Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Jessicka]

And it would be cheaper to give them a cost advantage? No, my intent there was investment in innovation

They invested deeply in a status quo, an unsustainable one at that. Irrespective of Russia's allegiances. It was folly to depend on foreign energy, still is, a lesson we should have learned in the oil crisis of the 70s.

[Edge-]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ng-2024-09-16/

President Vladimir Putin on Monday ordered the regular size of the Russian army to be increased by 180,000 troops to 1.5 million active servicemen in a move that would make it the second largest in the world after China's.

In a decree published on the Kremlin's website, Putin ordered the overall size of the armed forces to be increased to 2.38 million people, of which he said 1.5 million should be active servicemen.

Vladimir is seemingly working to absolutely fuck Russia over in the longrun with this kinda dumbass shit.

[Iphie]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ng-2024-09-16/



Vladimir is seemingly working to absolutely fuck Russia over in the longrun with this kinda dumbass shit.

Isn't that almost 2% of the population? that 2% that's not productive...unless at war.

[Makabreska]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ng-2024-09-16/



Vladimir is seemingly working to absolutely fuck Russia over in the longrun with this kinda dumbass shit.

He is not gonna live long enough to see the consequences. All he cares about is to be remembered as a victor. And any future economical issues will be covered by state propaganda.

[Poopymonster]

Isn't that almost 2% of the population? that 2% that's not productive...unless at war.

You gotta figure they have to bring it UP to 2%. After their heavy losses in the Ukraine, those corpses are not productive either.

[Iphie]

He is not gonna live long enough to see the consequences. All he cares about is to be remembered as a victor. And any future economical issues will be covered by state propaganda.

Myeah, but I can imagine a certain amount of de-putinization after his inevitable demise (not giving up state secrets here, he's mortal just like the rest of us), just like with Comrade Stalin.

You gotta figure they have to bring it UP to 2%. After their heavy losses in the Ukraine, those corpses are not productive either.

yeah, true... seems to me this will just turn into another fiasco.

[KrayZ33]

Or Germany knew already what is becoming apparent to the world now. That without the competitive advantage of cheap Russian energy, their manufacturing sector is not adequately competitive.

I'm currently thinking about how this can make sense.
I'm pretty sure both gas and electricity in Germany has always been rather expensive. Electricity almost twice as much, and gas was on the higher end of the spectrum, but not the most expensive.
You can hardly call it a "competitive advantage" - against whom even?

[PhaelixWW]

The real crime was in 90s when the west collectively turned their collective gaze away from genocide of Chechens, twice. It set the rules for Russia to behave as they will.

That's fair, but... just from a geographical standpoint, it would have been far more difficult to oppose Russia in Chechnya. Like with Georgia, the best the West could have realistically done is "punish" Russia, rather than help the Chechens. And that has different long-term fallout (no pun intended). In hindsight, it might have been worth it, but understandably hard to make that call at the time.

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

I'm currently thinking about how this can make sense.
I'm pretty sure both gas and electricity in Germany has always been rather expensive. Electricity almost twice as much, and gas was on the higher end of the spectrum, but not the most expensive.
You can hardly call it a "competitive advantage" - against whom even?

AFAIK, energy pricing in germany is multi-tiered, and has been for a while. On one end you have very high prices for the general public to be milked, and on the other end tightly controlled prices for the most energy-intensive industries to stay competitive in the context of Energy Transition.

[Gabriel]

You gotta figure they have to bring it UP to 2%. After their heavy losses in the Ukraine, those corpses are not productive either.

I disagree, Russia has always been a huge exporter of nitrogen fertilizers.

[Corvus]

Ukrainian drones have hit a massive ammo facility in Tver, russia, that held tens of thousands of tons of ammo of all types

https://x.com/Schizointel/status/183...V3mj34ckA&s=19

FIRMS is showing fires across the entire base and evacuations are taking place nearby. The blast was so big it registered as between a 2.5 to 3.2 earthquake.

[Poopymonster]

I disagree, Russia has always been a huge exporter of nitrogen fertilizers.

MMmm, Corpse Starch.
Even in Death I'm Served.

[Elder Millennial]

Or Germany knew already what is becoming apparent to the world now. That without the competitive advantage of cheap Russian energy, their manufacturing sector is not adequately competitive.

The German energy issues are a byproduct of decades of systemically mismanaged energy policy.

German energy policy is a mess of internal contradictions and systemic failure that was hidden beneath cheap Russian energy.

Russian energy didn't make them competitive, it just allowed them to stay competitive while they made an absolute mess of their energy policy, public investments policy, security policy and infrastructure policy.

