Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Ulmita]

Lol wut. Are you mental? From a purely hardware perspective, and given what we know now of Russia's effective capacity to wage war based on the absolute shit job they have been doing in their 3 year long "3 day special operation" against the Ukraine, the US could straight up bury Russia if they actually went to "war". Like, it wouldn't even be a pissing match, let alone a contest.

We've seen what the Ukraine can do just largely in terms of self defence when provided with a handful of US based precision weapons systems. Thousands of Russian vehicles rendered into scrap. What do you imagine the result would be if it's no longer the Ukrainians and a couple of systems, but the US military and literally as many systems as they can spare, with no restrictions on hitting back? The US has enough precision shit they could likely turn every military installation within 1500 miles of Russia's western border into a pile of rubble within a few weeks. I mean, it's not like Russia has the capability to stop them. They can barely keep the Ukrainians from hitting their shit with bargain store suicide drones.

The USA has so much of a hardware and capability advantage it would be a complete curbstomping. At this point, the only advantage Russia has is just a shitload of bodies to throw into the meatgrinder. Against pretty much any western power, they are completely outclassed in pretty much every regard except brute force manpower to throw away.

You should tell that to the taliban
https://vm.tiktok.com/ZGe4mXnRt/

[Good Hasbara]

You should tell that to the taliban
https://vm.tiktok.com/ZGe4mXnRt/

To be fair, I think Afghan farmers are a significantly more competent fighting force than Russian turnips these days.

[diller]

You should tell that to the taliban
https://vm.tiktok.com/ZGe4mXnRt/

Oh you mean just like Russia did?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet%E2%80%93Afghan_War

[DarkTZeratul]

You should tell that to the taliban
https://vm.tiktok.com/ZGe4mXnRt/

Apples and oranges, my dude. Apples and oranges. The United States wasn't fighting a war against Afghanistan. Or perhaps more accurately, we did, and we won almost immediately, and what happened after that was the United States attempting to occupy Afghanistan without any clear goal or plan of action while constantly dealing with rebels and insurgents who knew how to hide and ambush from within their own country. And then Donald Trump cut a deal with the Taliban to simply let us leave, without including the actual government of Afghanistan in those negotiations.

A war with Russia would be a radically different situation, and the idea that the United States would somehow be outclassed by them is laughably bad.

[SAY HER NAME]

Sometimes I think people forget that the USA completely dominated Iraq or Libya. That would be Russias future if it got too cheeky.

[Corvus]

The first Gulf War would be a far better comparison. At the time the Iraqi army was the 4th largest in the world, with over 1,000,000 men, of which over 600K were in Kuwait. They were experienced from the Iran-Iraq war and were outfitted with Soviet gear, a lot of which is comparable to what russia is using now. The Coalition was expected to take thousands of casualties in the war but the end result was massively lopsided, with accidents and friendly fire as much as threat to Coalition forces as the Iraqi's were.

[Flarelaine]

Did this fly under the radar?

I mean should Hungary maybe leave the Alliance and the EU? They're getting to be more trouble then they're worth.

Eh, his Friday radio talks are for the cult. That said, it is infuriating.

[SAY HER NAME]

Eh, his Friday radio talks are for the cult. That said, it is infuriating.

Eh btw I just noticed you lived in Hungary? What was that with Hungary inviting chinese police officers with helping to keep order? Is it like serious or optics?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/chinese-p...l?guccounter=1

That was wild a move.

[Flarelaine]

Eh btw I just noticed you lived in Hungary? What was that with Hungary inviting chinese police officers with helping to keep order? Is it like serious or optics?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/chinese-p...l?guccounter=1

That was wild a move.

I don't want to delve deep in it as it does not belong in this thread (beyond being another aspect of a NATO member becoming a Trojan horse for Eastern autocrats) but yes, China has kindly offered to assist us with policing ethnic Chinese in Hungary. And the party that can't stop screaming about SOVEREIGNTY! gladly accepted.

[Gabriel]

I don't want to delve deep in it as it does not belong in this thread (beyond being another aspect of a NATO member becoming a Trojan horse for Eastern autocrats) but yes, China has kindly offered to assist us with policing ethnic Chinese in Hungary. And the party that can't stop screaming about SOVEREIGNTY! gladly accepted.

Hah, classic.

[Iphie]

Eh, his Friday radio talks are for the cult. That said, it is infuriating.

Sorry Flare, you're a good bean and a fair moderator (in my opinion) but your government is just a bunch of faszfej and faszszopó . ( No idea how to make plural but it looks cute)

[Elder Millennial]

I don't want to delve deep in it as it does not belong in this thread (beyond being another aspect of a NATO member becoming a Trojan horse for Eastern autocrats) but yes, China has kindly offered to assist us with policing ethnic Chinese in Hungary. And the party that can't stop screaming about SOVEREIGNTY! gladly accepted.

Just how large and how unruly is the ethnic Chinese community in Hungary, that the Hungarian state needs help with policing them?

[Flarelaine]

Just how large and how unruly is the ethnic Chinese community in Hungary, that the Hungarian state needs help with policing them?

If this topic is interesting enough that y'all believe it merits a thread, I'll be glad to add my 2 cents, but let's not derail this one further.

