Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Gabriel]

You've done it now. You'll have Easo in here explaining how the economy is fine because a cafe in the Tzarist equivalent of bum-fuck Alabama hasn't put the price of it's vodka coffee up in the last 3 years.

Xaxaxa decadent pig capitalist needs coffee in his vodka coffee))) less coffee means more vodka tovarich

[Nymrohd]

If only there were some kind of other, non-fossil fuel, perhaps even renewable energy sector they could have pursued and exploited.

And it would be cheaper to give them a cost advantage? No, my intent there was investment in innovation

[Wilian]

Well, sure, hindsight. But I think most people didn't expect Putin to act on grander aims than just Russia, back in the day.

People from high governmental positions to common folk has been calling this out since 2000s (and some like Poland, Estonia & other post Soviet states even earliel) in what used to be russo-sphere because around these part anyone could see what Russia is because they experienced it. Here in Finland it was little different as finlandization was still going strongly in 90s and even 00s as we've found out so it was politically incorrect to call Russia out. Studies& research that really pointed out that Russia is actually bad was politically buried only to resurface now with notes of "We actually did say so"

Even as late as 2008 after Stubb, our current president, held his 08/08/08 speech after invasion of Georgia he was strongly chastised

Absolutely no one in position of power has the right to say Russia somehow blindsided anyone. It was willfull ignorance.

The real crime was in 90s when the west collectively turned their collective gaze away from genocide of Chechens, twice. It set the rules for Russia to behave as they will.

[alach]

Xaxaxa decadent pig capitalist needs coffee in his vodka coffee))) less coffee means more vodka tovarich

Nice one guys.
Worth a chuckle.

[Jessicka]

And it would be cheaper to give them a cost advantage? No, my intent there was investment in innovation

They invested deeply in a status quo, an unsustainable one at that. Irrespective of Russia's allegiances. It was folly to depend on foreign energy, still is, a lesson we should have learned in the oil crisis of the 70s.

[Edge-]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ng-2024-09-16/

President Vladimir Putin on Monday ordered the regular size of the Russian army to be increased by 180,000 troops to 1.5 million active servicemen in a move that would make it the second largest in the world after China's.

In a decree published on the Kremlin's website, Putin ordered the overall size of the armed forces to be increased to 2.38 million people, of which he said 1.5 million should be active servicemen.

Vladimir is seemingly working to absolutely fuck Russia over in the longrun with this kinda dumbass shit.

[Iphie]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ng-2024-09-16/



Vladimir is seemingly working to absolutely fuck Russia over in the longrun with this kinda dumbass shit.

Isn't that almost 2% of the population? that 2% that's not productive...unless at war.

[Makabreska]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ng-2024-09-16/



Vladimir is seemingly working to absolutely fuck Russia over in the longrun with this kinda dumbass shit.

He is not gonna live long enough to see the consequences. All he cares about is to be remembered as a victor. And any future economical issues will be covered by state propaganda.

[Poopymonster]

Isn't that almost 2% of the population? that 2% that's not productive...unless at war.

You gotta figure they have to bring it UP to 2%. After their heavy losses in the Ukraine, those corpses are not productive either.

[Iphie]

He is not gonna live long enough to see the consequences. All he cares about is to be remembered as a victor. And any future economical issues will be covered by state propaganda.

Myeah, but I can imagine a certain amount of de-putinization after his inevitable demise (not giving up state secrets here, he's mortal just like the rest of us), just like with Comrade Stalin.

You gotta figure they have to bring it UP to 2%. After their heavy losses in the Ukraine, those corpses are not productive either.

yeah, true... seems to me this will just turn into another fiasco.

[KrayZ33]

Or Germany knew already what is becoming apparent to the world now. That without the competitive advantage of cheap Russian energy, their manufacturing sector is not adequately competitive.

I'm currently thinking about how this can make sense.
I'm pretty sure both gas and electricity in Germany has always been rather expensive. Electricity almost twice as much, and gas was on the higher end of the spectrum, but not the most expensive.
You can hardly call it a "competitive advantage" - against whom even?

[PhaelixWW]

The real crime was in 90s when the west collectively turned their collective gaze away from genocide of Chechens, twice. It set the rules for Russia to behave as they will.

That's fair, but... just from a geographical standpoint, it would have been far more difficult to oppose Russia in Chechnya. Like with Georgia, the best the West could have realistically done is "punish" Russia, rather than help the Chechens. And that has different long-term fallout (no pun intended). In hindsight, it might have been worth it, but understandably hard to make that call at the time.

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

I'm currently thinking about how this can make sense.
I'm pretty sure both gas and electricity in Germany has always been rather expensive. Electricity almost twice as much, and gas was on the higher end of the spectrum, but not the most expensive.
You can hardly call it a "competitive advantage" - against whom even?

AFAIK, energy pricing in germany is multi-tiered, and has been for a while. On one end you have very high prices for the general public to be milked, and on the other end tightly controlled prices for the most energy-intensive industries to stay competitive in the context of Energy Transition.

