Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Xyonai]

Please read my post and grasp what i'm saying.

If you think this assessment is incorrect, you're free to prove me wrong but reading this as "Russia is doing well" is plain false.

Ukraine is having manpower problems, the West is (still) lagging behind on weapon / ammunition delivery.
EU had recent elections where (among other) right wing parties, which are at times, far more friendly towards Russia, made some gains.

Then there's the US election in November, where Trumps chances of winning are far from 0.

With all due respect, you make it sound like Ukraine is out of the woods and final victory is only a matter of time, which i think is a pretty generous read of the current situation with like 20% of their country still occupied by Russia and any major offensive still a year off.

Yeah this war isn't ending anytime soon, and Russia has everything to gain from stalls and slow responses unless Ukraine makes some real big plays with their new toys and cripples Russia's Offensive Plans, and even then it becomes another stalemate for another few months.

I don't think EU support is going to evaporate overnight; a lot of those far right coalitions won on immigration issues and - as far as I know - supporting Ukraine remains fairly popular with the general electorate, but there's still room for the propaganda machine to churn or for Russian sympathetic political figures to drag their feet and bog up the works.

Same thing for the US, though Republicans and Trump don't really give a shit about what's actually popular and will probably axe all support for Ukraine as soon as they're able to, then just coast on being the other half of a two party system to shield them from consequences.

[Saradain]

Please read my post and grasp what i'm saying.

If you think this assessment is incorrect, you're free to prove me wrong but reading this as "Russia is doing well" is plain false.

Ukraine is having manpower problems, the West is (still) lagging behind on weapon / ammunition delivery.
EU had recent elections where (among other) right wing parties, which are at times, far more friendly towards Russia, made some gains.

Then there's the US election in November, where Trumps chances of winning are far from 0.

With all due respect, you make it sound like Ukraine is out of the woods and final victory is only a matter of time, which i think is a pretty generous read of the current situation with like 20% of their country still occupied by Russia and any major offensive still a year off.

Worry not, I perhaps phrased things in a way that I'd entirely disagree with you. Yeah, situation is less moving than at any another time, but it doesn't mean Russia is winning, or making it into an any sort of a "draw". The west is committed at making Russia lose, and I would dare to make a guess that what western superpowers want, will happen. We're not trying to occupy a foreign nation with entirely different culture here or anything else of that sort. We're supplying weapons with increasing rate to ensure every single mobik is grounded to a paste. Killing is somewhat easier prospect to do. And "our" weapons are perfected to do just that.

Ukraine ain't done with this war for some years unfortunately, since Russia is pretty much doing what they are trolling the internet about for Ukraine - to the last man. Just in reality, it's to the last russian, not ukrainian.

But I stand by my opinion that yeah, Putin is praying for a miracle. Making absurd demands, saber rattling around the borders...So I ask again, why else would Putin now want negotiations and "peace" when he knows Ukraine will not accept anything less but driving the orcs from all of Ukraine, with Crimea included? He can (and will be forced to) continue to grind his mobiks and hope it somehow turns into a wünderwaffe, when in reality Ukraine isn't killing the russki pigs with just their own weaponry, but far more modern ones that have shown extreme success.

If Putin wants a better chance of a miracle of Ukraine accepting a deal about ceded areas (not fully occupied even!), perhaps Putin should first make the war go so wonderfully well for him that his demands aren't laughed out of the negotation table on the first second.

[Endus]

Because if I recall correctly, Putin tried to avoid this war multiple times with the Minsk agreements. He also tried to stop it with the Instabul convention. Am I mistaken?

Grossly so. The literal only reason for this war, starting with the annexation of Crimea, was Putin's greed, expansionist ideals, and aggression. Literally nothing else. The entire conflict is 100% Putin's fault and responsibility, and he did so in direct violation of signed treaties.

[Gabriel]

Am I mistaken?

Every time you type up a post, m8.

[zealo]

Though I'll add that it's not up to us to assuage Putin's fears of the phantoms he himself invented.

A lot of NATO countries were well on their way to reducing their military output, most of them were doing their damnedest to invite Russia to the big boy table with trade agreements and energy deals, a lot of folks wanted to move passed the cold war era sentiments of 'Russia Evil' because global stability is more important than holding onto grudges.

