Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Vampiregenesis]

I have been following the news closely and the West is trying to build a narrative where something big will happen in 5 years, to be precise, a Russian invasion against a NATO country or something related to Russian aggression. If you look at the details, they are all consistent with the date, it has to be in 5 years, no less, no more. The German Defense Minister said that Germany has to rearm to be ready by 2029 to stop Putin who is supposed to invade another country by then, Mark Rute also said that something terrible is waiting for us in 5 years and we have to spend more on defense to be prepared for it. Everyone agrees with the 2029 date. 2029 is also the date where democrats will be re-elected.

so, let's put all the pieces together:

1. Russia will do something big in 2029 and everyone has to spend more on defense to stop it.
2. Trump threatens harsher measures if the EU doesn't spend more on defense and doesn't buy more from the US
3. Nuclear shelters are built en masse in the US and EU

My theory about Trump is correct, I predicted that he would be elected because the system needed him to freeze the Ukraine war and spend the next 4 years adjusting the economy and military to be more compatible with wartime. 2022-2024 was the warm-up phase, the West learned from its mistakes on the Ukraine war and they realized they are not ready to topple Russia, so they will spend the next few years preparing for the final war against Russia which will happen in 5 years (Democrat re-election) and maybe they will take care of Iran (Russia supporter) before that happens or weaken it significantly.

Lastly, everyone with half a brain understands that Russia is not in a position to invade another country, they are too weak atm and they will still be in 5 years, the West wants to deliver the final blow to Russia before it recovers. The West will not accept living side by side with Russia for decades.

This is my prediction, WW3 will indeed happen in 5 years, be ready for the worst, enjoy peace while it lasts. They have decided that they want war and nothing will stop them from making that mistake. In the end, it's not their lives that will be disrupted or destroyed, so they don't care.

[Makabreska]

This is my prediction, WW3 will indeed happen in 5 years, be ready for the worst, enjoy peace while it lasts.

This time for sure, right?

[Shadowferal]

so, let's put all the pieces together:

You haven't been correct on anything of substance in any of your posts...I hope the SVR is paying you plenty of rubles for your bullshit.

[PhaelixWW]

2022-2024 was the warm-up phase, the West learned from its mistakes on the Ukraine war and they realized they are not ready to topple Russia, so they will spend the next few years preparing for the final war against Russia which will happen in 5 years (Democrat re-election) and maybe they will take care of Iran (Russia supporter) before that happens or weaken it significantly.

You're fucking joking, right?

Three years ago, Russia was considered a military superpower. Now they're a punchline.

This is my prediction, WW3 will indeed happen in 5 years, be ready for the worst, enjoy peace while it lasts. They have decided that they want war and nothing will stop them from making that mistake. In the end, it's not their lives that will be disrupted or destroyed, so they don't care.

I honestly can't believe anyone can be this clueless. You should stop gobbling up propaganda and maybe get a clearer picture of the situation.

Russia is the only aggressor here. They're literally marching their troops off to get killed in an meaningless invasion, and in doing so, are bulldozing their economy, as well. The West has done just fine not being intimidated by Russia in the past, and we have even less reason/inclination to precipitate WW3 than we did 3 years ago. We'll be perfectly satisfied continuing to set a defense against Russian aggression while waiting for their dictatorship to collapse under its own fragility.

[Gabriel]

I have been following the news closely and the West is trying to build a narrative where something big will happen in 5 years, to be precise, a Russian invasion against a NATO country or something related to Russian aggression. If you look at the details, they are all consistent with the date, it has to be in 5 years, no less, no more. The German Defense Minister said that Germany has to rearm to be ready by 2029 to stop Putin who is supposed to invade another country by then, Mark Rute also said that something terrible is waiting for us in 5 years and we have to spend more on defense to be prepared for it. Everyone agrees with the 2029 date. 2029 is also the date where democrats will be re-elected.

so, let's put all the pieces together:

