Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Iphie]

Looks like there's quite some expansion of control in Kursk, Sudzha is reportedly fully under Ukrainian control.

[Northern Goblin]

Did you consult your crystal ball? Read the tea leaves? Drop a quarter in the Zoltar machine?

You're not qualified to make these hyperbolic statements, sorry.

This is actually one of the rare instances where Yuppie is right.

If Russia withdraws from this war, Putin's days are numbered. There's no way he'll be able to survive the mass loss of life, resources and international standing from within the Russian higher ups.

This war has been a disaster for Russia, they're engaging in sunk cost fallacy, hoping to dig themselves out. Only victory will spare him in a "the ends justify the means" otherwise he destroyed Russia on the international stage for nothing.

[Corvus]

The tiktok brigade has been heavily criticised on russian channels for their efforts in Kursk. They have been accused of fleeing rather than fighting and abandoning the conscripts. The commander of them tried to excuse it by saying they didn't fight as they never saw any Ukrainians, as they avoided his men. Obviously not all got away in time.

But they have largely been sitting the war out. Kadyrov needs them to keep his grip on power and is not going to feed them into the meatgrinder and pootie seems okay with that, as long as it keeps Chechnya under control.

While the Ukrainians have maintained very tight opsec, there has still been a ton of images and videos of many, many russian pows, including the kadyrovites. It is safe to say that a few hundred have been captured and a lot of them looked very young. Reminiscent of some of the images coming out of the last days of the Third Reich.

[Jessicka]

One of the more common theories is that they want to seize some Russian land so if they are forced into peace talks down the line, they have some leverage outside reversal of sanctions they have no control over. I mean, say Trump is elected, stops all arms deliveries and starts slowly reversing sanctions. What leverage does Ukraine have in a truce negotiations then?

There's that, but I think just getting it out of a meat grinder is the simpler explanation. Ukraine a much better equipped for a more mobile, open war than the Russians are, especially now they have some better air resources. That's how they kicked Russia out in the first instance, and their best hope of fighting a war in that way is on Russian soil, and there's plenty of it. It sounds like they're much more committed now than the first probing assaults, so who knows where it'll take them, but the airbases and logistical hubs seem the most obvious targets.

[PhaelixWW]

If Russia withdraws from this war, Putin's days are numbered. There's no way he'll be able to survive the mass loss of life, resources and international standing from within the Russian higher ups.

Nah. That may be the likely scenario, but it's hardly the only scenario.

Granted, it would be easier on him if the fighting continued, rather than leaving Ukraine and coming home in defeat, so he's unlikely to ever make that choice, but if he did for some reason, there are ways he could survive the fallout. Most likely, he'd take the gloves off, purge even more of his people, and eliminate the pretense of elected rule.

But yeah, keeping the fighting going would be an easier/safer route for him, so it's unlikely he'd ever get to that point anyway.

[zealo]

there is no future for russia if they surrender, basically. They're in too deep.

Sanctions and losses will destroy them if they get jack all from it. That's what drives them to this madness.

Only if you equate the current kleptocratic regime headed by Putin with Russia itself.

Putin and his fellow cronies may have the walls closing in on them, but russia has had a clear off-ramp since day one of all this crap, and it still does, pull back behind their own side of the border and stay there, and nobody cares what they get up to after that.

[ringpriest]

This is actually one of the rare instances where Yuppie is right.

If Russia withdraws from this war, Putin's days are numbered. There's no way he'll be able to survive the mass loss of life, resources and international standing from within the Russian higher ups.

This war has been a disaster for Russia, they're engaging in sunk cost fallacy, hoping to dig themselves out. Only victory will spare him in a "the ends justify the means" otherwise he destroyed Russia on the international stage for nothing.

Of course there's a way out for Putin: "I single-handedly fought NATO's attack to a draw, forced them to make peace, and ensured the future of Russia". (Ideally without losing any Russian territory in the end... which is likely a motivation behind Ukraine's recent actions.) "Wait, NATO's not actually attacking Russia?" Yes. And? Putin doesn't actually need to fight a war with NATO to claim he's won a war with NATO - he just needs to be able to claim that he did by the standards of Russian media.

Speaking of which, from 4 days ago... "'English Was Heard!': Russia's State Duma Accuses Britain Of Invading Kursk Region".

[Mayhem]

This is actually one of the rare instances where Yuppie is right.

If Russia withdraws from this war, Putin's days are numbered. There's no way he'll be able to survive the mass loss of life, resources and international standing from within the Russian higher ups.

This war has been a disaster for Russia, they're engaging in sunk cost fallacy, hoping to dig themselves out. Only victory will spare him in a "the ends justify the means" otherwise he destroyed Russia on the international stage for nothing.

