Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Flarelaine]

That's a bit of a misunderstanding of how this works.

While it'st true that the Chinese navy has numbers, it doesn't have tonnage.

As of 2022 the Chinese Navy stands at about 2 million tons of displacement. While the US navy sits at 4.5 million.

Correct.

But most of that tonnage is committed somewhere else. The US can't bring all their carrier groups to the South China sea. Very much because of the structure you mentioned - and because they are possibly the most emphatic way of Uncle Sam saying, "I have my eye on you". Removing them would send the opposite message.

So if there was trouble around Taiwan, it would not be clearcut.

[Sunseeker]

Correct.

But most of that tonnage is committed somewhere else. The US can't bring all their carrier groups to the South China sea. Very much because of the structure you mentioned - and because they are possibly the most emphatic way of Uncle Sam saying, "I have my eye on you". Removing them would send the opposite message.

So if there was trouble around Taiwan, it would not be clearcut.

The US currently has two carrier strike groups deployed near China, one in Okinawa, and one in the Sea of Japan. Three more carrier groups are deployed in the Indian Ocean off the Middle Eastern coast, fairly close by most reckonings. A single carrier group is in San Diego CA and another in Bremerton WA, again, not particularly far away.

So no, the US, as usual, is well positioned to reaspond to Chinese aggression if necessary.

Thats the perks of having 11 carrier strike groups. We are, quite literally, everywhere.

And, quite frankly, we dont need to bring all 11 around. Chinese options for aggression are limited in the Pacific.

[Wilian]

Russia responds by telling Poland that shooting down their drones will be taken as a declaration of war.

Maybe we should tell Russia any more of these continuous sabotages of critical infrastructure and incursions of airspace against Europe is a declaration of war.

[Evil Midnight Bomber]

Maybe we should tell Russia any more of these continuous sabotages of critical infrastructure and incursions of airspace against Europe is a declaration of war.

Allright, Fuck it. Let's just kick this whole thing off and see who blinks.

[Wilian]

Allright, Fuck it. Let's just kick this whole thing off and see who blinks.

The question is, why only Russia should have the right to dictate red lines or what constitutes as escalation? We are at point they are brazenly attacking NATO members through sabotage operations and frequently use airspace to massacare Ukrainians. Where is our line? How many more military installations we allow to be poisoned? How many more critical railway tracks we allow to be dislodged? How many more data cables and underwater gas pipes we allow to be broken? How many more water supply sabotage attempts we look through our fingers? How many more drone incursions into airfields we allow?

What is our line to tell them that enough is enough? Our tolerance seems quite high when we are afraid to even shoot hostile armed targets over our own airspace.

[Evil Midnight Bomber]

The question is, why only Russia should have the right to dictate red lines or what constitutes as escalation? We are at point they are brazenly attacking NATO members through sabotage operations and frequently use airspace to massacare Ukrainians.

I've never said anything about countries not having the right.
I also never said anything about countries not defending their airspace.
What I am opposed to is this proposed policy of immediately destoying any foreign aircraft that crosses into your airspace without question.

[Elder Millennial]

The US currently has two carrier strike groups deployed near China, one in Okinawa, and one in the Sea of Japan. Three more carrier groups are deployed in the Indian Ocean off the Middle Eastern coast, fairly close by most reckonings. A single carrier group is in San Diego CA and another in Bremerton WA, again, not particularly far away.

So no, the US, as usual, is well positioned to reaspond to Chinese aggression if necessary.

Thats the perks of having 11 carrier strike groups. We are, quite literally, everywhere.

And, quite frankly, we dont need to bring all 11 around. Chinese options for aggression are limited in the Pacific.

Another point missed is just how aircraft heavy the US Navy is. The US Navy single handedly operates over 4000 airframes. Which is only 200 less than what the Chinese airforce and navy can put together between the two of them at 4200. Of course, the US Navy's numbers are dispersed all over the world, but the same way there's no chance the Chinese could put most of their aircraft within range of Taiwan. My bet is that between US Air Force and Navy assets between the Pacific, South Korea and Japan, and the Taiwanese themselves, the US would establish air superiority over Taiwan before the Chinese could even hope to relocate enough assets to contest Taiwan.

