Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Jastall]

You are underestimating Russia and this is a mistake.

The way Russia operates with the ex-Soviet states is not unlike Iran. They have proxies spread in the whole region with all these self-proclaimed "People's Republics", such as Transnistria in Moldova and South Ossetia in Georgia respectively - both are enough of a headache for the respective states to be wary of joining NATO fulltime.

In the end the real threat Russia poses for ex-Soviet republics is not "nooks", but simply Russia doing what they did in Ukraine in 2014. And with how Russia acted in Ukraine - it's even more dangerous, because nobody in the surrounding countries wants to risk another supposedly unlikely Russian freakout.

The "nooks" are more of a boogeyman here to impress some US twitter mobs. The actual threat the post-Soviet republics are dealing with is much more real and close to them.

There aren't that many countries left to bully this way tho. Almost everyone bordering or adjacent to Russia is now either part of their sphere of influence (some being slowly lost to China instead of NATO, perhaps) or an actual part of NATO that they won't be able to even sneeze at for the foreseeable future. Ukraine is pretty much the last unaligned country up for grabs of note. Maybe the next adventure circa 2035 will be in the Caucasus, but aside from that I don't see who would need to heed that specific warning. Pretty much all those that can join NATO ended up doing it for that reason as well, it removes uncertainty RE Russian freakouts based on their semi delusional view of history and politics.

[Elegiac]

Moldova and Georgia

I notice you're having to limit your sample size to two republics who have been victim to Russian bullshit prior to the present invasion of Ukraine (i.e. when the actual state of Russian forces was still largely speculative) rather than acknowledge the basic fact that NATO is now larger post-Ukraine than it would have been had the invasion not happened, lol.

[Gaidax]

There aren't that many countries left to bully this way tho. Almost everyone bordering or adjacent to Russia is now either part of their sphere of influence (some being slowly lost to China instead of NATO, perhaps) or an actual part of NATO that they won't be able to even sneeze at for the foreseeable future. Ukraine is pretty much the last unaligned country up for grabs of note. Maybe the next adventure circa 2035 will be in the Caucasus, but aside from that I don't see who would need to heed that specific warning. Pretty much all those that can join NATO ended up doing it for that reason as well, it removes uncertainty RE Russian freakouts based on their semi delusional view of history and politics.

The whole "dance" is that no ex-Soviet republic directly bordering Russia wants to trigger potential invasion.

There are balancing facts of trying to get closer to the West, while not going far enough to result in a disaster, after all Russia did not shy from destroying a chunk of Ukraine and even annexing parts of it and ex-Soviet republics simply don't want to gamble with such a dangerous and unpredictable enemy.

There is definitely no love lost for Russia, but nobody wants to test and see how fast NATO can respond (or whether it even will) to Russia rolling in and taking a chunk of their country.

Hence Georgia and Moldova are not part of NATO, simply because they know that Russia more likely than not might invade, especially given they don't have much to lose anymore, having burned all the bridges with the West.

It's practically a risk management matrix for those countries. Nobody can truly predict what will happen, but the risk of Ukraine scenario is real and to be avoided. Will Ukraine win in the end and Russia fuck off? Let's say even in case of yes including Crimea - the reconstruction will take decades. Nobody wants to risk that.

[Benggaul]

Cool story, bro. Please take your loaded Twitter opinions about my country outside this thread. You have a whole shitthread about it to hallucinate in with your buddies all you like.

My "bad takes" are a simple reality on the ground. Yes, Moldova and Georgia are not rushing to join NATO, precisely because Russia can do their own version of "People's Republic" right at their doorstep at moment's notice.

Heck, in case of Georgia - they already had this episode. So yes, the "nooks" are not the real problem here - Russia potentially pulling out another Ukraine in ex-Soviet republics actually is.

You can keep getting triggered over that fact all you like, it does not change it.

Jackass, Russia isn't even "pulling a Ukraine" in Ukraine when, according to them and their cheerleaders here they were supposed to be able to just steamroll into Kyiv and end their war at any moment for years now during this three day operation. And now that they've poured a good portion of their military might and resources into their ridiculous war with Ukraine and still can't seal the deal they are in fucking no position to "pull a Ukraine" anywhere else for the foreseeable future.

Are you so frustrated with not being able to defend your country's ongoing genocide in Palestine that you decided to make yourself look like a fool in other threads instead?

