Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Kaleredar]

Don't forget that russia themselves have perpetuated that myth. They promoted themselves as the strong reds. I'm sure the west wouldn't have been as caught up in anti-commie hysteria if Russia didn't constantly threaten and nuke-rattle over the years.

The USSR was a convenient "other" for most of the cold war. So they had to be depicted as being large enough to be a threat to allow money to be funneled into proxy wars and prop up various military industrial complexes, as well as allowing conservatives, particularly of the time, to say "if you aren't for dissolving X, Y and Z social programs, you're a commie" which allowed them very simple ways to repeal regulations and protections in favor of private industry.

With the USSR's collapse, the myth of "Strong Russia" continued, but under the guise of "well hey, they're no longer enemies... now we can say how cool it is that they have to throw a live grenade in their military training and their leader rides horses shirtless and they have big parades with big weapons and stuff. They must be really tough!." Or at least, that's what Russia thought.


However, what Russia's "propaganda war" failed to properly account for is that 80 years of depicting the Russians as conniving, duplicitous, and greedy villains of the western world wasn't going to simply be undone by a few years of a loud orange fatman on the take saying otherwise, at least not with the majority of Americans. Nor would Europe forget so quickly the specter of the USSR that loomed on their doorstep for decades. And it certainly wasn't going to be further undone by Russia acting in a conniving, duplicitous, and greedy way.

[Gaidax]

The USSR was a convenient "other" for most of the cold war. So they had to be depicted as being large enough to be a threat to allow money to be funneled into proxy wars and prop up various military industrial complexes, as well as allowing conservatives, particularly of the time, to say "if you aren't for dissolving X, Y and Z social programs, you're a commie" which allowed them very simple ways to repeal regulations and protections in favor of private industry.

USSR wasn't just a convenient "other". USSR effectively controlled a good half of Europe for a good half of the last century.

It wasn't just some ooga-booga scare job, when dealing with that kind of opponent, you can't just sit there and assume best case scenario - so US and Western Europe were rightfully preparing for the worst and it paid off, by the way.

What happened with Ukraine should be a wake-up call, because Russia has obviously gone hard taking the side of China, Iran, North Korea and so on. NATO countries and the West can't just sit there and assume things will somehow resolve themselves and it is going to get worse before it gets better, as Taiwan is next and the West needs to be ready to fight on 2-3 fronts, even if hopefully not directly. And this does mean, that the military complex everyone hates so much will need to get propped up, because in the end tanks, planes, ships, firearms and ammunition don't just make themselves.

[Kaleredar]

USSR wasn't just a convenient "other". USSR effectively controlled a good half of Europe for a good half of the last century.

It wasn't just some ooga-booga scare job, when dealing with that kind of opponent, you can't just sit there and assume best case scenario - so US and Western Europe were rightfully preparing for the worst and it paid off, by the way.

What happened with Ukraine should be a wake-up call, because Russia has obviously gone hard taking the side of China, Iran, North Korea and so on. NATO countries and the West can't just sit there and assume things will somehow resolve themselves and it is going to get worse before it gets better, as Taiwan is next and the West needs to be ready to fight on 2-3 fronts, even if hopefully not directly. And this does mean, that the military complex everyone hates so much will need to get propped up, because in the end tanks, planes, ships, firearms and ammunition don't just make themselves.

I'm not saying that the USSR and Russia's threat isn't real.

[Kralljin]

The French lose 1 war (technically they didn't but that's moot) and everyone spends the next 80 years pretending like half the world didn't spend the last 800 years either at war with the French, being conquered by the French or being terrified about having to go to war with the French.

To be fair, this arguably partially fueled by Napoleon as well and the parallels it had with Hitler.
Both effectively swooped over continental Europe, failed to bring the British to the negotiating table, then invaded Russia in return, which then led to their respective downfall.

Simplified of course but in the same vein, the French also had an unfortunate incident with the Prussians / Germans in 70 years earlier.

[NED funded]

The notion that great and imperative change may be brought about by Russia’s withdrawal is probably why those in leadership in Russia are fighting so hard to avoid precisely that.


They rule over a dictatorship, there’s literally nowhere for them to go. Only the people of Russia can benefit from such a change, and you can see form Russia’s meatwave tactics how much the kremlin cares about them.

