Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Iphie]

Historically, "angry legions of psychotic soldiers that just lost a war and came home" tend to turn their anger on the government who send them to fight a losing war, not get redirected into another one.

Well...technically that's incorrect since a civil war is still a war, but otherwise you're right.

[Saradain]

Ah yes, "dumb incapable Russians" because that totally is reasonable take and does not reek of some very dark things. If we are to believe Spiegel the suspected assasins already had entered EU, but "there was not enough reason for arrest". Convenient.

Oh well, back to watching busification videos.

Nothing to say regarding your "sources" superiority vs intelligence agencies? No? Just here to roll your eyes again until departing until your cohorts tell you to post again so they don't become irrelevant. Oh well, back to actual discussion.

[Veggie50]

It will be easier to sell that lie if the angry legions of psychotic soldiers just lost a war and came home start rampaging across Moscow. In that moment, Putin can say the anarchy is caused by the West and the apathetic victims of the carnage will buy his narrative of course (or be forced to).

Compared to just bluffing, that will probably convince the Russians.

If we cower to Russia’s nuclear threat and just let them take what they want, they’ll be back next time to take another piece of another country, and we’ll again bow down cuz “oh no nukes”.

You cant bow down to a bully. I’m very sorry your parents didn’t teach you this crucial life lesson. Taking a nuke would be preferrable in the long run.

[Calfredd]

It will be easier to sell that lie if the angry legions of psychotic soldiers just lost a war and came home start rampaging across Moscow. In that moment, Putin can say the anarchy is caused by the West and the apathetic victims of the carnage will buy his narrative of course (or be forced to).

Compared to just bluffing, that will probably convince the Russians.

You are a liar and disgust me with your constant masturbation towards Russia and unrealistic hypotheticals.

[diller]

Curious to see Yuppie being right for once.

About what?

No one want's to annex Russia.

[Specialka]

About what?

No one want's to annex Russia.

That the West does not want escalation with Russia.

[Flarelaine]

There any of those left in Russia...?

Millions, I think. They are just not allowed anywhere near power.

[Elder Millennial]

Ah yes, "dumb incapable Russians" because that totally is reasonable take and does not reek of some very dark things. If we are to believe Spiegel the suspected assasins already had entered EU, but "there was not enough reason for arrest". Convenient.

Oh well, back to watching busification videos.

Russians can be individually capable, honest, decent and normal.

Russians as a group and culture aren't. If they were, Russia wouldn't be the shit hole that it has been for centuries and wouldn't slide back into being a shit hole every time there's a slim chance to improve.

It's enough to look at how they conduct themselves in this war to pass an accurate judgement on the "Ruski mir". Murderous, violent, rapey, corrupt, rapacious, thieving and dishonest.

It almost boggles the mind that a culture like Russia can exist in the 21st century.

I literally cannot conjure up a single redeeming quality for "Russia" as a country. Zero zilch. Not one. And I would challenge anyone to come up with one.

[Gorsameth]

That the West does not want escalation with Russia.

It took you 2 years of the West trying not to escalate to reach that conclusion?
But there is a gap between not wanting to escalate and rolling over to let Russia do whatever it wants.

[Elder Millennial]

That the West does not want escalation with Russia.

Just a bit of a heads up.

There are plenty of people and countries that in fact WANT to escalate.

Not escalate the way Yuppie fantasizes, but escalate in the sense that they have come to the understanding that the only way to end this war, and do so on a reasonable time frame is by making the Russians bleed.

Bleed enough to have the Russian public finally pull their own heads out of their asses and make them cut their losses and pull the fuck out.

Contrary to popular misconceptions Russia does in fact lose wars and pulls out of unwinnable fights due to domestic pressure and it does so without immolating itself.

We just need the appeasers to pull their fucking heads out of their own asses and stop lionizing Russia.

[Makabreska]

It took you 2 years of the West trying not to escalate to reach that conclusion?
But there is a gap between not wanting to escalate and rolling over to let Russia do whatever it wants.

Dunno. Looking on how much Russia has been doing sabotage, assassinations, espionage and general meddling, our response always seemed weak. Guess such is the reality of democracy vs dictatorships. We are actually compelled to play by the rules.

[Specialka]

It took you 2 years of the West trying not to escalate to reach that conclusion?
But there is a gap between not wanting to escalate and rolling over to let Russia do whatever it wants.

Nope, it was clear from the beginning that we did not want to escalate. Don't know what you are trying to do here.

[YUPPIE]

no one wants to annex Russia, but if we decide to go to war with them (which will result in them going full psycho) and it ends with their defeat, they WILL be occupied let's not kid ourselves.

[Specialka]

Just a bit of a heads up.

There are plenty of people and countries that in fact WANT to escalate.

