Russian invasion of Ukraine

[PhaelixWW]

how many patriot missiles and artillery shells does the EU produce?

Is there anything to stop US allies in the EU from buying those missiles and shells from the US and then giving them to Ukraine?

We're not really sending anything to Ukraine that wouldn't be available for purchase from our allies.

[Iphie]

Is there anything to stop US allies in the EU from buying those missiles and shells from the US and then giving them to Ukraine?

We're not really sending anything to Ukraine that wouldn't be available for purchase from our allies.

Well, there's those rules which state that if you want to re-export you need the manufacturing country's permission. It's silly, and stupid in this case but there are legitimate reasons to do so.

[PhaelixWW]

Well, there's those rules which state that if you want to re-export you need the manufacturing country's permission. It's silly, and stupid in this case but there are legitimate reasons to do so.

Well, I welcome the GoP or Trump trying to justify denying that influx of money into the US economy, since it's not coming from the taxpayers.

Honestly, I can't see anyone turning it away.

[Elenos]

Is there anything to stop US allies in the EU from buying those missiles and shells from the US and then giving them to Ukraine?

We're not really sending anything to Ukraine that wouldn't be available for purchase from our allies.

Yeah there is.

The EU's own unwillingness to spend enough money on defense or Ukraine aid. Pledging money is not the same as spending it. I understand it's a common argument to make that "the EU will just cover it". Will it now? Press 'X' to doubt.

Especially given the situation in the French parliament AND the fall of the German coalition. I really wonder how much defense aid spending will even pass through France's parliament.

[PhaelixWW]

Yeah there is.

The EU's own unwillingness to spend enough money on defense or Ukraine aid.

So... no.

Thanks for agreeing.

[Mafic]

Israel is bombing / at war with Gaza, the West Bank, Syria, Yemen and invading Lebanon. You can look it up I think I read it on war on the rocks but not sure, the US simply doesn't have the production to manage both wars and keep our own insane required supplies.

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There is very little support for Ukraine within the republican base.

The US can not keep up production in a peer to peer war for its own military. supplying Israel and then Ukraine. So, it is not possible even if the US shifted to a war time industrial footing like Russia has done already. Like I have said before Germany is the only country that can pull it off but there has to be will power from the German government and support from the German people.

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That won’t actually end the war, for one. Ukraine has allies beyond the US, and they have every reason to keep fighting.

Ukraine keeps fighting an offensive war more so from the advice of US military command more so than Europe. European countries want Ukraine to fight a more defensive war which is the difference. A defensive war would require less resources while forcing Russia to expand more resources which would work to Ukraine's advantage.

[Elenos]

So... no.

Thanks for agreeing.

I mean you're right about it I'm just pointing out that on a practical level the EU won't do it.

Like I swear I read a lot off puff pieces about how the EU will protect Ukraine when I'm looking at France and Germany, without which nothing happens in the EU, and thinking to myself...'you sure the EU will?'

[PhaelixWW]

I mean you're right about it I'm just pointing out that on a practical level the EU won't do it.

Like I swear I read a lot off puff pieces about how the EU will protect Ukraine when I'm looking at France and Germany, without which nothing happens in the EU, and thinking to myself...'you sure the EU will?'

I'm not sure they will, but I'm not sure they won't, either.

With the US taking the lead in aid, especially in regards to military aid, they've been able to sit back a bit. But this war is, first and foremost, a European problem, despite its global ramifications. The EU know that they're much closer to the point of contact, and that may make them step up a bit.

Think about what happens if Trump follows through on the US leaving NATO. What does that do to the power disparity between NATO countries and Russia? How secure will those countries feel if the US leaves NATO and also stops supplying Ukraine's fight against Russia?

Yeah, I think they'll have to do some really serious thinking about upping their aid to Ukraine in light of the harsh new reality.

[alach]

The really unfortuate part here is the timing. Ukraine just needs a little more time to hold out.
As Corvus pointed out, the russian economy is in dire straights, and the reckoning will come soon.
From the ISW;

The Kremlin's recent economic policies indicate that the Russian economy will likely face significant challenges in 2025 and that Russian President Vladimir Putin is worried about Russia's economic stability in the long term. The Kremlin recently adopted several policies that aim to cut Russian government spending on wounded Russian servicemen, combat inflation, and address long-term demographic problems such as low birth rates and labor shortages. These policies demonstrate that the Russian economy is not as resilient to Western sanctions, monetary constraints, and the cost of the war effort as the Russian government postures. These policies also demonstrate that the Kremlin will not be able to sustain the protracted war effort for years and decades to come while shielding Russian society from economic challenges. Consistent Western and international support for Ukraine's resistance on the battlefield will further exacerbate Russia's economic problems.