[Gaidax]

Jackass, Russia isn't even "pulling a Ukraine" in Ukraine when, according to them and their cheerleaders here they were supposed to be able to just steamroll into Kyiv and end their war at any moment for years now during this three day operation. And now that they've poured a good portion of their military might and resources into their ridiculous war with Ukraine and still can't seal the deal they are in fucking no position to "pull a Ukraine" anywhere else for the foreseeable future.

Are you so frustrated with not being able to defend your country's ongoing genocide in Palestine that you decided to make yourself look like a fool in other threads instead?

First of all, relax.

Secondly, Russia unleashed uncountable death and destruction upon Ukraine. When others bordering Russia look on this - they aren't worried about whether their country will be taken over or not, but are worried about the prospect of the same destruction hitting them.

I'm not sure why this concept is so hard to understand. Nobody wants a war in their country, especially not against a behemoth like Russia, because there are no "good" outcomes for it.

That is why I specifically mentioned a "best case scenario" for Ukraine. Even if everything works out, the destruction, the lost generation and the pain from it all will remain for decades.

You can rage against this point all you like, but that is what government members in Moldova and Georgia think about, when they manage this very real risk. Especially, given Transnistria and South Ossetia being a thing. They are practically already in a precondition state.

[Benggaul]

First of all, relax.

Secondly, Russia unleashed uncountable death and destruction upon Ukraine. When others bordering Russia look on this - they aren't worried about whether their country will be taken over or not, but are worried about the prospect of the same destruction hitting them.

I'm not sure why this concept is so hard to understand. Nobody wants a war in their country, especially not against a behemoth like Russia, because there are no "good" outcomes for it.

That is why I specifically mentioned a "best case scenario" for Ukraine. Even if everything works out, the destruction, the lost generation and the pain from it all will remain for decades.

You can rage against this point all you like, but that is what government members in Moldova and Georgia think about, when they manage this very real risk. Especially, given Transnistria and South Ossetia being a thing. They are practically already in a precondition state.

Oh I'm perfectly capable of remaining relaxed while reminding you you're an idiot.

And again, my point is that Russia is in no fucking position to do the same thing to other countries and won't be for a long, long time after draining a huge portion of their military resources in Ukraine. Sure, there's been a lot of death and destruction in Ukraine--and the bulk of that death and destruction has been to Russian forces and equipment. Can they win due to attrition? Sure, but it's not going to leave them in any shape for another dustup, and it's a pretty safe bet that nobody is more intimidated by the prospect of a Russian invasion after witnessing how fucking inept they've been at every step of the war. If anything it's proving they're better off siding with NATO because even with the trickle of support with castoff armaments Ukraine is getting from the West they've been bleeding Russia to the point of anemia for every meter of land and I don't see that ending anytime soon.

[Deus Mortis]

Jackass, Russia isn't even "pulling a Ukraine" in Ukraine when, according to them and their cheerleaders here they were supposed to be able to just steamroll into Kyiv and end their war at any moment for years now during this three day operation. And now that they've poured a good portion of their military might and resources into their ridiculous war with Ukraine and still can't seal the deal they are in fucking no position to "pull a Ukraine" anywhere else for the foreseeable future.

Are you so frustrated with not being able to defend your country's ongoing genocide in Palestine that you decided to make yourself look like a fool in other threads instead?

You do realize that unlike Ukraine those two countries are extremely weak and Russia would actually be able to roll over them, even in its current state. Moldova has an army size of 6,500, and Georgia has an army size of 37,000. Ukraine had an army size of over 200,000 before the war and was far better equipped.

https://www.globalfirepower.com/coun...try_id=moldova Ranked #144
https://www.globalfirepower.com/coun...try_id=georgia Ranked #84

Ukraine for example is ranked #18

[Jastall]

The whole "dance" is that no ex-Soviet republic directly bordering Russia wants to trigger potential invasion.

There are balancing facts of trying to get closer to the West, while not going far enough to result in a disaster, after all Russia did not shy from destroying a chunk of Ukraine and even annexing parts of it and ex-Soviet republics simply don't want to gamble with such a dangerous and unpredictable enemy.

There is definitely no love lost for Russia, but nobody wants to test and see how fast NATO can respond (or whether it even will) to Russia rolling in and taking a chunk of their country.