1. Russia will do something big in 2029 and everyone has to spend more on defense to stop it.
2. Trump threatens harsher measures if the EU doesn't spend more on defense and doesn't buy more from the US
3. Nuclear shelters are built en masse in the US and EU

My theory about Trump is correct, I predicted that he would be elected because the system needed him to freeze the Ukraine war and spend the next 4 years adjusting the economy and military to be more compatible with wartime. 2022-2024 was the warm-up phase, the West learned from its mistakes on the Ukraine war and they realized they are not ready to topple Russia, so they will spend the next few years preparing for the final war against Russia which will happen in 5 years (Democrat re-election) and maybe they will take care of Iran (Russia supporter) before that happens or weaken it significantly.

Lastly, everyone with half a brain understands that Russia is not in a position to invade another country, they are too weak atm and they will still be in 5 years, the West wants to deliver the final blow to Russia before it recovers. The West will not accept living side by side with Russia for decades.

This is my prediction, WW3 will indeed happen in 5 years, be ready for the worst, enjoy peace while it lasts. They have decided that they want war and nothing will stop them from making that mistake. In the end, it's not their lives that will be disrupted or destroyed, so they don't care.

Take your meds.

[Gaidax]

I have been following the news closely and the West is trying to build a narrative where something big will happen in 5 years, to be precise, a Russian invasion against a NATO country or something related to Russian aggression. If you look at the details, they are all consistent with the date, it has to be in 5 years, no less, no more. The German Defense Minister said that Germany has to rearm to be ready by 2029 to stop Putin who is supposed to invade another country by then, Mark Rute also said that something terrible is waiting for us in 5 years and we have to spend more on defense to be prepared for it. Everyone agrees with the 2029 date. 2029 is also the date where democrats will be re-elected.

so, let's put all the pieces together:

1. Russia will do something big in 2029 and everyone has to spend more on defense to stop it.
2. Trump threatens harsher measures if the EU doesn't spend more on defense and doesn't buy more from the US
3. Nuclear shelters are built en masse in the US and EU

My theory about Trump is correct, I predicted that he would be elected because the system needed him to freeze the Ukraine war and spend the next 4 years adjusting the economy and military to be more compatible with wartime. 2022-2024 was the warm-up phase, the West learned from its mistakes on the Ukraine war and they realized they are not ready to topple Russia, so they will spend the next few years preparing for the final war against Russia which will happen in 5 years (Democrat re-election) and maybe they will take care of Iran (Russia supporter) before that happens or weaken it significantly.

Lastly, everyone with half a brain understands that Russia is not in a position to invade another country, they are too weak atm and they will still be in 5 years, the West wants to deliver the final blow to Russia before it recovers. The West will not accept living side by side with Russia for decades.

This is my prediction, WW3 will indeed happen in 5 years, be ready for the worst, enjoy peace while it lasts. They have decided that they want war and nothing will stop them from making that mistake. In the end, it's not their lives that will be disrupted or destroyed, so they don't care.

Not happening.

"West" is hardly a homogenous blob hivemind. The euphoria of 1990s and early 2000s has settled down, Europe won't be rushing into a war because US says so, especially not a high stakes war like vs Russia.

Neither is the other side is that united in thought and purpose. China, Russia, NK and Iran might have a partnership of convenience, but don't mistake it for friendship. It goes only as far as their own personal respective interests go. China won't be suiciding for the sake of Russia and neither Iran is ready to go full NK just yet.

The mess with Russia and CIS countries will continue, it is plausible that Russia might go for another adventure in another one of those countries eventually. But WW3 over that? Not happening. USSR was dissolved without any WW3, and it had far bigger balls than Russia ever did even in the decaying state it was in the 80s.

[Vampiregenesis]

You're fucking joking, right?

Three years ago, Russia was considered a military superpower. Now they're a punchline.



I honestly can't believe anyone can be this clueless. You should stop gobbling up propaganda and maybe get a clearer picture of the situation.