[Gabriel]

You gotta figure they have to bring it UP to 2%. After their heavy losses in the Ukraine, those corpses are not productive either.

I disagree, Russia has always been a huge exporter of nitrogen fertilizers.

[Corvus]

Ukrainian drones have hit a massive ammo facility in Tver, russia, that held tens of thousands of tons of ammo of all types

https://x.com/Schizointel/status/183...V3mj34ckA&s=19

FIRMS is showing fires across the entire base and evacuations are taking place nearby. The blast was so big it registered as between a 2.5 to 3.2 earthquake.

[Poopymonster]

I disagree, Russia has always been a huge exporter of nitrogen fertilizers.

MMmm, Corpse Starch.
Even in Death I'm Served.

[Elder Millennial]

Or Germany knew already what is becoming apparent to the world now. That without the competitive advantage of cheap Russian energy, their manufacturing sector is not adequately competitive.

The German energy issues are a byproduct of decades of systemically mismanaged energy policy.

German energy policy is a mess of internal contradictions and systemic failure that was hidden beneath cheap Russian energy.

Russian energy didn't make them competitive, it just allowed them to stay competitive while they made an absolute mess of their energy policy, public investments policy, security policy and infrastructure policy.

[Kaleredar]

The German energy issues are a byproduct of decades of systemically mismanaged energy policy.

German energy policy is a mess of internal contradictions and systemic failure that was hidden beneath cheap Russian energy.

Russian energy didn't make them competitive, it just allowed them to stay competitive while they made an absolute mess of their energy policy, public investments policy, security policy and infrastructure policy.

The band-aid was always going to suck to rip off, but it’s better that it’s happening now than…. Well, I guess just letting Russia do whatever they want to continue to have cheap fuel.


And frankly I think that was part of Russias calculus; that European nations dependent on Russian fuel would look the other way at the invasion of Ukraine, or at least be willing to keep buying it even if they offered token rebukes.

[Elder Millennial]

And frankly I think that was part of Russias calculus; that European nations dependent on Russian fuel would look the other way at the invasion of Ukraine, or at least be willing to keep buying it even if they offered token rebukes.

I'm sorry to say, but I don't think we are out of the woods on that one yet.

I can see a realistic pathway to the Germans just selling out to Russia. There is a strong undercurrent in German politics covering the entire cross section of the German political spectrum from left to right and everything in between that is either fully pro-Russia or just doesn't give a shit and wants to go back to business as usual.

In the right political conditions they could realistically tilt Germany into the "neutral" camp.

Neutral in this sense would refer to Germany joining that Russia sympathetic axis that stretches from Slovakia to Austria.

People forget that Slovakia, Hungary and Austria are mostly just "going along with" EU or NATO policies, through a combination of concessions and coercion, and often intentionally carve themselves exceptions to many policies.

These countries are currently limited in their influence by their own size, but with a country like Germany in their camp they could cause serious damage to any future containment efforts aimed at Russia.

Tilting Germany or France or both could tilt Italy too, which would cause a huge disconnect between the Eastern/Northern European countries and the Central European countries.

People kinda have a tendency to treat Russia's current situation as a permanent forgone conclusion. It is not.

This is an ongoing effort whose success is contingent on about a hundred moving parts in the US, France and Germany. Either of these 3 countries could utterly cripple this effort. Well, the UK could too, but at least the Brits seem remarkably consistent on this one.

[Jessicka]

I'm sorry to say, but I don't think we are out of the woods on that one yet.

I can see a realistic pathway to the Germans just selling out to Russia. There is a strong undercurrent in German politics covering the entire cross section of the German political spectrum from left to right and everything in between that is either fully pro-Russia or just doesn't give a shit and wants to go back to business as usual.

In the right political conditions they could realistically tilt Germany into the "neutral" camp.

Neutral in this sense would refer to Germany joining that Russia sympathetic axis that stretches from Slovakia to Austria.

People forget that Slovakia, Hungary and Austria are mostly just "going along with" EU or NATO policies, through a combination of concessions and coercion, and often intentionally carve themselves exceptions to many policies.

These countries are currently limited in their influence by their own size, but with a country like Germany in their camp they could cause serious damage to any future containment efforts aimed at Russia.

Tilting Germany or France or both could tilt Italy too, which would cause a huge disconnect between the Eastern/Northern European countries and the Central European countries.

People kinda have a tendency to treat Russia's current situation as a permanent forgone conclusion. It is not.

This is an ongoing effort whose success is contingent on about a hundred moving parts in the US, France and Germany. Either of these 3 countries could utterly cripple this effort. Well, the UK could too, but at least the Brits seem remarkably consistent on this one.

The problem Germany have with attempting to undermine things, is that aside from Hungary, pretty much the entire rest of the EU with the UK want to hand Russia its ass. They’ve been dragged kicking and screaming into supplying weapons and equipment, and will continue to be so.