Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Endus]

for an attack on Moscow, man. The heart of Russia itself. Not anywhere else here. The heart of Russia itself gets a missile lobbed its way and all the citizens living disconnected from the war start panicking and realize nowhere is safe now.

At that point, Putin wouldn't be able to just warn or bluff.

Zelenkskyy should not have stoked the imagination when he said that he intends to hit Russia close to home today.

Putin does not have the tiny little squirrel balls to use nukes. If any of Russia's nukes are even in useable condition given the levels of grift already demonstrated at every other level with all other materiel and munitions.

You're fearmongering over shit Putin is way too chickenshit to ever do.

[Zaydin]

Putin does not have the tiny little squirrel balls to use nukes. If any of Russia's nukes are even in useable condition given the levels of grift already demonstrated at every other level with all other materiel and munitions.

You're fearmongering over shit Putin is way too chickenshit to ever do.

Yeah, I feel like Putler using nukes would be the straw that breaks the camels back and force a NATO intervention since nuclear fallout has a tendency to spread.

See also: fallout from Chernobyl was so bad it was setting off radiation detectors at a NPP in Sweden which is what tipped off the west something was up.

[YUPPIE]

Putin does not have the tiny little squirrel balls to use nukes. If any of Russia's nukes are even in useable condition given the levels of grift already demonstrated at every other level with all other materiel and munitions.

You're fearmongering over shit Putin is way too chickenshit to ever do.

If it’s over an ostensibly petty reason like losing the war then I’d believe you.


But this is Russia being missile bombed directly home here. He would have a legitimate reason to invoke it then. The same goes for the US if Los Angeles was attacked by a superpower.

All in all, it’s not fearmongering.I’m just clarifying to you why Zelenskyy is just bluffing and won’t attack Moscow.

[Santti]

Yeah, I feel like Putler using nukes would be the straw that breaks the camels back and force a NATO intervention since nuclear fallout has a tendency to spread.

See also: fallout from Chernobyl was so bad it was setting off radiation detectors at a NPP in Sweden which is what tipped off the west something was up.

Nukes don't actually give that much radiation (it's still fucking awful, obviously). Especially not the smaller ones employed today. The air detonations clear relatively quickly. I mean, US has done, how many tests now? Hundreds, inside it's own borders? I don't know, but I think those areas are quite okay. Nowhere near as bad as Chernobyl, at any rate.

The nukes were big, because competition with Soviets got out of hand and also, because they were not that accurate, so there was some need for them to clear larger areas. Not so much today.

A quick google search, Chernobyl was 400 times worse in radiation than Hiroshima nuke. The Hiroshima one was 15 kilotons. The tactical nukes are 1 kilotons, which would be the ones used, IF nukes would ever be used (they wont be). The big monstrous ones are going to rot in silos.

[Zaydin]

Nukes don't actually give that much radiation (it's still fucking awful, obviously). Especially not the smaller ones employed today. The air detonations clear relatively quickly. I mean, US has done, how many tests now? Hundreds, inside it's own borders? I don't know, but I think those areas are quite okay. Nowhere near as bad as Chernobyl, at any rate.

The nukes were big, because competition with Soviets got out of hand and also, because they were not that accurate, so there was some need for them to clear larger areas. Not so much today.

A quick google search, Chernobyl was 400 times worse in radiation than Hiroshima nuke.

You are missing the forest for the trees: Russia using tactical nukes would be a massive escalation that NATO would have a hard time ignoring.

[Santti]

You are missing the forest for the trees: Russia using tactical nukes would be a massive escalation that NATO would have a hard time ignoring.

Oh, for sure. They won't ignore it, and Russia knows that. Which is why they won't be used. You can guarantee rich oligarchs want to remain rich. A quick bow out of the war would hurt (they'd still remain rich in a life of luxury), but not nearly as much as resorting to nukes would.

[Karreck]

Oh, for sure. They won't ignore it, and Russia knows that. Which is why they won't be used. You can guarantee rich oligarchs want to remain rich. A quick bow out of the war would hurt (they'd still remain rich in a life of luxury), but not nearly as much as resorting to nukes would.

Nukes would absolutely be the death knell for Russia under Putin / Oligarchs. Putin would have to have more pride than brains to seriously consider launching a nuke.

[PhaelixWW]

I meant they won't just be bluster or fearmongering should Moscow be hit the same way Kyiv has, hence why the US is still reluctant to let it happen.

That's not why the US is still blocking the use of longer-ranged missiles.

An attack directly on Moscow is a justification he can make to his subordinates for the other thing.

How to say "nukes" without saying "nukes". And also stupidly wrong. Do you imagine, in your little fan-fiction world, that his subordinates are itching to "let the nukes fly" and that Putin is holding them back... "for now"?

