1. #35701
    Quote Originally Posted by Vankrys View Post
    It's all fine and dandy to give Putin the option to save face and convince his people that victory still is within Russia's grasp, but it would yield to absolutely nothing if, under the table, away from the public eye, US diplomats wouldn't have an open dialog with to Russian diplomats.

    And what needs to be said (that the public may never know) is that Russia will never win this war, that Russia needs to find an exit strategy right now, the greater the delay, the worst it's gonna be for Russia.

    But the Ukraine will not lose, this has to be made crystal clear to Russian diplomats still willing to save their country, so they can convince Putin.
    Hanging Putin from the Kremlin wall has always been an option for them.

  2. #35702
    I am Murloc!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ulmita View Post
    This war is obviously turned into attrition. Time is on the side of Russia.
    Ukraine has a 50 trillions dollars GDP alliance behind them, Russia economy is collapsing, Russian industry is dying without western imports.

    Think again.

    And no, China does not want to get dragged into a war it hasn't chosen.

  3. #35703
    Over 9000! ringpriest's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vankrys View Post
    Ukraine has a 50 trillions dollars GDP alliance behind them, Russia economy is collapsing, Russian industry is dying without western imports.
    Russia is operating under soft, partial sanctions from the West. It needs Western imports and support to function, but it is getting them, just less and more indirectly that Putin's regime would like. Hard, complete sanctions would grind Russian war production (and the rest of its economy) to a standstill in weeks... which no one wants, because it would panic Putin's regime.
    "In today’s America, conservatives who actually want to conserve are as rare as liberals who actually want to liberate. The once-significant language of an earlier era has had the meaning sucked right out of it, the better to serve as camouflage for a kleptocratic feeding frenzy in which both establishment parties participate with equal abandon" (Taking a break from the criminal, incompetent liars at the NSA, to bring you the above political observation, from The Archdruid Report.)

  4. #35704
    Quote Originally Posted by Vankrys View Post

    And no, China does not want to get dragged into a war it hasn't chosen.
    To add to this, they are already floundering from systemic mismanagement and governance leading threatening a full-blown socioeconomic collapse, they aren't in a state to actually participate even if they wanted to.
    "My successes are my own, but my failures are due to extremist leftist liberals" - Party of Personal Responsibility

    Prediction for the future

  5. #35705
    Reforged Gone Wrong The Stormbringer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Deus Mortis View Post
    Anything but a total victory for Russia is a gigantic embarrassment for them. In my opinion neither side will probably win with the terms they want. There will be movements of land here and there, but the land is quite static and the cost to secure new land by brute force requires an insane cost.
    Something tells me it would've been much cheaper overall, especially in lives lost, for Russia to have just asked to buy land from Ukraine instead of going to war--sorry, a three day special operation--with them.

  6. #35706
    I don't follow this war anymore but I'm surprised that even the most loyal pro-ukraine trolls on the web have started to whine that Ukraine will lose because the west doesn't support it enough and even Stoltenberg had made a statement that we should wait for bad news regarding Ukraine war. Several American generals blame Ukraine for failing producing enough ammunitions. It seems that Russia's production far exceeds that of Ukraine's and the west support is starting to fade and can't keep up anymore.

    Not sure how this would end up but I feel bad for the Ukrainians who believed in western lies and got betrayed and died, they were pushed into this offensive that they were never ready to complete successfully without an airforce and far more support. Unless all of these statements are lies and a mindgame, east Ukraine is lost and maybe more will soon follow.

    The west has failed miserably and none will ever believe their propaganda and alliances anymore, some news sites that were pro-Russia and looked very trollish now look legit.

  7. #35707
    Quote Originally Posted by Vampiregenesis View Post
    The west has failed miserably and none will ever believe their propaganda and alliances anymore, some news sites that were pro-Russia and looked very trollish now look legit.
    This is quite the unverified claim. You feel pretty confident people will just like, take your claims at face value and not ask for verification or anything?

  8. #35708
    I am Murloc!
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    Quote Originally Posted by ringpriest View Post
    Russia is operating under soft, partial sanctions from the West. It needs Western imports and support to function, but it is getting them, just less and more indirectly that Putin's regime would like. Hard, complete sanctions would grind Russian war production (and the rest of its economy) to a standstill in weeks... which no one wants, because it would panic Putin's regime.
    yes, black market of high tech parts has developed in country in central Asia, but that also means that manufacturing costs are rising significantly. Russia's budget has a large deficit. Once Putin war chest is depleted, the Russian society will collapse. Not a lot of bank will be willing to lend money to Russia and risk western sanctions, and after all the seizing of assets Putin has done, near zero investor will be interested in capital venture in Russia.

  9. #35709
    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    This is quite the unverified claim. You feel pretty confident people will just like, take your claims at face value and not ask for verification or anything?
    https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...81169675690116
    https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...67935040131373

    I have more if you want.

