Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Northern Goblin]

Surrender and/or switch sides?

The latter it seems.

[Iphie]

The latter it seems.

Mercs gotta merc, but that would be beyond funny.

[Jessicka]

My confusion stems from Schlieffen dying 20 years before the French built their fortifications.

Mixing up my WW1 and WW2, but the premise was the same.

[Doomcookie]

Yeah but a border incursion is a whole new ball park again. Up to now we have never reached a point like this where Putin could be legitimately cornered. He was always in the cushy safety of Moscow but now Ukraine is taking the fight to Russia itself.

Maybe you should call up your homeboy, and tell him to stop trying to be such a manly masculine man, who does manly things.

Tell him that the truly masculine thing for him, would be to admit fault, and ask for forgiveness.

[Elder Millennial]

It’s been logical at least since Schleiffen just went around the Maginot line.

wrong line for the wrong plan.

Schlieffen was WW1. Maginot was WW2. Because the Germans absolutely wouldn't go through Belgium...TWICE.

Tho ....the Maginot line actually worked. The French did in fact expect the Germans to come through Belgium again. The intention of the line was to channel the Germans through Belgium.

What neither the French or the British expected was just how fast the Germans would go through Belgium.

And unlike the British, the French didn't have an island to evacuate to.

[Corvus]

At some point russia will have to bring in heavy mechanised units from somewhere, as lightly armed conscripts and police aren't cutting it. The longer they take, the more ground Ukraine will take and time they will have to dig in.

And russia only has one tactic, to level settlements with bombs and artillery, levelling every building to the ground. Then, when they move in, they'll rape, rob and murder anyone left there. Doesn't matter that they are russian towns and russian residents - it's how the russian army fights.

[Elder Millennial]

Yeah but a border incursion is a whole new ball park again. Up to now we have never reached a point like this where Putin could be legitimately cornered. He was always in the cushy safety of Moscow but now Ukraine is taking the fight to Russia itself.

Putin remains perfectly safe in Moscow. The Ukrainians just don't have the logistics or the manpower to go much deeper.

They couldn't even take Kursk city even if the whole Russian army in the area folded and withdrew as the Ukrainians just don't have the manpower to run occupation on a city of 400k.

On the other hand...if Russia wasn't a nuclear power...Poland could do the funniest fucking thing and just drive St. Petersburg and Moscow with the only real opposition being the odd border guards, police departments, and a handful of barely trained, under equipped conscripts who just want to go back to their mothers and would fold at the sight of the first tank and air strike.

It would be a hilarious sight to behold. And it just highlights how badly the Russians actually depleted themselves.

Their entire territorial defense strategy now depends on "We have nukes" and absolutely nothing else.

[PhaelixWW]

At some point russia will have to bring in heavy mechanised units from somewhere, as lightly armed conscripts and police aren't cutting it. The longer they take, the more ground Ukraine will take and time they will have to dig in.

I can't imagine Ukraine has any plans on digging in; I'd assume they have some more finite objective to reach before GTFO'ing.

And russia only has one tactic, to level settlements with bombs and artillery, levelling every building to the ground. Then, when they move in, they'll rape, rob and murder anyone left there. Doesn't matter that they are russian towns and russian residents - it's how the russian army fights.

It's what you expect from an army of convicts and conscripts.

[Elder Millennial]

At some point russia will have to bring in heavy mechanised units from somewhere, as lightly armed conscripts and police aren't cutting it. The longer they take, the more ground Ukraine will take and time they will have to dig in.

And russia only has one tactic, to level settlements with bombs and artillery, levelling every building to the ground. Then, when they move in, they'll rape, rob and murder anyone left there. Doesn't matter that they are russian towns and russian residents - it's how the russian army fights.

Russia has an additional resource here. Depth.

I think the Russian command already realized that they just don't have anything on hand that they could use that would physically stop the Ukrainians here. So they did the math of "How many men can the Ukrainians sink into this and how much land can they take with it" and came to the conclusion of just giving up as much land as the Ukrainians can realistically take.

This is why the Russians aren't treating this as an emergency. It's more of, they'll run out of steam eventually and we will deal with them later.

I don't know if the Russians expected that the Ukrainians would throw in another brigade.

The Russians are still pushing down south. If the Ukrainians were hoping this attack would relieve pressure there, there's no indication for that to have worked....yet.

Again, I have read some interesting analysis that claims that the Ukrainians actually don't want the Russians to stop attacking. The current Ukrainian strategy is to slowly, in a controlled manner trade land while causing maximum Russian casualties.

The recruitment issues Russians recently started having suggests that that strategy is actually working.

The Ukrainians expect the Russian offensive in the south to culminate and stop in the next 4 to 8 weeks. After which the Russians would stop and consolidate...also rebuild their numbers again.

