Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Fantomen]

Russia basically "suffers" from Reverse France Syndrome.

The French lose 1 war (technically they didn't but that's moot) and everyone spends the next 80 years pretending like half the world didn't spend the last 800 years either at war with the French, being conquered by the French or being terrified about having to go to war with the French.

The French army was totally defeated in the Franco-Prussian War of 1870, then the French army was surrounded in a modern Cannae on a bigger scale, its one of the greatest battlefield defeat in history. French was close to collapse in WW1, and the massive French defeat in WW2.

That is 2 titanic defeat, and one (almost) defeat in 3 wars out of 3 agents Prussia/Germany. That diminish your past victories.

To prove my point, do you know how brilliant politician/diplomat and strategist Napoleon III was, and how victorious he was in the Franco-Austrian War of 1859? No because its the same Napoleon III that get totally outplayed 11 year later by Bismark, that was not brilliant but the worlds best politician/diplomat and strategist of that era.

[Iphie]

So...Shoigu lost his job. But got a new one, Patrushevs old one.

https://nypost.com/2024/05/12/world-...-war-slogs-on/

And the new guy on Shoigu's old one is an economist...

[Corvus]

Bit odd, given he is a friend if pootie and a loyal yes man. Guess that is why he is being pushed sideways and largely into retirement rather than out a window.

It could possibly be related to his deputy and crony being arrested for corruption. Given pretty much all of them are corrupt, for one to be arrested for it would indicate some power struggle might be going on.

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The new guy is a complete outsider with no experience of the military and no ties to anyone. He might be there because of concerns about the cost of the war, or to try and clean up things, like Shoigu's predecessor. That didn't work out well. Given all the patronage and corruption under Shoigu, there could be a lot of turmoil as a result, with sackings and replacements. Keep an eye on Gerasimov as well, to see what happens to him...

[Wilian]

Bit odd, given he is a friend if pootie and a loyal yes man. Guess that is why he is being pushed sideways and largely into retirement rather than out a window.

It could possibly be related to his deputy and crony being arrested for corruption. Given pretty much all of them are corrupt, for one to be arrested for it would indicate some power struggle might be going on.

Well the position he just received holds actually more power than Shoigus previous post.

[Iphie]

Gerasimov, Patrushev, Medvedev, there's a few names...

Gerasimov was not seen at the may 9th parade, Patrushev lost his job and has been rumoured to be a little bit too independent lately, re: blowing up Piggy and killing Navalny without permission. So who knows what's happening with him. Medvedev...well he's just a drunk.

Lest we forget, Patrushev is one of the main drivers behind the invasion of Ukraine, and has been known to have ambitions for the throne himself or for his, apparently morose, son. This may very well be Putin using the opportunity to kill off a close threat. (Which may backfire due to loyalty and closeness)

We'll see, I expect a few more surprises and some turmoil.

[diller]

the West will sell out Ukraine when the time is right and force them to sign an agreement with Russia on terms that are quite a distance from the quoted desires.

So you were in the future and saw that!!!!

wow!!!

[Gaidax]

So you were in the future and saw that!!!!

wow!!!

You don't need to be in the future to understand that in the end a settlement will be forced on Ukraine.

[Elder Millennial]

But it is still an oligarchy country where those in power stole as they pleased, and lots of work would have to be put in to improve things.

That describes every single former Eastern bloc country. No exceptions. Including the Baltics. Even to a large degree Germany itself. The transition from state owned command economies to privatized free market economies was absolutely rife with shady deals and most of anyone who made their money and who are now the millionaires and billionaires in those countries have made their wealth through connections, backdoor deals or outright theft.

That doesn't mean that since then those societies haven't stabilized. What curbs corruption is a strong civil society, the proverbial "the state being afraid of its own people" and this war has DEFINITELY been a civil society building exercise for Ukraine.

[Voidism]

Gerasimov, Patrushev, Medvedev, there's a few names...

Gerasimov was not seen at the may 9th parade, Patrushev lost his job and has been rumoured to be a little bit too independent lately, re: blowing up Piggy and killing Navalny without permission. So who knows what's happening with him. Medvedev...well he's just a drunk.

Lest we forget, Patrushev is one of the main drivers behind the invasion of Ukraine, and has been known to have ambitions for the throne himself or for his, apparently morose, son. This may very well be Putin using the opportunity to kill off a close threat. (Which may backfire due to loyalty and closeness)

We'll see, I expect a few more surprises and some turmoil.

I don't think he will kill him off. More like "here you go, retirement" place in the Duma where he is not a threat. His son got a semi-promotion, and could be putin's way of softening it even further for Patty.

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You don't need to be in the future to understand that in the end a settlement will be forced on Ukraine.

Yes, this is pretty obvious. When Russia has been bled enough in Western eyes there will be a shift in priorities. That said, I am not going to make predictions on how well it will go or if Russia is interested even at that point. But there will be mounting pressure, maybe even to the point of effective sanctions on Ukraine that might be not apparent. Ukraine will not get Crimea with active Western help.