Russia is the only aggressor here. They're literally marching their troops off to get killed in an meaningless invasion, and in doing so, are bulldozing their economy, as well. The West has done just fine not being intimidated by Russia in the past, and we have even less reason/inclination to precipitate WW3 than we did 3 years ago. We'll be perfectly satisfied continuing to set a defense against Russian aggression while waiting for their dictatorship to collapse under its own fragility.

They don't collapse though, they keep getting more territory in Ukraine and they learn/improve. They are not strong enough to make another invasion but this is not the real problem of the west, the problem is that they are too big and they have weapons that can deliver a deadly damage to the west. Mark my words, they won't let this pass. You severely underestimate Russia. If they give Russia too many years then it will eventually recover but this time the experience from this war will be assimilated in the army and every other aspect of the society, it will be a much tougher opponent then, they don't want to get to this point that they can't handle it anymore.

[Santti]

They don't collapse though, they keep getting more territory in Ukraine and they learn/improve. They are not strong enough to make another invasion but this is not the real problem of the west, the problem is that they are too big and they have weapons that can deliver a deadly damage to the west. Mark my words, they won't let this pass. You severely underestimate Russia. If they give Russia too many years then it will eventually recover but this time the experience from this war will be assimilated in the army and every other aspect of the society, it will be a much tougher opponent then, they don't want to get to this point that they can't handle it anymore.

You've been watching too many movies, or played too many video games with big stronk Russia.

Touch grass.

[Shadowferal]

Pfft...Russia’s war machine is running on fumes as industry warns of bankruptcies and the Kremlin gets old tanks from movie studio

More evidence is piling up that Russia's military-industrial complex is nearing the brink after nearly three years of fighting in Ukraine.

President Vladimir Putin mobilized the economy for Russia's invasion, resulting in massive amounts of state funds for defense contractors along with low unemployment as working-age people build weapons in factories or serve on the front lines.

But that also stoked inflation, which has hit 9% and even forced Putin to acknowledge that it's "alarming." Russia's central has hiked its benchmark rate to 21% to rein in prices, but businesses are feeling the strain of all that monetary tightening.

In recent months, leaders in the defense industry and adjacent sectors that are critical to the war machine have sounded alarms.

The head of state arms giant RosTec warned that if rates stayed high, "then practically a majority of our enterprises will go bankrupt." The owner of Russian steel giant Severstal said it's more profitable for businesses to scale back operations and park their money in interest-bearing deposits. And the head of the Chelyabinsk Forge and Press Plant said at an economic forum that key areas of mechanical engineering could "collapse."

Meanwhile, other analysts have predicted that the Russian economy can't sustain Putin’s war on Ukraine past next year as the ability to replace battlefield losses with Cold War weapons runs out.

For example, the military is losing about 320 tank and artillery cannon barrels a month, while Russian factories can produce only 20 each month, forcing the Kremlin to dig into aging Soviet stockpiles. But that’s not enough, and Russia will run out of barrels sometime in 2025, according to a recent analysis in Foreign Policy magazine.

The situation was dire even last year, when Russia's largest movie studio donated about 50 tanks and armored vehicles from the 1950s that it had been using a props.

[alach]

I'm sensing echoes of YUPPIE here...

[Vampiregenesis]

Pfft...Russia’s war machine is running on fumes as industry warns of bankruptcies and the Kremlin gets old tanks from movie studio

More evidence is piling up that Russia's military-industrial complex is nearing the brink after nearly three years of fighting in Ukraine.

President Vladimir Putin mobilized the economy for Russia's invasion, resulting in massive amounts of state funds for defense contractors along with low unemployment as working-age people build weapons in factories or serve on the front lines.

But that also stoked inflation, which has hit 9% and even forced Putin to acknowledge that it's "alarming." Russia's central has hiked its benchmark rate to 21% to rein in prices, but businesses are feeling the strain of all that monetary tightening.