The oligarchs have a way out. Its more Putin and his closest advisors that have nowhere else to go. They cannot lose the war

[Xyonai]

The oligarchs have a way out. Its more Putin and his closest advisors that have nowhere else to go. They cannot lose the war

And since Ukraine - rightly - won't accept any ceasefire/peace agreements that don't end with Russia fucking off from their territory; Putin's stuck with this mess untill he finds a way to break Ukraine's will to fight or just fuckin' pisses off and dies.

[Gaidax]

And since Ukraine - rightly - won't accept any ceasefire/peace agreements that don't end with Russia fucking off from their territory; Putin's stuck with this mess untill he finds a way to break Ukraine's will to fight or just fuckin' pisses off and dies.

I think this is one flowery la-la-land take.

Reality - even if Putin goes belly up tomorrow, nothing much will change, because his likely successors are all part of the same system and the same circle. And on top of that, the West will sell out Ukraine when the time is right and force them to sign an agreement with Russia on terms that are quite a distance from the quoted desires.

[Iphie]

I think this is one flowery la-la-land take.

Reality - even if Putin goes belly up tomorrow, nothing much will change, because his likely successors are all part of the same system and the same circle. And on top of that, the West will sell out Ukraine when the time is right and force them to sign an agreement with Russia on terms that are quite a distance from the quoted desires.

No, I think he's right in so far that poo-tin going belly up will in all likelihood usher in a period of russian retreats since there will be a powerstruggle. They may be part of the same circle but they still need to establish control.

[Xyonai]

I think this is one flowery la-la-land take.

Reality - even if Putin goes belly up tomorrow, nothing much will change, because his likely successors are all part of the same system and the same circle. And on top of that, the West will sell out Ukraine when the time is right and force them to sign an agreement with Russia on terms that are quite a distance from the quoted desires.

I mean I did specify Putin being stuck with this mess until he croaks.

While the US might be more wishy washy, considering we have an entire political party who'd probably happily sell Alaska back to Russia if Putin asked nice enough, Europe - especially Eastern Europe - will probably try and keep helping Ukraine as long as they can, considering how little they want to be Russia's next victim.

One could argue the West just lets Russia keep bloodying itself until it gets -right- up to the breaking point, then swoops in to negotiate peace talks before Russia does something rash, but I still don't think Ukraine will take a deal that doesn't put them in a more favorable position at the very least. Russia's proven an untrustworthy neighbor, they've got no reason to expect them to uphold jack shit even if they leave this war incapable of launching another one for another decade or so.

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No, I think he's right in so far that poo-tin going belly up will in all likelihood usher in a period of russian retreats since there will be a powerstruggle. They may be part of the same circle but they still need to establish control.

Gaidax is right, though, that it's likely anyone in line to be the next Tsar is probably also on the 'Fuck Ukraine, that land belongs to glorious Mother Russia!' kool-aid, and the ensuing power struggle will be about whichever kleptocrat can prove they'll turn their neighbor into a parking lot the fastest and most brutally Russian way possible.

It's just a matter of if such a struggle will be bloodless, and if whoever comes out on top will command enough respect to keep the offensive going, or pull a Hitler and bumblefuck their army into even more of a mess than it already is.

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Also not to mention what a sudden power vacuum might entail for their ambitions in Africa.

[Gaidax]

Gaidax is right, though, that it's likely anyone in line to be the next Tsar is probably also on the 'Fuck Ukraine, that land belongs to glorious Mother Russia!' kool-aid, and the ensuing power struggle will be about whichever kleptocrat can prove they'll turn their neighbor into a parking lot the fastest and most brutally Russian way possible.

That's just how Russia works for hundreds of years, just the label is different here and there. I have 0 expectations of Russia, Putin or not.

[Iphie]

That's just how Russia works for hundreds of years, just the label is different here and there. I have 0 expectations of Russia, Putin or not.

I disagree on your pessimism, once in a while someone does try to improve russia. The problem is that they usually end up on the wrong side of a window or accidentally swallowing a lot of polonium...

[Elder Millennial]

I will say this again and again for the umpteenth time.

Whatever will be the final outcome of this war, two things are guaranteed, Ukraine will join NATO first and the EU as soon as possible.