  10. #35710
    I'm unsure why you linked this. I'm not disagreeing with the realistic assessment that western allies might lose interest over time (which frustrates me to no end, this is one of the best investments these nations could make to counter Russian global fuckery) or that Russia has a real chance of winning - that's always been vey real.

    I'm asking about the links to propaganda, and more specifically what pro-Russian news sites suddenly look legit?

  11. #35711
    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    I'm unsure why you linked this. I'm not disagreeing with the realistic assessment that western allies might lose interest over time (which frustrates me to no end, this is one of the best investments these nations could make to counter Russian global fuckery) or that Russia has a real chance of winning - that's always been vey real.

    I'm asking about the links to propaganda, and more specifically what pro-Russian news sites suddenly look legit?
    Did you forget that Zelensky and Budanov were saying that they will conquer Crimea soon? or maybe when Blinken said that the Russian army is the second best in Ukraine? There are a lot of examples of high officials who made it look like Ukraine is winning or is going to win, they tried to create a momentum with lies when it was clear that Ukraine stand no chance in this offensive, maybe if they prepared for a longer time and improved their airforce they would stand a chance but they were pushed too early into this. What we see now is an unstoppable Russia completely unharmed from sanctions and with great production rates. Ukraine was used as a pawn to cause some damage and then be discarded, the west didn't want it to win this. These men were sacrificed as tools, I would feel very insulted if I was an Ukrainian. The "combined arms" strategy was also a lie because this requires an Airforce and Ukraine is lacking there.

    There are some local news sites (on my country but I guess on other countries too) that were writing lots of stuff and analysis but it looked trollish, keep in mind many news sites invested into this, (pro-russia propaganda), these will end up being winners because if Russia ends up winning, they will now look credible.
    Last edited by Vampiregenesis; 2023-12-04 at 05:21 PM.

  12. #35712
    Quote Originally Posted by Vampiregenesis View Post
    Did you forget that Zelensky and Budanov were saying that they will conquer Crimea soon? or maybe when Blinken said that the Russian army is the second best in Ukraine? There are a lot of examples of high officials who made it look like Ukraine is winning or is going to win, they tried to create a momentum with lies when it was clear that Ukraine stand no chance in this offensive, maybe if they prepared for a longer time and improved their airforce they would stand a chance but they were pushed too early into this. What we see now is an unstoppable Russia completely unharmed from sanctions and with great production rates. Ukraine was used as a pawn to cause some damage and then be discarded, the west didn't want it to win this. These men were sacrificed as tools, I would feel very insulted if I was an Ukrainian.

    There are some local news sites (on my country, maybe others too) that were writing lots of stuff and analysis but it looked trollish, keep in mind many news sites invested into this, (pro-russia propaganda), these will end up being winners because if Russia ends up winning, they will now look credible.
    Those are a whole lot of words that aren't even attempting to provide links backing up your claims, but let's have a go at it!

    Zelensky is the leader of a nation on the defense, he makes some bold aspirational claims...and?

    Blinken was shit talking the Russian military at a time they were getting their asses kicked, he was also discussing how the status of Russia's military in the global eye has plummeted now that we've seen them in action again - this time without being little green men. They're still likely the second best military in Ukraine, they just benefit from having millions more young men to pull off the streets and out of prison to throw into the meatgrinder and being a nation with a larger economy/production capactity than tiny little Ukraine, who are reliant on western support to fight a nation that's vastly larger than they are.

    Yes, allies will push positive messages to continue to generate support for the war. That doesn't make them false, at the time most messages were conveyed they were largely accurate.

    An "unstoppable Russia" is sure a way to put it I guess if you're looking to talk up how great Russia is. The more realistic take is a spectacularly weak Russia is simply managing to outlast western nations supporting Ukraine. This isn't some grand victory as you seem to think it might be, this is basically Russia being willing to throw more of their citizens into the meat grinder than Ukraine can logistically do. "Unharmed from sanctions" is not remotely accurate and flies in the face of the realities in Russia, including the multiple time-bombs that they're setting themselves up, including demographic.

    Ukraine was a willing, happy "pawn" because their interests were defending themselves against hostile foreign invaders. If that means being the one fighting the "proxy war" for the west, so be it. They were going to be fighting the hostile invaders either way, why not do so with more equipment and training by finding western partners and allies?

    I don't think anyone is interested on your views if you were a hypothetical Ukranian.

    Oh, and gotcha, so your girlfriend goes to another school but she totally exists and she's really real and you'll ask her for a picture so you can show us what she looks like later?

  13. #35713
    I think you are being a little extreme with your analysis here. I don't think ukraine had no chance, if it was that bad they would be being pushed back still and that's not happening at all
    I think ukraine is preparing for the long haul, they are also building new production lines, working with other countries to manufacture ammunition and repair and maintain western nato vehicles. This war is no where near over, and ukraine is still in good position with the EU and others behind them, just not as loudly as before.