Of course it won't matter if putin wins, that land he has stolen is rich with resources, enough to fill his war chests for the next time and for more troops, soon he will have russia's victims fighting on their behalf;
Russia’s war machine is trying to turn Ukrainian teenagers into soldiers

Russian forces deported Bohdan Yermokhin from the occupied Ukrainian city of Mariupol in the spring of 2022, flew him to Moscow on a government plane and placed him into a foster family. He was sent to a patriotic camp near the capital where flag-waving staff praised Russian President Vladimir Putin and tried to teach him nationalistic songs.

The Ukrainian teenager was given a Russian passport and sent to a Russian school. And then, in the fall of 2023, not long before his 18th birthday, he received a summons from a Russian military recruitment office.

Yermokhin, who’s now back in Ukraine and recovering from his ordeal in Kyiv, told CNN he believed this was the last step in Russia’s attempt to bully him into submission – a bid to sign him up as a soldier to fight against his own people.

[Elenos]

Think about what happens if Trump follows through on the US leaving NATO. What does that do to the power disparity between NATO countries and Russia? How secure will those countries feel if the US leaves NATO and also stops supplying Ukraine's fight against Russia?

Yeah, I think they'll have to do some really serious thinking about upping their aid to Ukraine in light of the harsh new reality.

The harsh reality on that subject is that Eastern Europe will do everything it can to ensure Russia won't steamroll us. That's why Poland is spending almost 5% of it's GDP on defense, why Romania is at 2.5% and probably to go over 3%, why every Baltic nation is higher than 3%. Hell even Hungary and Slovakia are over 2%.

But without France, Germany, Spain, Italy and Netherlands doing the same and having no desire to do the same, and they aren't regardless of what they say on paper, there's only so much we can do.

[Mayhem]

Yeah there is.

The EU's own unwillingness to spend enough money on defense or Ukraine aid. Pledging money is not the same as spending it. I understand it's a common argument to make that "the EU will just cover it". Will it now? Press 'X' to doubt.

Especially given the situation in the French parliament AND the fall of the German coalition. I really wonder how much defense aid spending will even pass through France's parliament.

EU and EU-members combined sent more aid to Ukraine than the US already. What are you talking about?

[PhaelixWW]

The harsh reality on that subject is that Eastern Europe will do everything it can to ensure Russia won't steamroll us. That's why Poland is spending almost 5% of it's GDP on defense, why Romania is at 2.5% and probably to go over 3%, why every Baltic nation is higher than 3%. Hell even Hungary and Slovakia are over 2%.

But without France, Germany, Spain, Italy and Netherlands doing the same and having no desire to do the same, and they aren't regardless of what they say on paper, there's only so much we can do.

To be fair, my criticism wasn't aimed primarily at the Baltic states. I think you're right in that the rest of the NATO countries have felt less pressure to follow through on that aid, but without the US to bolster NATO as a whole, the pressure would be even higher.

Especially considering those Baltic states are members of NATO. If the US left NATO, I guarantee that the countries you mentioned would suddenly feel less secure and Putin would push the redline even further. He'd still be stupid to attack a NATO country, but... well... that's no guarantee he wouldn't. He has to know that a different US president in 4 years might think and act differently.

More to the point, the people of France, Spain, Germany, etc. would probably start worrying about it more, too, which would make it an easier sell to electorate by politicians.

[alach]

Speaking of Europe stepping/not stepping up.

Scholz Speaks To Putin About Ukraine War, Drawing Concern From Kyiv

Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin by telephone on November 15, urging the Kremlin leader to end the war against Ukraine and negotiate with Kyiv for a "just and lasting peace," the chancellor's office said.

But the first direct conversation in nearly two years between the German and Russian leaders elicited a warning from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who said Scholz's call was a "Pandora's box" that could help Putin "ease his isolation, Russia's isolation, and engage in conventional negotiations that won't end in anything."

Zelenskiy said such empty exchanges are "exactly what Putin has been wanting for a long time" as the 2 1/2-year-old full-scale invasion grinds on.

Also, lets not forget that north korea is now involved, which means parts of Asia are now involved. That probably means help from South Korea. Im just saying in case america does pull out, Ukraine will have help coming from there as well, along with all the other allies. Still nothing to compared to the military and economic power of the states but its something.

