1. #37121
    Quote Originally Posted by Iphie View Post
    A russian line? You know what they can do with those?
    Officially, being really upset about being crossed then never mentioning them again...

  2. #37122
    I really hope “a Russian red line” becomes a commonly used term meaning an easily ignored ultimatum.

  3. #37123
    Elemental Lord Makabreska's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Veggie50 View Post
    I really hope “a Russian red line” becomes a commonly used term meaning an easily ignored ultimatum.
    It kinda already became. "Nooooo don't join NATO else consequencesssss!!!!" The only real threat Pootie has left are nukes.
    Sometimes, the light of the moon is a key to other spaces. I've found a place where, for a night or two, the streets curve in unfamiliar ways. If I walk here, I might find insight, or I might be touched by madness.

  4. #37124
    The Unstoppable Force Gaidax's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Makabreska View Post
    It kinda already became. "Nooooo don't join NATO else consequencesssss!!!!" The only real threat Pootie has left are nukes.
    You are underestimating Russia and this is a mistake.

    The way Russia operates with the ex-Soviet states is not unlike Iran. They have proxies spread in the whole region with all these self-proclaimed "People's Republics", such as Transnistria in Moldova and South Ossetia in Georgia respectively - both are enough of a headache for the respective states to be wary of joining NATO fulltime.

    In the end the real threat Russia poses for ex-Soviet republics is not "nooks", but simply Russia doing what they did in Ukraine in 2014. And with how Russia acted in Ukraine - it's even more dangerous, because nobody in the surrounding countries wants to risk another supposedly unlikely Russian freakout.

    The "nooks" are more of a boogeyman here to impress some US twitter mobs. The actual threat the post-Soviet republics are dealing with is much more real and close to them.
    Last edited by Gaidax; 2024-02-26 at 09:26 PM.

  5. #37125
    Void Lord Elegiac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    You are underestimating Russia and this is a mistake.

    The way Russia operates with the ex-Soviet states is not unlike Iran.
    Way to broadcast you know fuck all about Middle Eastern politics if you think Iran is secretly behind everything Muslim adjacent.

    Your opinion also discounts the fact that Ukraine would only be a cautionary tale if Russia weren't bleeding itself to death in the process.
    Last edited by Elegiac; 2024-02-27 at 12:03 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Marjane Satrapi
    The world is not divided between East and West. You are American, I am Iranian, we don't know each other, but we talk and understand each other perfectly. The difference between you and your government is much bigger than the difference between you and me. And the difference between me and my government is much bigger than the difference between me and you. And our governments are very much the same.

  6. #37126
    The Unstoppable Force Gaidax's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elegiac View Post
    Way to broadcast you know fuck all about Middle Eastern politics if you think Iran is secretly behind everything Muslim adjacent.

    Your opinion also discounts the fact that Ukraine would only be a cautionary tale if Russia weren't bleeding itself to death in the process.
    First of all, you project whatever is in your head and put words in my mouth. No, I did not write "Iran is secretly behind everything Muslim adjacent" and neither I think so. However it is behind plenty of what is going on round these parts and their influence in part is thanks to the proxies they established across the region. Take note - plenty != everything, merely a lot. And Saudi Arabia counterbalances it quite a bit with their own alliances. And yes, much of what is going on is a plain Sunni vs Shia centuries old cold(ish) war, that's also part of all this messy equation.

    Secondly, unlike you, I actually live in the Middle East. Get off your high horse pretending whatever shit you pulled off Twitter and YouTube matches experience of me living here for 3 decades right in the middle of it all.

    Now, are you going to start offtopic here for 5 pages or you lay off me with this?
    Last edited by Gaidax; 2024-02-27 at 12:17 AM.

  7. #37127
    Void Lord Elegiac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    First of all, you project whatever is in your head and put words in my mouth. No, I did not write "Iran is secretly behind everything Muslim adjacent" and neither I think so. However it is behind plenty of what is going on round these parts and their influence in part is thanks to the proxies they established across the region. Take note - plenty != everything, merely a lot. And Saudi Arabia counterbalances it quite a bit with their own alliances. And yes, much of what is going on is a plain Sunni vs Shia centuries old cold(ish) war, that's also part of all this messy equation.

    Secondly, unlike you, I actually live in the Middle East. Get off your high horse pretending whatever shit you pulled off Twitter and YouTube matches experience of me living here for 3 decades right in the middle of it all.