The only reason NATO's growing right -now- is because Putin's a paranoid idiot who thought the walls were closing in around him and needed to show the world that he's a big strong man.

No, NATO isn't growing because Putin thought the walls were closing in around him, NATO is growing because Putin is an imperialist fascist that regards the collapse of the USSR as a tragedy, and wants to aggressively restore the borders of the Russian Empire and live to see it before he chokes on his own puke and kicks the bucket, and to be remembered as the man who "restored Russia to greatness" after he is gone, and countries bordering Russia ally with each others wanting no part in that whatsoever.

That they honestly believed NATO were out to get them is just a bunch of tripe, it's far worse than that.

[Xyonai]

Question: Do you believe that the people in eastern Ukraine were having a bad bad time from right wing Ukrainian elements? Or is this something that "Puttler" came up with?

A broad question, though I'll go with answer 'B' insomuch that there was a lot of Russian money and influence being funneled into those 'Separatist' efforts because Putin assumed that all it took to arm a revolution were wads of cash and some guns; then escalated things himself when his attempt at a rebel proxy war started fizzling out on its own.

[Endus]

No, NATO isn't growing because Putin thought the walls were closing in around him, NATO is growing because Putin is an imperialist fascist that regards the collapse of the USSR as a tragedy, and wants to aggressively restore the borders of the Russian Empire and live to see it before he chokes on his own puke and kicks the bucket, and to be remembered as the man who "restored Russia to greatness" after he is gone, and countries bordering Russia ally with each others wanting no part in that whatsoever.

That they honestly believed NATO were out to get them is just a bunch of tripe, it's far worse than that.

It's very uncomplicated. NATO is, at its core, a mutual defense pact. Someone attacks a NATO member, all NATO members jump on the attacker.

NATO poses precisely zero threats to anyone who isn't intending to attack a prospective or current NATO member. If Russia feels NATO is a threat, therefore, that explains their point of view in and of itself; the only reason for Russia to oppose Ukraine joining NATO is because Russia wants to attack Ukraine.

[Xyonai]

No, NATO isn't growing because Putin thought the walls were closing in around him, NATO is growing because Putin is an imperialist fascist that regards the collapse of the USSR as a tragedy, and wants to aggressively restore the borders of the Russian Empire and live to see it before he chokes on his own puke and kicks the bucket, and to be remembered as the man who "restored Russia to greatness" after he is gone, and countries bordering Russia ally with each others wanting no part in that whatsoever.

That they honestly believed NATO were out to get them is just a bunch of tripe, it's far worse than that.

I guess my wording wasn't that good on my closing statement but we otherwise agree with each other on the whole 'Putin being an imperialist/paranoid lunatic doesn't justify his actions, nor are we obligated to assuage his unfounded worries' thing.

[Poopymonster]

Yeah this war isn't ending anytime soon, and Russia has everything to gain from stalls and slow responses unless Ukraine makes some real big plays with their new toys and cripples Russia's Offensive Plans, and even then it becomes another stalemate for another few months.

I don't think EU support is going to evaporate overnight; a lot of those far right coalitions won on immigration issues and - as far as I know - supporting Ukraine remains fairly popular with the general electorate, but there's still room for the propaganda machine to churn or for Russian sympathetic political figures to drag their feet and bog up the works.

Same thing for the US, though Republicans and Trump don't really give a shit about what's actually popular and will probably axe all support for Ukraine as soon as they're able to, then just coast on being the other half of a two party system to shield them from consequences.

If in the US we get our shit together, the war would end a bit sooner.
But the useful idiots and wanna be russian dicktaster, I mean, dictator will do everything to stop it.

[Ulmita]

That's a domestic Ukranian issue.

I thought Putin didn't want to start a war? Why start one he didn't want to start? Why remain in one he didn't want to start?

So was it to denazify Ukraine? Was it because of NATO? Was it because of Ukrainians being mean to some of their own? The rotating door of reasons is confusing since we never know which one we're supposed to take seriously at any given moment.

Consistency is not thy name.

