Russian invasion of Ukraine

[PhaelixWW]

Russia will forgive his debt if he gives them Ukraine.

It's not his to give.

I can hear the Snake Island sequel right now: "American dictator, go fuck yourself!"

[postman1782]

It's not his to give.

I can hear the Snake Island sequel right now: "American dictator, go fuck yourself!"

If he cuts them off like he wants to, they pretty much fold without our help.

[Draco-Onis]

Call it a cope but taking a step back on this: What would Trump gain from this?

Some people might say that Trump is basically a Manchurian candidate for the Russians but what could they possibly have on him that he just does what they want?
Trump basically got away with everything and holds way more hard as well as soft power that Putin could dream off, so what could the Russians even do if Trump were to "turn" on them?
Ukraine isn't Gaza, an area that holds neither strategic nor economic relevance, it has a ton of resources.

And that's the crux, Trump seems to think very transactionally, if Ukraine is willing to promise their abundance of natural resource to Trump (reminder, area around Crimea seems to hold some gas as well as oil which US companies were working on until they got kicked out) they could make him an enticing deal.
Trump sure as shit doesn't give a shit about escalation or other potential risks, he just dislikes that the US seemingly gives aid and weapons to Ukraine pro bono.

Naturally, whoring yourself out to Trump isn't great but the alternative is that he will just let Putin do his thing, which very likely be worse under every circumstance.
Issue here might Trump's short attention span and would call it off if results aren't there within months, i guess.
It would also completely flip the script domestically if Trump were to suddenly double down on Ukrainian aid in order to secure american interests.

There's a thing that got lost on what Putin has on Trump, he loves Putin well as much as a narcissist can. Trump idolize him thinks of thinks of him as the strong man he wants to be. There's no dictator out there that Trump holds in higher regards than Putin and that's been for a long time even before he was president. Trump would do it just to get a pat on the back and some nice words.

He has single handedly turned the entire image of Russia with the republican base and congress. We have polls showing that Putin is more popular than Biden and people wearing pro Putin T shirts. I don't think people grasp just show deep Trump is when it comes to Putin.

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If he cuts them off like he wants to, they pretty much fold without our help.

That's the game right there without US support Ukraine is done.

[Belize]

Trump owes over $400 million to Russia right now. That is what he gains.

How much are the average GOP elected official making from their stocks/lobby from the US military industrial complex?

There are more actors here than just Trump and Russia

[Draco-Onis]

How much are the average GOP elected official making from their stocks/lobby from the US military industrial complex?

There are more actors here than just Trump and Russia

Israel's genocide is far more lucrative, setting the middle east on fire will keep them well fed for decades.

[Belize]

Israel's genocide is far more lucrative, setting the middle east on fire will keep them well fed for decades.

Porque no los dos.

Have you met an American company that's said "eh, we'll skip making ludicrous amounts of money, we have enough for now"

[Kralljin]

Russia will forgive his debt if he gives them Ukraine.

A debt has no meaning if you have no means to collect it.

There's a thing that got lost on what Putin has on Trump, he loves Putin well as much as a narcissist can.

Again, it comes down on whether Ukraine makes an appealing offer to Trump, i doubt he'd choose Putin over money.

Israel's genocide is far more lucrative, setting the middle east on fire will keep them well fed for decades.

I think the Ukraine war is really your "standard" war, whereas the middle east thing still has some guerrilla aspects, which makes it far less lucrative.

Are we arguing about tanks destroyed, artillery rounds fired per day in the middle east? Not really, whereas in Ukraine it's a constant topic.
And those things have a price tag to them.

[diller]

I understand a lot of you seem to be in the denial phase of this but let's face the facts. Trump will force Ukraine to eat crow and settle with Russia

I don't feel like I'm in denial but I don't see Ukraine agreeing to that and Trump can't force them to do anything.

What I can see (not what I want) is a cease-fire where both countries give back currently occupied territories except for the Crimean Peninsula - so basically back to how it was before the current invasion.

I do not see any clause like Ukraine cannot join NATO/EU as a possibility though.

[Wilian]

I understand a lot of you seem to be in the denial phase of this but let's face the facts. Trump will force Ukraine to eat crow and settle with Russia, you have better odds of winning the jackpot in the US lottery than finding a spine in congress. The republican party has pledged unbridled fealty to the fuhrer not to mention most of their focus right now is on Israel. Trump and republicans wants to annex the West Bank and Gaza, without US leadership Europe will focus inwards. They do not have the capacity to provide Ukraine with arms and build up their own armed forces with America in retreat.

Some of you may think Trump can't pull out of NATO because congress passed a law well I got news for you. A law is only worth the paper it is written on if there are people to enforce it, at the moment there isn't a political body that would force him to do so and that is keeping EU leaders up at night. At the end of the day it's about self preservation European leaders have been in denial and squandered Biden's 4 years now the chickens are coming home to roost.

In this vacuum China will have a field day as power abhors vacuum, this is continuing the downward trend of American power. We will still have the most guns but as with most empires they fall from the rot from within and our rot is going to last way longer than Trump's 4 years. Democrats are looking to be out of power for the next ten years, Europe will be wise to steel themselves act like American support no longer exist and plan accordingly.