    Now, are you going to start offtopic here for 5 pages or you lay off me with this?
    You're not living "in the middle of it all", you're living in a colony and your viewpoint is entirely shaped by that subjectivity: which is my point, and why we get subjected to shitsquillion versions of the same argument which only ever considers things from a colonial perspective.

    So of course we get bad takes like insisting Ukraine is a cautionary tale for NATO membership when Ukraine wasn't invaded because of NATO in the first place. Saying it was is just an implicit validation of the colonial narrative that Russia - and you - are pushing.
    Quote Originally Posted by Marjane Satrapi
    The world is not divided between East and West. You are American, I am Iranian, we don't know each other, but we talk and understand each other perfectly. The difference between you and your government is much bigger than the difference between you and me. And the difference between me and my government is much bigger than the difference between me and you. And our governments are very much the same.

  8. #37128
    The Unstoppable Force Gaidax's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elegiac View Post
    You're not living "in the middle of it all", you're living in a colony and your viewpoint is entirely shaped by that subjectivity: which is my point, and why we get subjected to shitsquillion versions of the same argument which only ever considers things from a colonial perspective.

    So of course we get bad takes like insisting Ukraine is a cautionary tale for NATO membership when Ukraine wasn't invaded because of NATO in the first place. Saying it was is just an implicit validation of the colonial narrative that Russia - and you - are pushing.
    Cool story, bro. Please take your loaded Twitter opinions about my country outside this thread. You have a whole shitthread about it to hallucinate in with your buddies all you like.

    My "bad takes" are a simple reality on the ground. Yes, Moldova and Georgia are not rushing to join NATO, precisely because Russia can do their own version of "People's Republic" right at their doorstep at moment's notice.

    Heck, in case of Georgia - they already had this episode. So yes, the "nooks" are not the real problem here - Russia potentially pulling out another Ukraine in ex-Soviet republics actually is.

    You can keep getting triggered over that fact all you like, it does not change it.
    Last edited by Gaidax; 2024-02-27 at 01:07 AM.

  9. #37129
    Macron has said western countries sending troops to Ukraine has not been ruled out.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...rce=reddit.com

    Interesting that the statement came from him and not some of the eastern European countries like Poland that would be the ones more likely to do so.

  10. #37130
    The Unstoppable Force Belize's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by George View Post
    This definitely crossed a line.
    Lol, ok buddy.

  11. #37131
    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    You are underestimating Russia and this is a mistake.

    The way Russia operates with the ex-Soviet states is not unlike Iran. They have proxies spread in the whole region with all these self-proclaimed "People's Republics", such as Transnistria in Moldova and South Ossetia in Georgia respectively - both are enough of a headache for the respective states to be wary of joining NATO fulltime.

    In the end the real threat Russia poses for ex-Soviet republics is not "nooks", but simply Russia doing what they did in Ukraine in 2014. And with how Russia acted in Ukraine - it's even more dangerous, because nobody in the surrounding countries wants to risk another supposedly unlikely Russian freakout.

    The "nooks" are more of a boogeyman here to impress some US twitter mobs. The actual threat the post-Soviet republics are dealing with is much more real and close to them.
    There aren't that many countries left to bully this way tho. Almost everyone bordering or adjacent to Russia is now either part of their sphere of influence (some being slowly lost to China instead of NATO, perhaps) or an actual part of NATO that they won't be able to even sneeze at for the foreseeable future. Ukraine is pretty much the last unaligned country up for grabs of note. Maybe the next adventure circa 2035 will be in the Caucasus, but aside from that I don't see who would need to heed that specific warning. Pretty much all those that can join NATO ended up doing it for that reason as well, it removes uncertainty RE Russian freakouts based on their semi delusional view of history and politics.
    It is all that is left unsaid upon which tragedies are built -Kreia

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  12. #37132
    Void Lord Elegiac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    Moldova and Georgia
    I notice you're having to limit your sample size to two republics who have been victim to Russian bullshit prior to the present invasion of Ukraine (i.e. when the actual state of Russian forces was still largely speculative) rather than acknowledge the basic fact that NATO is now larger post-Ukraine than it would have been had the invasion not happened, lol.
    Quote Originally Posted by Marjane Satrapi
    The world is not divided between East and West. You are American, I am Iranian, we don't know each other, but we talk and understand each other perfectly. The difference between you and your government is much bigger than the difference between you and me. And the difference between me and my government is much bigger than the difference between me and you. And our governments are very much the same.

