Russian invasion of Ukraine

[PhaelixWW]

Western democracies are pretty open about being up for sale.

I think the implication that modern politicians are "for sale" is absolutely grotesque.





It's "for rent" at best.

[Elder Millennial]

Selling out to Russia is a big phrase and something of that magnitude is unlikely

I hope you are right, but I have grown very very skeptical of German politics, which seem to be defined by either making the absolute worst decisions with total confidence or a near complete inability to do anything. This has been a defining feature of German politics for the whole of the 21st century.

But still, I could see a "let's be neutral out of practicality and realpolitik" turn in Germany. Just enough to not be a full pro-Russia pariah state, but enough to start demanding the lifting of specific sanctions while withdrawing further aid to Ukraine.

The near psychotic obsession Germans have with penny pinching might heavily contribute to the latter.

[alach]

It sounds more concrete than donald trumps "concept of a plan", or Peter Quills 'Part of Plan."

Ukraine's Zelenskiy says 'victory plan' is ready

Sept 18 (Reuters) - President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Wednesday that his "Victory Plan", intended to bring peace to Ukraine while keeping the country strong and avoiding all "frozen conflicts", was now complete after much consultation.
...
While providing daily updates on the plan's preparation, Zelenskiy has given few clues of the contents, indicating only that it aims to create terms acceptable to Ukraine, now locked in conflict with Russia for more than 2-1/2 years.
"Today, it can be said that our victory plan is fully prepared. All the points, all key focus areas and all necessary detailed additions of the plan have been defined," Zelenskiy said in his nightly video address.
"The most important thing is the determination to implement it.
There was, Zelenskiy said, no alternative to peace, "no freezing of the war or any other manipulations that would simply postpone Russian aggression to another stage".

Guess we all have to wait awhile before finding out what the plan is. Hes said to submit it at the next UN general assembly, IIRC.

Also, just the headline should be enough,

Exclusive: Ammunition from India enters Ukraine, raising Russian ire


*smiley face*

[Gorsameth]

It sounds like such a PR thing that is almost certainly going to backfire when you can't realise it.
There is no simple, or complicated for that matter, 'victory plan' that you can just follow.

[Azadina]

The only victory plan that'll work is to just keep killing the terrorist orcs, until they fuck off. Half a million is clearly not enough. Perhaps few million would be?

[Iphie]

The only victory plan that'll work is to just keep killing the terrorist orcs, until they fuck off. Half a million is clearly not enough. Perhaps few million would be?

Nah, come back when we have more than 27 million casualties on the russian side, that's, after all, what Stalin's number is to defend the USSR. (for the record that would be disastrous for the russian demographics....I mean even more than these 600k + already are, I think we can then easily say that extinction of russia is not impossible)

[Azadina]

Nah, come back when we have more than 27 million casualties on the russian side, that's, after all, what Stalin's number is to defend the USSR. (for the record that would be disastrous for the russian demographics....I mean even more than these 600k + already are, I think we can then easily say that extinction of russia is not impossible)

It's a cliche answer, but I think times were different, even for Mordor. Sauron just doesn't have the power that Morgoth did. Funny business aside, I'm gonna asspull a number and say I don't think they can do 5 million before something cracks. Whether internal strife gets to the point of calling it, or they just do fuck off and agree to a peace deal before that.

[Jessicka]

It's a cliche answer, but I think times were different, even for Mordor. Sauron just doesn't have the power that Morgoth did. Funny business aside, I'm gonna asspull a number and say I don't think they can do 5 million before something cracks. Whether internal strife gets to the point of calling it, or they just do fuck off and agree to a peace deal before that.

Times were different, they were defending an existential war, they expected to lose people they knew. Now they're prosecuting a war nobody in Russia particularly gives a shit about the outcome, so long as it doesn't come home to them. The threshold will be significantly lower in that respect in terms of people noticing people they knew aren't there anymore.

[Kralljin]

But still, I could see a "let's be neutral out of practicality and realpolitik" turn in Germany. Just enough to not be a full pro-Russia pariah state, but enough to start demanding the lifting of specific sanctions while withdrawing further aid to Ukraine.

Again, i don't see that happening because that would mean Germany has to cut their Ukraine aid down to 0 to pretend that they're neutral, which in itself would already be a massive sea change as Germany is, in absolute terms, still a massive contributor to Ukraine.

And honestly, unless France's aid is mainly wrapped up in the EU funds, this is the major European power people should be talking about when it comes to not really delivering on Ukraine aid.

[Corvus]

Nah, come back when we have more than 27 million casualties on the russian side, that's, after all, what Stalin's number is to defend the USSR. (for the record that would be disastrous for the russian demographics....I mean even more than these 600k + already are, I think we can then easily say that extinction of russia is not impossible)

It's already disastrous for them. They just reported their lowest number of births in 25 years, and given those were official russian figures, it could be worse than they are admitting. The last time it was this low was 1999, when they were having problems.

There is a reason the official Kremlin policy is that women shouldn't be working but be pregnant in the kitchen, and if husbands have to encourage their wives to get pregnant, that is fine.

