Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Edge-]

Almost looks like a Cessna.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/s/WvTQZErAgG

Apparently it is. I was reading about it this morning, they're basically turning Cessna's into remote-operated kamikaze drones. Seems like much more overall control vs. the cheap versions Iran is selling Russia, and it's incredibly cheap. $90K for the plane, and the retrofit for remote controls and explosive ordinance isn't apparently super expensive either. It's cheaper to make one of these than a bunch of the AA missiles and shit they fire off by the dozens.

Per the article (I'm trying to find it but it was in my newsfeed and I was very tired lol) it could be a way for them to strike strategic targets fairly deep within Russia.

Almost surprised they didn't come up with this sooner, but modern warfare sure is ever-changing.

[Saradain]

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...-march-31-2024

Ukrainian forces appear to have repelled a Russian battalion-sized mechanized assault near Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, on March 30 — the first battalion-sized mechanized assault since Russian forces began the campaign to seize Avdiivka in late October 2023. A Ukrainian serviceman reported on March 31 that Russian forces, including elements of the Russian 6th Tank Regiment (90th Tank Division, Central Military District [CMD]), committed 36 tanks and 12 BMP infantry fighting vehicles (IFV) to a large-mechanized assault near Tonenke on March 30.[20] Geolocated imagery published on March 31 shows a large number of destroyed and damaged Russian armored vehicles and tanks along a road northwest of Tonenke (west of Avdiivka).[21] The Ukrainian serviceman stated that Ukrainian forces destroyed 12 Russian tanks and eight IFVs during the assault and noted that the frontal assault failed to breakthrough the Ukrainian line. This appears to be the first report of any elements of the 90th Tank Division participating in assaults following the Russian seizure of Avdiivka and ISW previously assessed that elements of the 90th Tank Division, alongside other Russian units and formations, likely represent a sizeable uncommitted operational reserve that the Russian military command can commit to continue and intensify efforts to push west of Avdiivka.[22] The elements of the 6th Tank Regiment appear to have failed in their March 30 attack near Tonenke, however, suggesting that elements of Russia’s uncommitted operational reserve near Avdiivka may be too degraded or otherwise unable to lead further Russian advances westward in the short term.

The scale of the Russian mechanized assault on March 30 is significant. Russian forces have not conducted a mechanized assault this large since the beginning of the Russian localized offensive effort to seize Avdiivka in late October 2023, when Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed almost 50 Russian tanks and over 100 armored vehicles on October 19-20, 2023.[23] Ukraine’s ability to defend against the March 30 assault, particularly near Avdiivka where Ukrainian forces have been forced to quickly withdraw to new, defensive positions following the loss of the settlement, is a positive indicator for Ukraine’s ability to defend against future large-scale Russian assaults and the expected summer 2024 Russian offensive operation. Ukrainian officials, justifiably so, continue to warn about Ukraine’s ability to defend against the expected summer Russian offensive effort in the face of ammunition shortages, manpower limitations, and delayed Western assistance.[24] Ukrainian forces may have had to expend a significant amount of material to defend against the Russian assault near Tonenke, highlighting Russia’s ability to conduct assaults that force Ukraine to expend outsized portions of its already limited material and manpower reserves to defend against.[25] Ukraine’s demonstrated ability to skillfully defend against a large-scale Russian assault in a particularly critical part of the front despite Ukraine’s challenges suggests that Ukrainian forces can achieve significant battlefield effects if they are properly equipped.

I'm surprised no one noticed this while I was fiddling around abroad near Suwalki. Russia launched the so far biggest tank assault near Avdiivka. And they catastrophically failed as Ukraine destroyed a third of the attacking force.

https://twitter.com/OSINTua/status/1774387800978100329

30.03.24 Avdiivka area, village Tonenke. Remember this date and area.

RUAF used:

- 36 tanks
- 12 BMPs

It’s the biggest amount of armour that was used in one charge since the beginning of the war.

12 tanks and 8 BMPs were taken out. Pure madness.

Also in other news, Ukraine says they will destroy the Kerch bridge by summer 2024.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...a-drone-attack

The orcs hopefully have started their swimming lessons if they succeed, and any orcish settlers better have their old homes intact in Russia proper.

[Edge-]

Damn, hopefully Ukraine didn't take too many losses in defending against the assault because those seem like some very impressive results on their part.

[Deus Mortis]

Damn, hopefully Ukraine didn't take too many losses in defending against the assault because those seem like some very impressive results on their part.

From what I can see it does not look like they would of, I believe the two links are footage of the attack:
Just in case NSFW warning as tanks exploding does mean people are dying
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...zed_column_is/
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota..._by_ukrainian/

[postman1782]

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/...4ig5t1d7q8nj0v

The Only U.S. Lawmaker Born in Ukraine Is Now Skeptical of More Aid

Who cares what the Russian says

[zorkuus]

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/...4ig5t1d7q8nj0v

The Only U.S. Lawmaker Born in Ukraine Is Now Skeptical of More Aid

The "neverending wars" will stop when ruZZia is crushed and destroyed as it is. After that they will be a failed pariah state for the next 50 years. We'll see if they'll learn to live like human beings during that time.