  13. #37133
    The Unstoppable Force Gaidax's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jastall View Post
    There aren't that many countries left to bully this way tho. Almost everyone bordering or adjacent to Russia is now either part of their sphere of influence (some being slowly lost to China instead of NATO, perhaps) or an actual part of NATO that they won't be able to even sneeze at for the foreseeable future. Ukraine is pretty much the last unaligned country up for grabs of note. Maybe the next adventure circa 2035 will be in the Caucasus, but aside from that I don't see who would need to heed that specific warning. Pretty much all those that can join NATO ended up doing it for that reason as well, it removes uncertainty RE Russian freakouts based on their semi delusional view of history and politics.
    The whole "dance" is that no ex-Soviet republic directly bordering Russia wants to trigger potential invasion.

    There are balancing facts of trying to get closer to the West, while not going far enough to result in a disaster, after all Russia did not shy from destroying a chunk of Ukraine and even annexing parts of it and ex-Soviet republics simply don't want to gamble with such a dangerous and unpredictable enemy.

    There is definitely no love lost for Russia, but nobody wants to test and see how fast NATO can respond (or whether it even will) to Russia rolling in and taking a chunk of their country.

    Hence Georgia and Moldova are not part of NATO, simply because they know that Russia more likely than not might invade, especially given they don't have much to lose anymore, having burned all the bridges with the West.

    It's practically a risk management matrix for those countries. Nobody can truly predict what will happen, but the risk of Ukraine scenario is real and to be avoided. Will Ukraine win in the end and Russia fuck off? Let's say even in case of yes including Crimea - the reconstruction will take decades. Nobody wants to risk that.

  14. #37134
    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    Cool story, bro. Please take your loaded Twitter opinions about my country outside this thread. You have a whole shitthread about it to hallucinate in with your buddies all you like.

    My "bad takes" are a simple reality on the ground. Yes, Moldova and Georgia are not rushing to join NATO, precisely because Russia can do their own version of "People's Republic" right at their doorstep at moment's notice.

    Heck, in case of Georgia - they already had this episode. So yes, the "nooks" are not the real problem here - Russia potentially pulling out another Ukraine in ex-Soviet republics actually is.

    You can keep getting triggered over that fact all you like, it does not change it.
    Jackass, Russia isn't even "pulling a Ukraine" in Ukraine when, according to them and their cheerleaders here they were supposed to be able to just steamroll into Kyiv and end their war at any moment for years now during this three day operation. And now that they've poured a good portion of their military might and resources into their ridiculous war with Ukraine and still can't seal the deal they are in fucking no position to "pull a Ukraine" anywhere else for the foreseeable future.

    Are you so frustrated with not being able to defend your country's ongoing genocide in Palestine that you decided to make yourself look like a fool in other threads instead?

  15. #37135
    The Unstoppable Force Gaidax's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benggaul View Post
    Jackass, Russia isn't even "pulling a Ukraine" in Ukraine when, according to them and their cheerleaders here they were supposed to be able to just steamroll into Kyiv and end their war at any moment for years now during this three day operation. And now that they've poured a good portion of their military might and resources into their ridiculous war with Ukraine and still can't seal the deal they are in fucking no position to "pull a Ukraine" anywhere else for the foreseeable future.

    Are you so frustrated with not being able to defend your country's ongoing genocide in Palestine that you decided to make yourself look like a fool in other threads instead?
    First of all, relax.

    Secondly, Russia unleashed uncountable death and destruction upon Ukraine. When others bordering Russia look on this - they aren't worried about whether their country will be taken over or not, but are worried about the prospect of the same destruction hitting them.

    I'm not sure why this concept is so hard to understand. Nobody wants a war in their country, especially not against a behemoth like Russia, because there are no "good" outcomes for it.

    That is why I specifically mentioned a "best case scenario" for Ukraine. Even if everything works out, the destruction, the lost generation and the pain from it all will remain for decades.

    You can rage against this point all you like, but that is what government members in Moldova and Georgia think about, when they manage this very real risk. Especially, given Transnistria and South Ossetia being a thing. They are practically already in a precondition state.

  16. #37136
    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    First of all, relax.

    Secondly, Russia unleashed uncountable death and destruction upon Ukraine. When others bordering Russia look on this - they aren't worried about whether their country will be taken over or not, but are worried about the prospect of the same destruction hitting them.

    I'm not sure why this concept is so hard to understand. Nobody wants a war in their country, especially not against a behemoth like Russia, because there are no "good" outcomes for it.

    That is why I specifically mentioned a "best case scenario" for Ukraine. Even if everything works out, the destruction, the lost generation and the pain from it all will remain for decades.