[Ripster42]

Nah, come back when we have more than 27 million casualties on the russian side, that's, after all, what Stalin's number is to defend the USSR. (for the record that would be disastrous for the russian demographics....I mean even more than these 600k + already are, I think we can then easily say that extinction of russia is not impossible)

27mil is only a bit less than 1/5 of the entire RF population. Men, women, and children. The RF has about 60mil fewer people than the USSR had when stalin was alive, when the demo pyramid actually looked like a pyramid and not a pillar. There's effectively no way the RF can hold up losing 27mil. They'd be toast long before that happened as there'd only be cripples and retirees left to staff businesses.

[Iphie]

It's already disastrous for them. They just reported their lowest number of births in 25 years, and given those were official russian figures, it could be worse than they are admitting. The last time it was this low was 1999, when they were having problems.

There is a reason the official Kremlin policy is that women shouldn't be working but be pregnant in the kitchen, and if husbands have to encourage their wives to get pregnant, that is fine.

Ah, yes, the good old domestic SA that is no longer criminal.

27mil is only a bit less than 1/5 of the entire RF population. Men, women, and children. The RF has about 60mil fewer people than the USSR had when stalin was alive, when the demo pyramid actually looked like a pyramid and not a pillar. There's effectively no way the RF can hold up losing 27mil. They'd be toast long before that happened as there'd only be cripples and retirees left to staff businesses.

Yes, quite aware, I'm just implying poo-tin doesn't have the foresight.

[KrayZ33]

The problem Germany have with attempting to undermine things, is that aside from Hungary, pretty much the entire rest of the EU with the UK want to hand Russia its ass. They’ve been dragged kicking and screaming into supplying weapons and equipment, and will continue to be so.

If Germany is being dragged screaming... what is France doing or for example Italy or Greece.
Germany provided like 2-3x more than them added together - with military aid alone - excluding humantarian or financial aid (which would make the difference even bigger by a multitude), and last time I checked, Germany's GDP isn't 3x the amount.


Do people even realise how much money goes into the Ukraine from Germany's side. And how many refugees are in Germany right now compared to, again - France or Italy?
Hate to redirect the anger, but I used to say this very early on in the war already, some nations really liked to talk big and blame Germany, even though they themselves provided very little/almost nothing.

I wish some of these other countries would have had put as much effort into providing aid as they were putting effort into trying to find the blame somewhere else.

[alach]

It sounds like such a PR thing that is almost certainly going to backfire when you can't realise it.
There is no simple, or complicated for that matter, 'victory plan' that you can just follow.

It was the main reasons the congressional republicans held up aid for Ukraine for nearly half a year. They were heard whining and moaning how they keep throwing money away without a plan. Or how it would be great to see a plan before we hand over more money in aid. Theres many a news clip out there with them asking for a plan.
Well, Zelensky spent a few months, and now has a plan to show them so they don't have an excuse next time.
Or they were all lying about it and actually want to help the kremlin.

[Specialka]

If Germany is being dragged screaming... what is France doing or for example Italy or Greece.
Germany provided like 2-3x more than them added together - with military aid alone - excluding humantarian or financial aid (which would make the difference even bigger by a multitude), and last time I checked, Germany's GDP isn't 3x the amount.


Do people even realise how much money goes into the Ukraine from Germany's side. And how many refugees are in Germany right now compared to, again - France or Italy?
Hate to redirect the anger, but I used to say this very early on in the war already, some nations really liked to talk big and blame Germany, even though they themselves provided very little/almost nothing.

I wish some of these other countries would have had put as much effort into providing aid as they were putting effort into trying to find the blame somewhere else.

Since Germany were the one that was sucking so much of that russian gaz, I would say that it is deserved and that they should put that much effort compared to others to atone.

[KrayZ33]

Since Germany were the one that was sucking so much of that russian gaz, I would say that it is deserved and that they should put that much effort compared to others to atone.

Lol.
What a stupid take. Before the war it was just "gas" as any other gas from any other country

Especially if you consider that countries like Austria and Italy *still* take Russian gas, same for France, while Turkey is laundering it for the EU in general.

[Jessicka]

If Germany is being dragged screaming... what is France doing or for example Italy or Greece.
Germany provided like 2-3x more than them added together - with military aid alone - excluding humantarian or financial aid (which would make the difference even bigger by a multitude), and last time I checked, Germany's GDP isn't 3x the amount.


Do people even realise how much money goes into the Ukraine from Germany's side. And how many refugees are in Germany right now compared to, again - France or Italy?
Hate to redirect the anger, but I used to say this very early on in the war already, some nations really liked to talk big and blame Germany, even though they themselves provided very little/almost nothing.

I wish some of these other countries would have had put as much effort into providing aid as they were putting effort into trying to find the blame somewhere else.

