Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Vampiregenesis]

I think in the past Sirski said they are preparing another counterattack, is this what they were talking for? the timing aligns with the arrival of F-16. It sounds like a large operation.

[Calfredd]

Putin said they are 1000

You'd believe Putin if he said the sky wasn't blue but tartan.

[Edge-]

Putin said they are 1000

Imagine believing Valdimir Putin and taking him at his word in the year of our lord 2024. That's an omega level ooph.

[Easo]

They are committing entire brigades while other cities are at a critical situation. It's not your moderate sabotage behind front lines.

Few companies at most. Stop overblowing it.

[Northern Goblin]

It's larger than a regular raid force for certain. It's also seemingly highly mobile, so it looks like trained veterans are being committed.

The majority of what Russia has at this point are meatgrinders, they can't mobilise and redeploy that fast, so whatever Ukraine is doing, they're acting unimpeded.

[KrayZ33]

I still don't understand the goal of this attack and judging from analyst and ex/current military personal and their content/comments I'm watching and reading, people are just as confused.

This is not a mere raiding force.
Pioneer vehicles are involved, and frankly, most of the (important) infrastructure is like 60km away inland. You'd need like 10k+ to get that under control and "secure it".

Sudzha is in a worse position than their own defensive position they have right now, there are railroads... but... unless they hold the whole thing it's not going to do much because cutting it just won't do, you can still supply everything from either side since the rest is under Russian control.

According to Rybar (pro russian milblogger) it seems like Ukraine is trying to push the frontline forward because it will basically be half the size that way. Aparently there are more forces further to the north(west)
Excuse my shi'ddy drawing


The blue part is a river, everything left from that is high ground, probably a 100 meter difference on a very short distance, and the river seems wide.

If Russia is unprepared and can't get it under control, this might free up some personal long term... or something like that?
(here is the post from Rybar, for whatever it's worth
https://twitter.com/rybar_force/stat...33776736788957 )

[Northern Goblin]

If Russia is unprepared and can't get it under control, this might free up some personal long term... or something like that?

This is the main aim, I don't see them trying to occupy the likes of Sudzha or the nuclear plant for several months for some kind of bargaining chip in any negotiations.

This has to be a test of the Russian's capability to redeploy, much like the Northern Kharkiv move a couple of years back, push where there's least resistance rather than dive into the meatgrinder that is the Surovikin line.


Edit: The most implausible, but not impossible, scenario is they go into Luhansk from the north, but there's no way they have the logistics for that.

[Gorsameth]

Could just be pushing an understaffed part of the line in the hopes of drawing a response and forcing Russia to move forces away from other more important area's?

[KrayZ33]

Could just be pushing an understaffed part of the line in the hopes of drawing a response and forcing Russia to move forces away from other more important area's?

Technically Russia should have more than enough to hold through reserves and such, but seeing the POW Ukraine supposedly have taken already it might be that the ones holding the lines literally don't want to hold the line and are mostly conscripts.
Obviously I wasn't there, but if their morale is low enough to just surrender (quickly), perhaps they actually have to commit more professional troops towards frontline defense after this, at least to fill the gaps.

I think we'll know for sure in a day or two how well this does and how quick it's going to end or succeed.
Pushing the line forward there might mean that it's possible just about anywhere else where Russia itself is not attacking and using the trained troops with lots of material.
I guess Russia right now just didn't really bother to defend with more experienced troops because Ukraine is in a defensive position. There is basically not enough of a "threat" to use trained/expert troops to hold the frontline in areas that are currently not plan of the offensive.

But for all I know, they could be back to their previous line in a day because Russia successfully pushed it all back with reserves.

[Easo]

Technically Russia should have more than enough to hold through reserves and such, but seeing the POW Ukraine supposedly have taken already it might be that the ones holding the lines literally don't want to hold the line and are mostly conscripts.

It is mostly conscripts with a mix of veterans/Rosgvardia/etc in charge of them. Since they cannot be used in Ukraine itself (meaning in a warzone) this is the "workaround" - have them guard the long border. Obviously have less staying power as we are talking about something like ~6 months of training from zero, with veeery little to no actual fighting experience. Obviously that means border posts will be overrun when faced with what I assume are veterans + armored vehicles running at you in company sized groups.

[Corvus]

There is video and photos of a large number of russians surrendering due to the attack - between 50 and 60 just in one spot. And a fair number of those will be conscripts. It seems to be the largest surrender of russians in the war to date - and it happened on russian soil.

Taking Sudzha could have big impacts. The main trainline to Belgorod runs through it, and Belgorod is the main logistical hub for the entire northern part of russia's army. And it is also where the pipelines to Europe run through. Ukraine isn't going to damage the pipelines that run through its own territory, as they own them, but if they get russia to blow up their own with the indiscriminate shelling they like to do, well, it socks for orban but russia would be to blame.

[Jessicka]

It is mostly conscripts with a mix of veterans/Rosgvardia/etc in charge of them. Since they cannot be used in Ukraine itself (meaning in a warzone) this is the "workaround" - have them guard the long border. Obviously have less staying power as we are talking about something like ~6 months of training from zero, with veeery little to no actual fighting experience. Obviously that means border posts will be overrun when faced with what I assume are veterans + armored vehicles running at you in company sized groups.

So they’re the favoured recruits who weren’t supposed to be at risk. That won’t go down well back in Moscow.

[Easo]

So they’re the favoured recruits who weren’t supposed to be at risk. That won’t go down well back in Moscow.

Not really, nothing will happen. The only time shit hit some fan was back at the very start when few units of them were used in the initial invasion, but as soon that got public they were recalled and have been ever since (IIRC whole thing took less than a month).

[Yunru]

Ok this is interesting. They can take over russan nuclear power plant and maybe use it to store their ammo there .

[Vampiregenesis]

this looks serious

https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1821266620695900466

50% of eu gas exports are from Sudzha

[Twdft]

I still don't understand the goal of this attack and judging from analyst and ex/current military personal and their content/comments I'm watching and reading, people are just as confused.

One way this war ends is if the Russian population demands it from its leader with widespread demonstrations comparable with let's say anti Vietnam war in the US. Piss off Russians enough by attacks inside Russia and perhaps they begin with that. (and tbh widespread anti war movement would be necessary for me personally to want to play with them again).

[Rustedsaint]

Future generations are gonna call this the meme war for all the shit that keeps happening.

[Edge-]

this looks serious

https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1821266620695900466

50% of eu gas exports are from Sudzha

I think the Ukrainian staff have played too much League of Legends, are they trying to backdoor Russia?

Ok we can't beat them so let's invade them instead and steal some land.

They are committing entire brigades while other cities are at a critical situation. It's not your moderate sabotage behind front lines.

Damn, looks like this "brigade" (which isn't a brigade, it's much smaller), is being pretty darned effective! Maybe they are back dooring Russia like it's League of Legends, do ya think?

[YUPPIE]

Ukraine has crossed a line actually going into Russian borders. As sensationalist as that headline is (Putin in panic!) I would not treat the current state of affairs as a joke if Putin really is panicking.

[PhaelixWW]

Ukraine has crossed a line actually going into Russian borders. As sensationalist as that headline is (Putin in panic!) I would not treat the current state of affairs as a joke if Putin really is panicking.

They sure did cross a line: the border.

Da-dum-tsss!