There's no denial about Trump's ill effect on war, anyone can see it. Not that our (west) support has been stellar in any case but it is a horrible thing to happen for Ukraine that is already struggling hard on multitude of fronts. They'll not be forced by Trump to sign such a deal however, at least not currently when there's still a slight chance Europe actually picks up it's support as it should. Germany's new potential chancellor has been giving some hopeful signs after Chamberscholz and there's been lot of investment into armament facilities with support from countries like Finland that already has some of the strongest ammunition manufacturing in Europe and Norway that is willing to fund entire lines of production.

Two questions determine whetever Ukraine can keep fighting and for how long; European newfound effort (under Polish and Nordic lead) as well as Ukrainian mobilization efforts, not Trump.

[Draco-Onis]

Porque no los dos.

Have you met an American company that's said "eh, we'll skip making ludicrous amounts of money, we have enough for now"

You are missing the other factor, after the war rebuilding Ukraine is going to bring a king's ransom. I know it got lost because of the election but there was an interview with republican Senator Lindsey Graham basically salivating at all the resources that can be looted after the war ends.

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Again, it comes down on whether Ukraine makes an appealing offer to Trump, i doubt he'd choose Putin over money.

Ukraine is in no position to make offers, the US has them by the balls they will be forced to make peace then the US will proceed to collect.

I think the Ukraine war is really your "standard" war, whereas the middle east thing still has some guerrilla aspects, which makes it far less lucrative.

Are we arguing about tanks destroyed, artillery rounds fired per day in the middle east? Not really, whereas in Ukraine it's a constant topic.
And those things have a price tag to them.

The middle east has been begging for more of everything ever since Israel's aggression, even US allies are uneasy and want more arms to defend themselves. There's also the major factor that Israel has heavy support from the evangelical wing of the republican party. They see Israel's downfall as the key to bring about the apocalypse, in order to do so they need to make the region as volatile as possible.

Israel's next move will be annexing the west bank and Gaza, there are over 3 million Palestinians to slaughter and ethnically cleanse plenty of money to be made from that and the fallout.

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There's no denial about Trump's ill effect on war, anyone can see it. Not that our (west) support has been stellar in any case but it is a horrible thing to happen for Ukraine that is already struggling hard on multitude of fronts. They'll not be forced by Trump to sign such a deal however, at least not currently when there's still a slight chance Europe actually picks up it's support as it should. Germany's new potential chancellor has been giving some hopeful signs after Chamberscholz and there's been lot of investment into armament facilities with support from countries like Finland that already has some of the strongest ammunition manufacturing in Europe and Norway that is willing to fund entire lines of production.

Two questions determine whetever Ukraine can keep fighting and for how long; European newfound effort (under Polish and Nordic lead) as well as Ukrainian mobilization efforts, not Trump.

It is my understanding that currently Europe does not have the capacity to produce the amount of munitions and weapons Ukraine needs and rebuild their own armed forces. I am open to being wrong but Europe has not switched to a war footing to prepare and a lot of armies need rebuilding to be able to stand in a world without NATO.

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I don't feel like I'm in denial but I don't see Ukraine agreeing to that and Trump can't force them to do anything.

What I can see (not what I want) is a cease-fire where both countries give back currently occupied territories except for the Crimean Peninsula - so basically back to how it was before the current invasion.

I do not see any clause like Ukraine cannot join NATO/EU as a possibility though.

Without US support Ukraine will eventually fall so it's either take a bad deal or lose more territory or everything in the long term then have to take an even worse deal. If you look at it from that perspective Ukraine has no choice whatsoever.

[Kralljin]

Ukraine is in no position to make offers, the US has them by the balls they will be forced to make peace then the US will proceed to collect.

I disagree on the basis that Putin main goal is to have the US leave Europe, so i doubt Putin will allow that US companies will exploit Ukraine's natural resources.

Israel's next move will be annexing the west bank and Gaza, there are over 3 million Palestinians to slaughter and ethnically cleanse plenty of money to be made from that and the fallout.

Unless a full scale war erupts, there's not that much money to be made.

Ukraine is a traditional land war by comparison.

[diller]

Without US support Ukraine will eventually fall so it's either take a bad deal or lose more territory or everything in the long term then have to take an even worse deal. If you look at it from that perspective Ukraine has no choice whatsoever.

I don't think so, however if the US would somehow disallow Europeans countries from provide US made weapons to Ukraine I could see it, but the US itself pulling support wouldn't matter that much.

[Draco-Onis]

I disagree on the basis that Putin main goal is to have the US leave Europe, so i doubt Putin will allow that US companies will exploit Ukraine's natural resources.

You are thinking too much on the short term, Putin has time on his side the war has been catastrophic for Russia if they keep the land they take now and get time to rebuild that's a huge win.

Unless a full scale war erupts, there's not that much money to be made.

Ukraine is a traditional land war by comparison.