[Specialka]

The "neverending wars" will stop when ruZZia is crushed and destroyed as it is. After that they will be a failed pariah state for the next 50 years. We'll see if they'll learn to live like human beings during that time.

Something, something 1919/ treaty of Versailles.

[Corvus]

Seems Ukraine struck airfields in russia again. Possibly 3 airfields involving up to 50 or 60 drones.

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Ukrainian sources are claiming 6 planes destroyed and 8 more damaged at one of the airfields. Will have to wait for more confirmation.

[Saradain]

Something, something 1919/ treaty of Versailles.

The treaty required Germany to disarm, make territorial concessions, extradite alleged war criminals, agree to Kaiser Wilhelm being put on trial, recognise the independence of states whose territory had previously been part of the German Empire, and pay reparations to the Entente powers. The most critical and controversial provision in the treaty was: "The Allied and Associated Governments affirm and Germany accepts the responsibility of Germany and her allies for causing all the loss and damage to which the Allied and Associated Governments and their nationals have been subjected as a consequence of the war imposed upon them by the aggression of Germany and her allies."

Sounds like a plan. Or are you scaremongering that Putin will rise again and start a World War II: Electric Boogaloo after?

Can't possibly punish Russia for their crimes or else they'll do worse! Like what? Target civilians? Kidnapping kids? Start purging minorities??

[Iphie]

Sounds like a plan. Or are you scaremongering that Putin will rise again and start a World War II: Electric Boogaloo after?

Can't possibly punish Russia for their crimes or else they'll do worse! Like what? Target civilians? Kidnapping kids? Start purging minorities??

Look, I want to see russia punished as well, but there is some merit to not going down the Versailles route. But I don't really know what else to do.

[Specialka]

Sounds like a plan. Or are you scaremongering that Putin will rise again and start a World War II: Electric Boogaloo after?

Can't possibly punish Russia for their crimes or else they'll do worse! Like what? Target civilians? Kidnapping kids? Start purging minorities??

Some people can't really learn from History.

[Saradain]

Look, I want to see russia punished as well, but there is some merit to not going down the Versailles route. But I don't really know what else to do.

What's wrong with reparations and losing areas they forcibly invaded and annexed? If regions like Tatarstan want to be free again, I don't see a problem!

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Some people can't really learn from History.

Yeah, russians seem to have forgotten the lessons of world war, being a Nazi state isn't gonna pay out. What comes to you, is your shilling for peace at any cost, even if it consigns Ukraine to destitution. And leaves Russia entirely fine to continue their invasions later.

[Specialka]

What's wrong with reparations and losing areas they forcibly invaded and annexed? If regions like Tatarstan want to be free again, I don't see a problem!

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Yeah, russians seem to have forgotten the lessons of world war, being a Nazi state isn't gonna pay out. What comes to you, is your shilling for peace at any cost, even if it consigns Ukraine to destitution. And leaves Russia entirely fine to continue their invasions later.

I guess you know more than me what I want. Keep up the good work !

[Saradain]

I guess you know more than me what I want. Keep up the good work !

Alright, if I can apologize my hostility and quick conclusion that I arrived to after you seemingly (to me) implied Treaty of Versailles would cause Russia to start a Nazi Germany campaign (as if they didn't already act like one).

Can you describe me instead what would be your ideal end-of-war scenario treaty? What areas should be ceded, returned and how we could ensure Russia is not going to pull a conquest again? What reparations?

[Specialka]

Alright, if I can apologize my hostility and quick conclusion that I arrived to after you seemingly (to me) implied Treaty of Versailles would cause Russia to start a Nazi Germany campaign (as if they didn't already act like one).

Can you describe me instead what would be your ideal end-of-war scenario treaty? What areas should be ceded, returned and how we could ensure Russia is not going to pull a conquest again? What reparations?

My ideal would obviously be seeing Russian defeated and going back the pre-2014 borders for Ukraine, with obviously reparations, being banned from UN security council, etc... But that is an utopia.

If we are going for the realistic approach, asking for reparations means that Russia is defeated which is unfortunately unlikely at this point. By defeated, I mean has to pull back to its 2014 borders. The state of this war is currently a defeat and a humiliation for Russia. They presented themselves as a super-power to stumbled against a third world, corruption riddled country. So the fighting will continue until one side is bored out by it and go for negociations.

[Saradain]

I would also remind everyone of this gem:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia...endship_Treaty

The Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation, and Partnership between Ukraine and the Russian Federation was an agreement between Ukraine and Russia, signed in 1997, which fixed the principle of strategic partnership, the recognition of the inviolability of existing borders, and respect for territorial integrity and mutual commitment not to use its territory to harm the security of each other. The treaty prevents Ukraine and Russia from invading one another's country respectively, and declaring war.