[PhaelixWW]

Also, lets not forget that north korea is now involved, which means parts of Asia are now involved. That probably means help from South Korea. Im just saying in case america does pull out, Ukraine will have help coming from there as well, along with all the other allies. Still nothing to compared to the military and economic power of the states but its something.

It's entirely possible that Ukraine could hold out for the next 4 years until the next US election, assuming the Russian economy doesn't implode before then.

Hard to believe it's closing in on 3 years since the invasion began.

[Jessicka]

Speaking of Europe stepping/not stepping up.

Scholz Speaks To Putin About Ukraine War, Drawing Concern From Kyiv


Also, lets not forget that north korea is now involved, which means parts of Asia are now involved. That probably means help from South Korea. Im just saying in case america does pull out, Ukraine will have help coming from there as well, along with all the other allies. Still nothing to compared to the military and economic power of the states but its something.

I don’t see how this is anyway a lost effort. It either brings him to the table and shortens the war, or shows how intractable he is and that there is no negotiation.

[alach]

It's entirely possible that Ukraine could hold out for the next 4 years until the next US election, assuming the Russian economy doesn't implode before then.

Hard to believe it's closing in on 3 years since the invasion began.

It will be rough for sure, russia has seriously battered and bruised Ukraines energy sector and infrastructure, along with everything else, but it would be possible as long as they continue to get financial assistance. Im not positive but Im pretty sure the EU signed like a 5-year funding deal with Ukraine last year.

[Gaidax]

All Ukraine can do now is try to hold whatever it has for next 2-3 months and then hope it won't get fucked too much with the upcoming armistice or whatever it will be called. If Ukraine is lucky all it will have to agree to is temporarily losing Donbass and Crimea only in an armistice.

People can cope all they want, but the reality is the moment US pulls the $$ out that will be the end of the war for a few years at least.

Europe is neither willing nor capable of plugging up the gap US pulling out will leave, they can't afford it politically for the same reason Trump swept US - people have a hard time putting bread on the table in the last few years, last thing they would approve of is tossing wheelbarrows of money into Ukrainian black hole.

[alach]

All Ukraine can do now is try to hold whatever it has for next 2-3 months and then hope it won't get fucked too much with the upcoming armistice or whatever it will be called. If Ukraine is lucky all it will have to agree to is temporarily losing Donbass and Crimea only in an armistice.

People can cope all they want, but the reality is the moment US pulls the $$ out that will be the end of the war for a few years at least.

Europe is neither willing nor capable of plugging up the gap US pulling out will leave, they can't afford it politically for the same reason Trump swept US - people have a hard time putting bread on the table in the last few years, last thing they would approve of is tossing wheelbarrows of money into Ukrainian black hole.

Hey, been meaning to ask. Why doesnt Isreal help Ukraine? Iran is helping russia and you hate iran right? Maybe send some assistance to Ukraine to help fight the evil iranians. Ukraine sure could use some of that sweet iron dome action.

[PhaelixWW]

All Ukraine can do now is try to hold whatever it has for next 2-3 months and then hope it won't get fucked too much with the upcoming armistice or whatever it will be called. If Ukraine is lucky all it will have to agree to is temporarily losing Donbass and Crimea only in an armistice.

People can cope all they want, but the reality is the moment US pulls the $$ out that will be the end of the war for a few years at least.

Europe is neither willing nor capable of plugging up the gap US pulling out will leave, they can't afford it politically for the same reason Trump swept US - people have a hard time putting bread on the table in the last few years, last thing they would approve of is tossing wheelbarrows of money into Ukrainian black hole.

More bullshit narrative.

There will be no armistice in 2-3 months.

Trump did not "sweep" the US.

Your ignorance is showing.

[Gaidax]

Hey, been meaning to ask. Why doesnt Isreal help Ukraine? Iran is helping russia and you hate iran right? Maybe send some assistance to Ukraine to help fight the evil iranians. Ukraine sure could use some of that sweet iron dome action.

a. We're kinda busy and we need all Iron Domes we have ourselves if you did not notice.
b. We're helping a lot more than most by keeping Iran busy. If all the goodies Hezbos and Hamas got from Iran would go to Russia instead - Ukraine would be in far more shit than it is now.

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More bullshit narrative.

There will be no armistice in 2-3 months.

Trump did not "sweep" the US.

Your ignorance is showing.

Ah yes Trump did not sweep US copium. He did not get supermajority in Senate.

That's just hilarious. Mark my words, war in Ukraine will be paused in about half a year from now at most. It will end with a temporary armistice, and it will happen because Ukraine will have no choice left but to accept.