These two things are the non-negotiables for Ukraine. This whole thing is rooted in Ukraine's ambitions to break from the Ruski Mir and look westward to the EU. They have been fighting and dying for this since 2014. After these last 10 years and all the blood, sweat and tears Ukrainians will not give up on a European future and there is no politician or political party that could accept any peace that doesn't include this without getting hung from a lamp post.

And NATO membership is THE ONLY security guarantee that is worth a damn. Peace without it is not a peace, it's just an interlude to the next bloody war with Russia. Ukrainians cannot and will not accept any peace without this guarantee.

What I don't understand is what is the Russian's long-term plan here. As much as "Russia stronk" even the Russians understand now that they misunderstood the Ukrainians. They cannot and will not be able to take the country. Not even if both the US and EU abandons Ukraine. Two and a half years into this conflict and the Russians still haven't articulated an end goal here after their initial objectives proved to be unattainable.

Right now the Russians just seem to be fighting for the sake of fighting and even they have to realize, and I'm sure despite their own delusions the Kremlin and the ruling class has realized this, they cannot fight perpetually. This has to end at some point, if for no other reason just because it's demographically unsustainable.

[Jessicka]

I will say this again and again for the umpteenth time.

Whatever will be the final outcome of this war, two things are guaranteed, Ukraine will join NATO first and the EU as soon as possible.

These two things are the non-negotiables for Ukraine. This whole thing is rooted in Ukraine's ambitions to break from the Ruski Mir and look westward to the EU. They have been fighting and dying for this since 2014. After these last 10 years and all the blood, sweat and tears Ukrainians will not give up on a European future and there is no politician or political party that could accept any peace that doesn't include this without getting hung from a lamp post.

And NATO membership is THE ONLY security guarantee that is worth a damn. Peace without it is not a peace, it's just an interlude to the next bloody war with Russia. Ukrainians cannot and will not accept any peace without this guarantee.

What I don't understand is what is the Russian's long-term plan here. As much as "Russia stronk" even the Russians understand now that they misunderstood the Ukrainians. They cannot and will not be able to take the country. Not even if both the US and EU abandons Ukraine. Two and a half years into this conflict and the Russians still haven't articulated an end goal here after their initial objectives proved to be unattainable.

Right now the Russians just seem to be fighting for the sake of fighting and even they have to realize, and I'm sure despite their own delusions the Kremlin and the ruling class has realized this, they cannot fight perpetually. This has to end at some point, if for no other reason just because it's demographically unsustainable.

I think their goal is still absolute conquest, and they still believe they can still win on the basis that it's demographically less sustainable for Ukraine than it is Russia.

They're gambling though on Trump getting in and US drawing back support, and European forces staying out in that event. Those are pretty big gambles, given increasing Ukraine support in the US and French hints at plans for European troops going in, since Europe knows damn well it can't afford to lose Ukraine.

[Specialka]

I will say this again and again for the umpteenth time.

Whatever will be the final outcome of this war, two things are guaranteed, Ukraine will join NATO first and the EU as soon as possible.

These two things are the non-negotiables for Ukraine. This whole thing is rooted in Ukraine's ambitions to break from the Ruski Mir and look westward to the EU. They have been fighting and dying for this since 2014. After these last 10 years and all the blood, sweat and tears Ukrainians will not give up on a European future and there is no politician or political party that could accept any peace that doesn't include this without getting hung from a lamp post.

And NATO membership is THE ONLY security guarantee that is worth a damn. Peace without it is not a peace, it's just an interlude to the next bloody war with Russia. Ukrainians cannot and will not accept any peace without this guarantee.

What I don't understand is what is the Russian's long-term plan here. As much as "Russia stronk" even the Russians understand now that they misunderstood the Ukrainians. They cannot and will not be able to take the country. Not even if both the US and EU abandons Ukraine. Two and a half years into this conflict and the Russians still haven't articulated an end goal here after their initial objectives proved to be unattainable.

Right now the Russians just seem to be fighting for the sake of fighting and even they have to realize, and I'm sure despite their own delusions the Kremlin and the ruling class has realized this, they cannot fight perpetually. This has to end at some point, if for no other reason just because it's demographically unsustainable.