Of course, this treaty also made Ukraine yield the Soviet nuclear armaments they possessed. And this treaty was broken by Russia in 2014. One could argue Russia breaking the treaty the first time nullifies it so their 2022 invasion was not breaching that specific treaty. But it is a perfect example how convenient the terms were for Russia to invade in 2014 to begin with.

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My ideal would obviously be seeing Russian defeated and going back the pre-2014 borders for Ukraine, with obviously reparations, being banned from UN security council, etc... But that is an utopia.

If we are going for the realistic approach, asking for reparations means that Russia is defeated which is unfortunately unlikely at this point. By defeated, I mean has to pull back to its 2014 borders. The state of this war is currently a defeat and a humiliation for Russia. They presented themselves as a super-power to stumbled against a third world, corruption riddled country. So the fighting will continue until one side is bored out by it and go for negociations.

Very well. So essentially the recognized 1991 borders which is what I can agree on. But I do not agree that it is an utopia, at least for the borders part. Enough aid to Ukraine and Russia is simply forced to retreat to said borders. Any nuclear scaremongering when Ukraine would simply return what is theirs is pointless. Fault and blame would be solely Russia's own.

Reparations yes, I believe Russia is stupid and proud enough that they'll refuse to pay anything, even if the "reward" for doing so would allow them back to play with the adults. They simply are too far gone in "Russia stronk" mentality. And forcibly trying to extract any further reparations than the confiscated yahcts etc would be a folly.

[Specialka]

I would also remind everyone of this gem:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia...endship_Treaty



Of course, this treaty also made Ukraine yield the Soviet nuclear armaments they possessed. And this treaty was broken by Russia in 2014. One could argue Russia breaking the treaty the first time nullifies it so their 2022 invasion was not breaching that specific treaty. But it is a perfect example how convenient the terms were for Russia to invade in 2014 to begin with.

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Very well. So essentially the recognized 1991 borders which is what I can agree on. But I do not agree that it is an utopia, at least for the borders part. Enough aid to Ukraine and Russia is simply forced to retreat to said borders. Any nuclear scaremongering when Ukraine would simply return what is theirs is pointless. Fault and blame would be solely Russia's own.

Reparations yes, I believe Russia is stupid and proud enough that they'll refuse to pay anything, even if the "reward" for doing so would allow them back to play with the adults. They simply are too far gone in "Russia stronk" mentality. And forcibly trying to extract any further reparations than the confiscated yahcts etc would be a folly.

In my opinion, for Ukraine to force Russia to pull back to its borders means that western countries would need to send boots on the group aka combat forces (as we already have people there) which is unlikely now. Maybe, in the future, but nothing guaranteed. And as far as I can see it, I think Ukraine will go for negociations before Russia does, as it has lower people to send to the meat grinder and less equipment to lose as well (even though Russia still loses its far faster).

[Wilian]

Look, I want to see russia punished as well, but there is some merit to not going down the Versailles route. But I don't really know what else to do.

Versailles is notoriously blamed for WW2 but its short sighted view on history and a wee bit inaccurate. Weimar Republic was well on route to recovery, economy looked very good in late 20s and Nazis lost election handily. It wasn't until 30s when world economy collapsed, causing Weimar Republic to buckle that was true culprit in rise of nazis.

[Saradain]

In my opinion, for Ukraine to force Russia to pull back to its borders means that western countries would need to send boots on the group aka combat forces (as we already have people there) which is unlikely now. Maybe, in the future, but nothing guaranteed. And as far as I can see it, I think Ukraine will go for negociations before Russia does, as it has lower people to send to the meat grinder and less equipment to lose as well (even though Russia still loses its far faster).

We shall see how US will continue struggling with the pro-Putin elements that has delayed their part of the aid packages. European nations however have pledged and found some (talking about hundreds of thousands) artillery shells and other nice toys recently. And Ukraine is really determined to destroy that bridge by this summer, and should they succeed, the land route to Crimea is gone for Russia. We shall see.

Pretty sure both the West and Russia are sure that the war will take several more years, so no side is thinking either will suddenly crumble any time soon.

[Iphie]

We shall see how US will continue struggling with the pro-Putin elements that has delayed their part of the aid packages. European nations however have pledged and found some (talking about hundreds of thousands) artillery shells and other nice toys recently. And Ukraine is really determined to destroy that bridge by this summer, and should they succeed, the land route to Crimea is gone for Russia. We shall see.

Pretty sure both the West and Russia are sure that the war will take several more years, so no side is thinking either will suddenly crumble any time soon.

*Some*...my sweet summer child 2.5 million is a *bit* more than some.

Also russia is building a railroad to Crimea so that needs to be destroyed as well.