In recent months, leaders in the defense industry and adjacent sectors that are critical to the war machine have sounded alarms.

The head of state arms giant RosTec warned that if rates stayed high, "then practically a majority of our enterprises will go bankrupt." The owner of Russian steel giant Severstal said it's more profitable for businesses to scale back operations and park their money in interest-bearing deposits. And the head of the Chelyabinsk Forge and Press Plant said at an economic forum that key areas of mechanical engineering could "collapse."

Meanwhile, other analysts have predicted that the Russian economy can't sustain Putin’s war on Ukraine past next year as the ability to replace battlefield losses with Cold War weapons runs out.

For example, the military is losing about 320 tank and artillery cannon barrels a month, while Russian factories can produce only 20 each month, forcing the Kremlin to dig into aging Soviet stockpiles. But that’s not enough, and Russia will run out of barrels sometime in 2025, according to a recent analysis in Foreign Policy magazine.

The situation was dire even last year, when Russia's largest movie studio donated about 50 tanks and armored vehicles from the 1950s that it had been using a props.

The difference is that my predictions are based on things that are being said by top figures, this article could be west propaganda article no 2982939. They were saying that Russia is running out of rockets since the start of the war and we don't see this happening yet. There is no way to prove that the article is giving real information.

If Russia is collapsing then why the west is going paranoid about another Russian invasion and re-armanent?

It doesn't make sense.

[Shadowferal]

The difference is that my predictions are based on things that are being said by top figures...

Your "predictions" are empty-headed nonsense.

If Russia is collapsing then why the west is going paranoid about another Russian invasion and re-armanent?

I'm sure you read exactly what you wanted to read.

[Dezerte]

You don't get it, Putin is playing 5D chess.

And it's all the west's fault too.

[PhaelixWW]

Mark my words, they won't let this pass. You severely underestimate Russia.

Your words are duly marked. And ruthlessly mocked.

Hahaha.

Russia is a paper tiger, and the world knows it.

If they give Russia too many years then it will eventually recover but this time the experience from this war will be assimilated in the army and every other aspect of the society, it will be a much tougher opponent then...

Russia was already in population decline before they sent off a sizeable chunk of the current generation to die in Ukraine for nothing.

Also, I think it's quite obvious that the rest of the world is gaining experience from this war without falling into the meatgrinder.

...they don't want to get to this point that they can't handle it anymore.

Considering just how much war materiel Russia has lost in the last 3 years, even if we just twiddled our thumbs in the interim, the point of "not being able to handle Russia" would be decades away at a minimum.

Could they start a nuclear war? Yes, sure. But there's no way they could actually win against NATO. Thankfully, NATO is a defensive alliance and has no interest in an offensive campaign.

- - - Updated - - -

The difference is that my predictions are based on things that are being said by top figures...

Lulz. Go ahead. Wow us with your "top figures".

If Russia is collapsing then why the west is going paranoid about another Russian invasion and re-armanent?

It doesn't make sense.

Let's be clear. Russia invaded Georgia, and Russia invaded Ukraine. Twice. And Putin has been very blatant about his intention to rebuild the USSR. "The West" is the core of NATO, which stands in defense of several former Soviet countries, so it's hardly "paranoid" to exercise due prudence with the safety of those members.

[Shadowferal]

...were NATO to get involved...hmm.. Taken from comments made by Britain's Chief of the Defence Staff, Sir Tony Radakin;

NATO's combat air forces – which outnumber Russia's 3 to 1 – would quickly establish air superiority.
'NATO's maritime forces would bottle up the Russian Navy in the Barents and the Baltic, just as Ukraine pushed the Black Sea Fleet from Crimea. NATO has four times as many ships and three times as many submarines as Russia.'
He went on to note that NATO's collective defence budget is three-and-a-half times larger than the combined budgets of Russia and China, while its collective GDP is 20 times greater than Russia's.
NATO's vast pool of 3.5 million uniformed personnel on active duty, not to mention millions more reserve forces.
Ed Arnold, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told the Kyiv Independent: 'There is still an overwhelming ability by NATO for death and destruction... particularly in terms of long-range fire, anything launched from the fleet of F-35 (advanced jet fighters), for example.
'If they (Russia) fought how they fight now, in Ukraine, against a NATO force, they would be destroyed pretty quickly,' he added.