After all, we are not in this mainly to help Ukraine but to bleed Russia. Of course, we don't want Ukraine to fall and that is probably a priority but not more than that. I wish more people would realize this so it doesn't come as a shock when it can't be denied. I find the current dances and theater very obvious myself, but apparently some still believe. I mean the whole war was first "planned" as a guerilla war that would make it undesirable for Russia (no Westerner planned for putin to actually go in, but in case he did that was the plan). Hence the shoulder fired stuff the Trump regime started sending.

We can't make the actual ones in charge change directions, if we live under false assumptions.

[Specialka]

That describes every single former Eastern bloc country. No exceptions. Including the Baltics. Even to a large degree Germany itself. The transition from state owned command economies to privatized free market economies was absolutely rife with shady deals and most of anyone who made their money and who are now the millionaires and billionaires in those countries have made their wealth through connections, backdoor deals or outright theft.

That doesn't mean that since then those societies haven't stabilized. What curbs corruption is a strong civil society, the proverbial "the state being afraid of its own people" and this war has DEFINITELY been a civil society building exercise for Ukraine.

Yes, and they can do that work and once they get there, they can send an apply to EU.

[Iphie]

I don't think he will kill him off. More like "here you go, retirement" place in the Duma where he is not a threat. His son got a semi-promotion, and could be putin's way of softening it even further for Patty.

*Kill* as in, take care off, I think you're right about not literally killing.

[Gaidax]

Yes, this is pretty obvious. When Russia has been bled enough in Western eyes there will be a shift in priorities.

I'm mostly thinking the combination of the following factors:

• Upcoming intensifying confrontation in Taiwan.
• Political environment not being kind to more massive support for Ukraine.
• Ukraine running out of troops to field.

Practically, all the sides would like a reprieve to lick the wounds and a few years to prepare for phase 2, even and maybe especially Ukraine.

[diller]

You don't need to be in the future to understand that in the end a settlement will be forced on Ukraine.

Well obviously there will be a settlement at some point, but the terms you claim is just something you hauled out of your ass.

[Gaidax]

Well obviously there will be a settlement at some point, but the terms you claim is just something you hauled out of your ass.

It's a simple reality.

Here's a bit for you - Crimea will stay in Russia's hands no matter what. That already would be an unfavorable settlement for Ukraine and that's like the least unfavorable one.

Want some more? At best, Donbas "republics" would be proclaimed as a self-governing autonomy within Ukraine, and that with the above is the best case for Ukraine in the observable future.

No need for crystal ball to see that being the case, it's a simple fact that Ukraine has no manpower to push Russia out of those territories.

[Mayhem]

It's a simple reality.

Here's a bit for you - Crimea will stay in Russia's hands no matter what. That already would be an unfavorable settlement for Ukraine and that's like the least unfavorable one.

Want some more? At best, Donbas "republics" would be proclaimed as a self-governing autonomy within Ukraine, and that with the above is the best case for Ukraine in the observable future.

No need for crystal ball to see that being the case, it's a simple fact that Ukraine has no manpower to push Russia out of those territories.

Interesting, if we'd take your words from the Israel vs Palestine thread, from Russia's perspective Ukraine should easily pose an existential threat to Russia if it was allowed to remain.

This simple reality makes no sense for any of the parties involved.

If the West was giving up on Ukraine, why would that also mean Russia would stop moving forward? If Russia can't advance any further why would Ukraine accept a humiliating agreement proposed by the West?

[Specialka]

Interesting, if we'd take your words from the Israel vs Palestine thread, from Russia's perspective Ukraine should easily pose an existential threat to Russia if it was allowed to remain.

This simple reality makes no sense for any of the parties involved.

If the West was giving up on Ukraine, why would that also mean Russia would stop moving forward? If Russia can't advance any further why would Ukraine accept a humiliating agreement proposed by the West?

It won't be proposed (at least officially) by the West. It will either be by Russia or Ukraine.

[diller]

It's a simple reality.

It's not though.

[Mayhem]

It won't be proposed (at least officially) by the West. It will either be by Russia or Ukraine.

Uhu and how does that change what I said? Why should either of them agree, also why should either of them just shut up about the West's involvement in this charade?

[Specialka]

Uhu and how does that change what I said? Why should either of them agree, also why should either of them just shut up about the West's involvement in this charade?

Because at one point, one side or both will want the war to stop. I mean why the WW1 ended ? Neither both side was beaten into submission like it was for WW2.

[Mayhem]

Because at one point, one side or both will want the war to stop.

One side already wants the war to stop, that side also doesn't want to lose territory to the invaders, so why would they stop demanding Russia to leave if Russia can't/won't keep up the fight? Makes no sense. Same from Russia's POV if Ukraine isn't able to keep up because the West wants to stop the support for Ukraine why would Russia accept only taking parts if they can have all of it?

I mean why the WW1 ended ? Neither both side was beaten into submission like it was for WW2.

Pretty sure you can google what happened and why WW1 ended, you don't have to guess.