As much as they've given, Germany were very vocal about not doing it. That's what people remember, not how much they've eventually given which is thankfully a lot. But that's kind of the point I was getting at, I don't think there is much risk that Germany won't continue to provide aid. I get that probably for the local audience, there is a need to show some restraint, but globally it just hasn't been a great look. In the UK the sense is that as much as we're giving, we should do more and we should be letting them use the Storm Shadows freely, and nobody really gets why not, through that lens Germany's words seem off.

[Gorsameth]

It was the main reasons the congressional republicans held up aid for Ukraine for nearly half a year. They were heard whining and moaning how they keep throwing money away without a plan. Or how it would be great to see a plan before we hand over more money in aid. Theres many a news clip out there with them asking for a plan.
Well, Zelensky spent a few months, and now has a plan to show them so they don't have an excuse next time.
Or they were all lying about it and actually want to help the kremlin.

Oh I know this one.
Its the latter.

[Kralljin]

Since Germany were the one that was sucking so much of that russian gaz, I would say that it is deserved and that they should put that much effort compared to others to atone.

This frankly disregards two massive factors.

1. Germany & Military (aid) / deliveries
This topic used to be frankly quite the pickle because Germany usually did not want to deliver arms into any conflict zones (and Ukraine is de facto a conflict zone since 2014) and there has been usually quite the song and dance whether Germany sells weapons to a specific country that are outside of NATO / EU.
It's a reason why a lot of arms manufacturers aren't terribly fond of working with German companies because the moment a German company is involved, the German Government can veto the sale as long as German made products / systems are involved.

This should highlight that Germany isn't just purely economically driven but does take morals and ethics into account when it comes to this stuff and the turnaround that Germany made from arguing about delivering something pathetic as helmets to delivering Main Battle Tanks is significant.

2. Russia
I've talked about this previously because the "German experience" with Russia (or Soviet Union) heavily deviates from that of other states, mainly the Baltic one.
Germany has generally pursued a policy of "Change through Trade", which they established back in the 70's which arguably laid the groundwork for Russia / SU giving their okay for German reunification.
With a more neutral or hawkish attitude towards Russia / SU, i am not sure if this had happened, so it's not exactly a surprise why Germany stuck with trade relations with Russia, because it has quite the significant historic background.
A small side note, look up the stance of France and UK regarding Reunification, how these two steadfast cornerstones of the West supported Germany.
They actually opposed reunification once it became a realistic goal.

So again, expecting Germany to be outright hawkish towards Russia is ignorant of their history, because militarism in general isn't its style and especially contrary when it concerns Russia.
Don't me get wrong, economics are a big factor here, but this portrayal of Germany as this purely, self interested economic actor is something i heavily disagree with because the way Germany acts (towards Russia) has its roots in history and more specifically, how it overcame a literal scar going right through their country.

And in this regard, let's not forget that Germany wasn't the sole country taking a rather weak stance against Russia.
Who stalled Georgia's & Ukraine's involvement with NATO in 2008? Sure, Germany...and France.
Who said in 2012 "The Cold war is over" during a presidential debate?
Who drew red lines during the Syrian civil war against Russia's ally, only to then not enforce them?
Was it just Germany who sat beside in 2014 when Russia took Crimea?
Did every NATO / EU nation start to arm up Ukraine 2014-2022 except Germany?

For what it's worth, i think Germany has some lenient circumstances when it comes to dealing with Russia (or formulating a security related foreign policy in general), so what's the excuse of nations like France?

[Wilian]

If Germany is being dragged screaming... what is France doing or for example Italy or Greece.
Germany provided like 2-3x more than them added together - with military aid alone - excluding humantarian or financial aid (which would make the difference even bigger by a multitude), and last time I checked, Germany's GDP isn't 3x the amount.


Do people even realise how much money goes into the Ukraine from Germany's side. And how many refugees are in Germany right now compared to, again - France or Italy?
Hate to redirect the anger, but I used to say this very early on in the war already, some nations really liked to talk big and blame Germany, even though they themselves provided very little/almost nothing.

I wish some of these other countries would have had put as much effort into providing aid as they were putting effort into trying to find the blame somewhere else.

Germany contributes a lot on pure numbers, not per capita but yes on pure numbers. Adjusted to GDP they are at a pitiful 13th place in terms of aid within Europe, if they contributed as much as say Finland in share of GDP they'd have to almoust triple it. Not to mention, what give, they were practically strongarmed into doing it and they remain one of the countries that again and again resist sending the sort of aid that could have impact. They deserve credit for being largest individual contributor in Europe eventually but they also deserve all the PR slapping over being the ones that fought every single step of the way for it A) not be so and B) standing way of every new step and C) Punching several times beneath their weight. Right now we are at the step of long range missile weaponry they stubbornly refuse to give in fear of eSCaLaTion.

- - - Updated - - -

For what it's worth, i think Germany has some lenient circumstances when it comes to dealing with Russia (or formulating a security related foreign policy in general), so what's the excuse of nations like France?

Germany, like many other European countries do not have lenient circumstances, only willful ignorance over hopes of economic advantage (that almoust led into energy vassalage). And there's no excuse for France, every hour of inaction and insufficient contribution should be blasted.