Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Gaidax]

Already have eternal ire towards certain european leaders for fucking it up so badly and imagining one can co-exist with Putin. I was in whole different life situation back in 2014 so I can't remember everything about Crimean invasion but that certainly translated into the lack of reaction from the civilized world. If the worst happens to Ukraine, be it utter annexation & destruction of sovereignty or "just" losing the "rebel" eastern land permanently by a peace treaty, I'll sure as hell will be guessing there'll be some internal turmoil in the west. And we deserve it. Caving in to a nazi-like dictator out of fear that is baseless, with superior military forces on our sides...And the endless scaremongering of weapons of mass destruction rendering dickless european leaders inept.

But what can we do but to wait, at least russian trolls and bots spamming one-liner posts is almost a positive sign because they coincidence with positive news. Such as ATACMS hitting targets in Crimea.

The European leaders are in all kinds of bind here, they aren't dumb - they understand the threat, but they are also constrained by the circumstances and, among many other things, the natural desire to kick the can further down the road, until it's not their problem anymore.

This kind of thinking can lead to all kinds of sad outcomes, especially when this thinking is based on Western rationale that does not match the Russian one.

It's like me, before this war - I also was like "no way Russia launches a full-scale invasion and war", and yet here we are. So now you have this similar thinking here "no way Russia attacks Baltic states". This kind of thinking needs to go, or else one morning people may wake up to war they are not prepared for.

[Vonazak]

Then here's hoping we're not stupid enough to elect him again...

I deeply believe that Americans have changed for good after the events of the past years, maybe politically matured a bit. Biden is an awful candidate, but a second mandate of Trump will ruin things for everyone.

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It's so easy to evade bans here, that they might as well not bother.

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It's a race to the bottom both for Russia and Ukraine on that front, but the reality is that Russia still has far more meat to throw into the meatgrinder - it's a simple numbers game. Ukraine is running out of people to send to the front, it's a fact.

Right now, the best-case scenario for Ukraine for the remainder of the year is a stalemate and that is kind of bad, because nobody knows whether US will be footing the bill next time.

IMO, US and Europe really missed the ball on this one. They really should have supplied Ukraine more advanced weaponry faster.

Maybe some miracle happens, and Russia implodes one way or another, but if things go as they are - it's not really a great outlook for the Ukraine.

A stalemate will make the Russians ask to get recognition for the lands they have under occupation since the first war and the gains of the second if they ever get into a signing a peace treaty. It's a bad scenario because recognizes a "Russian victory".

What about Russia invading the Baltic states after that?

It was already shown that the Western powers do not have the will to fight an actual war against Russia.

And Russian support for the war will not collapse unless Putin fells from a balcony and even then you can have Russia asking to get the lands they have been unlawfully occupying for the past decade or so.

[Gaidax]

A stalemate will make the Russians ask to get recognition for the lands they have under occupation since the first war and the gains of the second if they ever get into a signing a peace treaty. It's a bad scenario because recognizes a "Russian victory".

What about Russia invading the Baltic states after that?

It was already shown that the Western powers do not have the will to fight an actual war against Russia.

And Russian support for the war will not collapse unless Putin fells from a balcony and even then you can have Russia asking to get the lands they have been unlawfully occupying for the past decade or so.

You misunderstood what I meant by "best case scenario". The meaning of that is not that things are great if that scenario happens, but that they will be least bad given the circumstances.

The aid that is given, is given so that Ukraine won't outright lose, but that's about it and there should be no illusions about it. Those 60bn will be used to hold the line for this year, but that's about it.

Naturally, just holding the line is not the best outcome for Ukraine or well anyone here.

[alach]

Pretty sure I've posted in the past news articles about how the EU is working on and committing to long term financial and military assistance. If I haven't, they did, like last year, like new ammo factories and whatnot.

Also, get fucked you cheater Russians in the upcoming Olympics. No one believes your lies anymore.

[Jastall]

It's so easy to evade bans here, that they might as well not bother.

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It's a race to the bottom both for Russia and Ukraine on that front, but the reality is that Russia still has far more meat to throw into the meatgrinder - it's a simple numbers game. Ukraine is running out of people to send to the front, it's a fact.

Right now, the best-case scenario for Ukraine for the remainder of the year is a stalemate and that is kind of bad, because nobody knows whether US will be footing the bill next time.

IMO, US and Europe really missed the ball on this one. They really should have supplied Ukraine more advanced weaponry faster.

Maybe some miracle happens, and Russia implodes one way or another, but if things go as they are - it's not really a great outlook for the Ukraine.

Best case scenario for Ukraine is that Putin croaks within the year, and the Russian state apparatus and military are too busy with the inevitable power struggle to run the war effort, allowing them to capitalize and dragging whoever succeeds as head honcho over to the negotiating table so he can take his country's economy out of the gutter.