I am totally for Ukraine joining NATO but totally against it joining EU. We do not need another corrupted country.

[Elder Millennial]

I am totally for Ukraine joining NATO but totally against it joining EU. We do not need another corrupted country.

EU membership almost always curbs corruption.

Really the only country that went the opposite is Hungary. But for every Hungary we have ALL THE OTHER COUNTRIES where corruption has been curbed.

But using "corruption" as some sort of excuse to exclude Ukraine still plays into the stereotypes being spread about it by Russia. It's bullshit.

By the time all this is done, Ukraine will likely be one of the least corrupt countries in Europe primarily BECAUSE society has undergone a significant test that has massively consolidated Ukrainian civil society.

Or...really usually when I hear these "corrupt country" excuses what really hides behind the excuse is xenophobia.

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I think their goal is still absolute conquest, and they still believe they can still win on the basis that it's demographically less sustainable for Ukraine than it is Russia.

They're gambling though on Trump getting in and US drawing back support, and European forces staying out in that event. Those are pretty big gambles, given increasing Ukraine support in the US and French hints at plans for European troops going in, since Europe knows damn well it can't afford to lose Ukraine.

I don't think the Kremlin (and by Kremlin I mean Russian rulling class not just Putin) is delusional enough at this point to think they can rule over Ukraine or install a puppet who could rule over Ukraine.

There is just too much bad blood. The Ukrainians despise Russians to an almost unmeasurable degree. Like "families never talking to each other again" level. And there's plenty of genocide talk evidence that the Russians feel the same to a large degree about Ukrainians.

[Makabreska]

EU membership almost always curbs corruption.

Really the only country that went the opposite is Hungary. But for every Hungary we have ALL THE OTHER COUNTRIES where corruption has been curbed.

But using "corruption" as some sort of excuse to exclude Ukraine still plays into the stereotypes being spread about it by Russia. It's bullshit.

By the time all this is done, Ukraine will likely be one of the least corrupt countries in Europe primarily BECAUSE society has undergone a significant test that has massively consolidated Ukrainian civil society.

Or...really usually when I hear these "corrupt country" excuses what really hides behind the excuse is xenophobia.

It is not a secret that corruption in Ukraine is on high levels, and any EU funds would be at risk of being embezzled. Ukraine doing a sudden 180° on it due to war is a wishful thinking. Society at large may change some, but it is still an oligarchy country where those in power stole as they pleased, and lots of work would have to be put in to improve things.

[Specialka]

EU membership almost always curbs corruption.

Really the only country that went the opposite is Hungary. But for every Hungary we have ALL THE OTHER COUNTRIES where corruption has been curbed.

But using "corruption" as some sort of excuse to exclude Ukraine still plays into the stereotypes being spread about it by Russia. It's bullshit.

By the time all this is done, Ukraine will likely be one of the least corrupt countries in Europe primarily BECAUSE society has undergone a significant test that has massively consolidated Ukrainian civil society.

Or...really usually when I hear these "corrupt country" excuses what really hides behind the excuse is xenophobia.

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I don't think the Kremlin (and by Kremlin I mean Russian rulling class not just Putin) is delusional enough at this point to think they can rule over Ukraine or install a puppet who could rule over Ukraine.

There is just too much bad blood. The Ukrainians despise Russians to an almost unmeasurable degree. Like "families never talking to each other again" level. And there's plenty of genocide talk evidence that the Russians feel the same to a large degree about Ukrainians.

I should have add that we do not need another third world like country.

And corruption will not disappear overnight.

And more country means it will be harder to get decisions voted.

As far as EU is concerned, Ukraine needs EU far more than the reverse, so why should it join EU ?

[Jessicka]

I should have add that we do not need another third world like country.

And corruption will not disappear overnight.

And more country means it will be harder to get decisions voted.

As far as EU is concerned, Ukraine needs EU far more than the reverse, so why should it join EU ?

It’s massive, and the whole point of the EU is strength in numbers.

[Specialka]

It’s massive, and the whole point of the EU is strength in numbers.

Not really as the more we get, the harder it gets to vote decision.

[Iphie]

Not really as the more we get, the harder it gets to vote decision.

Hence why we need to hurry up and unite already.