This area taken in Russia would force the Russians to keep attacking to dislodge the Ukrainians. So the Ukrainians could keep grinding the Russian manpower down, but by trading Russian land instead of their own.

- - - Updated - - -

I can't imagine Ukraine has any plans on digging in; I'd assume they have some more finite objective to reach before GTFO'ing.

This is not a raid. It's not organized or executed as one. I don't expect the Ukrainians to hold a referendum and annex the People's Republic of Kursk, but they are definitely not leaving without being made to leave.

On the other hand, the most interesting question for me is how did the Ukrainians manage to pull off such a big force build up without the Russians noticing.

If they really didn't notice...expect someone at intelligence gathering to meet a window. If they did notice, but analysis came to the conclusion that it's all a bluff or something, expect someone from analysis to meet a window.

Either way....What intelligence doing?

[alach]

Another headline within the last day,

Ukraine’s F-16s ‘Roar & Soar’ Over Russia-Controlled Kakhovka District For The 1st Time — A Tactic Designed To ‘Sow Panic’?
For the first time, Ukrainian F-16 fighter jets have been spotted over the Russian-occupied Kakhovka district in the Kherson region, according to reports from Russian media.
Filipchuk said, “Since yesterday, F-16s have been flying over our district.” He characterized the appearance of the jets as a tactic designed to “sow panic” and undermine morale among the local population.

Eye for an eye or Turnabout is fair play or how you like them apples?
Russia as always, answers with empty boasting and threats.

“It is important not to succumb to these sentiments and remain steadfast. Their lifespan is as long as that of a mosquito. They will all be shot down and destroyed,” he said.

Filipchuk also stated that the jets would soon join the list of exhibits at Poklonnaya Gora in Moscow, where captured military equipment was displayed, emphasizing his belief that the aircraft would soon be destroyed.

[Corvus]

There was a report that commanders on the ground noticed the Ukrainian build up but higher ups ignored it.

A while back there were rumours of a russian build up to attack Sumy. This was where it happened, in an effort to drag Ukrainian troops there and away from the Kharkov attack. When that went badly wrong, the commander of the northern forces stripped the region of units to reinforce the failure, leaving behind mostly conscripts plus some internal security forces and some tiktok warriors.

The Ukrainians saw the troops depart, saw how weak the russians were in the region and decided to take advantage.

[PhaelixWW]

Well, no matter what, the fact that Putin is flushing his "legacy" down the drain leaves me with an immense feeling of schadenfreude.

I mean, who could have predicted Ukraine launching a successful incursion into Russia 3 years ago?

[Iphie]

Well, no matter what, the fact that Putin is flushing his "legacy" down the drain leaves me with an immense feeling of schadenfreude.

I mean, who could have predicted Ukraine launching a successful incursion into Russia 3 years ago?

The russians...I mean that was one of their talking points wasn't it? Ukraine being on the verge of invading?

[alach]

Thats what we call a self fulfilling prophecy.

So @YUPPIE, this is a legit incursion of russia going on at the moment, with F-16s over the skies of russian soil and Nato military hardware on the ground. These are also uniformed Ukrainian soldiers, not some para-militaries that attacked belgorod last year.
Im just saying this because this is every single red line putin has being crossed.
Its now on day two, if he doesnt respond with biggliest meanliest nukliest strongliest-man within .. oh lets say 24 hours, I think we should all agree that we will forever end the talk of evil Putins revenge, payback, escalation, or whatever you want to call it and just admit that hes a paper tiger and we have nothing to worry about.
Deal?

[PhaelixWW]

The russians...I mean that was one of their talking points wasn't it? Ukraine being on the verge of invading?

And with NATO hardware. Huh.

Thats what we call a self fulfilling prophecy.

I guess it is.

[Corvus]

Why is russia still resisting? They should just surrender to prevent unnecessary loss of life.

[Low Hanging Fruit]

Just take an hold. You now have something to exchange for territory in an negotiation that might arise. You don't have to defeat Russia with the attack. But earning something worth trading at the table besides "you get to live" has value.

[Northern Goblin]

In before we find out the Russian military budget was cut so deep that the nukes don't even work anymore.

They gutted the rest of their military to make the oligarchy rich, why not their nuclear arsenal too?

[YUPPIE]

I can’t post the link right now due to being on a phone, but Putin responded with horrible retaliation. And as I told you all, it was cold blooded murder.

Today the Russians bombed a supermarket in Donetsk, killing 14 civilians and injuring 50+. One of the victims was an infant.

[Edge-]

I can’t post the link right now due to being on a phone, but Putin responded with horrible retaliation. And as I told you all, it was cold blooded murder.

Today the Russians bombed a supermarket in Donetsk, killing 14 civilians and injuring 50+. One of the victims was an infant.

How is this any different than the routine Russian airstrikes on civilian targets in Ukraine, YUPPIE?

Are you forgetting the past few dozen times you've panicked about this?