Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Biglog]

There are a few things that are really strange about this.

- The attackers having face coverings on for the pre-attack video, but did not wear any during the actual attack. ISIS claimed they did extensive recon before the attack, and would have known there would be cameras. So covering then and not during the attack makes no sense, especially if an escape was planned.
- Typically, and especially in large terror attacks like this, it's very much a one-way trip. Attackers don't plan escapes. They fight to the death and take out as many as they can to the last bullet. Yet these guys left weapons and full mags at the scene. The didn't leave to go to a different target either. ISIS wouldn't have picked people to do it on top of ideological reasons that didn't consider it a one-way trip because they wouldn't want them captured, interrogated, and to give up intel.
- They didn't even change cars, or clothes, stayed all together, and also (other than 1 guy apparently) didn't fight to the the end when caught by police then either, also being found with weapons full mags in the car.
- And supposedly they were going to try to cross the Ukraine-Russian warfront border? It would be easier to go through the Korean DMZ...
- One suspect answered 'money' when asked why he did it? When was the last time an ISIS member did a terror attack for money?

At a high-level it has the hallmarks of a typical large terror attack, but everything else about this is quite odd and not typical for ISIS at all. That doesn't help answer who could have been behind it if not really them, and maybe it was ISIS and they were just incredibly incompetent about the details. But there are a lot of things about this one that aren't typical at all for a radical Islamic terror attack.

[Jastall]

I don't see any point in Ukraine doing or backing this. They live and die by their good PR with the West and terrorist attacks are not how you get good PR with the West. It doesn't advance any wargoal of theirs, and is easily used by their foe as a rallying cry. Now maybe the Ukrainians had a massive brainfart and indeed ordered this but I rate it as quite unlikely. Blowing up refineries is a far better way for them to harm Russia's civilian sector.

It has a chance of being a false flag, although it's the kind of thing I hate to even suggest without concrete evidence and Putin was just re-elected (such as the election was) so it's not like he needs that much of a boost there I think. Islamic terrorism is the most likely culprit then it seems, but even then the MO seems kind of weird by their standards.

All in all it's a pretty bizarre situation. I can't really make heads or tails of it just now.

[DarkTZeratul]

Islamic terrorism is the most likely culprit then it seems, but even then the MO seems kind of weird by their standards.

Weird though it may be, they did claim credit for it and I haven't really seen any good argument not to believe them.

[Corvus]

Another night of heavy russian terrorist strikes, but this time one of their missiles enter Polish airspace. The Pokes scrambled f16s as a result.

[Odinfrost]

Another night of heavy russian terrorist strikes, but this time one of their missiles enter Polish airspace. The Pokes scrambled f16s as a result.

How the flying fuck can russia miss that bad? Aren't those missiles better for trying to strike down Ukranian forces instead of people on the other side of the country?

Or is Putput hoping for a war against NATO with one of these 'oopsies'?

- - - Updated - - -

It has a chance of being a false flag, although it's the kind of thing I hate to even suggest without concrete evidence and Putin was just re-elected (such as the election was) so it's not like he needs that much of a boost there I think. Islamic terrorism is the most likely culprit then it seems, but even then the MO seems kind of weird by their standards.

I mean, Putput could use the false flag for conscription motivation.
"Look, they're attacking the safety of your homes. Join thd army to stop these nazi terrorists!"
It is a possibility.

[Gabriel]

How the flying fuck can russia miss that bad? Aren't those missiles better for trying to strike down Ukranian forces instead of people on the other side of the country?

Or is Putput hoping for a war against NATO with one of these 'oopsies'?

The answer is incompetence. With Russians the answer is always incompetence.

[Makabreska]

How the flying fuck can russia miss that bad? Aren't those missiles better for trying to strike down Ukranian forces instead of people on the other side of the country?

Or is Putput hoping for a war against NATO with one of these 'oopsies'?

And why would he hope for a war with NATO? His army is occupied and it's incompetence is on full display. All he can do now is huff and puff nukes to be taken any seriously on international stage.