Going by the numbers, NATO's collective military is by far the world's most formidable fighting force.
The alliance's 32 countries have a combined military budget of well over $1 trillion, over three million active personnel, around three million reserve personnel and more than 700,000 troops in paramilitary forces.

Besides manpower, NATO countries also have over 14,000 tanks in their arsenals and tens of thousands more combat vehicles, 21,000 military aircraft and almost 2,000 naval vessels.

Three nuclear-armed nations are also members: the US, the UK and France.

Before the the invasion of Ukraine, Russia by comparison had just 350,000 active army soldiers, roughly 1 million active military personnel and about two million in reserve.

[PhaelixWW]

Russia has nowhere near 12k tanks left, lulz.

[Iphie]

Russia has nowhere near 12k tanks left, lulz.

If you count every rustbucket and monument...

Sidenote, Finland significantly punching above her weight always makes me happy.

[Endus]

The difference is that my predictions are based on things that are being said by top figures, this article could be west propaganda article no 2982939. They were saying that Russia is running out of rockets since the start of the war and we don't see this happening yet. There is no way to prove that the article is giving real information.

If Russia is collapsing then why the west is going paranoid about another Russian invasion and re-armanent?

It doesn't make sense.

Your argument doesn't make sense.

And there's a reason you're not quoting leaders directly so we can see the full context of what they actually said.

Here's what Rutte actually said a week ago;

"“With all this, our deterrence is good – for now. But it’s tomorrow I’m worried about,” he said, and warned that “we are not ready for what is coming our way in four to five years. Danger is moving towards us at full speed.”"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ays-nato-chief

So not "2029, for sure", but a general down-the-road sense given a reasonable time frame for Russia to settle their issues and recover. Because he doesn't expect Russia to just be peaceful after all this.

Germany's defense minister was speaking specifically about an analysis that predicted a 5-8 year recovery time for Russia, meaning 2029 was the earliest they predicted another major move by Russia;
https://www.politico.eu/article/germ...inister-warns/

So no. There's no "Russia has secret plans for 2029" thing going on. The point being made is just "Russia's in the shitter and won't recover before 2029 or so at the earliest, so we should be ready to slap them down when they try whatever they do next".

What's affected the EU the most out of the Ukraine issue is the economic chaos. Slapping down Russia for being a problem in the future is more about preserving peace than any actual fear of their own security. Russia can't even take Ukraine, why would anyone think they have a chance of even advancing to Germany's borders, let alone take Germany itself?

Also, "Defense Minister thinks Defense needs more spending" is the least surprising take possible.

[Santti]

Russia has nowhere near 12k tanks left, lulz.

Not to mention that it doesn't even specify what kind of equipment we are talking about here, just raw numbers. And that's just the beginning of what's wrong with such a picture. It doesn't tell the whole story, at all.

[Jastall]

Nukes make WW3 a virtual impossibility with their mere existence.

NATO can barely agree with each other on funding and sending hands-me-down equipment to Ukraine, they sure as fuck aren't sneakily gearing up for a massive and pointless offensive war behind the scenes.

Russia can't even capture half its next door neighbor's territory without expending a ton of men and materiel and tanking large parts of their economy, they sure aren't anywhere near ready to start provoking actual NATO response.

China doesn't care one bit about Russia save as 1) a convenient magnet for Western attention and 2) a cheap gas station. It has way bigger, Taiwan shaped problems.

Stop thinking the real world is like Call of Duty and go touch grass.