  14. #35714
    Quote Originally Posted by Voidism View Post
    Well, I agree that we should have done way more historically. It's on us to correct it now, especially since the West is the target of putin's wrath in the end - he intends to challenge article 5 at some future point.

    Nuclear escalation management is a real thing and not something our top folks take lightly. Yes, sometimes it might feel a bit too cautious I agree but even if there is a 0.1 % chance - that's about the end of humanity basically. 1 in 1000 chance to end humanity is nothing to play around with. At least, the ones in charge don't think so. Fortunately.
    The west ruled that we give up our nuclear sovereignity the moment we allowed Russia to be the owner of escalation and threat. Russia was given free reign to apply both into it's narrative and the western limp dicked reaction and appeasement over the Russian nuclear threat gave them the de facto right conduct any sort of horrific crime against humanity that they'd want in pursue of their imperialistic goals and once you give over the tools of escalation and threat, it is very difficult to re-obtain them without absolute show of power. It's a grave we as a whole dug.

    A grave that we should get out of and exercise that show of power to re-obtain the geopolitical power required to conduct these modern day affairs but at current trajectory will not happen. What we'll see is continued appeasement over their threats and deteriorating support for Ukraine in wake of counter-offensive that with current level of support was bound to be what it was. And that's collectively on the West as we failed to provide them the tools required for real operational success, especially in air and in artillery. Now that is being thrown around as an excuse for seemingly lessening support and the increased narrative over Ukrainian failure and underhanded calls for peace which probably is the most disgusting example of the current outlook.
    Last edited by Wilian; 2023-12-04 at 05:40 PM.
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  15. #35715
    Elemental Lord Makabreska's Avatar
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    Oh hey! The guy who last time being here called us all "western shills" and went searching for a "Russian point of view" is back!
    Sometimes, the light of the moon is a key to other spaces. I've found a place where, for a night or two, the streets curve in unfamiliar ways. If I walk here, I might find insight, or I might be touched by madness.

  16. #35716
    The Lightbringer Iphie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Stormbringer View Post
    Something tells me it would've been much cheaper overall, especially in lives lost, for Russia to have just asked to buy land from Ukraine instead of going to war--sorry, a three day special operation--with them.
    Buy...land? From an inferior? PREPOSTEROUS! I mean that's probably what putin thinks. That and "why buy when you can take".

  17. #35717
    Quote Originally Posted by Makabreska View Post
    Oh hey! The guy who last time being here called us all "western shills" and went searching for a "Russian point of view" is back!
    He was oh so worried for ukrainian conscription how horrible it is to be called to defend one's country. Now he turned hostile and anti-Ukraine

    Russian propaganda claims another victim.

  18. #35718
    The count of interesting (?) articles is accelerating. Someone is really pushing that Zelensky vs Zaluzhny angle.
    Stoltenberg's "bad times" one also has to be noted. Better hope that the circus that is USA Congress will approve new aid package, as the current one is almost done.

    Quote Originally Posted by Vankrys View Post
    Ukraine has a 50 trillions dollars GDP alliance behind them, Russia economy is collapsing, Russian industry is dying without western imports.

    Think again.

    And no, China does not want to get dragged into a war it hasn't chosen.
    See the question above about where the fucking money/ammo/guns are in regards to that HUGE ASS GDP. As for dying economies, well, you better not look into Europe's heavy industry, especially that of Germany. It clearly is all going according to plan (?), any day now...
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadoowpunk View Post
    Take that haters.
    IF IM STUPID, so is Donald Trump.

  19. #35719
    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    Ukraine was a willing, happy "pawn" because their interests were defending themselves against hostile foreign invaders.
    By openly stating and actively trying to join the openly anti-Russia alliance.
    5head right there.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by alach View Post
    ukraine is still in good position
    With a little caveat of running out of Mikolas to subdue and send to be turned into mincemeat by FABs and Sunshines.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Iphie View Post
    Buy...land? From an inferior? PREPOSTEROUS! I mean that's probably what putin thinks. That and "why buy when you can take".
    In 1721, Pyotr the Great literally bought most of the Baltic lands.
    Just a reminder.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Did I ever tell you the definition, of..Preemptive Strike?

    “If we telegraphed our plans on social media and on tv, we’d achieve nothing,” says Mykhailo Zabrodsky, a former commander of Ukraine’s air-assault forces, who remains close to the planning process. The lieutenant-general insists an operation to take back Crimea is not only possible, it was something that was being prepared for 2023.
    https://www.economist.com/europe/202...-and-difficult

  20. #35720
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    Quote Originally Posted by PgStckr View Post
    In 1721, Pyotr the Great literally bought most of the Baltic lands.
    Just a reminder.
    TIL that reparations for declaring war and giving over land won during war (while returning other land -Finland) is "buying".
    Sweden sceeded the Baltics, Russia stopped occupying Finland.
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