Worst case scenario is Russia pushes further, Putin is still the picture of health for several years, Trump gets elected with a majority in Congress and pulls support, and Europe gets cold(er) feet after all that. At this point Ukraine will eventually collapse from attrition and be conquered in large part, even if perhaps not in full.

What will likely happen IMO: Biden will clench a super tight win with a red Congress, Putin will still live, support will still come for Ukraine but too timidly. They won't collapse but the slow grind of war will eventually force them to accept Russia taking some of their territory. Remains to be seen what happens to Ukraine as a state afterwards.

[Gaidax]

What will likely happen IMO: Biden will clench a super tight win with a red Congress, Putin will still live, support will still come for Ukraine but too timidly. They won't collapse but the slow grind of war will eventually force them to accept Russia taking some of their territory. Remains to be seen what happens to Ukraine as a state afterwards.

I see this as a likely scenario as well in the end.

I am sure some sort of Minsk 3.0 (or what number it now?) is getting prepped behind the scenes for just that. And then of course it will inevitably collapse after a few years of mutual licking of wounds and preparing for the next round.

[Jastall]

I see this as a likely scenario as well in the end.

I am sure some sort of Minsk 3.0 (or what number it now?) is getting prepped behind the scenes for just that. And then of course it will inevitably collapse after a few years of mutual licking of wounds and preparing for the next round.

Perhaps, but things in the region are kinda unpredictable. Few saw an actual war coming, fewer still thought Ukraine would survive more than a couple weeks. Putin's death could happen at any time and would upend the entire calculus due to the resulting vacuum. Trump victory fucks everything up for everyone but Russia. And a myriad other factors besides.

[DarkTZeratul]

What about Russia invading the Baltic states after that?

It was already shown that the Western powers do not have the will to fight an actual war against Russia.

You've fallen into the same bullshit trap as Lahis of conflating two very different scenarios and acting as though our response to the one is remotely an accurate prediction of our response to the other.

With Ukraine, it's Russia invading a nation that we have no formal treaties with. It's a situation that we're effectively uninvolved in, on the face of it. We're choosing to support Ukraine for a variety of reasons, but because we're broadly uninvolved, we would like to stay that way, so that's effectively as far as our support goes.

With the Baltics, they're a part of a formal defensive alliance in which all member states pledged to aid each other if attacked. We have existing obligations to them. We have bases there. If Russia invades the Baltics, we would automatically be involved from the get-go and it's essentially a certainty we'd retaliate in kind. Not doing so would completely destroy the entire concept of NATO overnight, as well as doing massive damage to our international standing.

[Gaidax]

With the Baltics, they're a part of a formal defensive alliance in which all member states pledged to aid each other if attacked. We have existing obligations to them. We have bases there. If Russia invades the Baltics, we would automatically be involved from the get-go and it's essentially a certainty we'd retaliate in kind. Not doing so would completely destroy the entire concept of NATO overnight, as well as doing massive damage to our international standing.

They can do absolutely same shit they did with Ukraine. Remember how it started.

Spawn a People's Republic or 3 of them. Smuggle in some revolutionaries and add them to the disgruntled population in an area rich with ethnically Russian people, just like they did with Donbass.

And then, you can't use Article 5, because it is an internal matter.

[Jastall]

They can do absolutely same shit they did with Ukraine. Remember how it started.

Spawn a People's Republic or 3 of them. Smuggle in some revolutionaries and add them to the disgruntled population in an area rich with ethnically Russian people, just like they did with Donbass.

And then, you can't use Article 5, because it is an internal matter.

When the tanks roll in it definitely stops being an internal matter for all to see. If NATO doesn't react then and there the alliance all but dissolves on the spot. And no one in NATO wants it to dissolve precisely because it stops shenanigans like that happening to them next time around.

If said revolutionaries take over the country by themselves, sure, that's likely gonna be handwaved, but even then it'll be hard if they shoot NATO soldiers on the way in. But I rather doubt they'll be able to, and NATO response will be expected by everyone once the actual Russian army arrives and shoot up a couple thousand dudes from Poland, France, Germany and what have you. And Russia will expect said response too, which is why I strongly doubt they'll ever try it after the Ukrainian adventure almost went belly up with little external pressure.

[Jessicka]

When the tanks roll in it definitely stops being an internal matter for all to see. If NATO doesn't react then and there the alliance all but dissolves on the spot. And no one in NATO wants it to dissolve precisely because it stops shenanigans like that happening to them next time around.

If said revolutionaries take over the country by themselves, sure, that's likely gonna be handwaved, but even then it'll be hard if they shoot NATO soldiers on the way in. But I rather doubt they'll be able to, and NATO response will be expected by everyone once the actual Russian army arrives and shoot up a couple thousand dudes from Poland, France, Germany and what have you. And Russia will expect said response too, which is why I strongly doubt they'll ever try it after the Ukrainian adventure almost went belly up with little external pressure.