I think that NATO is the most important reason and waaay second comes the Russian speaking population. Either way, the local population had a bad time with the neo nazis of the Azov battalion. We have had multiple people from Marioupolis coming live in Greek TV saying that they fear for their lives because of them. Most of our parliament also recognizes them as Nazis, so i guess its a common knowledge here at Greece that there was a right wing problem in Ukraine.

Now, is all of Ukraine run by Nazis? Nope. Is it a bs excuse? Yes. Do i think that Russia will stop the war even if Zelensky agreed to Putin's terms? Nope, i think his plan is to create a "Ukraine wide" buffer zone and then maybe deal with the baltics when he feels Russia is strong again.

Btw, i blame NATO for this shitty situation we are in, if you are wondering. This s*itty organization is bringing the world closer to the abyss every passing day.

[Kralljin]

If Putin wants a better chance of a miracle of Ukraine accepting a deal about ceded areas (not fully occupied even!), perhaps Putin should first make the war go so wonderfully well for him that his demands aren't laughed out of the negotation table on the first second.

I don't see that Putin currently wants negotiations.
I think his current plans are play the long game and hope that Ukraine either gives up internally due to them burning through their young, male population or the West giving up support / forcing a settlement.

I think that Putin doesn't want to appear completely unreasonable (as in declining any sort of negotiation) but rather be open for negotiations but then make unreasonable demands that negotiations will not happen.
Which is frankly not an uncommon strategy, when we have a customer wants us to develop something technically barely feasible (where Design / R&D knows it'll be a huge pain), Sales & Marketing simply jacks up the price to a point where we would still come out ahead regardless of all the trouble it involves or customer simply then declines the offer.

At face value, it makes little difference but there is a difference between "no, fuck off" and "okay, that's our price. What? It's too high? Agh, too bad".

[Edge-]

I think that NATO is the most important reason and waaay second comes the Russian speaking population.

Why didn't Putin say so when he first invaded, then? NATO came later after the whole nazi bit fell apart.

Also, those Russian speaking Ukrainians are still Ukrainians living in Ukraine. Not Daddy Vladdy's kids.

Also, NATO is not an offensive organization.

Either way, the local population had a bad time with the neo nazis of the Azov battalion. We have had multiple people from Marioupolis coming live in Greek TV saying that they fear for their lives because of them. Most of our parliament also recognizes them as Nazis, so i guess its a common knowledge here at Greece that there was a right wing problem in Ukraine.

Allegedly*

And again, that remains a Ukrainian problem, not a Russian problem.

Now, is all of Ukraine run by Nazis? Nope. Is it a bs excuse? Yes. Do i think that Russia will stop the war even if Zelensky agreed to Putin's terms? Nope, i think his plan is to create a "Ukraine wide" buffer zone and then maybe deal with the baltics when he feels Russia is strong again.

Ok so it's actually a war of aggression that Putin wants even though you said he didn't want it. Trying to follow your talking points as they morph from post to post is challenging.

Btw, i blame NATO for this shitty situation we are in, if you are wondering. This s*itty organization is bringing the world closer to the abyss every passing day.

Yes, we know you seem to uncritically repeat Russian misinformation all the time. Tell us something new.

Also, notice how Russia is one of the only nations with this specific problem and gee I wonder when y'all will start to wonder if the reason that all of Russia's former vassal states that are now on its border are running to western alliances and treaties is because those are all better, safer deals for those nations than closer ties with their largest geographic neighbor.

[Ulmita]

That's a domestic Ukranian issue.

I thought Putin didn't want to start a war? Why start one he didn't want to start? Why remain in one he didn't want to start?

So was it to denazify Ukraine? Was it because of NATO? Was it because of Ukrainians being mean to some of their own? The rotating door of reasons is confusing since we never know which one we're supposed to take seriously at any given moment.

Consistency is not thy name.

Something last Edge, we absolutely knew how the Russians would react if Ukraine ever tried to join NATO and we knew that the Russians view NATO's expansion as an existential threat.
Scholars and academics to ambassadors and generals have said it. This is a nice read. We chose to ignore, and do what we do the best: Give the money to arms dealers rather to the poor and those in need, to science, medical research and space exploration. It's a never ending cycle of capitalistic greed.