Are we pretending the multi billionaire and head of state Vladimirovic Putin doesn't have enough knowledge and information about all the russian oligars and mobsters on his hands to feel comfortably secure in his castles?

Yeah, ok.

[Belize]

Does it sound like n words to you again? Is that what you're implying?

I know it's not what you mean, but I just got a chuckle out of imagining Putin throwing around racial slurs in a thickly accented english.

[Endus]

This is actually one of the rare instances where Yuppie is right.

If Russia withdraws from this war, Putin's days are numbered. There's no way he'll be able to survive the mass loss of life, resources and international standing from within the Russian higher ups.

This war has been a disaster for Russia, they're engaging in sunk cost fallacy, hoping to dig themselves out. Only victory will spare him in a "the ends justify the means" otherwise he destroyed Russia on the international stage for nothing.

Where he's wrong, though, is in pretending that a nation that lacks the military strength to keep Ukraine out of their territory or in any way resist their advance into Russia meaningfully and which regularly gets bases annihilated in drone strikes from Ukraine is somehow going to get super angry about this turn in the war and pull out their "real military" and make a counterstrike that everyone knows they're completely incapable of because if they were capable of such an attack, they would've prevented the seizure of Kursk, let alone not let this drag out so long in the first place.

[Jessicka]

Where he's wrong, though, is in pretending that a nation that lacks the military strength to keep Ukraine out of their territory or in any way resist their advance into Russia meaningfully and which regularly gets bases annihilated in drone strikes from Ukraine is somehow going to get super angry about this turn in the war and pull out their "real military" and make a counterstrike that everyone knows they're completely incapable of because if they were capable of such an attack, they would've prevented the seizure of Kursk, let alone not let this drag out so long in the first place.

Nah, any minute now, he's going to get his main.

[Gabriel]

Of course there's a way out for Putin: "I single-handedly fought NATO's attack to a draw, forced them to make peace, and ensured the future of Russia". (Ideally without losing any Russian territory in the end... which is likely a motivation behind Ukraine's recent actions.) "Wait, NATO's not actually attacking Russia?" Yes. And? Putin doesn't actually need to fight a war with NATO to claim he's won a war with NATO - he just needs to be able to claim that he did by the standards of Russian media.

Speaking of which, from 4 days ago... "'English Was Heard!': Russia's State Duma Accuses Britain Of Invading Kursk Region".

Close, but not quite.

He needs to show he is in control of the situation enough so that the media and all of his immediate underlings will still think he is the baddest motherfucker around so that they will then print whatever he says as is the truth and then agree that it is the truth.

[Makabreska]

Are we pretending the multi billionaire and head of state Vladimirovic Putin doesn't have enough knowledge and information about all the russian oligars and mobsters on his hands to feel comfortably secure in his castles?

Yeah, ok.

I'm not sure he would be so eager to test this theory. Prig also felt safe and secure.

[Iphie]

Close, but not quite.

He needs to show he is in control of the situation enough so that the media and all of his immediate underlings will still think he is the baddest motherfucker around so that they will then print whatever he says as is the truth and then agree that it is the truth.

Correct, and that may not be entirely the case anymore, I read somewhere (and of course I don't remember where. or maybe it was on YouTube) that Olga Skabayeva went slightly off script and was questioning...something...about the invasion.

[Mayhem]

I'm not sure he would be so eager to test this theory. Prig also felt safe and secure.

The difference is Prig was protected by Putin, not the other way around.

[YUPPIE]

You all are really underestimating how grave this situation is. It's so bad that Putin has now been able to spin the narrative the "nazis" are coming to destroy Russia, as thousands of Russian civilians by the day are forced to evacuate.

The illusion to the Russian people that there is no war going on has been completely shattered now.

[Doomcookie]

You all are really underestimating how grave this situation is. It's so bad that Putin has now been able to spin the narrative the "nazis" are coming to destroy Russia, as thousands of Russian civilians by the day are forced to evacuate.

The illusion to the Russian people that there is no war going on has been completely shattered now.

It would seem prudent to stop watching so much Russian propaganda. We all get that you really like the guy, but it's time to stop doing their work for them. If you truly ant it to stop, all you need to do... is stop.

[Gabriel]

You all are really underestimating how grave this situation is. It's so bad that Putin has now been able to spin the narrative the "nazis" are coming to destroy Russia, as thousands of Russian civilians by the day are forced to evacuate.

The illusion to the Russian people that there is no war going on has been completely shattered now.

Good. Maybe they'll decide to get rid of Putin finally.

[Makabreska]

The illusion to the Russian people that there is no war going on has been completely shattered now.

Good.

/10 draft skipping ruskies

[Edge-]

The illusion to the Russian people that there is no war going on has been completely shattered now.

Wonderful news, if true!