[Odinfrost]

And why would he hope for a war with NATO? His army is occupied and it's incompetence is on full display. All he can do now is huff and puff nukes to be taken any seriously on international stage.

I dunno. Everything from Russia's side is nonsensical and stupid, so him going down while setting the world on fire sounds on brand

[Makabreska]

I dunno. Everything from Russia's side is nonsensical and stupid, so him going down while setting the world on fire sounds on brand

Nah, he is not suicidal. He started the war, because he was fed bullshit intel on how stronk Russia is, how quickly Ukraine will fold and how little West will do. Now he suffered a massive reality check.

[Cynical Asshole]

ISIS: "We did it! We have evidence to prove it!"

Russia: "NO! It was Ukraine! Shut up!"

[Corvus]

Ukraine is claiming to have hit two more landing ships during the missile strikes on Crimea that also hit the communications hq.

[Cynical Asshole]

Ukraine is claiming to have hit two more landing ships during the missile strikes on Crimea that also hit the communications hq.

Meanwhile Russia just hitting apartment blocks, bus stations and malls.

Astonishing how Russia is not labeled a terrorist state, as they're clearly not focusing on military targets but rather on civilian targets and civilian utility infrastructure in the hopes of demoralizing the Ukrainians into surrendering.

[Jastall]

I mean, Putput could use the false flag for conscription motivation.
"Look, they're attacking the safety of your homes. Join thd army to stop these nazi terrorists!"
It is a possibility.

T'is indeed. But I don't think he needed precisely that to push for mobilization. So before evidence surfaces I'm only slightly less skeptical about the false flag option as I am about the Ukraine option. Some manner of Islamist terrorism seems the most likely. As to which one, who knows, whatever else one can say about them, Russia hasn't exactly made friends with Islamists the world over. Maybe it's ISIS, or one of the groups they sent Wagner to fight in Africa, or Chechens, the list is pretty long sadly.

[Wilian]

Turns out people do not know Russian (but hey, certain someone here said it's not important in context to this war ) so the parroting of claims happen... They were nabbed at ~383rd km of the M3 road more widely known as Kiev road (hint hint), near пос. Теплое (Карачевский район), instead of the supposed claim of BLR border at пос. Теплый (Суражский район, road A240) . Google those, see where they are. Add the Telegram hype to get the "news" out faster (clicks sell, duh) and confusion.mistakes are just logical.

I guess you "well educated persons in regards to this war" haven't even seen yet the wonders of naming in Ukraine/Russia, where there literally can be two places with the same name 2km from each other, not to mention in any wider area with similar names like our example.

Oh well, not like in the current political situation there can possibly be clear look at things, by any side. I would still mostly bet on the usual beardies of a certain sky daddy affiliation as the guilty party.
Would not even be surprising if they were lied anyway about their possible exfiltration location, lol, by whoever organized this.

Except Belarussian officials accidentally told they helped to capture them near their borders. So fuck you and your genocide supporting propaganda.

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Peaceful Russia invades NATO airspace again. A missile launched at civilian targets flew over Polish airspace for 40 seconds last night. I am of opinion that if that happens the launch platform is legal military target to be obliterated by NATO and this should be communicated to Russia.

Ofc it won't be communicated because we the west collectively like to set up red lines on ourselves and on our own security.

[ringpriest]

T'is indeed. But I don't think he needed precisely that to push for mobilization. So before evidence surfaces I'm only slightly less skeptical about the false flag option as I am about the Ukraine option. Some manner of Islamist terrorism seems the most likely. As to which one, who knows, whatever else one can say about them, Russia hasn't exactly made friends with Islamists the world over. Maybe it's ISIS, or one of the groups they sent Wagner to fight in Africa, or Chechens, the list is pretty long sadly.

While this does appear to be the Islamic State, when it comes to just how far Putin will go for a false flag attack, it is worth remembering the 1999 apartment bombings. It gets muddled by a quarter-century of disinformation, but the basic narrative is damning.

