Oh noooooo.
What happens is some oligarchs strangle Putin and then apologize and draw back their troops and give Ukraine back their territory, including Crimea, and sign treaties to never do anything like that again, reinforced with Ukraine joining NATO, and then they negotiate exactly how much reparations they owe to Ukraine in compensation for their aggression.
Or we keep giving Ukraine materiel as they fight among themselves, and Ukraine can start establishing permanent occupation of parts of a collapsing regime.
As the aforementioned Ukrainian poster has pointed out many times over: while Putin is pure evil, he's not the only bad apple. The oligarchs around him would never make such a compromise to their wealth and power.
Plus you underestimate the deep-rooted nationalism of Russian oligarchs and officials. They would genuinely view compromise as surrendering to the West.
The only reason to take out Putin is to end the farce that is this war, and the endless drain on Russian resources and manpower that it represents. The oligarchs largely couldn't give that much of a shit about Russia, as a nation, they're far more concerned about their own personal wealth and power, and Putin's putting all that at risk. That's why they'd kill him and pull out. They have nothing they can feasibly gain by continuing, because they can't win. They can just piss more materiel down the drain, lose more young Russians, and lose more Russian territory.
Seems like the northern border attack expands. Ukraine vehicles are fighting inside Gir'i.
That's very far away from where I thought everything is happening right now.
Kolotilovka as well and pretty much everywhere else.
Talking about attacks with tanks and other mechanized troops here.
Not full scale, but also not just some 10-20 people making a bit of noise.
Apparently Ukraine infiltrates border villages with mechanized infantry which further destabilizes russian's frontline.
Still not 100% sure what I want to think about this.
While this seems to lead to chaos among the Orcs, it feels like it's doing the same for the Ukrainians. The BTR4s fighting in Gir'i (at least one captured by Russians, probably some other losses as well) feels so far away from where everyone thinks the fighting is currently happening.
Overall it seems like Mordor will be forced to properly defend it's borders now. It's basically swiss cheese as of now.
Last edited by KrayZ33; 2024-08-12 at 08:28 PM.
Russia's logistics are focused on pouring bodies into a meat grinder in Kharkiv, if it wants to deploy those bodies to defend its hundreds of km of border, it needs a rethink on where it's pushing and how it gets its people to those places. That's not something that can happen quickly and it means it can't continue to keep the Kharkiv meatgrinder fed while it does it.
Day 7 of the kursk attack, during which Ukraine has captured more territory than russia has in a year, and didn't take 150,000 casualties doing so.
And the claim is more than 1000 pows have been taken as well. Turns out untrained conscripts with few weapons tend not to want to fight.
A good advantage that Ukraine has from taking a part of Russia is it might discourage their scorched earth tactics. Russia military is weak, and only has an effective strategy of blanket artillery for every problem. The again, we are talking about the same country that set Moscow on fire to deal with Napoleon.
it won't. If Putin indiscriminately gassed, bombed, or torched his own people to route the Ukrainians, he would spin a narrative like his friend Assad who is infamous for doing the same
"These nazis have forced my hand." Rhetoric like that. As long as Putin himself or Moscow isn't in the crossfire, it's all irrelevant to him.
Nah, it won't. There are already complaints on Russian channels that in the evacuated parts of Kursk that the russians are engaged in rampant looting of Russian homes and business. Concern for others is not really a big thing in russia, even towards other russians.
Reminds me of a story told about russia and russians. A russian comes upon a genie who promises him a wish. There is a catch though. The genie says that whatever he gives the man, his neighbour will receive twice as much. Without hesitation, the russian replies "Blind me in one eye."