[Kaleredar]

The German energy issues are a byproduct of decades of systemically mismanaged energy policy.

German energy policy is a mess of internal contradictions and systemic failure that was hidden beneath cheap Russian energy.

Russian energy didn't make them competitive, it just allowed them to stay competitive while they made an absolute mess of their energy policy, public investments policy, security policy and infrastructure policy.

The band-aid was always going to suck to rip off, but it’s better that it’s happening now than…. Well, I guess just letting Russia do whatever they want to continue to have cheap fuel.


And frankly I think that was part of Russias calculus; that European nations dependent on Russian fuel would look the other way at the invasion of Ukraine, or at least be willing to keep buying it even if they offered token rebukes.

[Elder Millennial]

And frankly I think that was part of Russias calculus; that European nations dependent on Russian fuel would look the other way at the invasion of Ukraine, or at least be willing to keep buying it even if they offered token rebukes.

I'm sorry to say, but I don't think we are out of the woods on that one yet.

I can see a realistic pathway to the Germans just selling out to Russia. There is a strong undercurrent in German politics covering the entire cross section of the German political spectrum from left to right and everything in between that is either fully pro-Russia or just doesn't give a shit and wants to go back to business as usual.

In the right political conditions they could realistically tilt Germany into the "neutral" camp.

Neutral in this sense would refer to Germany joining that Russia sympathetic axis that stretches from Slovakia to Austria.

People forget that Slovakia, Hungary and Austria are mostly just "going along with" EU or NATO policies, through a combination of concessions and coercion, and often intentionally carve themselves exceptions to many policies.

These countries are currently limited in their influence by their own size, but with a country like Germany in their camp they could cause serious damage to any future containment efforts aimed at Russia.

Tilting Germany or France or both could tilt Italy too, which would cause a huge disconnect between the Eastern/Northern European countries and the Central European countries.

People kinda have a tendency to treat Russia's current situation as a permanent forgone conclusion. It is not.

This is an ongoing effort whose success is contingent on about a hundred moving parts in the US, France and Germany. Either of these 3 countries could utterly cripple this effort. Well, the UK could too, but at least the Brits seem remarkably consistent on this one.

[Jessicka]

I'm sorry to say, but I don't think we are out of the woods on that one yet.

I can see a realistic pathway to the Germans just selling out to Russia. There is a strong undercurrent in German politics covering the entire cross section of the German political spectrum from left to right and everything in between that is either fully pro-Russia or just doesn't give a shit and wants to go back to business as usual.

In the right political conditions they could realistically tilt Germany into the "neutral" camp.

Neutral in this sense would refer to Germany joining that Russia sympathetic axis that stretches from Slovakia to Austria.

People forget that Slovakia, Hungary and Austria are mostly just "going along with" EU or NATO policies, through a combination of concessions and coercion, and often intentionally carve themselves exceptions to many policies.

These countries are currently limited in their influence by their own size, but with a country like Germany in their camp they could cause serious damage to any future containment efforts aimed at Russia.

Tilting Germany or France or both could tilt Italy too, which would cause a huge disconnect between the Eastern/Northern European countries and the Central European countries.

People kinda have a tendency to treat Russia's current situation as a permanent forgone conclusion. It is not.

This is an ongoing effort whose success is contingent on about a hundred moving parts in the US, France and Germany. Either of these 3 countries could utterly cripple this effort. Well, the UK could too, but at least the Brits seem remarkably consistent on this one.

The problem Germany have with attempting to undermine things, is that aside from Hungary, pretty much the entire rest of the EU with the UK want to hand Russia its ass. They’ve been dragged kicking and screaming into supplying weapons and equipment, and will continue to be so.

[Kralljin]

I can see a realistic pathway to the Germans just selling out to Russia. There is a strong undercurrent in German politics covering the entire cross section of the German political spectrum from left to right and everything in between that is either fully pro-Russia or just doesn't give a shit and wants to go back to business as usual.

Selling out to Russia is a big phrase and something of that magnitude is unlikely.

Federal elections are coming up next year and with the current government being massively unpopular, it is doubtful whether they will gain a 2nd term (Head of the Greens, which is part of the government even called the current coalition a "transition government").
Social democrats have an internal struggle with their current chancellor being very unpopular meanwhile they also ironically field a very popular politician, Boris Pistorius, who also happens to be Minister of Defense (which historically is an unpopular position in Germany) and is very pro-Ukraine.