[dwarven]

The first Gulf War would be a far better comparison. At the time the Iraqi army was the 4th largest in the world, with over 1,000,000 men, of which over 600K were in Kuwait. They were experienced from the Iran-Iraq war and were outfitted with Soviet gear, a lot of which is comparable to what russia is using now. The Coalition was expected to take thousands of casualties in the war but the end result was massively lopsided, with accidents and friendly fire as much as threat to Coalition forces as the Iraqi's were.

Yeah, the US military is extremely good at dismantling conventional armies. Even fighting against guerilla tactics, the casualties suffered by the opposing group are massive compared to the US losses in every conflict.

[Jessicka]

Yeah, the US military is extremely good at dismantling conventional armies. Even fighting against guerilla tactics, the casualties suffered by the opposing group are massive compared to the US losses in every conflict.

Good at fighting, bad at civilian administration. Same as running their own country with paramilitary policing.

[Xyonai]

You should tell that to the taliban
https://vm.tiktok.com/ZGe4mXnRt/

I think the thing to note, here, is that no one's talking - seriously - about invading Russia itself in a hypothetical conflict with them. Moreso, the conversation seems to be more the perspective of Russia continuing to try and push outside of its borders and that's where most of the 'Russia is a credible threat' squinting comes from.

Considering their poor showing in Ukraine - relative to the alleged military differences between the two countries at the war's onset - and how relatively quick training with old Western Armaments seems to be enough to stall or push back against Russian invading forces... Trying to hit a country where that equipment is standard, or allied to a country where that equipment is standard, and isn't rife with Ukraine's pre-war corruption issues will probably be an insurmountable task for a military who's main tactics insofar have been 'Throw a bunch of guys at the problem until it works, use artillery to kill their children and sometimes strike at military targets if we have to I guess'.

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Good at fighting, bad at civilian administration. Same as running their own country with paramilitary policing.

We honestly didn't do a bad job post WW2, though I think a lot of the help with that came with the contrast to how bad the USSR was that occupied Germany and Japan just sort of put up with us and somehow turned out for the better, rather than turned out better solely because of the US's post-war efforts. The rest being our ability to throw hilarious amounts of money into reconstruction projects that we probably don't have anymore, nor probably will ever again with 'fiscal conservatives' guarding the purse strings like a fat dragon sitting on piles of gold.

[Corvus]

France is reportedly going to be sending trainers to Ukraine. There shouldn't be much danger for them if they do go, given russia doesn't go after military targets much.

And there are also reports of serious discussion within NATO of defending the airspace of western Ukraine from drones and missiles - the Baltics, Poland, France, Canada and the UK are said to be in favour, but (surprise surprise) Germany and the US are against it.

[Surfd]

Just how large and how unruly is the ethnic Chinese community in Hungary, that the Hungarian state needs help with policing them?

That's not really the right line of questions to be asking. I fully imagine it's probably a very similar situation to the stuff the Chinese government has been pulling with ethnic Chinese here in Canada. It has basically nothing to do with them being "unruly", but rather everything to do with Big Brother Communist Overwatch really not liking their "citizens" being outside of their reach to make sure they aren't picking up any nasty western mind viruses.

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You should tell that to the taliban
https://vm.tiktok.com/ZGe4mXnRt/

What are you going on about? The "war" in Afghanistan was over practically before it even started. The entire rest of that shitshow had about 1% to do with American Military capability, and 99% to do with the fact that the USA has absolutely fuckall of a plan for what to do "after" they roll in and shit freedom-eagles all over the place.

The USA is VERY VERY VERY good at blowing shit up. We've known this for practically a century at this point. They are also absolute shit at basically any kind of followup afterwards unless it involves blowing more shit up.

So, again, since Russian Military Doctrine pretty much hasn't functionally changed since the 40's, and has all the modern finesse of a bag full of hammers falling down a flight of stairs, the USA would absolutely dance all over them.

[ringpriest]

What are you going on about? The "war" in Afghanistan was over practically before it even started. The entire rest of that shitshow had about 1% to do with American Military capability, and 99% to do with the fact that the USA has absolutely fuckall of a plan for what to do "after" they roll in and shit freedom-eagles all over the place.

The USA is VERY VERY VERY good at blowing shit up. We've known this for practically a century at this point. They are also absolute shit at basically any kind of followup afterwards unless it involves blowing more shit up.

So, again, since Russian Military Doctrine pretty much hasn't functionally changed since the 40's, and has all the modern finesse of a bag full of hammers falling down a flight of stairs, the USA would absolutely dance all over them.

There's a joke going back to at least WWII:

If you encounter a unit you can't identify, fire one round over their heads and wait for the response.

If it's a fusillade of rapid, precise rifle fire, they're British.

If it's a storm of machine-gun fire, they're German.

If they throw down their arms and surrender, they're Italian.

And if nothing happens for five minutes and then your position in obliterated by artillery or an airstrike, they're American.

[Jessicka]

We honestly didn't do a bad job post WW2, though I think a lot of the help with that came with the contrast to how bad the USSR was that occupied Germany and Japan just sort of put up with us and somehow turned out for the better, rather than turned out better solely because of the US's post-war efforts. The rest being our ability to throw hilarious amounts of money into reconstruction projects that we probably don't have anymore, nor probably will ever again with 'fiscal conservatives' guarding the purse strings like a fat dragon sitting on piles of gold.

Post WW2 you gave buckets of cash to western Europe to deal with it ourselves. That worked with established governmental systems, but when you're just paying off local mafias, less good.