Not escalate the way Yuppie fantasizes, but escalate in the sense that they have come to the understanding that the only way to end this war, and do so on a reasonable time frame is by making the Russians bleed.

Bleed enough to have the Russian public finally pull their own heads out of their asses and make them cut their losses and pull the fuck out.

Contrary to popular misconceptions Russia does in fact lose wars and pulls out of unwinnable fights due to domestic pressure and it does so without immolating itself.

We just need the appeasers to pull their fucking heads out of their own asses and stop lionizing Russia.

Making Russia bleed is the only thing that can be done anyway as long as the Ukrainians are willing to do the dying. The West can't pull out if they want to keep their credibility up.

[Elder Millennial]

Making Russia bleed is the only thing that can be done anyway as long as the Ukrainians are willing to do the dying. The West can't pull out if they want to keep their credibility up.

The question is "Bleed how much?"

There are 2 camps

1. Make them bleed enough so they can't move forward.

2. Flood Ukraine with guns, ammo, jets, long range missiles etc so they can carpet bomb every Russian trench, troop concentration, logistical hub, military infrastructure etc until it all turns into ash and meat cubes.

I'm more of camp 2. The UK, France under Macron, the Scandinavians, Czechs, Poland, Denmark and Netherlands and the Baltics are in camp 2.

The US and Germany are in camp 1.

Until the US switches to camp 2 we are a bit stuck with this situation.

[YUPPIE]

The question is "Bleed how much?"

There are 2 camps

1. Make them bleed enough so they can't move forward.

2. Flood Ukraine with guns, ammo, jets, long range missiles etc so they can carpet bomb every Russian trench, troop concentration, logistical hub, military infrastructure etc until it all turns into ash and meat cubes.

I'm more of camp 2. The UK, France under Macron, the Scandinavians, Czechs, Poland, Denmark and Netherlands and the Baltics are in camp 2.

The US and Germany are in camp 1.

Until the US switches to camp 2 we are a bit stuck with this situation.

Let's explore Camp 2, as bloodthirsty as it is. Say we do that and that happens. Now detail how the US would respond to this

*White House phone rings*
Putin: STOP IT NOW, FINAL WARNING (caps for yelling)

In hindsight though, all these what-ifs and precautionary scenarios though would not have to be thought of if the US simply let the Nazis defeat the Soviet Union and then defeated the Nazis, or if the US immediately turned on Stalin after the Axis powers were defeated.

[Belize]

Let's explore Camp 2, as bloodthirsty as it is. Say we do that and that happens. Now detail how the US would respond to this

*White House phone rings*
Putin: STOP IT NOW, FINAL WARNING (caps for yelling)

Or what, Yuppie. What would the deterrent be?

[YUPPIE]

Or what, Yuppie. What would the deterrent be?

Russia officially declares war on the West, specifically the US, of course.

Don't think our very angry modern citizens in a time of economic crisis would be happy with Biden if he decided to drag us into a war with a superpower when we had enough trouble with third-world Islamic terrorists.

[En Sabah Nur]

Russia officially declares war on the West, specifically the US, of course.

Don't think our very angry modern citizens in a time of economic crisis would be happy with Biden if he decided to drag us into a war with a superpower when we had enough trouble with third-world Islamic terrorists.

The difference here would be that the US was never at war with the Middle East. It would be at war with Russia. Outcomes would be very different.

[Elder Millennial]

Russia officially declares war on the West, specifically the US, of course.

Ok Russia can declare whatever the fuck It wants. How do you suspect Russia would wage said war?

It's nuclear or nothing. Russia does not have the capability to defeat Ukraine and roughly 0.02% of NATO's collective capacity given to Ukraine as hand me downs.

We are not invading Russia, no matter how much you want to jerk off to that.

So what is Russia going to do?

Self immolate?

NATO is not and had never been an existential threat to Russia. Russia can always JUST FUCK OFF out of Ukraine and the war is over.

That's the point of killing Russians in Ukraine wholesale. We need to tip the cost benefit ratio so far into cost side that the Russian public turns on the war.

A problem with the current strategy is that Russia is actually able to domestically cover up its losses. They are losing about 20000 dead and injured a month. And they can sustain this, they can hide it...until they can't. But it's hard to tell how long that will take.

On the other hand having an entire army or two wiped, losing the whole of DNR or LNR or Crimea with 50000 or 100000 dead, injured or captured would be a big enough shock that event the Kremlin couldn't cover it up, and might fucking finally shake the Russian public out of its servile stupor.

And no Yuppie. RUSSIA WILL NOT USE NUKES. Not tactical, not strategic, not any kind. There isn't a single person in Russia (including Putin) who would immolate Moscow or St Petersburg for Donbas or Crimea.