    You can rage against this point all you like, but that is what government members in Moldova and Georgia think about, when they manage this very real risk. Especially, given Transnistria and South Ossetia being a thing. They are practically already in a precondition state.
    Oh I'm perfectly capable of remaining relaxed while reminding you you're an idiot.

    And again, my point is that Russia is in no fucking position to do the same thing to other countries and won't be for a long, long time after draining a huge portion of their military resources in Ukraine. Sure, there's been a lot of death and destruction in Ukraine--and the bulk of that death and destruction has been to Russian forces and equipment. Can they win due to attrition? Sure, but it's not going to leave them in any shape for another dustup, and it's a pretty safe bet that nobody is more intimidated by the prospect of a Russian invasion after witnessing how fucking inept they've been at every step of the war. If anything it's proving they're better off siding with NATO because even with the trickle of support with castoff armaments Ukraine is getting from the West they've been bleeding Russia to the point of anemia for every meter of land and I don't see that ending anytime soon.

  17. #37137
    Quote Originally Posted by Benggaul View Post
    Jackass, Russia isn't even "pulling a Ukraine" in Ukraine when, according to them and their cheerleaders here they were supposed to be able to just steamroll into Kyiv and end their war at any moment for years now during this three day operation. And now that they've poured a good portion of their military might and resources into their ridiculous war with Ukraine and still can't seal the deal they are in fucking no position to "pull a Ukraine" anywhere else for the foreseeable future.

    Are you so frustrated with not being able to defend your country's ongoing genocide in Palestine that you decided to make yourself look like a fool in other threads instead?
    You do realize that unlike Ukraine those two countries are extremely weak and Russia would actually be able to roll over them, even in its current state. Moldova has an army size of 6,500, and Georgia has an army size of 37,000. Ukraine had an army size of over 200,000 before the war and was far better equipped.

    https://www.globalfirepower.com/coun...try_id=moldova Ranked #144
    https://www.globalfirepower.com/coun...try_id=georgia Ranked #84

    Ukraine for example is ranked #18
    Last edited by Deus Mortis; 2024-02-27 at 02:47 AM.

  18. #37138
    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    The whole "dance" is that no ex-Soviet republic directly bordering Russia wants to trigger potential invasion.

    There are balancing facts of trying to get closer to the West, while not going far enough to result in a disaster, after all Russia did not shy from destroying a chunk of Ukraine and even annexing parts of it and ex-Soviet republics simply don't want to gamble with such a dangerous and unpredictable enemy.

    There is definitely no love lost for Russia, but nobody wants to test and see how fast NATO can respond (or whether it even will) to Russia rolling in and taking a chunk of their country.

    Hence Georgia and Moldova are not part of NATO, simply because they know that Russia more likely than not might invade, especially given they don't have much to lose anymore, having burned all the bridges with the West.

    It's practically a risk management matrix for those countries. Nobody can truly predict what will happen, but the risk of Ukraine scenario is real and to be avoided. Will Ukraine win in the end and Russia fuck off? Let's say even in case of yes including Crimea - the reconstruction will take decades. Nobody wants to risk that.
    The flip side of the realistic argument is that, well, Georgia and Moldova aren't really important either. Well Georgia is kinda a gate to the Caucasus which is important I guess but with all the shenanigans currently going on there I strongly doubt Russia wants to roll over the tanks in the region anytime soon.

    So that leaves Moldova which... yeah. It's Moldova. Russia is helping a segment of a small country stir shit up. Good for them and all that but I doubt their foreign policy strategy rests upon Moldova, or that NATO cares all that much about the place either.

    Ukraine is different due to having a bevy of resources, being a gateway to Russia proper (especially in the minds of those geniuses who actually believe NATO is one excuse away from Barbarrossa'ing them) and most of all being home to Crimea, which is important to Russia's goals due to Sevastopol. But whatever the outcome there I doubt Russia will invade someone else sometime soon. NATO is very, very obviously off-limits and the rest are too small to bother or already aligned with them. What might be interesting is how they react if China starts stealing their satellites in Central Asia. One doubts Russia wants to piss the PRC off, given all the bridges they burned with the West. On the other hand pretending they're a major power is a cornerstone of both their internal and foreign policy. So they can only tolerate so much overstepping.
    It is all that is left unsaid upon which tragedies are built -Kreia

    The internet: where to every action is opposed an unequal overreaction.