It's like a bad pulp fiction novel. At least try to come up with better schlock.

for an attack on Moscow, man. The heart of Russia itself. Not anywhere else here. The heart of Russia itself gets a missile lobbed its way and all the citizens living disconnected from the war start panicking and realize nowhere is safe now.

At that point, Putin wouldn't be able to just warn or bluff.

Why do you keep ignoring the fact that Moscow has been attacked many times over since the war began?

Oh, but "the next time is DiFfErEnT!"

Seriously, your delusions are asinine.

[YUPPIE]

moscow's been hit with drones that never killed anyone, never missiles. The car bombing stuff are conspiracy theories.

[PhaelixWW]

moscow's been hit with drones that never killed anyone, never missiles. The car bombing stuff are conspiracy theories.

So your theory is that Putin's breaking point is the health and safety of Russian civilians?

Really?

Lulz.

And the car bomb was very real. Whether you believe his story or not, someone has confessed to doing it on behalf of Ukraine, which makes it anything but a conspiracy theory.


Edit: Here's a graphic from a report done by the BBC almost a year ago:



Do you want to tell us again how attacking Moscow is the-real-honest-to-God red line?

[YUPPIE]

no putin's breaking point would be a missile heading towards a building intended for him and it killing some of his cronies but not him. As I reiterate: he would now know his life is being targeted directly.

as for the moscow thing, i think we'll find out sooner than later expected if zelenskyy isn't kidding. For certainty though we would see global condemnation of Ukraine in a twisted and ironic way. There's no doubt politicians on Putin's paybook will claim Ukraine is escalating and attacking civilians to tank their PR.

[Endus]

no putin's breaking point would be a missile heading towards a building intended for him and it killing some of his cronies but not him. As I reiterate: he would now know his life is being targeted directly.

And?

Launching nukes wouldn't in any way improve anything for him. It would just make him a global menace and provoke a quick shutdown by NATO forces. Putin's not that fuckin' stupid.

If he even has functional nukes, which given the state of all his other munitions, is in no way certain.

You keep trying to make us scared of what Putin might do. None of us are scared. He's a pathetic little tinpot dictator of a collapsing nation that has fallen well behind the developed world.

[Corvus]

Haven't we been through this numerous times before? It's not going to happen.

Firstly, daddy Xi has told pootie it is not to happen. Full stop.

And secondly there is no red button. Heck, pootie doesn't even have the sole decision. Even if a consensus is reached, it still has to go down through the layers and at any point they can just nope it.

[YUPPIE]

Haven't we been through this numerous times before? It's not going to happen.

then answer this: why doesn't ukraine just hit moscow right now as the incursion is digging deeper? What's stopping them?

[draynay]

then answer this: why doesn't ukraine just hit moscow right now as the incursion is digging deeper? What's stopping them?

Would you be interested in purchasing a rock that keeps tigers away?

[PhaelixWW]

no putin's breaking point would be a missile heading towards a building intended for him and it killing some of his cronies but not him. As I reiterate: he would now know his life is being targeted directly.

And yet he's been directly targeted by drones before. No red line crossed.

You're full of shit.

Stop pretending like you have a line on Putin's innermost thoughts. It's disturbing.

as for the moscow thing, i think we'll find out sooner than later expected if zelenskyy isn't kidding.

No, you'll just ignore it like you do everything else that doesn't fit your "1 minute to midnight" doomsday clock scenario. This has played out so many times already.

For certainty though we would see global condemnation of Ukraine in a twisted and ironic way. There's no doubt politicians on Putin's paybook will claim Ukraine is escalating and attacking civilians to tank their PR.

And only the people who slurp up Russian propaganda will believe it, like you.

Only a Russian-propaganda-fed muppet could think that there would be any real "global condemnation of Ukraine" for attacks on legitimate military infrastructure in Moscow.

[Zaydin]

Would you be interested in purchasing a rock that keeps tigers away?

Isn't that a Simpsons bit? Or was it a bear repelling rock in that instance?

[PhaelixWW]

then answer this: why doesn't ukraine just hit moscow right now as the incursion is digging deeper? What's stopping them?

What the fuck have I been saying repeatedly?

They ARE attacking Moscow!

And they have been. For pretty much the entire duration of the war.

Stop pushing false information.

[Endus]

then answer this: why doesn't ukraine just hit moscow right now as the incursion is digging deeper? What's stopping them?

They have been. See above map. At this point, you're just openly gaslighting the entire thread, trying to convince us to be super-duper scared of a little tinpot dipshit.

[PhaelixWW]

They have been. See above map.

And that map was from September 2023. I don't even think they got drones to Moscow for the first time until at least March 2023. So that map only represents maybe the first 1/3 or so of the time in which they've been ramping up attacks on Moscow.

This map is from a WaPo article back in March 2023: