Russian invasion of Ukraine

[PhaelixWW]

I'm pretty sure they haven't - there is no legal basis for it yet.

The ship's been detained by the Navy. I feel like there can't be a whole lot of ground between the legal bases for detainment and boarding.

[Iphie]

That's really just a matter of semantics so they don't have to do anything. It was a ballistic missile capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads. That it could only hits parts of Europe and not the US should be irrelevant.


And while all that was going on, the ruble has fallen to be less than a US cent. Despite spending billions of dollars propping it up, it's value has been falling for the last few months back to where it was when they started trying to save it back at the start of the war.

No, come on now, the difference is significant an ICBM can reach further. Besides russia says the same. (now I know we don't trust russia but can we at least agree that we should use words as the are supposed to be used?)

If you want to get really into semantics: Every ballistic missile with a range of 2-300 km can be used intercontinental. Heck 100 km is enough. So yeah, it is important to use words as intended, not just say: "that's just semantics".

[PACOX]

I'm sure he has more up his sleeve for sure but ICBM just reeks of desperation, like he's losing badly and he's actually staring down the barrel of launching actual nukes which he knows results in mutually assured destruction. All over a few hundred kilometers of land in Ukraine.

Sure, devastating for Ukrainians if that happens, but Putler is throwing all his bullshit at Ukraine and still losing badly.

It's not a threat to nuke its flexing capabilities to strike without a counter. The conflict in Gaza has shown us you can "nuke" a population without actually using nukes. Also don't need nukes if you can nullify all your opponents defenses. Its escalation because Putin is in his feelings due to Ukraine having long range missiles. It's tit for tat posturing. Russia has always had a large arsenal of ballistic missile, using them on Ukraine would be a "waste". They want to feign being having the moral high ground and that they are only using their missiles because of outside meddling.


Unfortunately for Ukraine, the incoming US administration would definitely see this escalation as a reason to limit weapon transfers to Ukraine.


If Russia does ever use nukes they will be low yield "tactical nukes". It will communicated via back channels before hand and not expected to illicit the response we've seen in movies - in other words it's not expected that other nuclear nations would retaliate.

The world has failed Ukraine and a lot of warhawks would love for low yield nukes to be permissable. The world (leaders and the strings that pull them) would tell Ukraine to stand down before starting a potential nuclear exchange with Russia.

[Gaidax]

There won't be any nukes, all Russia needs to do is simply wait a few months for Biden to be history and then another half a year give or take for Ukraine cut off to take hold for some sort of armistice.

There is 0 point for them to do meaningful escalation beside whatever they do now, except for some theatrics like this missile. Certainly not them "nooks".

[Yunru]

There won't be any nukes, all Russia needs to do is simply wait a few months for Biden to be history and then another half a year give or take for Ukraine cut off to take hold for some sort of armistice.

There is 0 point for them to do meaningful escalation beside whatever they do now, except for some theatrics like this missile. Certainly not them "nooks".

Or russa does some dumb stuff and another country declares war on them, or due to weakness (like China).

[Specialka]

Or russa does some dumb stuff and another country declares war on them, or due to weakness (like China).

China wants Taiwan first, maybe Russia will come later. So they won't go to war with Russia anytime soon.

[Gabriel]

Hopefully China is pissed at Russia for using a Chinese ship to cut the data cables.

[diller]

The ship's been detained by the Navy. I feel like there can't be a whole lot of ground between the legal bases for detainment and boarding.

Well, there is.

[PhaelixWW]

Well, there is.

Oh, really? Do tell, please.

[Corvus]

If pootie thought he just had to wait 6 months, he wouldn't be throwing even more men and irreplaceable equipment away at higher rates than at any time in the whole war.

[Poopymonster]

If pootie thought he just had to wait 6 months, he wouldn't be throwing even more men and irreplaceable equipment away at higher rates than at any time in the whole war.

Tin Foil Hat time.
In a few months, he'll be buying new and shiny toys from the Fascime.

[PhaelixWW]

Tin Foil Hat time.
In a few months, he'll be buying new and shiny toys from the Fascime.

Putin's money problems aren't magically solved right away even if he wins the war and takes over all of Ukraine.

[Gaidax]

Or russa does some dumb stuff and another country declares war on them, or due to weakness (like China).

China does not need to declare anything; it already practically owns Russia. Current situation is ideal for China.

China will make use of Russia when they eventually make a shot at Taiwan.

- - - Updated - - -

If pootie thought he just had to wait 6 months, he wouldn't be throwing even more men and irreplaceable equipment away at higher rates than at any time in the whole war.

He wants to make gains before Trump forces armistice on Ukraine. That is pretty obvious - the more he grabs, the more he keeps and his window for that is closing fast.

[Cthulhu 2020]

Russia fired a second ICBM at Ukraine and hit... *checks notes* Itself

[PhaelixWW]

Russia fired a second ICBM at Ukraine and hit... *checks notes* Itself

Source?

/10

[Iphie]

Source?

/10

I agree, source...but that seems so on point for how russia has been doing this entitre war...

[PhaelixWW]

And here I thought it would be "all nukes rusted, nothing will fly" crap.

It was apparently not some old ICBM that was fired, but a new, experimental not-quite-intercontinental ballistic missile instead.

Those old ICBMs could still be rusted, for all we know.

[Specialka]

Russia fired a second ICBM at Ukraine and hit... *checks notes* Itself

From what I read, the second one crashed in Ukraine but far from its target.

[diller]

Oh, really? Do tell, please.

You cannot board a ship from another nation in international waters - it's an international treaty.

https://www.britannica.com/topic/Law-of-the-Sea

(I think in this case the flag-bearing nation (China) would need to authorize it)

[PhaelixWW]

You cannot board a ship from another nation in international waters - it's an international treaty.

https://www.britannica.com/topic/Law-of-the-Sea

(I think in this case the flag-bearing nation (China) would need to authorize it)

No, there are exceptions for certain acts.

UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, Part VII

Article 110: Right of Visit

1. Except where acts of interference derive from powers conferred by treaty, a warship which encounters on the high seas a foreign ship, other than a ship entitled to complete immunity in accordance with articles 95 and 96, is not justified in boarding it unless there is reasonable ground for suspecting that:

(a) the ship is engaged in piracy;

(b) the ship is engaged in the slave trade;

(c) the ship is engaged in unauthorized broadcasting and the flag State of the warship has jurisdiction under article 109;

(d) the ship is without nationality; or

(e) though flying a foreign flag or refusing to show its flag, the ship is, in reality, of the same nationality as the warship.

2. In the cases provided for in paragraph 1, the warship may proceed to verify the ship's right to fly its flag. To this end, it may send a boat under the command of an officer to the suspected ship. If suspicion remains after the documents have been checked, it may proceed to a further examination on board the ship, which must be carried out with all possible consideration.

3. If the suspicions prove to be unfounded, and provided that the ship boarded has not committed any act justifying them, it shall be compensated for any loss or damage that may have been sustained.

4. These provisions apply mutatis mutandis to military aircraft.

5. These provisions also apply to any other duly authorized ships or aircraft clearly marked and identifiable as being on government service.



Article 101: Definition of piracy

Piracy consists of any of the following acts:

(a) any illegal acts of violence or detention, or any act of depredation, committed for private ends by the crew or the passengers of a private ship or a private aircraft, and directed:

(i) on the high seas, against another ship or aircraft, or against persons or property on board such ship or aircraft;

(ii) against a ship, aircraft, persons or property in a place outside the jurisdiction of any State;

(b) any act of voluntary participation in the operation of a ship or of an aircraft with knowledge of facts making it a pirate ship or aircraft;

(c) any act of inciting or of intentionally facilitating an act described in subparagraph (a) or (b).