  19. #37139
    The Unstoppable Force Gaidax's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Deus Mortis View Post
    You do realize that unlike Ukraine those two countries are extremely weak and Russia would actually be able to roll over them, even in its current state. Moldova has an army size of 6,500, and Georgia has an army size of 37,000. Ukraine had an army size of over 200,000 before the war and was far better equipped.

    https://www.globalfirepower.com/coun...try_id=moldova Ranked #144
    https://www.globalfirepower.com/coun...try_id=georgia Ranked #84

    Ukraine for example is ranked #18
    His problem is that he doesn't realize this, but he sure is fast calling other people idiots, regardless.

    And in case of those said 2 countries they already suffer from Russia-backed scheme of "people's republics".

    Russia does not even need to invade full stop, they can just cause a flare up in an already existing frozen conflict in these two countries and this already would put a stop to any potential NATO move.

    Hence, said 2 states are not even trying and rather manage the complex situation instead of inviting trouble.

    It's the better choice for them, as opposed to playing a Russian roulette, especially given the state Russia in, where it is no longer restrained by pretense of keeping up ties with the West. There won't be any fake smiles and "reset" button pushing this time around in the next decade.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Jastall View Post
    The flip side of the realistic argument is that, well, Georgia and Moldova aren't really important either. Well Georgia is kinda a gate to the Caucasus which is important I guess but with all the shenanigans currently going on there I strongly doubt Russia wants to roll over the tanks in the region anytime soon.

    So that leaves Moldova which... yeah. It's Moldova. Russia is helping a segment of a small country stir shit up. Good for them and all that but I doubt their foreign policy strategy rests upon Moldova, or that NATO cares all that much about the place either.

    Ukraine is different due to having a bevy of resources, being a gateway to Russia proper (especially in the minds of those geniuses who actually believe NATO is one excuse away from Barbarrossa'ing them) and most of all being home to Crimea, which is important to Russia's goals due to Sevastopol. But whatever the outcome there I doubt Russia will invade someone else sometime soon. NATO is very, very obviously off-limits and the rest are too small to bother or already aligned with them. What might be interesting is how they react if China starts stealing their satellites in Central Asia. One doubts Russia wants to piss the PRC off, given all the bridges they burned with the West. On the other hand pretending they're a major power is a cornerstone of both their internal and foreign policy. So they can only tolerate so much overstepping.
    It's mostly about making example of others.

    Russia being Russia and all. Ex-Soviet countries joining NATO was a huge problem for Russia even back in the better times of 90s, where there was an illusion of transition to normalcy.

    If Russia would let such a small fry like Moldova snub them in such a way, the more powerful and/or important ex-Soviet republics bordering Russia in the Asia would become cheekier than Putin can afford.

    And in case of Georgia they already even had a small war going on back in what was it? 2009? That was when Georgia got a little too cheeky for Putin to swallow.

    You can't really sell an image of strongman to the unwashed masses with delusions of grandeur when you have some "province" slapping his face.

    That is even besides Russia's real or imaginary security concerns.
    Last edited by Gaidax; 2024-02-27 at 03:58 AM.

  20. #37140
    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    His problem is that he doesn't realize this, but he sure is fast calling other people idiots, regardless.

    And in case of those said 2 countries they already suffer from Russia-backed scheme of "people's republics".

    Russia does not even need to invade full stop, they can just cause a flare up in an already existing frozen conflict in these two countries and this already would put a stop to any potential NATO move.

    Hence, said 2 states are not even trying and rather manage the complex situation instead of inviting trouble.

    It's the better choice for them, as opposed to playing a Russian roulette, especially given the state Russia in, where it is no longer restrained by pretense of keeping up ties with the West. There won't be any fake smiles and "reset" button pushing this time around in the next decade.

    - - - Updated - - -



    It's mostly about making example of others.

    Russia being Russia and all. Ex-Soviet countries joining NATO was a huge problem for Russia even back in the better times of 90s, where there was an illusion of transition to normalcy.

    If Russia would let such a small fry like Moldova snub them in such a way, the more powerful and/or important ex-Soviet republics bordering Russia in the Asia would become cheekier than Putin can afford.

    And in case of Georgia they already even had a small war going on back in what was it? 2009? That was when Georgia got a little too cheeky for Putin to swallow.

    You can't really sell an image of strongman to the unwashed masses with delusions of grandeur when you have some "province" slapping his face.

    That is even besides Russia's real or imaginary security concerns.
    Bowing to tyranny isn’t really “managing the situation” though… it’s just capitulation, which admittedly is how Russia wants the countries around them to “manage” them.

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