Even without NATO, the EU has the CSDP for exactly the reason of if the US didn’t show up for NATO.

Furthermore, since the invasion Europe has been building and realigning its own forces for this kind of conflict. That countries are now holding on to their stuff rather than passing it on to Ukraine implies they know there’s a real risk they’ll need it. Trump getting in an withdrawing support is a worst case scenario and we know it’s realistic, and the plan will likely follow the Balkan model, starting with a no fly zone and moving fairly quickly to air strikes and if necessary troops on the ground. That’s probably a good couple of years off though, so hopefully this package is enough to chew through enough Russians and equipment and maybe even make some reversals to make Putin reconsider his options before then.

[Gorsameth]

They can do absolutely same shit they did with Ukraine. Remember how it started.

Spawn a People's Republic or 3 of them. Smuggle in some revolutionaries and add them to the disgruntled population in an area rich with ethnically Russian people, just like they did with Donbass.

And then, you can't use Article 5, because it is an internal matter.

No.
It worked in Ukraine (and Georgia and...) because if the country tries to fight the 'revolutionaries' Russia swoops in with their full army to defend the Russian people. With NATO they can't do that. And while NATO itself as an organisation won't intervene in an internal matter there is nothing stopping individual countries from providing support, either in equipment or in direct soldiers.

So an 'uprising' springs up in Estonia, France and the UK send their army to help crush it while the US stands at the Russia border with a big sign saying "fucking around and find out".
It doesn't work

[diller]

I thought Ukraine is winning the war?

Who is saying that?

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What will likely happen IMO: Biden will clench a super tight win with a red Congress, Putin will still live, support will still come for Ukraine but too timidly. They won't collapse but the slow grind of war will eventually force them to accept Russia taking some of their territory. Remains to be seen what happens to Ukraine as a state afterwards.

I kinda feel the same is likely as well, but I think a peace negotiation offer from Russia will probably include that Ukraine can't become a member of NATO, that will be a tough sell.

[Gaidax]

I kinda feel the same is likely as well, but I think a peace negotiation offer from Russia will probably include that Ukraine can't become a member of NATO, that will be a tough sell.

On the contrary, that's probably the easiest part of the upcoming negotiations there is.

[diller]

What about Russia invading the Baltic states after that?

You hadn't thought that through, they are in NATO you would have to be very stupid if you think that NATO wouldn't be involved in that.
I mean there are already NATO troops from other countries stationed there.

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On the contrary, that's probably the easiest part of the upcoming negotiations there is.

I guess we will have to disagree on that.

[Huehuecoyotl]

On the contrary, that's probably the easiest part of the upcoming negotiations there is.

I'd agree. Easy as you like to say "I won't join NATO", get peace, then instantly join NATO. Then if Russia complain about breaking agreements, you point them to the long, long line of agreements they've broken and say "what goes around comes around".

And if they decide that gives them the right to restart hostilities with Ukraine, fair enough. But then they'll be fighting the whole of NATO.

[Elder Millennial]

On the contrary, that's probably the easiest part of the upcoming negotiations there is.

Regarding NATO and Ukraine.

Whatever the outcome will be, any peace agreement Ukraine would ever and I mean ever sign, would include Russia accepting Ukraine's EU and NATO ascension.

What, if anything, will be negotiated will involve whether non-Ukrainian NATO troops can or cannot and in what number be stationed on the territories of Ukraine proper. There you might have clauses like "No NATO troops, especially Americans, stationed in Ukraine during peace time."

The whole "NATO on our borders" Russian talking point is complete bullshit. The Russians don't actually give a fuck. The issue isn't that NATO is a threat, but that they can't threaten nations that are in NATO.

The real question for the negotiations isn't NATO or the EU as again, that's not something the Ukrainians will ever negotiate on, it is what territories can Russia keep.

What Russia claims, it cannot ever realistically occupy. What it hasn't occupied the Ukrainians will never give up.

[Nymrohd]

What Russia claims, it cannot ever realistically occupy. What it hasn't occupied the Ukrainians will never give up.

I don't see why Russia cannot keep occupying Crimea, which it has occupied for a decade now or part of Eastern Ukraine.
And I do think that for Russia Single Market membership was, or at least should have been, a bigger red flag than NATO. A Ukraine that becomes part of the Single Market is a Ukraine completely out of Russian economic influence were all their interests will play second fiddle to those of other EU members.

[NED funded]

Who is saying that?

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I kinda feel the same is likely as well, but I think a peace negotiation offer from Russia will probably include that Ukraine can't become a member of NATO, that will be a tough sell.

Ukraine could have never become a member of NATO. This entire war was pointless on Russia's end except maybe to think it couldve flexed it muscle like it did with Donetsk.

[diller]

Ukraine could have never become a member of NATO.

They could and they will be.