[Jessicka]

The question is, why only Russia should have the right to dictate red lines or what constitutes as escalation? We are at point they are brazenly attacking NATO members through sabotage operations and frequently use airspace to massacare Ukrainians. Where is our line? How many more military installations we allow to be poisoned? How many more critical railway tracks we allow to be dislodged? How many more data cables and underwater gas pipes we allow to be broken? How many more water supply sabotage attempts we look through our fingers? How many more drone incursions into airfields we allow?

What is our line to tell them that enough is enough? Our tolerance seems quite high when we are afraid to even shoot hostile armed targets over our own airspace.

Those aircraft are, as someone else put when I stated Russian airspace as hostile, into which we fly spy planes and drones, in fact merely unfriendly.

We, and Ukraine, lose that asset when we start actively shooting theirs. There have already been a lot of games between Russian aircraft buzzing, and acting aggressively toward NATO aircraft which have, frankly been spying for Ukraine, if “indirectly”. We do it

You make out like Russia are the only side playing games. They’re not. We play that game against China as well, and who knows who else.

That’s why there’s no inclination to change that mutually beneficial convention of a degree of permissiveness in aerial and naval incursions.

That Russia are flying armed aircraft, missiles, drones, over NATO space to attack Ukraine sucks, but we’ve already seen how much damage falling debris from those do when shot down over Ukraine, Russia, Israel, and anywhere else it happens. It’s a huge risk, it’s a huge risk that you make a mistake, it’s a huge risk you’re taking down something unarmed, manned or whatever else you’re claiming you’re not wanting to do in terms of killing people.

Those red lines are purely rules of engagement, not shooting something you’re not 100% you want to kill.

[Gabriel]

Allright, Fuck it. Let's just kick this whole thing off and see who blinks.

That's the spirit!

[alach]

Revenge of the ZZith? Probably not.

Russians launched counter-offensive in Kursk Oblast, everything goes as planned – Zelenskyy

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has confirmed that Russian troops have launched a counter-offensive in Kursk Oblast.
"The Russians have launched a counter-offensive. This is going in accordance with the Ukrainian plan."

Watch this space..

[Saradain]

Erdogan playing both sides, this time for the west.

https://www.newsweek.com/turkey-erdo...ck-sea-1952090

Turkey's Erdogan Says Russia Must Return Crimea to Ukraine

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who in the past has been called a "dear friend" by Vladimir Putin, dealt a blow to the Russian leader when he advocated the return of annexed Crimea to Ukraine.

"Our support for Ukraine's territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence is unwavering," Erdoğan said in a video message to the Fourth Crimea Platform Leaders Summit on Wednesday, Turkey's state-run Anadolu Agency reported. "The return of Crimea to Ukraine is a requirement of international law."

Turkey, a NATO nation since 1952, has maintained cordial relations with Russia throughout Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, opposing Western sanctions placed on the country. At the same time, Ankara has sent Kyiv armed drones and condemned Russia's decision to invade its neighbor.

Erdoğan's remarks are likely to displease Putin, who annexed the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and held referendums widely seen by the international community as illegal.

Kyiv has said that any peace deal with Russia in the ongoing war must invalidate the September 2022 annexations of its territory—the Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions—and that the Crimean Peninsula must once again be considered part of Ukraine.

Erdoğan said in his video address that Turkey has always been opposed to Russia's annexation of Crimea. He decried the persecution of Crimea's ethnic Tatars since 2014.

"I believe that additional steps will continue to be taken to strengthen the rights of the Crimean Tatar Turks in the upcoming period," he said.

Crimean Tatar Turks should be able to live "freely, securely, and peacefully in their own homeland."

Erdoğan added: "Our sincere wish is for the war to end with a fair and lasting peace based on Ukraine's territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence."

Newsweek contacted the Russian foreign ministry for comment by email.

In October 2020, the Turkish leader said during a joint press briefing with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that his country would never recognize the annexation of Crimea.

"We have and always will support Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, including over Crimea," he said. "Turkey sees Ukraine as a key country for ensuring stability, security, peace and prosperity in our region."

[Flarelaine]

Erdogan playing both sides, this time for the west.

https://www.newsweek.com/turkey-erdo...ck-sea-1952090

Erdogan, being a blody-handed autocrat, would find common cause with Putin. No surprise there.