Over the course of the war US aid has amounted for 54-60 billion dollars, the US has spent 18 billion dollars on Israel alone. If you take into account the new arms deals with other Saudi sates it easily eclipses Ukraine. Also unlike Ukraine the non Israeli purchases aren't "loans", Saudi Arabia has nuclear ambition and they were this close to get there last Trump terms. There's a lot more at play here including resources by settling the war in Ukraine the US gets to have its cake and eat it too from Trump's perspective.

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I don't think so, however if the US would somehow disallow Europeans countries from provide US made weapons to Ukraine I could see it, but the US itself pulling support wouldn't matter that much.

I don't think it's realistic to think that the EU will fund the Ukraine war alone, that would cause too much domestic upheaval in the long term. However I hope you are right and I am wrong.

[Kralljin]

You are thinking too much on the short term, Putin has time on his side the war has been catastrophic for Russia if they keep the land they take now and get time to rebuild that's a huge win.

Short term?
US won't fuck off from Europe even if Ukraine matter is settled, favoring Russia.
That's the long game Putin is playing.

Point is that they won't make a buck in Ukraine if Russia controls it because Russia doesn't want the US in Europe.

[Draco-Onis]

Short term?
US won't fuck off from Europe even if Ukraine matter is settled, favoring Russia.
That's the long game Putin is playing.

Point is that they won't make a buck in Ukraine if Russia controls it because Russia doesn't want the US in Europe.

I don't think we are in a reality where you can claim anything is definite. Trump wants to deport around 20 million people costing lowball 1 trillion dollars, we are going to be stuck with our own self made domestic messes for quite a while.

[Kralljin]

I don't think we are in a reality where you can claim anything is definite.

I started off with saying this might a cope, so...

Trump wants to deport around 20 million people costing lowball 1 trillion dollars, we are going to be stuck with our own self made domestic messes for quite a while.

I think there's a slight difference between the US leaving Europe and Trump's lofty campaign promises.
On the former, he hasn't even made any claims about his intentions for the US to leave Europe, so i'd say we cross that bridge once we get there.

[Kaleredar]

I don't think we are in a reality where you can claim anything is definite. Trump wants to deport around 20 million people costing lowball 1 trillion dollars, we are going to be stuck with our own self made domestic messes for quite a while.

The saving grace is to remember that trump is massively incompetent and surrounds himself with people chosen only for blind loyalty or petty self-interest, not acumen or skill.

[Draco-Onis]

I started off with saying this might a cope, so...

I think there's a slight difference between the US leaving Europe and Trump's lofty campaign promises.
On the former, he hasn't even made any claims about his intentions for the US to leave Europe, so i'd say we cross that bridge once we get there.

No he won't officially leave Europe, I am saying the US is about to embark on a road of so much domestic turmoil that Europe will be an afterthought. I know you are coping but I am telling you don't hope expect the worse of all options.

[Jessicka]

I don't think we are in a reality where you can claim anything is definite. Trump wants to deport around 20 million people costing lowball 1 trillion dollars, we are going to be stuck with our own self made domestic messes for quite a while.

There is always money for bombs.

As unpredictable as Trump is, I think he’d wait until the end of his term before any plans to cut and run, same as Afghanistan, so it doesn’t look like it’s his problem and doesn’t become something he has to deal with.

Europe will be fine, Russia has broken itself on Ukraine, and there’s been plans for closer European defence policy for years that only failed to materialise because NATO and US promises.

We all know Russia, if it accepts a peace deal, will only use the time to rearm and rebuild to go again, and promises not to ‘join’ NATO don’t mean they can’t form other pacts with member nations.

I just don’t think Russia would make a deal anyway, so it’s a moot point. Putin is too far gone on sunk costs, if he was about making a deal he’d have done it years ago when he had to fall back and regroup.

[Draco-Onis]

The saving grace is to remember that trump is massively incompetent and surrounds himself with people chosen only for blind loyalty or petty self-interest, not acumen or skill.

Hence the massive domestic turmoil and chaos unseen in US history.

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There is always money for bombs.

As unpredictable as Trump is, I think he’d wait until the end of his term before any plans to cut and run, same as Afghanistan, so it doesn’t look like it’s his problem and doesn’t become something he has to deal with.

Europe will be fine, Russia has broken itself on Ukraine, and there’s been plans for closer European defence policy for years that only failed to materialise because NATO and US promises.

We all know Russia, if it accepts a peace deal, will only use the time to rearm and rebuild to go again, and promises not to ‘join’ NATO don’t mean they can’t form other pacts with member nations.

I just don’t think Russia would make a deal anyway, so it’s a moot point. Putin is too far gone on sunk costs, if he was about making a deal he’d have done it years ago when he had to fall back and regroup.

US doesn't have the capacity to support that many wars, we logistically cannot do it and Israel has far more support throughout this administration. Putin is not an idiot he recognizes his own situation, they have already signaled that they want a deal. They are going to ramp up to gain as much territory as possible to freeze the current lines. Putin could not make a deal years ago the Biden administration didn't want a deal they wanted Russia to give up everything and fall back.

I am a cynic by nature so I admire your positivity and hope that's needed now more than ever.