Hence Georgia and Moldova are not part of NATO, simply because they know that Russia more likely than not might invade, especially given they don't have much to lose anymore, having burned all the bridges with the West.

It's practically a risk management matrix for those countries. Nobody can truly predict what will happen, but the risk of Ukraine scenario is real and to be avoided. Will Ukraine win in the end and Russia fuck off? Let's say even in case of yes including Crimea - the reconstruction will take decades. Nobody wants to risk that.

The flip side of the realistic argument is that, well, Georgia and Moldova aren't really important either. Well Georgia is kinda a gate to the Caucasus which is important I guess but with all the shenanigans currently going on there I strongly doubt Russia wants to roll over the tanks in the region anytime soon.

So that leaves Moldova which... yeah. It's Moldova. Russia is helping a segment of a small country stir shit up. Good for them and all that but I doubt their foreign policy strategy rests upon Moldova, or that NATO cares all that much about the place either.

Ukraine is different due to having a bevy of resources, being a gateway to Russia proper (especially in the minds of those geniuses who actually believe NATO is one excuse away from Barbarrossa'ing them) and most of all being home to Crimea, which is important to Russia's goals due to Sevastopol. But whatever the outcome there I doubt Russia will invade someone else sometime soon. NATO is very, very obviously off-limits and the rest are too small to bother or already aligned with them. What might be interesting is how they react if China starts stealing their satellites in Central Asia. One doubts Russia wants to piss the PRC off, given all the bridges they burned with the West. On the other hand pretending they're a major power is a cornerstone of both their internal and foreign policy. So they can only tolerate so much overstepping.

[Gaidax]

You do realize that unlike Ukraine those two countries are extremely weak and Russia would actually be able to roll over them, even in its current state. Moldova has an army size of 6,500, and Georgia has an army size of 37,000. Ukraine had an army size of over 200,000 before the war and was far better equipped.

https://www.globalfirepower.com/coun...try_id=moldova Ranked #144
https://www.globalfirepower.com/coun...try_id=georgia Ranked #84

Ukraine for example is ranked #18

His problem is that he doesn't realize this, but he sure is fast calling other people idiots, regardless.

And in case of those said 2 countries they already suffer from Russia-backed scheme of "people's republics".

Russia does not even need to invade full stop, they can just cause a flare up in an already existing frozen conflict in these two countries and this already would put a stop to any potential NATO move.

Hence, said 2 states are not even trying and rather manage the complex situation instead of inviting trouble.

It's the better choice for them, as opposed to playing a Russian roulette, especially given the state Russia in, where it is no longer restrained by pretense of keeping up ties with the West. There won't be any fake smiles and "reset" button pushing this time around in the next decade.

- - - Updated - - -

The flip side of the realistic argument is that, well, Georgia and Moldova aren't really important either. Well Georgia is kinda a gate to the Caucasus which is important I guess but with all the shenanigans currently going on there I strongly doubt Russia wants to roll over the tanks in the region anytime soon.

So that leaves Moldova which... yeah. It's Moldova. Russia is helping a segment of a small country stir shit up. Good for them and all that but I doubt their foreign policy strategy rests upon Moldova, or that NATO cares all that much about the place either.

Ukraine is different due to having a bevy of resources, being a gateway to Russia proper (especially in the minds of those geniuses who actually believe NATO is one excuse away from Barbarrossa'ing them) and most of all being home to Crimea, which is important to Russia's goals due to Sevastopol. But whatever the outcome there I doubt Russia will invade someone else sometime soon. NATO is very, very obviously off-limits and the rest are too small to bother or already aligned with them. What might be interesting is how they react if China starts stealing their satellites in Central Asia. One doubts Russia wants to piss the PRC off, given all the bridges they burned with the West. On the other hand pretending they're a major power is a cornerstone of both their internal and foreign policy. So they can only tolerate so much overstepping.

It's mostly about making example of others.

Russia being Russia and all. Ex-Soviet countries joining NATO was a huge problem for Russia even back in the better times of 90s, where there was an illusion of transition to normalcy.

If Russia would let such a small fry like Moldova snub them in such a way, the more powerful and/or important ex-Soviet republics bordering Russia in the Asia would become cheekier than Putin can afford.

And in case of Georgia they already even had a small war going on back in what was it? 2009? That was when Georgia got a little too cheeky for Putin to swallow.