But as a leader of Turkey, he has reasons to stand with Ukraine. Russia has arguably had the single biggest part in the downfall of Turkey as an empire and even now displays an imperialistic, expansionist attitude that is bound to put them on collision course with Turkey if left unchecked. Beyond that, the Crimean Tatars whose plight Erdogan has just publicly espoused, are of Turkic stock and were Muslim before their integration into Russia (probably well into Soviet times).

[Nymrohd]

Erdogan, being a blody-handed autocrat, would find common cause with Putin. No surprise there.

But as a leader of Turkey, he has reasons to stand with Ukraine. Russia has arguably had the single biggest part in the downfall of Turkey as an empire and even now displays an imperialistic, expansionist attitude that is bound to put them on collision course with Turkey if left unchecked. Beyond that, the Crimean Tatars whose plight Erdogan has just publicly espoused, are of Turkic stock and were Muslim before their integration into Russia (probably well into Soviet times).

More likely he either wants something or internal polls have shown shifting attitude towards Russia among his electorate.

[Wilian]

Erdogan, being a blody-handed autocrat, would find common cause with Putin. No surprise there.

But as a leader of Turkey, he has reasons to stand with Ukraine. Russia has arguably had the single biggest part in the downfall of Turkey as an empire and even now displays an imperialistic, expansionist attitude that is bound to put them on collision course with Turkey if left unchecked. Beyond that, the Crimean Tatars whose plight Erdogan has just publicly espoused, are of Turkic stock and were Muslim before their integration into Russia (probably well into Soviet times).

By integration I hope you mean forced relocation and genocide only to be replaced by Russian colonizer settlers in Crimea. There's a reason only 5% of the region is populated by Crimean tatars at this point.

It's better to use right language when speaking about brutal imperialistic invaders.

[Iphie]

Erdogan, being a blody-handed autocrat, would find common cause with Putin. No surprise there.

But as a leader of Turkey, he has reasons to stand with Ukraine. Russia has arguably had the single biggest part in the downfall of Turkey as an empire and even now displays an imperialistic, expansionist attitude that is bound to put them on collision course with Turkey if left unchecked. Beyond that, the Crimean Tatars whose plight Erdogan has just publicly espoused, are of Turkic stock and were Muslim before their integration into Russia (probably well into Soviet times).

Stalin says 'hi'. Yeah he was one of the worst in this regard.

[ati87]

Erdogan playing both sides, this time for the west.

https://www.newsweek.com/turkey-erdo...ck-sea-1952090

I know this is hard to digest for some people and might be shocking for others, but Erdogan for all of his faults that none of you would ever consider puts his own and turkeys (which is second) interest ahead of the west interest.

Erdogan doesn’t play both sides, he plays his own side, and keeping a cordial relation with Russia helps everyone, including Ukraine.

[Flarelaine]

By integration I hope you mean forced relocation and genocide only to be replaced by Russian colonizer settlers in Crimea. There's a reason only 5% of the region is populated by Crimean tatars at this point.

Yeah, I could have written "until they were ground into little cogs of the Russian state machinery" but the point was more the kinship Turks might feel for Tatars.

[Corvus]

Another 1% increase to russian interest rates, taking it to 19%.

An in depth article on the state of the russian economy from just a few days before the rate rise

https://warontherocks.com/2024/09/ru...-but-how-slow/

They are burning through the liquid assets of their wealth fund but are trying to make out that it is as strong as ever by replacing it with assets that aren't liquid and aren't as valuable as they claim.

[Nymrohd]

Another 1% increase to russian interest rates, taking it to 19%.

An in depth article on the state of the russian economy from just a few days before the rate rise

https://warontherocks.com/2024/09/ru...-but-how-slow/

They are burning through the liquid assets of their wealth fund but are trying to make out that it is as strong as ever by replacing it with assets that aren't liquid and aren't as valuable as they claim.

Give Ukrainians longer range missiles to strike even more refineries and watch the economy collapse speed up immensely.

[PhaelixWW]

Give Ukrainians longer range missiles to strike even more refineries and watch the economy collapse speed up immensely.

I'm of the opinion that they're going to eventually give the green light, but they're just slow-playing it to avoid as much of the PR flak as possible.

The UK has just said that Ukraine can now use the UK's Storm Shadow missiles on targets in Russia. The US could have blocked that use, since some components of those missiles are made in (or at least made from designs given by) the US, but the US has decided not to block it.

Give it a while and we'll probably see more incremental moves towards free use of long-range US missiles for Ukraine.