also realize that this is the strategy that helps in the long run for most people - including Ukrainians. Yes, one can argue it's unfair to Ukrainians, but that's all on putin in the end. He is a threat and russia needs to be put back a few decades. Usually, sanctions take quite a bit of time to work well, but the zugzwang putin put himself in is accelerating it. Look at how North Korea bloomed for a while, and was even better than the South, until it couldn't keep up. Look at the difference between them and South Korea today. Sanctions take time to set in and are extremely powerful.
    Last edited by Voidism; 2023-12-03 at 07:59 AM.

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