-Russia loses the First Chechen War
-New President Putin needed both a popularity boost and an excuse to start the Second Chechen War (which he would go on to win)
-Four apartment bombings killed hundreds and were blamed on Chechen terrorists
-Russian police found what appears to be a fertilizer bomb in an apartment and tracked down the men who planted it
-The FSB confiscated everything, admitted the men who planted the bomb were working for the FSB, and claimed it was all a security exercise
-bombings stopped and the war started

[Jastall]

While this does appear to be the Islamic State, when it comes to just how far Putin will go for a false flag attack, it is worth remembering the 1999 apartment bombings. It gets muddled by a quarter-century of disinformation, but the basic narrative is damning.

-Russia loses the First Chechen War
-New President Putin needed both a popularity boost and an excuse to start the Second Chechen War (which he would go on to win)
-Four apartment bombings killed hundreds and were blamed on Chechen terrorists
-Russian police found what appears to be a fertilizer bomb in an apartment and tracked down the men who planted it
-The FSB confiscated everything, admitted the men who planted the bomb were working for the FSB, and claimed it was all a security exercise
-bombings stopped and the war started

Putin isn't a new President. His show of force is already ongoing, such as it is. His propaganda is already working overtime to paint Ukraine as a bunch of degenerate Nazis. I doubt he needs this to justify further mobilization. He'll use it of course, let no crisis go to waste and all that. But before something more concrete comes up I hesitate to just say the FSB or someone else did it.

Of course, Russia being what it is knowing the truth is almost impossible from where we stand.

[Jessicka]

Putin isn't a new President. His show of force is already ongoing, such as it is. His propaganda is already working overtime to paint Ukraine as a bunch of degenerate Nazis. I doubt he needs this to justify further mobilization. He'll use it of course, let no crisis go to waste and all that. But before something more concrete comes up I hesitate to just say the FSB or someone else did it.

Of course, Russia being what it is knowing the truth is almost impossible from where we stand.

All this assumes Russia has anything more to escalate with, and if they did, why didn’t they just fucking use it to win already?

[Gabriel]

Putin isn't a new President. His show of force is already ongoing, such as it is. His propaganda is already working overtime to paint Ukraine as a bunch of degenerate Nazis. I doubt he needs this to justify further mobilization. He'll use it of course, let no crisis go to waste and all that. But before something more concrete comes up I hesitate to just say the FSB or someone else did it.

Of course, Russia being what it is knowing the truth is almost impossible from where we stand.

My sweet summer child. There never was easier thing to do.

Just always assume the opposite of what ever the Russian government says to be the truth.

[Saradain]

ISIS posts proof, vatniks and waffniks deny it, call others conspiracy theorists. Like a broken record.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-...ost_type=share

One of Russia's major channels, NTV, has broadcast a fake video using AI-generated audio of a top Ukrainian security official in an attempt to blame Ukraine for last night's attack.

In the video, which has also been widely shared online, Ukraine's top security official Oleksiy Danilov appears to say: "It is fun in Moscow today. I think it's a lot of fun. I would like to believe that we will arrange such fun for them more often."

However, BBC Verify has established that the video is a composite of two interviews published in the last week. The voice of Danilov was likely generated using AI technology, according to an expert.

The two interviews used to create the fake video can be accessed on YouTube, one - dated 19 March - features Danilov and the other - dated 16 March - Ukraine's military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov.

The presenters interviewing Budanov can be seen in the fake NTV video, wearing the exact same clothes with identical backgrounds behind them.

The quote by Danilov which appears in the NTV video cannot be heard in the original interview from 16 March, making it likely that the audio is AI-generated.

Sam Gregory, an expert on AI-generated content, has told BBC Verify that the video aired by NTV was likely a "deepfake" and Danilov's voice in it appeared to be a "voice clone deepfake".

Waffles, why does Russia need to make deepfakes if they have facts that are not up for a debate?

[Xyonai]

I feel like if Russia keeps trying to shift the blame so concertedly and so publicly, ISIS is just gonna try to pull another stunt like this to make a point.