As things stand now, Germany is heading into a Grand Coalition led by the Conservative Party (CDU) and Social Democrats, or a Coalition with Conservatives, Libertarians (FDP) and Greens.
I'd say the former is more likely because Greens and Libertarians hate their guts past some comparably minor stuff (weed legalization for example).

For the CDU, ties to the West remains pretty fundamental because that's the legacy of Adenauer, their first and Germany's first chancellor.
Germany being the first to just *outright* ditch Ukraine would likely turn Germany into a pseudo pariah state in the West, which is something i do not see a CDU chancellor commit to.
With Scholz out of the way (who seems to have no real idea how to move forward on the Ukraine thing), you could get Pistorius back into the Defense Ministery under a conservative Chancellor who might be more willing to move the needle - i wouldn't expect a complete turnaround but you get the idea.

While there is certainly a pro Russian sentiment in Germany, that's only as big in the east and something i've talked about before, but when push comes to shove, the east gets outnumbered by West Germany. Hard.
The entirety of "East Germany" has like 16M people, meanwhile a state like North Rhine Westphalia (most populated german state) has 18M.
And with the federal elections coming up, the east's opinion will frankly be less of a factor as this year, as this year you had 3 states in the East electing a new parliament.

Again, don't expect a turnaround but Germany won't ditch Ukraine unless the rest of the West is just bailing out, if the US calls it, then Germany will very likely follow, but if the US calls it, that's kind of a game over already.
If i had to guess, Germany will continue at it is doing now, not out of grand strategy but out of sheer indecisiveness and wait how things play out - they won't be the first *major* player to make a big move.

The problem Germany have with attempting to undermine things, is that aside from Hungary, pretty much the entire rest of the EU with the UK want to hand Russia its ass. They’ve been dragged kicking and screaming into supplying weapons and equipment, and will continue to be so.

To my knowledge, some issues don't fall on Germany's feet.
As far as i know France insisted that artillery shells would be produced domestically for Ukraine, only for the EU then fail to meet the criteria multiple times.
Which then turned into a bit of pickle when the US house (or senate, can't recall) then blocked Ukraine aid for months.

[Elegiac]

That's fair, but... just from a geographical standpoint, it would have been far more difficult to oppose Russia in Chechnya. Like with Georgia, the best the West could have realistically done is "punish" Russia, rather than help the Chechens. And that has different long-term fallout (no pun intended). In hindsight, it might have been worth it, but understandably hard to make that call at the time.

It’s also hard to say whether or not the present state of affairs even -was- the result of a failure of external parties to act. Maybe there could have been more done regarding the pillaging of the post-Soviet economy by oligarchs which helped destroy confidence in democracy, to say nothing of a lack of sanctions over certain incidents, but it does seem to be a matter of internal politics needing to play out.

One might as well say other parties failed to act to stop the US’ invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq.

[Lynarii]

Sure, but the warning signs were always there. Taking their fossil fuels and laundering their money should have been done with a lot more caution. But our own systems are too susceptible to meddling from rich foreign despots. What's worse is the refusal to learn from it, when we can see Emirates, Saudis and so on using the same playbook.

That's not a bug, it's a feature. Look at Farange, he only even ran for office in order to collect bribes. Everyone knows it, and he got elected primarily so people would have someone they know they can bribe at any point in that seat.

Western democracies are pretty open about being up for sale.

[Elder Millennial]

The problem Germany have with attempting to undermine things, is that aside from Hungary, pretty much the entire rest of the EU with the UK want to hand Russia its ass. They’ve been dragged kicking and screaming into supplying weapons and equipment, and will continue to be so.

Austria is hard in the "We love Russian money, but going to play along with the EU majority opinion as we don't want to turn them on us" ...in exchange they get all sorts of little carve outs to keep doing business with Russia.

Like Raiffeisenbank which is one of Russia's biggest bank and handles a lot of its international transactions. Raiffeisenbank was exempted from the list of companies sponsoring the Russian war in exchange for Austria consenting to the 12th sanction package back in December last year.

In March the US Treasury tried to force Raiffeisenbank to leave Russia or cut back it's operations, but as of today it has done neither.

Slovakia is another one that is mostly in the same camp as Austria, but a bit more vocal about forcing Ukraine into a negotiated surrender. They are somewhere between Hungary's Russian boot licking and Austria's "We don't really care" position.

All 3 of these mostly go along with the EU and NATO because they are just too small to risk raising too much of a fuss...except Hungary of course which has basically lost the plot completely, Austria and Slovakia are being a bit more pragmatic.

Bulgaria is another one where pro-Russian sympathies still run deep.