[Endus]

Btw, i blame NATO for this shitty situation we are in, if you are wondering. This s*itty organization is bringing the world closer to the abyss every passing day.

Again, NATO is just a mutual defense pact. If you're not planning on attacking a current or prospective NATO member, their proximity to you is irrelevant. There are no reasonable grounds to blame NATO for anything happening in Eastern Europe. It's entirely down to Russian expansionist dreams and their complete inability to actually uphold their end of their own aggression.

Cripes, they've lost nearly a third of their navy to a country that doesn't have a navy.

[Xyonai]

Something last Edge, we absolutely knew how the Russians would react if Ukraine ever tried to join NATO and we knew that the Russians view NATO's expansion as an existential threat.
Scholars and academics to ambassadors and generals have said it. This is a nice read. We chose to ignore, and do what we do the best: Give the money to arms dealers rather to the poor and those in need, to science, medical research and space exploration. It's a never ending cycle of capitalistic greed.

"Russia's justified in their invasion because NATO spends any amount of money on Military rather than give it away to the poor and needy" is certainly a... take. I won't say it's the dumbest one, but it probably clears the top five, easy.

- - - Updated - - -

It's entirely down to Russian expansionist dreams and their complete inability to actually uphold their end of their own aggression.

But Endus, Soft Power and Diplomacy are for cucks and nerds. Everyone knows the best way to rule over... erm, 'make friends with' neighboring countries are to beat them into submission or threaten to beat them into submission if they don't give you every single thing you want.

...Wait why are all these ungrateful countries suddenly trying to cozy up with the west, and why are the westerners forming an Anti-Me alliance? It must be a dastardly plot to undermine my awesomeness, and not because I've been a violent, unlikable dipshit for almost a hundred and fifty years.

[Edge-]

Something last Edge, we absolutely knew how the Russians would react if Ukraine ever tried to join NATO and we knew that the Russians view NATO's expansion as an existential threat.

Putin*

And that's tough shit for Russia. Again, no curiosity for why a nations territorial neighbors would seek to forge relations with competing nations/alliances.

Scholars and academics to ambassadors and generals have said it. This is a nice read. We chose to ignore, and do what we do the best: Give the money to arms dealers rather to the poor and those in need, to science, medical research and space exploration. It's a never ending cycle of capitalistic greed.

So a diplomatic report about Russian government opposition to Ukraine joining NATO. Who are these scholars and academics and generals, then?

Arms dealers? What are you talking about?

- - - Updated - - -

Again, NATO is just a mutual defense pact. If you're not planning on attacking a current or prospective NATO member, their proximity to you is irrelevant. There are no reasonable grounds to blame NATO for anything happening in Eastern Europe. It's entirely down to Russian expansionist dreams and their complete inability to actually uphold their end of their own aggression.

Cripes, they've lost nearly a third of their navy to a country that doesn't have a navy.

It's funny because again there's still zero curiosity for why Ukraine might want to join NATO over retaining close ties to their neighbors in Russia.

There's always the, "Well what if China put bases in Mexico!?" bad faith question and like my dude if the US has so thoroughly wrecked our relationship with our neighbor on the southern border that they feel that pivoting to aligning themselves with China and the Chinese view of the world is their best bet then we've monumentally fucked up.

[Belize]

@Ultima

What's wrong bud, you brought up the Minsk agreements as a gotcha but don't seem to wanna talk about the topic.

[Ivanstone]

We have had multiple people from Marioupolis coming live in Greek TV saying that they fear for their lives because of them.

The tiny Avoz Battalion is scary?

Is it more or less scary than the Russians destroying 93% of Mariupol?

[Twdft]

Do i think that Russia will stop the war even if Zelensky agreed to Putin's terms? Nope, i think his plan is to create a "Ukraine wide" buffer zone and then maybe deal with the baltics when he feels Russia is strong again.

I really hope you get paid for posting stuff like this. Because if this (and everything else you post) is your actual opinion

[Deus Mortis]

Russia's joke of a peace proposal is just a giant facepalm. I really do hope we(usa) provide Ukraine an insane amount of shit for the upcoming f16's. I also hope there can be a lot of stuff passed that is immune to anything that can be done if Trump gets elected.