You can't really sell an image of strongman to the unwashed masses with delusions of grandeur when you have some "province" slapping his face.

That is even besides Russia's real or imaginary security concerns.

[Veggie50]

His problem is that he doesn't realize this, but he sure is fast calling other people idiots, regardless.

And in case of those said 2 countries they already suffer from Russia-backed scheme of "people's republics".

Russia does not even need to invade full stop, they can just cause a flare up in an already existing frozen conflict in these two countries and this already would put a stop to any potential NATO move.

Hence, said 2 states are not even trying and rather manage the complex situation instead of inviting trouble.

It's the better choice for them, as opposed to playing a Russian roulette, especially given the state Russia in, where it is no longer restrained by pretense of keeping up ties with the West. There won't be any fake smiles and "reset" button pushing this time around in the next decade.

- - - Updated - - -



It's mostly about making example of others.

Russia being Russia and all. Ex-Soviet countries joining NATO was a huge problem for Russia even back in the better times of 90s, where there was an illusion of transition to normalcy.

If Russia would let such a small fry like Moldova snub them in such a way, the more powerful and/or important ex-Soviet republics bordering Russia in the Asia would become cheekier than Putin can afford.

And in case of Georgia they already even had a small war going on back in what was it? 2009? That was when Georgia got a little too cheeky for Putin to swallow.

You can't really sell an image of strongman to the unwashed masses with delusions of grandeur when you have some "province" slapping his face.

That is even besides Russia's real or imaginary security concerns.

Bowing to tyranny isn’t really “managing the situation” though… it’s just capitulation, which admittedly is how Russia wants the countries around them to “manage” them.

[Ihavewaffles]

Burning abrams tank, not saved by western media plot armor

[Kaleredar]

Burning abrams tank, not saved by western media plot armor

As we've had to remind other posters with pro-Russian inclinations, "Russia is managing this war horribly, is alienating themselves from the rest of the world, is actively burning their future, and is doing so all in the pursuit of a madman's megalomaniacal dream all whilst lying through their teeth to themselves and the world about invented NATO/Nazi/Ukrainian boogeymen" is not mutually exclusive with, nor countered by, "Russia took a shelled-out town" or "Russia blew up a tank somewhere."

[Edge-]

Burning abrams tank, not saved by western media plot armor

Why not link to the western media outlet providing plot armor the image is sourced from?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...h=6c5c6ef84fc0

And give the article a read?

Ignore the Russian propaganda celebrating this first M-1 loss. No tank is invulnerable. And almost all tanks are especially vulnerable to top-down attacks.

Gee, the article more broadly paints this as another day in an ongoing war where both sides lose armor. I do think you be tilting at ze windmills.

[Corvus]

And if certain posters paid attention they'd notice the blow out panels did exactly what they were designed to do and the hatches are open meaning the crew got out. Unlike russian tanks which explode with the crew inside.

[MCMLXXXII]

Burning abrams tank, not saved by western media plot armor

Lol, you're linking that image directly from Forbes, which is "western" media.

[DarkTZeratul]

Burning abrams tank, not saved by western media plot armor

Western "plot armor"? This isn't a fucking story. It's a real goddamn war.

[Specialka]

Burning abrams tank, not saved by western media plot armor

Curious how the turret is still attached to the hull

[Gabriel]

Burning abrams tank, not saved by western media plot armor

[Iphie]

*snip*

Those losses boggle the mind... I'm not even being funny but even Stalin and the moribund Sovjet Union would have looked at this and said: "Fuck that noise.".

[Deus Mortis]

Burning abrams tank, not saved by western media plot armor

Are you telling me that the Abrams tank with the declassified armor got blown up, GASP! You do realize numerous Abrams with this same armor have been blown up in numerous other countries over the past several decades right? There is decades of proof that this tank was not going to be a miracle cure, but unlike the Russian tanks that have their turret enter the space program, the Abrams did its job and the crew most likely survived to fight another day. We sold a ton to Iraq who lost 1/3 of them to damage/destruction to ISIL within a 3 month span.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M1_Abrams

Tanks are not special and Russia knows that first hand. Here is handy link with image and video proof of each one destroyed on Russia's side during this 3 day special operation:
Tanks (2759, of which destroyed: 1803, damaged: 148, abandoned: 269, captured: 539)
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/0...equipment.html